Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, particularly for new IPOs and sectors like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent subsidies from food delivery e-commerce platforms directly benefit coffee, tea, and advertising channels [8]. - The education sector remains robust, with leading institutions expanding market share and developing AI products for international education [3][19]. - The luxury goods sector is experiencing slight pressure from macroeconomic factors, but brands with strong innovation capabilities are still seeing growth [20]. - The coffee and tea industry is in a growth cycle, with coffee demand remaining strong, while tea faces short-term challenges due to increased competition [27]. - E-commerce is under pressure with slowing growth rates, but instant retail is emerging as a new battleground [31]. - The travel and OTA sectors are seeing limited impact from recent subsidies, with a focus on undervalued leading players [8]. - Music streaming platforms are identified as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with ongoing developments in subscription services [36]. - The virtual asset market is on an upward trend, supported by traditional financial institutions entering the space [40]. - The real estate market is under pressure, particularly in major cities, with a focus on opportunities in companies like Beike [8]. - The automotive service market is experiencing a decline, with a continued focus on ecosystem changes [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Education - The K12 education sector remains highly prosperous, with leading institutions reporting good summer enrollment progress and a focus on AI product development [3][19]. - The education index saw a decline of 1.78% during the reporting period, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index but underperforming other major indices [10]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector is slightly pressured by macroeconomic factors, with notable growth in brands with strong innovation [20]. - Key luxury stocks showed positive performance, with Samsonite and Prada increasing by 5.61% and 6.09% respectively [20]. 3. Coffee and Tea - The coffee sector remains in a growth cycle, with strong demand and a high frequency of consumption [27]. - The tea sector faces short-term challenges due to increased competition and supply growth [27]. 4. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector is experiencing a slowdown, with significant competition impacting profitability [31]. - Instant retail is becoming a new focus, with major platforms launching aggressive subsidy plans [31]. 5. Travel and OTA - The travel sector is seeing limited impact from subsidies, with a focus on undervalued leading players [8]. 6. Music Streaming - Music streaming platforms are identified as high-quality assets driven by domestic demand, with ongoing developments in subscription services [36]. 7. Virtual Assets - The virtual asset market is on an upward trend, with traditional financial institutions increasingly entering the space [40]. 8. Real Estate - The real estate market is under pressure, particularly in major cities, with a focus on opportunities in companies like Beike [8]. 9. Automotive Services - The automotive service market is experiencing a decline, with a continued focus on ecosystem changes [8].

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong performance yesterday but faced a quick decline today, with the Hang Seng Index closing down 0.61% [1] - UBS warned that the current short squeeze in the US stock market may be nearing its end, with their tracked short squeeze index rising 43% recently [1] - Apollo Global's chief economist predicts a slowdown in US GDP growth to 1.2% by 2025, with inflation remaining around 3% and unemployment potentially rising to 4.4% or higher [1] Economic Indicators - Concerns were raised by Jerome Powell regarding the reliability of economic data collected by US government agencies, suggesting potential overestimations due to budget cuts [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 94.2 billion (approximately RMB 86.13 billion) to support the currency, indicating liquidity tightening in the market [2] Sector Performance - The securities sector failed to maintain its upward momentum, with leading firms like Guotai Junan International seeing a drop of over 4% [3] - The Hong Kong government announced a new policy to promote digital assets, aiming to position the city as a global innovation hub in this field [3] - Consumer sectors are gaining attention, with the "Hong Kong Happy Shopping Festival" set to offer over HKD 1.9 billion in discounts, attracting significant participation from brands [5] Company Developments - Rongchang Bio announced a deal with VorBio for USD 125 million in cash and warrants, but the market reacted negatively, viewing the price as too low [4] - Li Ning's major shareholder has been increasing their stake, which is expected to support the company's operational stability [8] - Li Ning's revenue from running products is projected to grow by 25% in 2024, with core categories like running, basketball, and training accounting for 64% of retail revenue [9] Stock Movements - Stocks in the aviation sector are expected to rise due to increased ticket bookings for the summer travel season, with domestic bookings up about 5% year-on-year [7] - The military sector saw gains following comments from Trump regarding potential conflicts, with companies like China Shipbuilding Defense and AVIC rising over 6% and 1.68% respectively [6] - The weakening US dollar has led to a rise in commodity stocks, with companies like Minmetals Resources and China Hongqiao seeing increases of over 4% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a strong risk appetite and suggesting investment opportunities in various sectors, particularly in virtual assets and Web 3.0 [3][10]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a significant increase in risk appetite, with improved asset quality and trading volume, highlighting the value of asset trading platforms [3][10]. - There is a notable uptrend in multiple sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a particular focus on small and mid-cap stocks in media and consumer sectors [3][10]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of virtual assets and the Web 3.0 market, driven by stablecoin policies and recent IPOs, suggesting that more regulatory frameworks will emerge [3][10]. - The trend of Chinese companies returning to Hong Kong for IPOs is gaining momentum, with increased trading of companies like NetEase and Ctrip in the Hong Kong market [3][10]. - The valuation of overseas Chinese assets remains influenced by US-China trade relations and the broader economic environment, necessitating close monitoring of trade policies and domestic economic changes [3][10]. Summary by Sections Education - The K12 education sector maintains high growth, with leading institutions reporting over 20% revenue growth during the winter training period, and an increase in non-academic course retention rates [5][11]. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods market shows slight pressure due to macroeconomic factors, but brands that align with demand trends are performing well, with cautious price increases observed [5][20]. Coffee and Tea Drinks & OTA - Coffee and tea remain key categories for delivery platforms, with strong performance from major brands like Luckin Coffee, which continues to expand its store presence [5][25]. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector faces slight pressure, but major platforms like Alibaba and JD.com are expected to benefit from ongoing promotional activities [5][26]. Streaming Platforms - Music streaming platforms are viewed as high-quality internet assets, with sustained profitability driven by scale effects [5][34]. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The stablecoin leader Circle's IPO saw a 168% increase on its first day, marking a significant event in the virtual asset space [5][38]. Real Estate Transactions - Recent data shows a slight decline in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, suggesting a need for caution in the real estate market [5][50]. Automotive Services - The automotive aftermarket is under pressure, with traditional fuel vehicle service visits declining, while new energy vehicle service visits are increasing [5][45].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing pressure on its performance due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a projected revenue decline in Q2 and stable profit margins. However, there are positive signs in specific regions like India and strong growth for TUMI in Europe and China [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 7.3% year-on-year to $800 million, with a currency-neutral decline of 4.5%. The gross margin fell by 1 percentage point to 59.4%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 16%. Net profit dropped by 42.6% to $50 million, with a net profit margin of 6.1% [2]. - The company expects Q2 revenue to decline in the mid-single digits year-on-year, with profit levels remaining similar to Q1. The second half of the year is anticipated to have a lower base compared to the first half, but uncertainties remain high [2]. Regional Performance - Revenue changes by region in Q1 2025 were as follows: Asia -7%, North America -8%, Europe +4.4%, and Latin America 0%. North American revenue was impacted by early shipments, with a true decline of 5.2% when excluding this effect. China saw a 5% decline due to a high base, while India experienced a turnaround with a 2.6% increase [2]. - TUMI showed strong growth in Europe and China, with TUMI's revenue in China increasing by 10.9% due to new store openings. The company plans to open flagship stores in major cities [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company maintains a strong position as the world's largest luggage brand, with potential for long-term growth in the Asia-Pacific region. The dual listing overseas is expected to aid in valuation recovery. Profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are $254 million and $289 million, respectively, with a PE valuation of 15X for 2025, translating to a target price of HKD 20.29 per share [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure in Q1 2025 due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with a projected mid-single-digit decline in revenue and stable profit margins in Q2. However, revenue growth in India has turned positive, and TUMI is experiencing strong growth in Europe and China [3][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from $3,589 million in 2024 to $3,367 million in 2025, representing a -6% change. By 2026, revenue is expected to recover to $3,506 million, followed by $3,671 million in 2027 [9]. - Gross profit is forecasted to decrease from $2,152 million in 2024 to $2,003 million in 2025, with a slight recovery to $2,089 million in 2026 and $2,194 million in 2027 [9]. - Net profit is expected to drop significantly from $346 million in 2024 to $254 million in 2025, with a gradual increase to $289 million in 2026 and $345 million in 2027 [9]. - The report anticipates a PE ratio of 15x for 2025, translating to a target price of HKD 20.29 per share based on a USD to HKD exchange rate of 7.8 [10]. Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue changes by region were as follows: Asia -7%, North America -8%, Europe +4.4%, and Latin America 0%. Notably, North America experienced a decline of -5.2% when excluding the impact of early shipments [10]. - TUMI's revenue in Europe and China showed resilience, with growth rates of 11.1% and 10.9% respectively, driven by new store openings [10]. Valuation and Comparison - The report includes a comparison of the company's valuation with peers, indicating a PE of 7.8 for the company in 2025, which is competitive compared to other luxury brands [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a decrease of 4.5% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - The adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - Despite the short-term performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations, the company maintains confidence in its three premium brand assets and anticipates a successful listing in the US to enhance liquidity [5] Regional Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, revenue by region showed: - Asia: $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, with India showing a constant currency growth of 2.6% due to