[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/纺织与服装/服装与奢侈品 证券研究报告 新秀丽（1910）公司年报点评 2024年06月04日 [Table_InvestInfo] 盈利水平同期历史新高，债务杠杆 24Q1 投资评级 优于大市 维持 持续改善 股票数据 0[6Ta月b0le3_日S收to盘ck价In（fo港]元） 25.00 [投Ta资ble要_S点um：mary] 52周股价波动（港元） 19.50-30.80 总股本（百万股） 1461 总市值（百万港元） 36529  高基数下稳健增长，盈利水平创历史同期新高。24Q1收入8.6亿美元，在较 相关研究 高基数（23Q1较19Q1可比口径增速18.0%）下，实现货币中性增速4.1%。 [《Ta20b2le3_重R启ep分o红rtI，nf全o]年ebitdamargin升至 毛利率60.4%，为历史同期新高，同比提升2.4pct。Adj.EBITDA1.6亿美元， 19.3%》2024.03.21 Adj. EBITDAmargin 18.8%（同比+0.4pct），均创历史新高。 Adj.净利率 《再看新秀丽投资空间》2024.01.05 1 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call involves Samsonite, a company in the luggage and travel accessories industry [1] Key Points and Arguments - The call is hosted by Wang Xueyu, Chief of Investment Services at the hosting organization, with the participation of William Yu, the Investor Relations representative from Samsonite [1] Other Important Content - The call is structured to allow for a focused discussion, with participants initially muted to ensure a smooth communication flow [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 26.65, maintaining the rating for the next six months [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company, Samsonite (01910), is experiencing growth driven by its main brand and leadership in the Asian market. The recovery in leisure and business travel is a significant factor contributing to this growth [1]. - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of USD 860 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, and a net profit of USD 83 million, up 12.3% year-on-year. The revenue growth is attributed to increased marketing investments and capturing opportunities in the global market, especially in Asia [1]. - The report anticipates continued strong growth in Asian tourism in 2024, supported by the recovery of outbound travel from China [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue breakdown: Samsonite brand revenue was USD 440 million (up 3.7%, 51.2% of total), Tumi revenue was USD 194 million (down 0.3%, 22.5%), American Tourister revenue was USD 151 million (down 0.1%, 17.6%), and other revenues were USD 75 million (down 9.1%, 8.7%) [1]. - Regional revenue: Asia generated USD 340 million (up 3.3%), North America USD 285 million (up 0.3%), Europe USD 176 million (down 2.5%), and Latin America USD 59 million (up 0.2%) [1]. - Gross margin improved to 60.4%, up 2.4 percentage points, and net profit margin increased to 9.6%, up 1 percentage point [1]. Cost Management - The report notes an increase in sales expense ratio to 30% (up 2.4 percentage points), primarily due to depreciation of leased assets and increased store openings. Management expense ratio decreased to 7% (down 0.6 percentage points) due to strict cost management [1]. - Financial expense ratio decreased to 3.5% (down 1 percentage point), attributed to reduced non-cash expenses related to redeemable non-controlling interests and decreased foreign exchange losses [1]. Future Outlook - The company plans to invest 7.0% of net sales in marketing for 2024, focusing on product innovation and advertising to drive strong sales growth, particularly in the high-margin Asian region and Tumi brand [1]. - Adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are USD 4.114 billion, USD 4.542 billion, and USD 5.067 billion, with net profits of USD 480 million, USD 530 million, and USD 596 million respectively [1].

