中粮家佳康 20251224 摘要 生猪行业去产能趋势持续，受反内卷政策推动，预计 2026 年下半年行 业景气度或现周期性拐点，为生猪板块带来潜在投资机会。 中粮家佳康 2025 年经营稳健，1-11 月出栏量同比增速超 50%，成本 持续改善，品牌生鲜业务增长显著，养殖业务高质量发展，品牌化战略 成效明显，为未来盈利增长奠定基础。 截至 2025 年 11 月，中粮家佳康累计出栏 546.5 万头，商品大猪销售 均价 13.65 元/公斤；生鲜业务累计销量 30 万吨，品牌收入占比 32.44%，亚麻籽产品获无抗认证后增速显著，并积极拓展电商渠道。 中粮家佳康优质种猪占比稳定在 80%以上，PSY 最高接近 29，MSY 接 近 27，基因育种试点区域 PSY 最高可达 33，显著提升生产效率指标， 为成本控制和盈利增长提供支持。 中粮家佳康合作养殖出栏占比 20%多，未来计划扩大放养规模以降低成 本，但会控制扩张速度以防范疫病风险，体现了稳健的经营策略。 中粮家佳康 2025 年上半年成本约 13 元/公斤，目前成本约为 13 元左 右，各区域成本差异显著缩小，优秀厂区成本已低于 11 元，降本措施 包 ...

研究所 需求预计回落 近端合约承压 ——国信期货生猪周报 2025年12月19日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度分析与展望 研究所 过去一周生猪现货震荡反弹，主要是消费阶段走强提振，期货先涨后跌，近月合约受现货涨幅不及预期影响而偏弱，3月合约 转强，期货曲线转为升水结构。基本面来看，从仔猪出生及饲料产销数据来看，到明年一季度末国内生猪供应总体呈现增加格 局；短期来看，集团场本周前半段出栏偏少，后半段出栏积极性提升；中小散出栏积极性较高，但从散户猪的出栏均重仍处于 较高水平来看，中小散的大猪销售压力尚未完全消化。从需求来看，冬至前后屠宰需求将会阶段性减弱，后期再次转旺需春节 前的备货需求启动，预计现货或有短期调整压力，但春节前的旺季尚未结束，下跌现货空间也有限。长期来看，生猪行业亏损 引导行业去产能的预期仍在，对远端合约形成一定的底部支撑。期货LH03较LH01升水，市场预期春节前提前出栏导致节后大 猪偏紧，后期关注均重及肥标猪差的验证情况，按仔猪数据预估节后供应压力依然较大。操作上，近端震荡偏弱对待。远端宽 幅震荡思路下关注逢低买入机会。 免责声明：本报告以投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector continues to experience a downturn, with the only agricultural ETF (159275) showing a decline of 0.51% as of the latest report [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) opened with a slight increase but then fluctuated downwards, currently priced at 0.976, reflecting a decrease of 0.005 [2]. - Key stocks in the sector, including biological companies and feed processing firms, have seen significant declines, with BioShares dropping over 4% and several others falling by more than 3% [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The pig farming industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction starting July 2025, with a reported decrease of 50,000 breeding sows from July to August this year [3]. - The industry is facing pressures from market conditions, disease risks, and regulatory policies, leading to an increased motivation for capacity reduction [4]. Group 3: Investment Insights - The current valuation of the agricultural and fishery sector is relatively low, with the agricultural ETF's underlying index showing a price-to-book ratio of 2.53, placing it in the 25th percentile over the past decade, indicating a favorable time for investment [3]. - The agricultural ETF (159275) tracks the CSI Agricultural Index, which includes major companies in the sector, with a concentration of about 40% in pig-related stocks [4].

