Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - The current inventory replenishment cycle in the U.S. apparel industry is characterized by weak elasticity due to several factors, including K-shaped consumer spending, misalignment in brand recovery rhythms, and constraints faced by comprehensive sports brands [3][6]. - Despite the transition from inventory destocking to replenishment, the expected rebound in manufacturing performance and market response has not materialized as anticipated [6][19]. - The report forecasts limited replenishment elasticity in the near term, with potential improvements in terminal demand expected after the current interest rate cycle concludes [3][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the weak momentum in the current manufacturing replenishment cycle, noting that the U.S. apparel industry has transitioned to a phase of active replenishment after reducing inventory to healthy levels since Q1 2023 [6][17]. Analysis of Weak Replenishment Cycle - **Macro Perspective**: U.S. consumer spending is experiencing K-shaped differentiation, where high-income households support overall consumption while lower-income households face suppressed purchasing power and willingness to spend [7][32]. - **Brand Perspective**: The misalignment in recovery rhythms among brands has diluted overall replenishment elasticity, with brands like Adidas and Deckers already undergoing several quarters of replenishment without strong retail catalysts [7][30]. - **Industry Perspective**: The growth potential in the sports category is diminishing due to factors such as slowing penetration rates, reduced technological innovation, and diminishing returns from direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies [7][30]. Future Replenishment Elasticity Expectations - In the short term, historical inventory cycles suggest that mature brands may experience shorter replenishment periods, while growth-oriented brands could see longer cycles [8][19]. - The report indicates that after the current interest rate cycle, retail demand may improve, leading to a more resilient growth trajectory for top brands transitioning into replenishment phases [8][19]. - Recommended stocks include Crystal International and Shenzhou International, with a focus on companies like Wah Lee and Yue Yuen [8][19].

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the net profit forecast for Jiu Xing Holdings (01836) for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 16% and reduced the target price from HKD 18.2 to HKD 16.5, while maintaining a "Buy" rating due to the valuation not being overly high [1] - The sales for Jiu Xing in Q4 2025 increased by 0.8% year-on-year, which is below Goldman Sachs' expectation of 4%, with OEM sales remaining flat due to shipment delays and an average selling price declining by 0.4% year-on-year [1] - The management indicated that profit margins for the second half of 2025 will face multiple challenges, and it is expected that order channels will slow down in 2026 due to the ongoing impact of tariffs on the entire value chain [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the net profit forecast for Jiu Xing Holdings (01836) for 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 16% and reduced the target price from HKD 18.2 to HKD 16.5, while maintaining a "Buy" rating due to the valuation not being overly high [1] - The sales revenue for Jiu Xing in Q4 2025 increased by 0.8% year-on-year, which is below Goldman Sachs' expectation of 4%, with OEM sales remaining flat due to shipment delays and average selling prices declining by 0.4% year-on-year [1] - The management indicated that profit margins will face multiple challenges in the second half of 2025, and it is expected that order channels will slow down in 2026 due to the ongoing impact of tariffs on the entire value chain [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company's revenue grew by 0.8% year-on-year, with shipment volume remaining flat. The company is positioned for investment in 2026, maintaining its commitment to return value to shareholders [2][10]. - The company has faced initial challenges in increasing production capacity in Indonesia and the Philippines, but has made progress. Efficiency in the Indonesian factory is expected to improve, reaching approximately 95% by January 2026 [10]. - The company plans to return up to $60 million in additional cash to shareholders annually through share buybacks and special dividends, alongside maintaining a typical payout ratio of 70% for 2025-2026 [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: $1,545 million - 2025E: $1,568 million - 2026E: $1,567 million - 2027E: $1,661 million - Net profit estimates are: - 2024: $171 million - 2025E: $138 million - 2026E: $151 million - 2027E: $165 million - The company’s PE ratios are projected to be: - 2024: 9.30 - 2025E: 11.53 - 2026E: 10.54 - 2027E: 9.62 [4][12].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock index opened high but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.29% at 26,844.96 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.11% at 5,822.18 points, the National Enterprises Index down 0.5% at 9,220.81 points, and the Red Chip Index down 0.34% at 4,139.41 points [1] Company News - Tencent Holdings (00700.HK) repurchased 1.017 million shares for HKD 636 million at a price range of HKD 619-632 [2] - Xiaomi Group (01810.HK) repurchased 3.9 million shares for HKD 148 million at a price range of HKD 37.86-37.92 [3] - Six Fortune Group (00590.HK) reported a retail value increase of 26%, retail income increase of 17%, and same-store sales increase of 15% in Q3, exceeding expectations [3] - China Southern Airlines (01055.HK) reported a 11.89% increase in passenger capacity and a 19.28% increase in cargo capacity for December 2025 [6] Industry Insights - Tianfeng Securities noted that the Hong Kong stock market has a basis for short-term valuation recovery and sentiment improvement, but upward momentum may be constrained by high overseas interest rates [7] - The firm suggested a focus on technology and consumer sectors that are relatively undervalued [7] - According to Huatai Securities, the market is experiencing a shift towards a bullish sentiment, with historical data indicating a high probability of price increases following a period of panic [8] - Industry recommendations include prioritizing leading companies in the AI sector and exploring opportunities in insurance, banking, energy, and new consumption areas [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jiuxing Holdings (01836) experienced a decline in stock price despite reporting a slight increase in revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the full year [1][2] - Jiuxing Holdings reported an unaudited consolidated revenue of $38.86 million for Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a full-year revenue of $1.5678 billion, up 1.5% year-on-year [1] - The footwear manufacturing segment saw stable shipment volumes in Q4 2025, while annual shipments increased by approximately 3.8%, driven by strong order demand from new clients in the sports category [1] Group 2 - Daiwa downgraded Jiuxing Holdings' rating from "Buy" to "Hold" and reduced the target price from HKD 18 to HKD 15.8, citing performance issues due to shipment delays and ongoing efficiency problems [2] - The company faced a shipment delay of approximately 250,000 pairs of shoes to early 2026, which is expected to impact the net profit for 2025 by $2 million [2] - Daiwa forecasts Jiuxing Holdings' net profit for 2025 to be below $140 million, lower than the market expectation of $156 million, and predicts a net profit of $153 million for 2026, also below market expectations [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jiuxing Holdings (01836) has experienced a decline in stock price, dropping over 5% to 14.63 HKD, with a trading volume of 81.8273 million HKD [1] - Jiuxing Holdings reported a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in unaudited consolidated revenue for Q4 2025, reaching 38.86 million USD, and a 1.5% increase for the full year 2025, totaling 1.5678 billion USD [1] - The footwear manufacturing segment saw a stable shipment volume in Q4 2025 compared to the previous year, while the total annual shipment volume increased by approximately 3.8%, driven by strong order demand from new clients in the sports category [1] Group 2 - Daiwa downgraded Jiuxing Holdings' rating from "Buy" to "Hold," lowering the target price from 18 HKD to 15.8 HKD, citing delays in shipments and ongoing efficiency issues affecting Q4 performance [2] - The company faced a shipment delay of approximately 250,000 pairs of shoes to early 2026, which is expected to impact the net profit for 2025 by 2 million USD [2] - Net profit for 2025 is projected to be below 140 million USD, lower than the market expectation of 156 million USD, with 2026 net profit forecasted at 153 million USD, also below market expectations [2]

