•周五：美国国债下跌，抹去非农就业报告带来的涨幅，2年期美国国债收益率上涨3.52个基点，报 4.2054%，10年期美国国债收益率上涨9.92个基点，报4.3836%。 英国国债抛售潮逐渐消退，投资者在英国公布政府预算案后趁着高收益率入场。 利洁时飙升提振欧洲股市，英国10年期国债收益率下跌0.1个基点，报4.445%，德国10年期国债收益率 上涨1.5个基点，报2.405%。 （数据来源：彭博、债券交易平台汇总） ...

周四：美国国债小幅上涨，摆脱英债大跌拖累，美国2年期国债收益率下跌1.23个基点，报4.1702%，美 国10年期国债收益率下跌1.6个基点，报4.2844%。 英国国债大跌，英国政府宣布扩张性财政政策后，货币市场大幅削减对英国央行降息幅度的押注。 欧洲股市录得一年来最大单月跌幅，法国巴黎银行等公司财报令人失望，英国10年期国债收益率上涨 9.4个基点，报4.446%，德国10年期国债收益率上涨0.2个基点，报2.39%。 （数据来源：彭博、债券交易平台汇总） ...

Store Operations and Expansion - The company upgraded nearly 6,000 franchised stores to enhance brand awareness[3][5] - The Group's offline store network expanded to 6,025 stores across 190 cities in 22 provinces and municipalities in China as of June 30, 2024[66] - The Group recorded a net increase of 67 retail stores in H1 2024 compared to June 30, 2023[66] - Total retail stores increased by 1.1% from 5,958 in June 2023 to 6,025 in June 2024, driven by franchisee confidence in China's fruit retail industry[67][68] - Total retail stores decreased by 1.1% from 6,093 in December 2023 to 6,025 in June 2024 due to reduced consumer spending and increased rent[67][68] - Revenue from franchised stores supervised by the Group was RMB 4,004,869 thousand in 2024, accounting for 99.3% of total revenue[70] - The company upgraded nearly 6,000 franchised stores in H1 2024 to enhance brand awareness, including standardizing store decorations and optimizing product displays[70][72] - Two large-scale innovative stores exceeding 150 square meters were operational in Yueyang City, Hunan Province as of June 30, 2024[72] - The number of franchised stores decreased by 1.9% from 4,795 in 2023 to 4,707 in 2024[111] - Average half-year revenue per franchised store decreased by 13.7% from RMB1.0 million in 2023 to RMB0.9 million in 2024[111] - Number of franchised stores supervised decreased by 1.9% from 4,795 in June 2023 to 4,707 in June 2024, with average semi-annual revenue per store dropping 13.7% from RMB1.0 million to RMB0.9 million[113] Sales and Revenue Performance - The sales of fruit gift boxes accounted for 13.0% of total store sales in the first half of 2024[3][5] - The 2B business unit grew by approximately 30.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2024[6][8] - Shenzhen Banguo achieved a gross merchandise value (GMV) of RMB1,469.7 million in the first half of 2024[6][8] - The company introduced 42 category brands, accounting for 16.0% of total store sales as of June 30, 2024[6][9] - The Group's revenue decreased by 11.1% from RMB6,294.3 million in H1 2023 to RMB5,594.1 million in H1 2024[63] - The Group's gross profit decreased by 13.2% from RMB712.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB618.5 million in H1 2024[63] - The Group's profit attributable to owners decreased by 66.1% from RMB260.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB88.5 million in H1 2024[63] - Revenue from direct sales of fruits and other food products increased by 30.0% to RMB712.8 million in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023[79][81] - Overseas market direct sales of fruits increased by 29.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024[79][81] - Shenzhen Banguo's GMV reached RMB1,469.7 million in the first half of 2024, with the addition of 1 main warehouse and 138 city warehouses[79][82] - Excellent and Grade A fruits accounted for 64.0% of the company's gross store retail sales in the first half of 2024[83][85] - Self-branded fruits accounted for 16.0% of the company's gross store retail sales in the first half of 2024[83][85] - The company launched 5 new Excellent fruit brands in the first half of 2024, bringing the total to 42[83][85] - Total revenue decreased by 11.1% from RMB6,294.3 million in 2023 to RMB5,594.1 million in 2024[104] - Revenue from sales of fruits and other food products accounted for 97.2% of total revenue in both 2023 and 2024[104] - Direct sales revenue increased by 30.0% from RMB548.3 million in 2023 to RMB712.8 million in 2024[107] - Revenue from franchised stores decreased by 15.2% from RMB4,732.1 million in 2023 to RMB4,011.8 million in 2024[107] - Overseas market sales increased by 29.4% from RMB109.0 million in 2023 to RMB141.0 million in 2024[108] - Domestic market sales to 2B customers increased by 30.2% from RMB439.3 million in 2023 to RMB571.8 million in 2024[109] - Cost of sales decreased by 10.9% from RMB5,581.8 million in H1 2023 to RMB4,975.6 million in H1 2024, in line with reduced revenue from fruit and other food sales[112][114] - Gross profit decreased by 13.2% from RMB712.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB618.5 million in H1 2024, with gross profit margin slightly declining from 11.3% to 11.1%[113][115] - Other income increased by 27.7% from RMB21.