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The document does not specify a particular company or industry involved in the conference call Core Points and Arguments - The call begins with a standard greeting and acknowledgment of participants, indicating a formal setting for discussion [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - No additional content or insights are provided in the document [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue increased by 0.9% year-over-year, with a currency-neutral growth of 4% and same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 2.2% [2] - Gross profit margin (GPM) improved by 2.4 percentage points to 60.4%, and adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.8% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 18.8% year-over-year, and operating cash flow turned positive with a net inflow of $55 million [2] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue growth for Samsonite brand, Tumi, and American Tourister was currency-neutral year-over-year at 7%, 2%, and 3% respectively [2] - Tumi's performance is expected to improve in H2 2024 as inventory levels normalize, despite facing high base effects in Q1 and Q2 2023 [2] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue growth in different regions was as follows: Asia (+8%), North America (+0.3%), Europe (-0.5%), and Latin America (+18%) on a currency-neutral basis [2] - In mainland China, Q1 revenue grew by 23% year-over-year on a currency-neutral basis [2] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for revenue growth in Q2 2024 to be in the mid-to-high single digits year-over-year, with expectations for H2 to outperform H1 [2] - The company plans to maintain an advertising expense ratio of 7% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20% for the full year [2] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a strong growth trend in April 2024, particularly in Europe, and expects Q2 to show strong growth [2] - The company expressed satisfaction with performance in China, despite some weakness in Q2, and anticipates strong tourism demand to continue driving sales [2] Other Important Information - The company expects full-year revenue growth to be in the high single digits to low double digits [3] - The latest market capitalization is $42.2 billion, with Bloomberg consensus expecting an adjusted PE of 12x for 2024 [2] Q&A Session Summary Question: How does the company view future revenue growth? - Management sees strong growth in Q2 2024, with expectations for H2 to outperform H1, particularly in Europe [2] Question: What is the outlook for Asia and Tumi? - Tumi's performance is expected to improve in H2 2024, with strong growth anticipated across North America, Europe, and Asia [2] Question: How does the company view EBITDA margin performance and guidance? - The company expects overall EBITDA margin to improve in H2 2024, maintaining its guidance for the year [2] Question: Which regions are underperforming in the current consumer environment? - India is noted as a weak performer, while China is performing satisfactorily [2] Question: What is the company's approach to discount management and maintaining margins? - The company aims to balance sales growth with maintaining good profit margins and brand positioning [2] Question: What are the sales trends expected in different regions? - Europe is expected to see strong sales growth in Q2, while India faces significant promotional pressure [2]

Financial Performance - For the three months ended March 31, 2024, net sales were $859.6 million, an increase of 0.9% compared to $852.1 million for the same period in 2023, with a 4.1% increase when adjusted for constant currency[10]. - Gross profit for the same period was $519.5 million, up 5.0% from $494.5 million in the prior year, resulting in a gross margin of 60.4%, compared to 58.0% in 2023[10]. - Operating profit reported was $149.8 million, a 3.5% increase from $144.7 million year-over-year, with a 9.3% increase when adjusted for constant currency[10]. - Profit for the period was $90.5 million, reflecting a 7.8% increase from $83.9 million in the same quarter of 2023, with a 13.5% increase when adjusted for constant currency[10]. - Adjusted net income was $87.1 million, up 7.2% from $81.2 million in the previous year, with a 13.1% increase when adjusted for constant currency[7]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $161.2 million, a 3.1% increase from $156.4 million year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.8%[7]. - Basic earnings per share were $0.057, an increase of 11.6% from $0.051 in the same quarter of 2023[7]. - For the three months ended March 31, 2024, net profit attributable to equity holders was $82.9 million, an improvement of $9.1 million or 12.3% compared to $73.8 million in the same period last year[12]. - Adjusted net income for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was $87.1 million, up $5.9 million or 