港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 天立国际控股（ 01773 ） | | 证券研究报告 \n2024 年 10 月 21 日 | | | 投资评级 | | | 多元输出业务持续丰满 | 行业 非必需性消费 | ...

教育行业的我们的系列研究首先是为什么最近我们一直持续还是在强烈的去看好教育赛道首先给大家做一个简单的汇报从去年以来其实我们在A股相继去撰写 学大的深度的这个系列报告然后在港国就是持续撰写这个呃天地的这个相关的这个报告包括也做了很多交流哈就是说人家我们是非常看好目前第一个是消费行业 呃现在目前具有确定性增长而且现在有比较比较的我觉得优良的这样的这个性质在的是教育板块然后其实在目前来说的话如果说就赛道屏住来说的话我觉得在整个消费行业里面可能有很只有很少的或者说很难有出现类似于说像教育板块这样的这样的就说呃 消费力和消费意愿 教育行业来说的话我们觉得不管是属于消费意愿还是说居民实际上的消费力在这一块的一个留存的话我觉得都还是属于自由刚性的所以我们对于教育行业从去年以来的话持续就是开始进行一个精选客户的推荐那整体的效果应该说还是相对是不错的那教育行业我最我个人觉得就是说第一个它是属于民生的这么一个一个行业其实整体来看的话整个家庭不管说大家担心之前的 什么这个结婚的人口越来越少然后少子化的这么一个倾向但是其实从从这个2011年的这个单独二胎到2016年的全面二胎之后其实整个人口红利在如果说是在这个教育行业的话我觉得还是 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, effective September 10, 2024, which is expected to enhance its visibility and trading volume [1]. - The company has shown robust operational performance, with a 30% year-on-year increase in student enrollment, reaching approximately 130,000 students [1]. - The company is expanding its management services for schools, having signed contracts for eight managed schools this year, which is anticipated to create a second growth avenue [1]. - Revenue and profit have experienced significant growth, with FY2024H1 revenue reaching 1.645 billion RMB, a 73.8% increase year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 319 million RMB, up 70% [1]. - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing 3.847 million shares at HKD 3.35 per share, reflecting management's confidence in the company's long-term prospects [1]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.315 billion RMB, 4.536 billion RMB, and 6.014 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43.97%, 36.8%, and 32.6% respectively [3][4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 544 million RMB, 752 million RMB, and 1.029 billion RMB, with growth rates of 48.9%, 38.1%, and 36.8% respectively [3][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 17X, 12X, and 9X, which are below the average PE ratios of comparable companies [1][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in student enrollment for the 2024 autumn semester, with a total of approximately 130,000 students, a 30% increase from the previous year. The number of high school students served by the company has increased by 46% to about 54,000 [2][5] - The company has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which is expected to enhance its market visibility and investor interest [2] - The company is actively expanding its management services through partnerships, as evidenced by a recent agreement with local government entities for school management services [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Business Update - The company has successfully completed its enrollment for the 2024 autumn semester, with a significant increase in high school student numbers, indicating strong growth potential in its high school business [2][5] - The management services business is progressing faster than previously anticipated, with a plan to add 30-50 new segments annually, which is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [12][20] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 31.87 billion, 43.64 billion, and 59.18 billion yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit of 41.7% [20] - The company has also initiated a share buyback program, demonstrating confidence in its future growth prospects [20] Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand and educational quality, which is crucial for achieving its long-term goals, including a target of 100 students admitted to top universities by 2027 [9][20] - The growth in external market revenues from various business segments, including e-commerce and educational services, is expected to provide significant revenue elasticity [16][20]

