Core Viewpoint - Citic Lyon has raised the target price for Samsonite (01910) by 4.8%, from HKD 21 to HKD 22, maintaining a strong "outperform" rating, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential [1] Group 1: Financial Forecasts - Citic Lyon has increased its sales forecasts for the company for the fiscal years 2025-2027 by 2-3% and adjusted net profit forecasts by 2-10%, primarily due to improved outlook for the second half of 2025 [1] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be 16.4%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, while it is expected to reach 17.1% in fiscal year 2026, with sales returning to a 3% growth [1] Group 2: Recent Performance and Outlook - In the third quarter, the company's sales decreased by 1.3% year-on-year to USD 873 million, but all regions and brands recorded sequential growth [1] - Sales turned positive from August to October, with a continued positive trend from November to the present [1] - The Chinese market outperformed expectations in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, aligning with Citic Lyon's prior expectations, and management is confident about sequential improvement in the fourth quarter [1] - Citic Lyon anticipates a slight year-on-year decline of 0.2% in sales for the fourth quarter, with an overall expected decline of 3% in annual sales [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities has raised the target price for Samsonite (01910) by 4.8%, from HKD 21 to HKD 22, maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects [1] Financial Forecasts - Sales forecasts for Samsonite for the fiscal years 2025-2027 have been increased by 2-3%, while net profit forecasts have been raised by 2-10%, primarily due to improved outlook for the second half of 2025 [1] - The adjusted EBITDA margin for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be 16.4%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, with an expected recovery to 17.1% in fiscal year 2026, alongside a return to 3% sales growth [1] Recent Performance - In the third quarter, Samsonite's sales decreased by 1.3% year-on-year to USD 873 million, but all regions and brands showed sequential growth [1] - Sales turned positive from August to October, with a continued positive trend observed from November to the present [1] Market Insights - The Chinese market outperformed expectations in the third quarter, with a year-on-year growth of 10%, aligning with Citic's prior forecasts, and management is optimistic about sequential improvement in the fourth quarter [1] - For the fourth quarter, sales are expected to decrease by 0.2% year-on-year, with an overall annual sales decline projected at 3% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Samsonite's sales have turned to positive growth from August to October, supported by a 4% increase in U.S. airline passenger volume in October, the highest increase this year, which aligns with management's optimistic outlook for Q4 [1] Group 1: Sales and Growth - Sales growth for Samsonite has shifted to positive from August to October [1] - October saw a 4% increase in U.S. airline passenger volume, marking the highest increase of the year [1] Group 2: Management Outlook - Management anticipates good profitability in Q4, despite high wholesale business comparisons from last year [1] - Optimized direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels are expected to effectively capture demand and alleviate supply-demand pressures [1] Group 3: Market and Brand Impact - The Asian market and Tumi brand are expected to drive improvements in gross margins [1] - The performance downturn cycle for Samsonite is projected to begin in Q2 to Q3 of 2024, influenced by global demand challenges from inflation and a decline in travel enthusiasm [1] Group 4: Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 24 for Samsonite and maintains an "Overweight" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reported that Samsonite (01910) experienced an 8% year-on-year decline in adjusted EBITDA for Q3, amounting to $143 million, which aligns with the bank's expectation of $139 million. The EBITDA margin was 16.3%, slightly above the forecasted 16.1% [1] Financial Performance - Net sales growth significantly slowed, with a year-on-year decline of 1% at constant exchange rates, an improvement from a 6% decline in Q2, partly due to a low base effect [1] - The company is trading at a forecasted P/E ratio of 10.2 times, which is still 1.3 standard deviations below its historical average [1] Management Insights - Management indicated that positive revenue momentum is expected to continue into October, with anticipated improvement in Q4 net sales growth despite a high base effect [1] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 59.6%, benefiting from a shift in product mix towards Tumi and direct sales channels, as well as effective measures to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [1] - Management is considering a dual listing next year in response to market conditions [1] Market Expectations - UBS anticipates that the market will react positively to the company's Q4 sales growth outlook and management's confidence in maintaining profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Samsonite (01910) experienced an 8% year-on-year decline in adjusted EBITDA for Q3, amounting to $143 million, which aligns with the bank's expectation of $139 million [1]. Financial Performance - The EBITDA margin was recorded at 16.3%, slightly above UBS's forecast of 16.1% [1]. - Net sales growth has significantly slowed, with a year-on-year decline of 1% at constant exchange rates, an improvement from a 6% decline in Q2, partly due to a low base effect [1]. Valuation and Market Position - Samsonite is currently trading at a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 times, which is still 1.3 standard deviations below its historical average [1]. - UBS is reviewing its investment rating and target price for Samsonite, which was previously set at "Neutral" with a target price of HKD 17.4 [1]. Management Outlook - Management indicated that positive revenue momentum is expected to continue into October, with an anticipated improvement in Q4 net sales growth despite a high base effect [1]. - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at 59.6%, benefiting from a shift in product mix towards Tumi and direct sales channels, as well as effective measures to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [1]. - Management is considering a dual listing next year in response to market conditions [1]. - UBS anticipates that the market will react positively to the company's Q4 sales growth outlook and management's confidence in maintaining profitability [1].