Major Events - Giant Bio (02367) received the Medical Device Registration Certificate from the National Medical Products Administration for its recombinant type I α1 collagen and sodium hyaluronate composite solution [1] - Jitu Express-W (01519) plans to subscribe for 226 million H shares of SF Holding and issue 822 million Class B shares to SF Holding [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) signed a cooperation and equity transfer agreement for the Shapingou Molybdenum Mine project [1] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) subsidiary signed an Investment Option Agreement with First Quantum for exploration cooperation in Kazakhstan's mining projects [1] - Derin Holdings (01709) received conditional approval from the CSRC for Derin Securities to provide virtual asset consulting services [1] - GAC Group (02238) subsidiary GAC Trumpchi received 100 million yuan in funding for industrial transformation and development [1] - Juteng International (03336) suspected of a cyber attack and has initiated a comprehensive investigation [1] Operating Performance - China Southern Airlines (01055) increased passenger capacity input by 11.89% year-on-year in December [1] - Air China (00753) reported a 10% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in December [1] - China Eastern Airlines (00670) saw a 7.61% year-on-year increase in passenger turnover in December [1] - China Metallurgical Group (01618) new contract amount for 2025 is 1,113.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year [1] - ZhongAn Online (06060) projected total original insurance premium income of approximately 35.643 billion yuan for 2025, an increase of 6.66% year-on-year [1] - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (01164) produced a total of 702.5 tons of natural uranium in the fourth quarter [1] - Jiuxing Holdings (01836) reported a 0.8% year-on-year increase in comprehensive income to 388.6 million USD in the fourth quarter [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) issued a profit warning, expecting annual net profit attributable to shareholders to be between 20 billion and 20.8 billion yuan, an increase of 47.80% to 53.71% year-on-year [1] - Chongqing Iron and Steel (01053) issued a profit warning, expecting a net loss of 2.5 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - Huiju Technology (01729) issued a profit warning, expecting annual net profit to increase by approximately 60% to 70% year-on-year [1]

格隆汇1月15日丨九兴控股(01836.HK)宣布，公司将于2026年3月19日(星期四)举行董事会会议，以(其中 包括)考虑及审议通过公司及其附属公司截至2025年12月31日止年度的全年业绩，及考虑派发末期股息 之建议。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準 確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產 生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 董事會會議通告 九興控股有限公司(「本公司」)董事(「董事」)會(「董事會」)宣佈，本公司將 於二零二六年三月十九日(星期四)舉行董事會會議，以(其中包括)考慮及審議通 過本公司及其附屬公司截至二零二五年十二月三十一日止年度的全年業績，及考 慮派發末期股息之建議。 於本公告日期，執行董事為陳立民先生、齊樂人先生、 Gillman Charles Christopher 先生及 蔣以民先生；及獨立非執行董事為 Bolliger Peter 先生、陳富強先生， BBS 、游朝堂先生、 尹倩儀女士及馬慧凡女士。 * 僅供識別 承董事會命 九興控股有限公司 主席 陳立民 香港，二零二六年一月十五日 ...