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB27.4 million in H1 2024, primarily due to increased government grants[117][121] - Selling expenses increased by 22.6% from RMB242.0 million in H1 2023 to RMB296.6 million in H1 2024, driven by brand renewal campaign costs[119][123] - Administrative expenses increased by 14.9% from RMB146.9 million in H1 2023 to RMB168.7 million in H1 2024, due to higher staff costs and legal fees[120][124] - Research and development expenses decreased by 10.5% from RMB74.1 million in H1 2023 to RMB66.3 million in H1 2024, primarily due to reduced R&D headcount[127][130] - Finance income increased by 35.8% from RMB20.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB27.9 million in H1 2024, while finance costs rose 36.7% from RMB38.4 million to RMB52.5 million due to increased bank borrowings[128][131] - Profit before tax decreased by 63.6% from RMB272.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB99.3 million in H1 2024, mainly due to reduced retail sales and increased brand renewal expenses[134] - Income tax expense decreased by 30.2% from RMB21.9 million in H1 2023 to RMB15.3 million in H1 2024, primarily due to reduced operating profit and taxable income[135][139] - Net profit decreased by 66.5% from RMB250.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB84.0 million in H1 2024, with net profit margin dropping from 4.0% to 1.5%[136][140] - Profit before tax decreased by 63.6% from RMB272.5 million in H1 2023 to RMB99.3 million in H1 2024, mainly due to reduced retail sales and increased brand renewal expenses[138] - Share of losses from associates and joint ventures was RMB4.0 million in H1 2024, compared to a profit of RMB7.5 million in H1 2023[137] - Adjusted net profit for H1 2024 was RMB88.9 million, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%, after adding back share-based payment expenses of RMB4.96 million[147] Marketing and Brand Awareness - The company held two Excellent fruits press conferences in April and July 2024 to enhance consumer awareness[6][9] - The company implemented a new strategy of "expert and leader in high-quality fruit industry" at the beginning of 2024[4][10] - The company aims to become a world-leading fruit eco-technology company[11] - The company's mission is to offer delicious fruits and enjoyable lifestyle to people[12] - The company's core values include conscience, trust, altruism, innovation, and results[13] - Douyin live broadcast views reached 70.93 million in H1 2024, a 218.5% increase compared to the same period in 2023[74][75] - The company achieved over 100 million exposures in a single month and daily single product sales exceeding RMB 500,000 on Douyin instant retail in H1 2024[75] - Fruit gift box sales increased from 10.6% of total store sales in 2023 to 13.0% in H1 2024[76] - The company had over 84 million members across all distribution channels and 1,071 thousand paying members as of June 30, 2024[77] - WeChat mini-program users reached 69.39 million, an 11.9% increase compared to the same period in 2023[77] - Online orders accounted for 26.1% of the company's total orders in the first half of 2024[78][80] - The number of WeChat community followers increased by 5.2% year-on-year to over 17.3 million as of June 30, 2024[78][80] - The company's new strategy of "expert and leader in high-quality fruit industry" aims to strengthen distribution channels and products, enhancing consumer brand awareness and market leadership[100] Financial and Operational Metrics - The company's H Shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 16, 2023[45] - The 2023 Share Award Scheme was approved by shareholders at the first extraordinary general meeting on September 28, 2023[31] - The company's registered office is located at No. 3018 Shayan Road, Tianxin Community, Shatoujiao Street, Yantian District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China[26] - The company's principal place of business in Hong Kong is at the 40th Floor, Dah Sing Financial Centre, No. 248 Queen's Road East, Wanchai, Hong Kong[26] - The company's H Share registrar is Computershare Hong Kong Investor Services Limited, located at Shops 1712-1716, 17th Floor, Hopewell Centre, 183 Queen's Road East, Wanchai, Hong Kong[27] - The company's principal banks include China Merchants Bank, Longhua Branch, Bank of Communications, Xiangzhou Branch, and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Shenzhen Fuqiang Branch[27] - The company's overseas auditor is PricewaterhouseCoopers, located at 22/F, Prince's Building, Central, Hong Kong[23] - The company's domestic auditor is ShineWing Certified Public Accountants LLP Shenzhen Branch, located at 19-20/F, MFC, No. 9, Pengcheng 1st Road, Futian District, Shenzhen, China[24] - The company's compliance adviser is Somerley Capital Limited, located at 20th Floor, China Building, 29 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong[26] - The company's website is www.pagoda.com.cn[27] - China's fruit imports reached US$11.23 