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant valuation re-rating for Samsonite (01910) driven by a positive outlook for Q4, with sales growth turning positive from August to October [1] Group 1: Sales and Market Performance - Sales growth from August to October has turned positive, indicating a recovery in demand [1] - In October, US airline passenger volume increased by approximately 4%, marking the highest growth rate of the year [1] Group 2: Financial Outlook and Ratings - Despite a high wholesale base for Q4 2024, management remains optimistic about future performance [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on the stock with a target price of HKD 24 [1] Group 3: Profitability and Challenges - The gross margin remained strong in Q3 despite weak demand and tariff impacts, with improvements in supply chain and product management [1] - The group's performance decline began in Q2 and Q3 of 2024, influenced by inflation and a reversal in travel trends [1] - The third quarter of 2025 may signal the beginning of a new cycle for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite experienced a significant stock price increase, reaching a new high since March, following the release of its third-quarter financial results, which showed mixed performance against market expectations [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted net profit for the third quarter was $63.6 million, below the market estimate of $68.9 million [1] - Net sales amounted to $872.7 million, exceeding the forecast of $860.2 million [1] - Net profit increased by 11% to $73.5 million, with earnings per share at 5.3 cents [1] Market Reaction - The stock opened significantly higher, with an intraday increase of up to 25%, reaching a peak of HKD 20.96, resulting in a total market capitalization of HKD 28 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley described the third quarter as a bottoming out for Samsonite, indicating the start of a new cycle, and expressed an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter [1] - The firm upgraded its rating to "Overweight" with a target price of HKD 24 [1]

Core Insights - Samsonite's stock opened nearly 15% higher, reaching HKD 19.18 with a trading volume of HKD 22.97 million [1] Financial Performance - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, Samsonite reported a net sales of USD 2.534 billion, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year [1] - The profit attributable to equity holders was USD 192 million, down 18.6% compared to the previous year [1] - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved net sales of USD 873 million, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year [1] - The profit attributable to equity holders for the third quarter was USD 73.5 million, an increase of 11% year-on-year [1] Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the three months ending September 30, 2025, increased by 30 basis points to 59.6%, compared to 59.3% for the same period in 2024 [1] - This improvement in gross margin was primarily driven by the increased contribution from the TUMI brand and DTC channels [1]

Core Viewpoint - Samsonite (01910) experienced a significant stock price increase of nearly 15%, reaching HKD 19.18, following the release of its financial results for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, which showed a decline in net sales and profit [1] Financial Performance - The company reported net sales of USD 2.534 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders was USD 192 million, down 18.6% compared to the previous year [1] - For the third quarter alone, net sales were USD 873 million, showing a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year [1] - Profit attributable to equity holders for the third quarter was USD 73.5 million, reflecting an increase of 11% year-on-year [1] Gross Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the three months ending September 30, 2025, increased by 30 basis points to 59.6%, compared to 59.3% for the same period in 2024 [1] - This improvement in gross margin was primarily driven by the increased contribution from the TUMI brand and DTC channels to total net sales [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net sales decline of 1.3% for Q3, an improvement from a 5.2% decline in the first half of the year [37][38] - Gross margin improved to 59.6%, up 30 basis points year-over-year and 60 basis points from the previous quarter [7][46] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $143 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.3% [38][39] - Adjusted net income was reported at $64 million [39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Direct-to-consumer (D2C) sales increased by 3.5% period over period, with e-commerce sales up over 10% [4][5] - Non-travel sales grew by almost 7% in the quarter, representing a significant opportunity for the company [6][25] - Wholesale channel net sales declined by 4.5%, with traditional brick-and-mortar sales down around 7% [5][46] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America saw a decline of 10% in net sales, primarily due to cautious purchasing by wholesale customers [11][40] - Asia's net sales were roughly flat, with TUMI showing a significant improvement of 7.1% in Q3 [42][40] - Europe reported a 1% increase in sales, while Latin America grew by 1.2%, with potential double-digit growth if not for issues in Mexico [41][45] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on growth in travel and expanding its non-travel business, which has shown a 14% CAGR from 2020 to 2025 [25][19] - There is a strong emphasis on product innovation and enhancing advertising efforts to attract new customers [15][18] - The company plans to complete a dual listing in the U.S. by 2026 to enhance shareholder value [63][64] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in long-term growth despite current macroeconomic uncertainties and inflationary pressures [59][60] - Positive trends in constant currency sales growth were noted, with expectations for sequential improvement in Q4 [60][62] - The company is well-positioned to maintain strong gross margins and leverage its scale advantages [62][63] Other Important Information - The company has successfully refinanced its corporate debt, extending maturities and improving liquidity [55][56] - The DTC sales mix has increased to 42%, with e-commerce channels growing significantly [50][52] - The company has opened 43 net new stores over the past year, impacting G&A expenses [47][39] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the long-term growth prospects for the company? - The company expects to drive medium and long-term sales growth supported by strong product launches and advertising campaigns, despite current economic uncertainties [59][60] Question: How is the company managing its gross margins amid tariff pressures? - The company has successfully managed gross margins through supplier partnerships and product re-engineering, maintaining a strong gross margin profile [62][46] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding the dual listing? - The company is preparing for a dual listing in the U.S. by 2026, believing it will enhance shareholder value [63][64]