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, animal husbandry, and fishery sector continues to show weakness, with the first agricultural ETF (159275) experiencing a decline of 1.5% by market close on October 20, 2023 [1][2] Market Performance - The agricultural ETF (159275) closed at 0.982, down 0.015 from the previous day, reflecting a 1.5% decrease [2] - Key stocks in the sector, including Haida Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Tianma Technology, saw significant declines, with Haida Group dropping over 6% and Juxing Agriculture falling over 4% [1][2] Industry Trends - The 14th World Pig Industry Expo opened on October 18, 2025, showcasing over 800 global enterprises and focusing on smart farming equipment and technology [1] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, along with five other departments, issued guidelines to strengthen modern agricultural service centers, enhancing support for feed production and animal disease prevention [1] Regulatory Environment - From May to September 2023, multiple meetings were held regarding pig farming, with policies aimed at reducing production by 1 million heads by the end of the year [3] - The pig farming industry is entering a phase of capacity reduction, with a reported decrease of 50,000 breeding sows from July to August 2023 [3] Valuation Insights - The agricultural and fishery sector is currently at a relatively low valuation level, with the agricultural ETF's underlying index price-to-book ratio at 2.59, placing it in the 31.64 percentile over the past decade [3] - This suggests a favorable configuration opportunity for long-term investments in the sector [3] Future Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to see a rise in price levels due to ongoing capacity reduction and regulatory policies [5] - The focus will be on improving quality and efficiency in the industry, with a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean 1: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Bean Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Corn: Not clearly defined, but symbol may imply a certain trend [1] - Live Pigs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] - Eggs: One star, representing a slightly bearish view with limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - For the overall agricultural products market, various factors such as policy, weather, supply - demand, and tariffs are influencing the prices of different products, and each product has its own short - to - medium - term trends and uncertainties [2][3][4] - The prices of different agricultural products are affected by different factors, and investors need to pay attention to specific factors for each product, such as weather for soybeans, tariffs for soybeans and bean meal, and seasonal demand for oils [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean 1 - This Friday, there will be a competitive auction of domestic soybeans with a supply of 32,000 tons. Northeast soybean is in the pod - setting stage, and the weather is favorable for growth. The price difference between Bean 1 and Bean 2 continues to decline, and Bean 1 is weaker than imported soybeans. The decline of imported soybeans has slowed down and is in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to domestic soybean weather and policy [2] Soybeans & Bean Meal - The excellent rate of US soybeans is at a high level in the same period of history. The weather in the next two weeks in the US soybean - producing areas is normal, and US soybeans are oscillating weakly. In China, Brazilian soybeans continue to arrive at ports, the oil mill crushing rate is stable, and the bean meal inventory has reached a high level this year. Before the tariff issue is clear, the bean meal market is in a state of oscillation [3] Bean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic bean oil is strong today, stronger than palm oil. There are uncertainties in the long - term supply of bean oil due to tariffs, and it is in the demand peak season in the fourth quarter. The medium - term US bean oil is likely to be oscillating neutral or slightly strong. The price difference between foreign and domestic bean oil may converge to zero or negative values, mainly through domestic price increases. A long - position strategy on dips is maintained for bean oil and palm oil, and palm oil may face a production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed meal is oscillating, with a slight increase in rapeseed meal and a slight decline in rapeseed oil. The Canadian rapeseed futures price continues to decline due to favorable weather. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the import situation has not improved. The rapeseed meal benefits from the seasonal peak of aquatic feed. The short - term trend of rapeseed products is still oscillating, and attention should be paid to China - Canada economic and trade relations and domestic inventory changes [6] Corn - As of August 3, the excellent rate of US corn is 73%, and the price is still falling. In China, the auction of imported corn has been carried out 11 times since July, with a total of about 268,800 tons, and the transaction rate has been decreasing. Another auction of 19,930 tons will be held on August 8. The continuous supply of grain sources has affected market expectations, and the Dalian corn futures are weak. The new - season corn planting area may expand, and there is a high probability of a bumper harvest. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs has declined slightly and remains weak. Except for the 09 contract, other far - month contracts have rebounded slightly with increasing positions. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in August has increased by 6.6% month - on - month, and the slaughter volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. The long - term focus is on when the industry's capacity reduction will be realized [8] Eggs - The spot price of eggs is weak, and most provinces are still experiencing price declines. The 09 contract on the futures market has rebounded with significant position reduction as short - sellers take profits. Future attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking demand before the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day and the impact of cold - storage eggs on the spot market. The egg price needs to decline further to achieve in - depth capacity reduction. The price in the first half of next year is more supported, and the off - season contracts in the second half of this year are relatively weak, suggesting a reverse spread strategy on the futures market [9]