billion in H1 2024, a 3.8% increase compared to the same period in 2023[58] - The consumer price index (CPI) for fresh fruits in China decreased by 7.8% in H1 2024 compared to H1 2023[58] - Shenzhen Banguo Technology Co., Ltd. is owned 51.00% by Pagoda Investment, 15.00% by Mr. XU Yusheng, 23.93% by Mr. LI Jiang, and 10.07% by Beijing Banguo Yuhuoban Technology Development Center[49] - The upgraded smart ordering 3.0 system improved sales forecast accuracy by 10% in the first half of 2024[87][90] - The company's wholly-owned subsidiary, Good Fruit Inspection and Testing (Guangdong) Co., Ltd., obtained the Qualification Certificate from the Inspection and Testing Agency in February 2024, allowing the use of the CMA mark in fruit test reports[92] - In July 2024, the company collaborated with Jinan Fruit Research Institute to issue the industry's first Raw Materials for Fresh-cut Fruits enterprise standard, categorizing fruits into five main categories and setting standards based on key indicators[93] - The company plans to optimize the franchise model by reducing royalty fees, enhancing brand marketing resources, and providing training support to improve single-store profitability[97] - The company will upgrade its scientific pricing system, improving algorithms and adjusting category structure and pricing strategy based on detailed urban business district data[97] - The company aims to expand domestic and overseas distribution channels, develop new fruit gift boxes for 2B customers, and strengthen product development capabilities through exclusive distribution rights[99] - The company will implement the "Buy Globally, Sell Globally" strategy to promote high-quality fruits from various production areas to be circulated and traded globally[99] - The company will continue to introduce advanced agricultural and seedling technologies to suppliers to improve fruit quality and quantity, aiming to establish a competitive umbrella category brand[100] - Cash and bank balances increased to RMB3,122.9 million as of June 30, 2024, including unrestricted cash and equivalents of RMB2,840.5 million[150] - Net asset value as of June 30, 2024 was RMB3,344.4 million, with current assets of RMB5,778.6 million and current liabilities of RMB4,544.0 million[149] - The company received net proceeds of HK$474.0 million from its Global Offering and Listing in Q1 2023, which it intends to use for expansion and operations[148] - The Group completed its Global Offering and Listing in Q1 2023, raising net proceeds of HK$474.0 million[152][156] - As of June 30, 2024, the Group had net assets of RMB3,344.4 million, with current assets of RMB5,778.6 million and current liabilities of RMB4,544.0 million[153] - The Group's cash and bank deposits increased to RMB3,122.9 million as of June 30, 2024, from RMB2,537.1 million as of December 31, 2023[154] - The Group's gearing ratio increased from 56.8% as of December 31, 2023 to 87.7% as of June 30, 2024, primarily due to increased bank borrowings[160][162] - The Group allocated HK$229.5 million (48.4% of net proceeds) to improve and enhance operation and supply chain systems[158] - The Group allocated HK$127.5 million (26.9% of net proceeds) to upgrade and improve core backbone IT systems and infrastructure[158] - The Group allocated HK$91.5 million (19.3% of net proceeds) to repay part of interest-bearing bank borrowings[158] - The Group had non-current bank borrowings of RMB168.9 million and short-term bank borrowings of RMB2,765.2 million as of June 30, 2024[160][162] - The Group pledged right-of-use assets of RMB47.3 million and buildings of RMB22.6 million as collateral for bank borrowings as of June 30, 2024[161][163] - The Group had RMB272.6 million of unutilized net proceeds as of June 30, 2024, deposited in short-term interest-bearing deposits[158][159] - Net cash generated from operating activities increased to RMB277.7 million in H1 2024 from RMB225.1 million in H1 2023, driven by decreases in deposits, prepayments, and other receivables of RMB81.6 million and inventories of RMB45.4 million[165][167] - Net cash used in investing activities was RMB1,002.7 million in H1 2024, primarily due to net acquisition of financial assets at FVTPL of RMB458.9 million and long-term bank deposits of RMB435.0 million[165][167] - Net cash generated from financing activities was RMB905.8 million in H1 2024, mainly from bank borrowings of RMB1,730.1 million, compared to RMB639.9 million in H1 2023[165][168] - Structured deposits accounted for as financial assets at FVTPL increased to RMB652.1 million as of June 30, 2024, from RMB180.4 million as of December 31, 2023[171][172] - Other financial assets at FVTPL decreased to RMB78.2 million as of June 30, 2024, from RMB86.5 million as of December 31, 2023[171][172] - Financial assets at FVOCI increased to RMB33.8 million as of June 30, 2024, from RMB30.6 million as