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 托管新拓两校，天立国高首届毕业生靓丽 近期新签衢州、云浮托管学校 8 月 20 日，衢州市智造新城管委会、市教育局与天立教育合作办学签约仪 式举行；市教育局党委书记、局长季根寿，智造新城党工委副书记、管委 会常务副主任巫建民，衢江区政府党组成员、副区长徐东升等参加。 智造新城实验学校为公办九年一贯制学校，设计办学规模 54 班，其中小学 36 班，初中 18 班，可容纳学生 2520 名。学校于 2023 年 7 月开工建设， 2024 年 9 月将正式开学。 此次合作办学是继衢州市引入中央美院、北京十一学校等优质资源后，又 一个顶流基础教育品牌落地，也是智造新城高位嫁接优质资源，赋能产业 发展、增强发展吸引力、提高企业获得感关键一招。 我们认为，天立托管业务有利于借助积累的办学能力及教育资源，再次实 现政府/学生/家长/机构的多方共赢；完善业务架构，丰富收入来源，提升 业绩增长点。 天立首界国际高中课程毕业生 QS 排名 TOP50 录取率 70% 我们认为，天立国际高中项目的推出及出色表现，有利于为学生提供更多 更好的升学通道，在帮助学生完成学历进阶同时；丰富自身的业务类型及 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings [3] Core Views - Tianli International Holdings has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, which is expected to enhance its chances of being re-included in the Stock Connect program in September 2024, thereby improving market liquidity [1] - The company has a strong growth momentum in its for-profit high school business, achieving revenue of 2.32 billion yuan in FY23, a year-on-year increase of 161%, and a net profit of 330 million yuan, up 246% year-on-year [1] - The report forecasts net profits for FY24-26 to be 550 million, 810 million, and 1.11 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16X, 11X, and 8X, indicating significant valuation recovery potential [1] Financial Projections - Revenue (in million yuan): FY23: 2303, FY24E: 3455, FY25E: 4584, FY26E: 5997 [2] - Revenue growth rate: FY23: 160%, FY24E: 50%, FY25E: 33%, FY26E: 31% [2] - Net profit (in million yuan): FY23: 334, FY24E: 550, FY25E: 801, FY26E: 1109 [2] - EPS (in yuan): FY23: 0.16, FY24E: 0.26, FY25E: 0.38, FY26E: 0.52 [2] - PE ratios: FY23: 15.97, FY24E: 16.42, FY25E: 11.28, FY26E: 8.15 [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [2][9][10]. Core Views - The company has successfully transformed into a profitable high school service provider, leveraging its reputation and superior teaching resources to attract students, while extending its asset-light model [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of CNY 32.63 billion, CNY 44.93 billion, and CNY 57.35 billion for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 38%, and 28% [9][10][41]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of CNY 5.47 billion, CNY 7.09 billion, and CNY 8.88 billion for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 16, 12, and 10 times respectively [3][10][19]. Company Overview: Successful Transformation of a Private Education Leader - The company was a leading K12 private school group that transitioned to focus on profitable high school services after regulatory changes in 2021 [2][3]. - In FY24H1, the company reported revenue of CNY 16.45 billion, a 74% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 2.86 billion, up 66% year-on-year [19][41]. Industry Analysis: Demand Remains Rigid, Policies Gradually Clarified, High School Segment Expanding - The high school education sector is expected to benefit from an 8-9 year demographic dividend, with strong demand for education continuing [24][41]. - The private high school market is projected to grow from CNY 1,434 billion in 2024 to CNY 3,608 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 12.23% [41][42]. Competitive Advantages: Leading Reputation and Teaching Resources, Asset-Light Model Extending Boundaries - The company boasts a higher-than-average admission rate and strong teaching capabilities, supported by a well-established educational system and diverse training paths [43][44]. - The company currently operates over 50 schools, with more than 33 high school campuses, indicating significant room for capacity utilization improvement [48][49].

公司深度报告●教育 2024 年 06 月 21 日 以办学实力为基,营利性高中成长动力 充足 --天立国际控股深度报告 核心观点: 天立国际控股(1773) 推荐 (首次) 分析师 顾熹闽 :18916370173 :guximin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码:S0130522070001 ⚫ 国内领先的 K12 民办教育服务商,转型聚焦营利性高中业务。公司成立于 2002 年,早期学校以 K9 为主,曾荣获中国教育创 新示范单 位、中国教育行业 标杆集团等多项荣誉。2018 年赴港上市后,公司依托近二十年办学积累与良 好口碑推进异地扩 张,目前在全国拥有 50 所学校 ,覆 盖 16 个省份。在此期 间,公司依 托优质升学口 碑 ,成功于 2021 年民促法实施条例颁布后转型发展 营利性高中,FY23 公司实现 营收 23.2 亿元/同比+161%,超过 2020 年的历史 峰值;实现归母净利 3.3 亿元/同比+246%,恢复至 2020 年的 92%。 ⚫ 人口与政策共振,民办高中教育仍有广阔发展空间。尽 管中 国高 中阶 段在 校生人数可能最早于 2029 年达峰,但我 ...

