Workflow
生猪行业去产能
icon
Search documents
国投期货农产品日报-20250806
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 11:21
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean 1: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Corn: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Live Pigs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] - Eggs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - For the overall agricultural products market, various factors such as policy, weather, supply - demand, and tariffs are influencing the prices of different products, and each product has its own short - to - medium - term trends and uncertainties [2][3][4] - The prices of different agricultural products are affected by different factors, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors for each product, such as weather for soybeans, tariffs for soybeans and bean meal, and seasonal demand for oils [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean 1 - This Friday, there will be a competitive auction of domestic soybeans with a supply of 32,000 tons. Northeast soybean is in the pod - setting stage, and the weather is favorable for growth. The price difference between Bean 1 and Bean 2 continues to decline, and Bean 1 is weaker than imported soybeans. The decline of imported soybeans has slowed down and is in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to domestic soybean weather and policy [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The excellent rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period of history. The weather in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas is normal, and US soybeans are oscillating weakly. In China, Brazilian soybeans continue to arrive at ports, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the bean meal inventory has reached a high level this year. Before the tariff issue is clear, the bean meal market is in a state of oscillation [3] Bean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic bean oil is strong today, stronger than palm oil. There are uncertainties in the long - term supply of bean oil due to tariffs, and it is in the demand peak season in the fourth quarter. The medium - term US bean oil is likely to be oscillating neutral or slightly strong. The price difference between foreign and domestic bean oil may converge to zero or negative values, mainly through domestic price increases. A long - position strategy on dips is maintained for bean oil and palm oil, and palm oil may face a production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal is oscillating, with a slight increase in rapeseed meal and a slight decline in rapeseed oil. The Canadian rapeseed futures price continues to decline due to favorable weather. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import situation has not improved. The rapeseed meal benefits from the seasonal peak of aquatic feed. The short - term trend of rapeseed products is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to China - Canada economic and trade relations and domestic inventory changes [6] Corn - As of August 3, the excellent rate of US corn is 73%, and the price is still falling. In China, the auction of imported corn has been carried out 11 times since July, with a total of about 268,800 tons, and the transaction rate has been decreasing. Another auction of 19,930 tons will be held on August 8. The continuous supply of grain sources has affected market expectations, and the Dalian corn futures are weak. The new - season corn planting area may expand, and there is a high probability of a bumper harvest. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has declined slightly and remains weak. Except for the 09 contract, other far - month contracts have rebounded slightly with increasing positions. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased by 6.6% month - on - month, and the slaughter volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. The long - term focus is on when the industry's capacity reduction will be realized [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, and most provinces are still experiencing price declines. The 09 contract on the futures market has rebounded with significant position reduction as short - sellers take profits. Future attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the spot market. The egg price needs to decline further to achieve in - depth capacity reduction. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and the off - season contracts in the second half of this year are relatively weak, suggesting a reverse spread strategy on the futures market [9]