of December 31, 2023[171][172] - Capital expenditures amounted to RMB86.6 million in H1 2024, primarily for the construction of a new office building in Shenzhen[172][175] - The Group subscribed to structured deposit products from CITIC Bank with total principal amounts of RMB125 million, RMB25 million, RMB50 million, RMB100 million, and RMB125 million, with expected annualized returns ranging from 1.05% to 2.61%[178] - Subscribed to CITIC structured deposit products with principal amounts totaling RMB125 million, RMB25 million, RMB50 million, and RMB100 million, with expected annual return rates ranging from 1.05% to 2.61%[179] - Subscribed to BOB structured deposit products with principal amounts totaling RMB100 million and RMB300 million, with expected annual return rates ranging from 1.30% to 2.88%[180][181] - Average inventory turnover days increased from 9.2 days in H1 2023 to 10.9 days in H1 2024[185][187] - Average trade receivables turnover days increased from 31.7 days in H1 2023 to 34.2 days in H1 2024[185][187] - Average trade payables

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company with a target price of **HKD 2.03**, representing a **34.6% upside** from the current price of HKD 1.51 [2][3] Core Views - The company's **fruit retail business is under pressure**, with a **11.1% YoY decline** in revenue and a **66.1% YoY drop** in net profit in 1H24 [2] - **Direct sales business continues to grow rapidly**, with domestic and overseas direct sales increasing by **30.2% and 29.4% YoY**, respectively, driven by expanded market coverage and partnerships [2] - The company's **store count remains stable** at 6,025 as of June 30, 2024, with a net increase of 67 stores YoY [2] - The company has implemented a **new strategy** focusing on becoming a **high-quality fruit expert and leader**, which has shown initial success with **42 proprietary fruit brands** and a **16% share** of total retail sales [2] - The report forecasts **net profits of RMB 1.9/2.8/3.6 billion** for 2024-2026, driven by strategic adjustments and growth in direct sales and overseas C-end business [2] Financial Performance - **Revenue** is expected to decline by **11.4% YoY** in 2024 to RMB 10,095.6 million, followed by a **4.4% increase** in 2025 and a **6.5% increase** in 2026 [1][6] - **Net profit attributable to shareholders** is projected to drop by **46.3% YoY** in 2024 to RMB 194.1 million, with a recovery of **43.2% YoY** in 2025 and **27.9% YoY** in 2026 [1][6] - **Basic EPS** is forecasted to decrease to **12.33 RMB cents** in 2024, recovering to **17.65 RMB cents** in 2025 and **22.58 RMB cents** in 2026 [1][6] - The **P/E ratio** is expected to rise to **12.2x** in 2024, then decline to **8.6x** in 2025 and **6.7x** in 2026 [1][6] Business Segments - **Fruit and other food sales** accounted for **RMB 5.44 billion** in 1H24, down **11.1% YoY**, while **other income** grew by **72.1% YoY** to RMB 50 million [2] - **Franchise fees and franchise income** declined by **31.8% YoY** to RMB 70 million, and **membership income** dropped by **19.9% YoY** to RMB 40 million [2] - **Online channel revenue** fell by **61.1% YoY** to RMB 60 million, reflecting challenges in the retail environment [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has expanded its **supply chain efficiency** and **2B market share** through the acquisition of **Shenzhen Ban Guo**, targeting small and medium-sized fruit suppliers [2] - The **C-end overseas expansion** is expected to break the **store opening ceiling**, with the company announcing its official entry into overseas markets in September 2024 [2] - The company's **proprietary fruit brands** now account for **16% of total retail sales**, up **2 percentage points YoY**, with **5 new brands** launched in 1H24 [2] - **Gift sales** contributed **13.0%** of total sales in 1H24, up **2.4 percentage points** from 2023, driven by holiday promotions [2] Industry Comparison - The company's **P/E ratio** of **6.0x** for 2024 is lower than the **simple average of 30.3x** for the retail industry, indicating potential undervaluation [5] - The company's **CAGR for 2024-2026** is projected at **8.4%**, lower than the **23.1% average** for the retail industry but higher than some peers like **Tianhong Digital Commerce** (9.6%) [5] - The company's **PEG ratio** of **1.1x** for 2024 is in line with the industry average, suggesting balanced growth and valuation [5]