7.2% from $81.2 million, driven by improved net sales and gross margin[12]. - The company reported a diluted earnings per share of $0.056 for the three months ended March 31, 2024, compared to $0.051 in the same period last year[20]. - The profit for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was $90.5 million, an increase of $6.6 million or 7.8% from $83.9 million in the same period last year[72]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - Net sales for the three months ended March 31, 2024, were $859.6 million, compared to $852.1 million in the same period last year[20]. - Net sales by region showed that Asia accounted for $340.1 million (39.6%), North America $285.3 million (33.2%), Europe $175.5 million (20.4%), and Latin America $58.5 million (6.8%) for the three months ended March 31, 2024[33]. - The travel product category generated net sales of $558.3 million (64.9%), while the non-travel category generated $301.3 million (35.1%) for the three months ended March 31, 2024[40]. - The brand Samsonite reported a net sales increase of $15.6 million or 3.7%, with a 6.5% increase when adjusted for constant currency for the three months ended March 31, 2024[38]. - The company's Tumi brand reported a slight decrease in net sales of $0.5 million or 0.3%, but a 1.6% increase when adjusted for constant currency[38]. - The leisure product category saw a significant increase in net sales of $7.8 million or 9.6%, with a 19.2% increase when adjusted for constant currency[41]. - The European region experienced a slight decline in net sales of 2.5% compared to the previous year, reflecting challenges in that market[33]. - DTC channel net sales increased by $11.2 million or 3.7%, with a constant currency increase of 7.6%, reaching $319.1 million[45]. - DTC e-commerce sales increased by $5.8 million or 7.1%, reaching $87.0 million, with a constant currency increase of 11.0%[47]. - Sales in Germany for the three months ended March 31, 2024, decreased by $3.1 million or 12.5% compared to the same period in 2023[55]. - Sales in France decreased by $1.5 million or 8.8% year-over-year, while Italy saw a decrease of $1.2 million or 5.8%[55]. Expenses and Cost Management - Marketing expenses increased to $52.8 million, a rise of 5.6% from $50.0 million in the prior year, representing 6.1% of net sales, up from 5.9%[10]. - Distribution expenses rose by $22.9 million or 9.8% to $257.6 million, accounting for 30.0% of net sales[61]. - General and administrative expenses decreased by $4.3 million or 6.6% to $59.9 million, accounting for 7.0% of net sales[63]. - The net financial expenses for the three months ended March 31, 2024, decreased by $8.2 million or 21.4% to $30.1 million compared to $38.3 million for the same period in 2023[66]. - Interest expenses on loans and borrowings decreased by $2.1 million to $23.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024, compared to $25.5 million in the same period last year[69]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Free cash flow for the period was $6.5 million, an increase of $67.9 million compared to the previous year, benefiting from positive changes in working capital and increased adjusted net income[12]. - Operating cash flow for the three months ended March 31, 2024, was $99.8 million, significantly higher than $24.2 million in the same period last year[29]. - Cash and cash equivalents rose to $744.5 million at the end of Q1 2024, compared to $716.6 million at the end of Q4 2023, marking a growth of 3.9%[29]. - Total liquidity as of March 31, 2024, was $1,589.8 million, compared to $1,562.0 million at the end of 2023[12]. - The company experienced a positive change in working capital, contributing to the increase in operating cash flow and adjusted net income[85]. Debt and Financing - As of March 31, 2024, cash and cash equivalents totaled $744.5 million, while total financial debt was $1,824.5 million, resulting in net debt of $1,079.9 million, down from $1,107.4 million at the end of 2023[12]. - The total loans and borrowings as of March 31, 2024, amounted to $1,824.5 million, down from $2,010.7 million as of March 31, 2023[66]. - The company entered into a revised credit agreement on June 21, 2023, which includes a $800 million secured A term loan, a $600 million secured B term loan, and an $850 million revolving credit facility[90]. - The company must maintain a total net leverage ratio not exceeding 4.50:1.00 and a cash interest coverage ratio of no less than 3.00:1.00[99]. - The company has established various negative covenants in its agreements, restricting additional debt and asset sales among other activities[107]. Investments and Capital Expenditures - The company invested $13.2 million in property, plant, and equipment, and software during Q1 2024, compared to $9.7 million in Q1 2023[29]. - The company plans to continue investing in property, plant, and equipment to upgrade and expand its retail store network throughout the remainder of 2024[85].