strategic adjustments, while South Korea and China experienced declines [2] - North America: $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a 5.2% decline after excluding the impact of wholesalers' early purchases in Q4 2024 [2] - Europe: $180 million, flat year-on-year, with a 4.4% increase on a constant currency basis, driven by increasing brand penetration [2] - Latin America: $50 million, down 10.3% year-on-year, flat on a constant currency basis [2] Brand Performance Summary - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025: - Samsonite: $410 million, down 7.4% year-on-year - TUMI: $190 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, showing relative resilience with constant currency growth in Asia, Europe, and Latin America [3] - American Tourister: $130 million, down 14.0% year-on-year [3] Channel Performance Summary - Revenue by channel in Q1 2025: - Wholesale: $490 million, down 8.9% year-on-year - DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) retail: $220 million, down 5.5% year-on-year - DTC e-commerce: $80 million, down 2.5% year-on-year [3] - The company opened 9 new stores (19 opened, 10 closed) to reach a total of 1,128 stores, demonstrating confidence in development despite weak retail conditions [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Q1 2025 gross margin was 59.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of higher-margin Asia sales [4] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin was 6.1%, down 3.6 percentage points, reflecting performance pressure from macroeconomic fluctuations [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $350 million, and $400 million [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9, 8, and 7 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Samsonite in Q1 2025 has shown a significant decline, with revenue and net profit both decreasing, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects and market confidence [1][4][10]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Samsonite reported revenue of $800 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a gross profit of $473 million, down 8.9%. The net profit fell sharply by 39.7% to $55 million [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q1 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1 percentage point compared to the previous year, while the adjusted EBITDA margin was 16%, down 2.8 percentage points [8]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the Asian market was $307 million, representing 38.5% of total revenue, down 9.7% year-on-year. North American revenue was $262 million, accounting for 32.8% of total revenue, down 8.3% [5][7]. - In contrast, the European market showed resilience, with revenue remaining flat at $176 million, and a 4.4% increase when adjusted for constant currency [6][7]. Market Reaction - Following the release of the Q1 report, Samsonite's stock price dropped significantly, closing at HKD 14.06, down 8.58% on May 14, and further declining to HKD 13.96 the next day [3][4]. - Major investment banks have reacted by adjusting their target prices for Samsonite, with Citigroup lowering its target from HKD 26 to HKD 19.7, while UBS slightly raised its target from HKD 15 to HKD 16, indicating mixed market sentiment [9][10]. Strategic Outlook - The company is pursuing a dual listing in the US, which is seen as a potential opportunity for value re-evaluation. However, the recent financial performance raises questions about the feasibility of this strategy [10]. - To mitigate external challenges, Samsonite has reduced marketing expenditures by 20% year-on-year, reflecting a proactive approach to address declining consumer confidence and sales [8].

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，鉴于在美国关税不确定性背景下消费情绪疲软，该行将新秀丽 (01910)2025年收入和净利润预测分别下调3%和12%至35.4亿美元和3.27亿美元;将2026年收入和净利润 预测分别下调4%和18%至37.5亿美元和3.48亿美元。该行下调目标价20%至20港元(对应11.5倍2025年市 盈率，较当前股价具备30%的上行空间)。鉴于公司持续的严格成本控制，该行维持"跑赢行业"评级。 当前股价对应8.8倍2025年和8.3倍2026年市盈率。 在业绩电话会议中，管理层指出：1)Tumi品牌在中国表现强劲。2)2Q25迄今为止的销售增速与1Q25相 似。3)管理层预计2Q25毛利率保持稳定，经调整EBITDA利润率略有改善。4)管理层表示，与其他消费 品相比，行李箱行业未见明显提前备货行为。5)截至1Q25，公司在美国销售的产品中有14%来自中国， 管理层预计到2025年底该比例将降至1%-5%。为应对潜在关税上调，公司拟采取多项举措。6)考虑到新 秀丽销售与全球客运量之间的历史相关性，管理层认为2025年全球旅客预计增长5%可能意味着行李箱 需求的增长潜力。7)杠杆及分红 ...

Group 1 - Samsonite's Q1 sales revenue decreased by 7.3% year-on-year, amounting to $797 million compared to $860 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - The gross profit was $473 million with a gross margin of 59.4%, down from 60.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in sales from the higher-margin Asian market [1] - The decline in consumer confidence in the North American market and changes in wholesale channels also negatively impacted performance, despite some brand growth in the European market [1] Group 2 - Uniqlo is set to open its first city flagship store in Southwest China on May 16, covering nearly 2,000 square meters and featuring exclusive Chengdu-themed products [2] - This expansion reflects Uniqlo's continued optimism in the Chinese market and aims to enhance its brand influence in the Southwest region [2] - The opening of new stores is expected to intensify competition in the local apparel retail market, prompting other brands to improve their product and service quality [2] Group 3 - iQIYI has launched a revenue-sharing cooperation model for new theatrical films starting May 13, allowing films to be released on its platform within 90 days of their theatrical debut [3] - This model provides more monetization options for theatrical films, particularly benefiting mid-tier and lower-tier films, and is expected to encourage more creators to engage in film production [3] - The introduction of the revenue-sharing model is anticipated to enhance content quality and audience feedback, thereby increasing the market competitiveness of films [3] Group 4 - Tianyuan Pet announced plans to acquire 89.71% of Guangzhou Taotong Technology through a combination of share issuance and cash payment [4] - The acquisition is expected to enhance Tianyuan Pet's business scope and overall competitiveness, opening new pathways for performance growth [4] - The integration of the pet industry with e-commerce and marketing is likely to deepen, and this acquisition may trigger a wave of industry consolidation [4]