商贸零售/专业连锁Ⅱ 公 司 研 究 上半年水果零售业务有所承压，2B 事业群表现良好 百果园集团（02411.HK） 2024 年 08 月 22 日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 黄泽鹏（分析师） 骆峥（分析师） huangzepeng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519110001 luozheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040008 | --- | --- | |--------------------|-------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/22 | | 当前股价(港元) | 1.710 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 6.680/1.610 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 27.16 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 20.22 | | 总股本(亿股) | 15.89 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 11.83 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 6.97 | 公司 2024H1 营收同比-11.1%，归母净利润同比-66.1%，整体有所承压 公司发布中报：2024 年上半年实现营收 55.94 亿元（同比-11.1%）、归母净利 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the financial performance suggests a cautious outlook due to declining revenues and profits [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.594 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, and a net profit of 0.089 billion yuan, down 66.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin stood at 11.1%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points, while the net margin was 1.5%, down 2.5 percentage points [1]. - The company had a total of 6,025 stores as of June 30, 2024, an increase of 67 stores compared to the same period last year, with franchise stores accounting for 6,011 of these [1]. - Membership numbers reached 84.74 million, an increase of 5.43 million from the end of the previous year, while paid members decreased by 70,000 to 1.07 million [1]. Business Performance Summary - The sales revenue from fruits and other food products contributed over 97% to total revenue, primarily benefiting from growth in the domestic and international B2B markets [1]. - Revenue from fruit and other food sales was 5.436 billion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, while franchise and licensing income fell by 31.8% to 0.067 billion yuan [1]. - Membership income decreased by 19.9% to 0.038 billion yuan, while other income rose by 72.1% to 0.053 billion yuan [1]. - Franchise store revenue was 4 billion yuan, down 15.22%, with average revenue per franchise store declining from 1 million yuan in the first half of 2023 to 900,000 yuan [1]. Strategic Direction - The company is focusing on a strategic upgrade to become a "high-quality fruit expert and leader," emphasizing brand strength and quality [1]. - The three main strategic battles for 2024 will focus on store renovations, enhancing fruit gift sales, and promoting signature fruit sales [1]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 10.3 billion yuan, 10.9 billion yuan, and 11.7 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year changes of -9.47%, +5.66%, and +7.34% respectively [2]. - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 0.135 billion yuan, 0.307 billion yuan, and 0.362 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline in 2024 followed by recovery in subsequent years [2].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, decreased by approximately 11.1% to RMB 5,594.1 million from RMB 6,294.3 million for the same period in 2023[2]. - Gross profit for the same period decreased by approximately 13.2% to RMB 618.5 million from RMB 712.5 million in 2023[2]. - Profit attributable to owners of the company decreased by approximately 66.1% to RMB 88.5 million from RMB 260.8 million in 2023[2]. - The retail sales total for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 6,748.5 million, down from RMB 7,927.2 million in 2023[4]. - Total revenue decreased by approximately 11.1% from RMB 6,294.3 million in the six months ended June 30, 2023, to RMB 5,594.1 million in the six months ended June 30, 2024[20]. - Revenue from fruit and other food sales accounted for 97.2% of total revenue for both periods, with sales decreasing from RMB 6,117.2 million to RMB 5,435.7 million[20]. - The company reported a net profit of RMB 83.96 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, down from RMB 250.5 million in the same period of the previous year[19]. - Net profit decreased by approximately 66.5% from RMB 250.5 million to RMB 84.0 million, with the net profit margin dropping from 4.0% to 1.5%[36]. - Adjusted net profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 88.9 million, compared to RMB 252.7 million for the same period in 2023, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.6%[37]. Retail Expansion - The total number of retail stores increased by 67 to 6,025 stores as of June 30, 2024, compared to 5,958 stores in 2023[4]. - The company continues to expand its retail network across 190 cities in 22 provinces and municipalities in China[7]. - The total number of retail stores increased by approximately 1.1% from 5,958 as of December 31, 2023, to 6,025 as of June 30, 2024, primarily due to confidence in the potential growth of the fruit retail industry in China[8]. Membership and Customer Engagement - Membership increased to 84,741 thousand from 79,314 thousand in 2023, while paid members decreased to 1,071 thousand from 1,141 thousand[4]. - The total number of members across all distribution channels exceeded 84 million, with over 1.07 million paid members[12]. - The