Financial Performance - Samsonite achieved strong net sales increases across all regions and core brands, driven by ongoing growth in travel and tourism [2]. - The company reported a record high gross profit margin, significantly enhancing profitability through disciplined expense management [2]. - Net sales for the year ended December 31, 2023, were $3,682.4 million, an increase of 27.9% compared to $2,879.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2022 [34]. - Operating profit for the year ended December 31, 2023, was $743.7 million, reflecting a 51.1% increase from $492.1 million in the previous year [34]. - Profit attributable to equity holders for the year ended December 31, 2023, was $659.1 million, a 56.5% increase compared to $421.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2022 [34]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2023, was $709.3 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.3% [34]. - The Group's financial performance reflects a strong recovery and growth trajectory post-pandemic, with significant improvements in key financial metrics [34]. - Free Cash Flow for the year ended December 31, 2023, was US$284.5 million, an increase of US$201.0 million, or 240.6%, compared to US$83.5 million in the previous year [45]. - The Group's net sales surpassed 2019 levels by 17.5% in 2023, a significant improvement compared to a 10.4% decrease in 2022 [49]. - The Group's adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 19.3% for the year ended December 31, 2023, from 16.4% for the year ended December 31, 2022 [42]. Marketing and Brand Strategy - The company aims to increase the proportion of net sales from its direct-to-consumer e-commerce channel [6]. - Investment in marketing will be increased to support the company's brands and initiatives [6]. - The Group plans to increase marketing investment in 2024, targeting advertising spend of approximately 7.0% of its net sales to drive future growth across all brands [11]. - The Group's marketing investment strategy is designed to support brand development and drive sales growth in the coming years [9]. - The Group's marketing expenses increased by US$85.5 million, or 54.8%, to US$241.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, representing 6.6% of net sales [40]. - The company aims to limit promotional discounts to enhance gross profits while maintaining disciplined fixed expense management [65]. - Marketing spend is targeted at approximately 7.0% of net sales for 2024, aimed at supporting product innovation and retail enhancements [95]. Sustainability and ESG Initiatives - The company is committed to incorporating its environmental, social, and governance (ESG) philosophy into core business practices [8]. - The Group is committed to sustainability through its "Our Responsible Journey" initiative, leading the transformation of the luggage industry [11]. - The share of net sales from products made at least in part from recycled material increased to approximately 34% in 2023, up from about 23% in 2022 [93]. - 100% renewable electricity usage was achieved in all operations, two years ahead of the 2025 target [93]. - The ambition is to become the world's most sustainable lifestyle bag and travel luggage company while continuing to grow net sales and profitability [101]. Regional Performance - The Group expects global travel and tourism growth to remain healthy in 2024, with Asia continuing to see travel growth as outbound travel from China improves [11]. - Net sales in Asia rose by 61.7% in 2023, driven by an 88.4% increase in net sales in China due to the recovery in domestic travel [47]. - The Group anticipates steady growth in travel in North America and Europe, with stronger prospects in Europe due to the return of Chinese travelers [11]. - Net sales in North America increased by US$149.9 million, or 13.4% (+13.7% constant currency) for the year ended December 31, 2023 [182]. - Net sales in Europe increased by US$110.9 million, or 16.7% (+16.8% constant currency), for the year ended December 31, 2023, when excluding the Russia Net Sales [118]. Operational Efficiency - The Group maintains disciplined expense management on fixed selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, expecting fundamentally higher profitability from a more efficient cost structure [11]. - Fixed SG&A expenses improved to 22.7% of net sales in 2023, 140 basis points lower than the 24.1% in 2022 [56]. - The reduction in net debt and strong adjusted EBITDA growth reflects effective cash and debt management strategies [62]. - The company plans to maintain discipline in managing expenses to drive operating leverage and sustain strong Free Cash Flow generation [96]. Future Outlook - The Group plans to leverage its regional management structure and distribution expertise to extend its brands into new markets [6]. - The Group will continue to invest in marketing to drive further net sales growth [40]. - Global travel and tourism growth is expected to remain healthy, with international tourism projected to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2024, showing a 2% increase compared to 2019 [98]. - The company expresses confidence in capturing opportunities from ongoing growth in travel and tourism through product innovation and brand communication [69].