Company Overview - Tianli International Holdings (01773 HK) is a leading private K-12 education group in China, focusing on high school education after the 2021 regulatory changes [1] - The company operates 33 self-owned high schools serving 37,000 high school students, with total K-12 student enrollment exceeding 100,000 [1] - FY2023 revenue reached RMB 2 3 billion (+160% YoY), with net profit of RMB 330 million (+246% YoY), demonstrating successful business transformation [1] Business Model - Core business focuses on high school education, supplemented by K-12 ancillary services (cafeteria, product sales, quality education courses, study tours) and school management services [1] - High school segment contributes 26% of total revenue, with K-12 ancillary services accounting for 24% and 21% respectively [2] - The company plans to add 3-5 new high schools annually, targeting 40-50 schools by 2027 with total high school enrollment reaching 60,000-80,000 students [2] Market Opportunity - Private high school market benefits from favorable policies and strong demand for diversified education paths [1] - The private high school penetration rate is expected to increase steadily, supported by demographic trends and delayed release of population dividend [1] - Market size for private high schools is projected to reach RMB 361 1 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 9 17% from 2023 [39] Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong brand and reputation through its "Six Establishments and One Achievement" curriculum system [51] - With 33 high schools across 16 provinces, the company has achieved nationwide coverage and scale [47] - The layered enrollment model and scholarship system help attract and retain top students [49] Financial Performance - FY2023 revenue reached RMB 2 303 billion (+160 4% YoY), with net profit of RMB 334 million (+245 8% YoY) [3] - High school utilization rate is currently 27%-37%, with potential to reach 100% by 2028 [2] - The company targets net profit of RMB 523/728/1,011 million for 2024-2026, representing a 39% CAGR [2] Growth Strategy - Focus on increasing high school utilization rates and expanding school network [2] - Develop K-12 ancillary services and explore school management services as new growth drivers [2] - Implement tuition fee increases of 5% annually, leveraging the growing proportion of students pursuing diversified education paths [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianli International Holdings (01773) with a target price of HKD 4.39 [1] Core Views - Tianli International Holdings has recently signed project-based cooperative education agreements with three institutions: Panzhihua No. 15 Middle School, Luanzhou Haiyang Education Group, and Quzhou Intelligent Manufacturing New City Experimental School [1] - The company is expanding its educational model, focusing on innovative talent cultivation, teacher training, and curriculum resource sharing [1] - Tianli's educational network now spans 18 provincial-level regions in China, serving over 100,000 students across nearly 60 schools [1] - The company has a strong track record in academic excellence, with a cumulative undergraduate enrollment rate exceeding 93% and some schools achieving 100% undergraduate enrollment rates [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to be RMB 3.2 billion in FY24, RMB 4.6 billion in FY25, and RMB 6.2 billion in FY26 [3] - Adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 640 million in FY24, RMB 900 million in FY25, and RMB 1.25 billion in FY26 [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 0.30 in FY24, RMB 0.42 in FY25, and RMB 0.58 in FY26 [3] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 14X for FY24, 10X for FY25, and 7X for FY26 [3] Educational Model and Achievements - Tianli emphasizes teaching quality and diversified college entrance pathways, having cultivated hundreds of students admitted to top universities like Peking University, Tsinghua University, and global top 50 institutions [1] - The company has developed a unique "Six Establishments and One Achievement" curriculum system, integrating national compulsory courses, specialized courses, and elective courses tailored to students' individual talents [1][2] - In 2023, nearly 50 Tianli students won provincial or higher-level awards in academic competitions, with two students selected for national training teams [1] Expansion and Partnerships - The company is actively forming partnerships with local governments and educational institutions to establish high-quality schools, such as the Quzhou Intelligent Manufacturing New City Experimental School, which is a public school with a total investment of RMB 350 million [1] - Tianli's management and teaching teams are being deployed to new schools to ensure high-quality operations and academic performance [1]