number of live streaming views on Douyin reached 70.93 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 218.5%[11]. - The company established approximately 28,098 WeChat groups for store managers, with a total of over 17.3 million fans, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 5.2%[12]. Strategic Initiatives - The company aims to implement a new strategy focusing on high-quality fruit expertise and leadership, marking the start of a three-year plan[6]. - The company plans to increase marketing expenditure to support its new strategic initiatives[6]. - The new strategic direction as a "high-quality fruit expert and leader" aims to enhance product quality and consumer experience while maintaining high cost-performance[17]. - The company plans to optimize the franchise model to increase profitability for franchisees by reducing royalty fees and enhancing marketing support[17]. - The company will expand its 2B business by offering diverse product categories and enhancing distribution channels domestically and internationally[17]. Financial Position and Cash Flow - As of June 30, 2024, the group's net asset value was RMB 3,344.4 million, slightly up from RMB 3,337.1 million as of December 31, 2023[39]. - Cash and bank deposits increased from RMB 2,537.1 million as of December 31, 2023, to RMB 3,122.9 million as of June 30, 2024[40]. - The net cash generated from operating activities increased from RMB 225.1 million for the six months ended June 30, 2023, to RMB 277.7 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024[47]. - The net cash used in investing activities was RMB 1,002.7 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to a net cash generated of RMB 48.9 million for the same period in 2023, mainly due to acquisitions of financial assets[48]. - The net cash generated from financing activities was RMB 905.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to cash used of RMB 334.8 million for the same period in 2023, primarily due to bank borrowings received of approximately RMB 1,730.1 million[48]. Cost Management and Expenses - Selling expenses increased by approximately 22.6% from RMB 242.0 million to RMB 296.6 million, primarily due to expenses related to brand renovation activities[28]. - Administrative expenses increased by approximately 14.9% from RMB 146.9 million to RMB 168.7 million, driven by an increase in the number of administrative staff and their average annual salaries[29]. - Research and development expenses decreased from RMB 74.1 million to RMB 66.3 million, reflecting a focus on cost management[24]. - Financial income increased by approximately 35.8% from RMB 20.5 million to RMB 27.9 million, while financial costs rose by approximately 36.7% from RMB 38.4 million to RMB 52.5 million, mainly due to increased bank borrowings[32]. Asset and Liability Management - Total liabilities increased to RMB 5,232,986,000 from RMB 4,253,889,000, indicating a rise of 23%[64]. - The company's capital debt ratio increased from 56.8% as of December 31, 2023, to 87.7% as of June 30, 2024, primarily due to increased bank borrowings to maintain sufficient liquidity related to brand renewal activities[45]. - The company has maintained a strong liquidity position with current liabilities totaling RMB 4,543,968,000, compared to RMB 3,517,562,000 in the previous period[64]. Market and Product Development - Direct sales revenue from fruits and other foods increased by approximately 30.0% from RMB 548.3 million to RMB 712.8 million for the six months ended June 30, 2024[13]. - Signature and A-grade fruit sales accounted for approximately 64.0% of total retail sales in the first half of 2024[14]. - The company launched a total of 42 signature fruit brands, with self-owned brand fruit retail sales contributing about 16.0% to total retail sales in the same period[14]. - The upgraded smart ordering system improved sales forecast accuracy by 10%, optimizing inventory management and reducing waste from damaged or stale fruits[15]. Compliance and Governance - The audit committee consists of two independent non-executive directors and one non-executive director, ensuring compliance with listing rules[93]. - The interim financial information for the six months ending June 30, 2024, has been reviewed by the auditors but remains unaudited[94].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 [Table_Industry] 批零贸易业 证 券 研 究 报 告 同店及拓店承压，静待企稳修复 ——百果园集团更新报告 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|---------------------|--------------------------| | [table_Authors] | 刘越男(分析师) | 陈笑(分析师) | | | 021-38677706 | 021-38677906 | | | liuyuenan@gtjas.com | chenxiao015813@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880516030003 | S0880518020002 | 本报告导读： 当前消费环境较弱，公司拓店及同店承压，静待企稳修复。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持增持。考虑到当前的消费环境较弱以及门店战略焕新等的费用支 出，下调预测 2024-26 年经调整净利至 1.98/2.8 ...