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a strong recovery in global travel demand, with a 27.9% year-on-year increase in revenue to $3.68 billion for 2023, and a 50.2% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $710 million [3]. - The company expects a comparable revenue growth of 10-12% for 2024, particularly optimistic about the consumption potential in China [3]. - The company is on a path of high-quality scale expansion, with a focus on brand marketing and cost control, aiming to maintain a gross margin close to 60% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of $3.68 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 27.9% [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA for 2023 was $710 million, reflecting a 50.2% increase year-on-year [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was $417 million, up 33.4% year-on-year [4]. Product and Brand Analysis - Revenue growth was balanced across travel and non-travel categories, with travel products accounting for 66% of total revenue and non-travel products 34% [3]. - High-end brand Tumi led the growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 36% [3]. Regional Performance - Asia outperformed other regions with a 62% year-on-year increase in comparable revenue, surpassing North America as the largest revenue contributor [3]. - Revenue contributions from Asia, North America, Europe, and Latin America were 39%, 34%, 21%, and 6%, respectively [3]. Channel Performance - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) sales grew by 34% year-on-year, while wholesale sales increased by 27% [3]. - DTC accounted for 39% of total revenue, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous year [3]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin improved by 3.5 percentage points to 59.3%, reaching a historical high [3]. - Free cash flow for the year was $290 million, a 241% increase year-on-year, with net debt decreasing to $1.8 billion [3]. Future Projections - The company projects net profits of $484 million, $559 million, and $628 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 15.5%, and 12.4% [4][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company achieved a record high EBITDA margin of 19.3% in 2023, with revenue reaching $3.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%. On a comparable currency-neutral basis, revenue grew by 30.4% year-on-year [6][7] - The company has restarted dividends after a hiatus since 2020, distributing $150 million, which represents a payout ratio of 36% [6] - The company is expected to maintain high profitability levels in Q4 2023, with revenue projected at $950 million, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.1% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of $417 million, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%, and a currency-neutral increase of 34.6% [6] - The gross margin for 2023 was 59.3%, up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company’s revenue for Q4 2023 is expected to show a 15.1% increase compared to 2019 on a currency-neutral basis [6] Regional Performance - The Asia-Pacific region showed a 20% increase in revenue compared to 2019, while North America and Europe saw increases of 8% and 26.3%, respectively. Latin America experienced a significant growth of 71.6% [6] - The adjusted EBITDA margins by region for 2023 were 23.8% (Asia-Pacific), 20.4% (North America), 19% (Europe), and 13.9% (Latin America) [6] Brand Performance - The company’s three main brands, Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister, achieved revenues of $1.85 billion, $880 million, and $650 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 34%, and 26% [6] - Tumi led the growth across all regions, with revenue increases of 68% in Asia-Pacific and 71% in Latin America [6] Cost Management and Leverage - The company has reduced fixed costs as a percentage of revenue to 22.7% in 2023 from 27.3% in 2019, despite a 19% net reduction in store count [7] - Inventory levels were optimized, with a year-end inventory of $700 million, a 1% increase year-on-year, and a 5% decrease from the previous quarter [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of $485 million and $545 million in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with a PE valuation range of 14-15X for 2024 [7][8] - The estimated reasonable share price range for 2024 is between HKD 36.64 and HKD 39.25, based on a USD to HKD exchange rate of 7.83 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at 30 HKD, maintaining the rating for the next 6 months [2][10]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant revenue growth due to increased marketing investments aimed at capitalizing on the recovery of the global tourism and travel industry, with a 27.9% increase in revenue year-on-year for 2023 [2][10]. - The company's gross profit margin reached a historical high of 59.3%, reflecting improvements across all regions and brands, particularly in Asia [3][4]. - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales have shown substantial growth, with DTC retail revenue increasing by 34.3% year-on-year, contributing to 38.9% of total revenue [5][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 948 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, while net profit decreased by 24.8% to 149 million USD. For the full year 2023, revenue was 3.682 billion USD, up 27.9%, and net profit was 417 million USD, up 33.4% [2][10]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 19.3%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points, driven by revenue growth and cost management [3][4]. Regional Performance - Revenue in China surged by 88.4% in 2023, contributing to a 61.7% increase in the Asia region, with other regions also showing strong growth: North America (13.7%), Europe (16.8%), and Latin America (25.7%) [2][10]. Brand Performance - Core brands such as Samsonite, Tumi, and American Tourister saw revenue increases of 30.1%, 35.8%, and 28.7% respectively, indicating strong demand driven by the recovery in the travel sector [2][10]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates steady growth in the global tourism industry in 2024, with plans to increase marketing investments to support new product lines, expecting marketing expenses to account for approximately 7.0% of sales [6][9][10].