Store Expansion and Retail Network - The company's total number of stores reached 6,093 in 2023, with a net increase of 443 stores, covering more than 170 cities in 22 provinces and municipalities[5] - The company's retail network includes self-operated APP, WeChat Mini-program, and third-party platforms like Douyin, Meituan, and Ele.me[5] - The company's retail business unit expanded its store network by 443 stores, reaching a total of 6,093 stores across more than 170 cities in 22 provinces and municipalities[36][37] - Total number of retail stores increased by 7.8% to 6,093 as of December 31, 2023, compared to 5,650 in 2022[54][55] - Revenue from franchised stores supervised by the Group accounted for 99.4% of total revenue, amounting to RMB 8,495,143 thousand in 2023[58] - The Group established a franchisee committee and organized six exchange and learning activities in 2023 to enhance franchisee satisfaction[59] - Revenue from franchised stores decreased by 4.0% from RMB8,851.5 million in 2022 to RMB8,499.8 million in 2023, despite a 5.3% increase in the number of stores to 4,818[92][94] - Average annual revenue per franchised store decreased by 9.8% from RMB2.0 million in 2022 to RMB1.8 million in 2023[94][96] Online Sales and Digital Channels - Online orders accounted for approximately 27.6% of total sales in 2023[5] - Cumulative number of users of the WeChat mini-program reached 68 million, a 26% increase compared to 2022[60] - Total number of store-based WeChat groups increased to 27,455 with over 16.2 million followers, a 25.6% year-on-year increase[60] - Orders placed through online channels accounted for 27.6% of total orders in 2023[60] - Total number of customers purchasing through Douyin increased by 190% in 2023 compared to 2022[62] - Retail sales of fruits and fruit products through Douyin ranked first among all fruits and fruit products traded on the platform in 2023[62] - The Group's Tasty Fruit Festival in October 2023 attracted over 120 million online views and trended nationally on Weibo[62] Business Unit Performance - The 2B business unit grew by approximately 42.5% year-on-year in 2023[6] - The 2B business unit achieved a year-on-year revenue growth rate of 42.5% in 2023[38] - Revenue from direct sales (2B business) increased by 42.5% from RMB723.8 million in 2022 to RMB1,031.5 million in 2023[92] - Overseas 2B sales grew by 62.0% from RMB154.4 million in 2022 to RMB250.0 million in 2023, driven by increased demand for quality fruits[92][93] - Domestic 2B sales increased by 37.2% from RMB569.4 million in 2022 to RMB781.5 million in 2023, due to favorable pricing strategies[92][93] - The company restructured into three business units: retail, 2B, and category business units to align with long-term growth goals[48] Financial Performance - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2023 was RMB11,390.6 million, an increase of 0.7% compared to 2022[32][33] - Gross profit for 2023 was RMB1,314.8 million, a slight increase of 0.04% compared to 2022[32][33] - Profit attributable to owners of the company for 2023 was RMB361.7 million, an increase of 11.9% compared to 2022[32][33] - The company's revenue increased by 0.7% from RMB 11,312.0 million in 2022 to RMB 11,390.6 million in 2023[47] - The company's gross profit slightly increased by 0.04% from RMB 1,314.3 million in 2022 to RMB 1,314.8 million in 2023[47] - The company's profit attributable to owners increased by 11.9% from RMB 323.3 million in 2022 to RMB 361.7 million in 2023[47] - Total revenue increased by 0.7% from RMB11,312.0 million in 2022 to RMB11,390.6 million in 2023[88] - Revenue from sales of fruits and other food products accounted for 97.2% of total revenue in 2023, up from 97.1% in 2022[88] - Direct sales revenue increased by 42.5% from RMB723.8 million in 2022 to RMB1,031.5 million in 2023[91] - Franchised stores revenue decreased by 4.0% from RMB8,851.5 million in 2022 to RMB8,499.8 million in 2023[91] - Operating profit increased from RMB384.998 million in 2022 to RMB416.612 million in 2023[85] - Net profit attributable to owners of the Company rose from RMB323.297 million in 2022 to RMB361.717 million in 2023[85] - Revenue from regional dealers increased by 15.4% from RMB1,072.740 million in 2022 to RMB1,238.641 million in 2023[91] - Royalty and franchising income decreased from RMB168.844 million in 2022 to RMB144.582 million in 2023[88] - Membership income increased from RMB90.132 million in 2022 to RMB95.345 million in 2023[88] - Gross profit margin slightly decreased from 11.6% in 2022 to 11.5% in 2023, with gross profit increasing by only 0.04% to RMB1,314.8 million[96][98] - Other income decreased by 9.8% from RMB40.8 million in 2022 to RMB36.8 million in 2023, mainly due to reduced government grants and franchisee penalty income[99][100] - Net other gains increased by 16.7% from RMB25.4 million in 2022 to RMB29.6 million in 2023, driven by foreign exchange gains from overseas direct sales[101][103] - Selling expenses decreased by 3.4% to RMB482.0 million in 2023, partly due to a 4.7% reduction in transportation costs to RMB204.6 million[102][104] - Administrative expenses decreased by 2.5% to RMB313.5 million in 2023, as administrative staff headcount reduced from 538 to 525[105][107] - Net impairment losses on financial assets increased from RMB2.2 million in 2022 to RMB23.5 million in 2023, primarily due to defaults and insolvency of 2B business customers[108] - Research and development expenses decreased by 15.8% from RMB173.0 million in 2022 to RMB145.6 million in 2023, driven by a reduction in R&D staff from 491 to 361[109][110] - Finance income increased by 28.7% from RMB31.8 million in 2022 to RMB40.9 million in 2023, mainly due to higher interest income from bank deposits[111][113] - Finance costs decreased by 9.5% from RMB83.7 million in 2022 to RMB75.8 million in 2023, primarily due to lower interest expenses on bank borrowings and lease liabilities[111][113] - Share of losses from associates and joint ventures was RMB0.7 million in 2023, compared to a profit of RMB13.3 million in 2022, mainly due to losses in avocado and pitaya cultivation ventures[112][114] - Profit before income tax increased by 10.0% from RMB346.4 million in 2022 to RMB381.0 million in 2023[115][118] - Income tax expense increased by 2.0% from RMB40.2 million in 2022 to RMB41.0 million in 2023, driven by higher taxable income[116][119] - Net profit increased by 11.1% from RMB306.1 million in 2022 to RMB340.0 million in 2023, with net profit margin rising from 2.71% to 2.98%[117][120] - Adjusted net profit and adjusted net profit margin are presented as non-HKFRS measures, excluding listing expenses related to the Group's global offering and listing in January 2023[121] - The Group uses non-HKFRS measures to evaluate financial performance by excluding non-recurring items, though these measures have limitations and should not replace HKFRS-based analysis[122][123] - Net profit for the year 2023 was RMB 339,992 thousand, an increase from RMB 306,137 thousand in 2022[126] - Adjusted net profit for 2023 was RMB 342,184 thousand, with an adjusted net profit margin of 3.00%, compared to 2.99% in 2022[126] Supply Chain and Logistics - The company operates 29 warehouses and distribution centers, supporting its expansion into new cities[5] - The company gained control over Shenzhen Banguo in 2023, enhancing supply chain advantages and expanding market share[6] - In November 2023, the company gained control over Shenzhen Banguo to expand its B2B integrated procurement service platform[38] - The Group operates 29 warehouses across China, with a total floor area of over 207,000 sq.m., including 16 self-operated preliminary processing and distribution centers[72] - Transportation costs decreased by approximately 4.7% in 2023 compared to 2022 due to the upgraded transportation management system (TMS)[73] - The purchase amount from suppliers provided with agricultural technology and related services increased from 35.0% in 2022 to 41.0% in 2023[73] - The Group completed the construction of 16 warehouses in 16 production areas, covering 10 types of fruits across 11 provinces and cities in China[73] - The Group will upgrade its warehousing and transportation management systems to improve efficiency and reduce costs[79][81] - The Group will continue to expand and upgrade its network of preliminary processing and distribution centers to support the growth of its 2B fruit business and fresh grocery business[79][81] Product Development and Branding - The company successfully introduced 37 category brands to the market by the end of 2023, accounting for approximately 14% of total retail sales[9] - The company has developed 37 product brands, with Excellent products contributing approximately 14% of the total retail volume of its stores[39] - The Group introduced six new Excellent fruit product brands in 2023, bringing the total to 37 self-owned product brands, which accounted for 14.0% of total store retail sales[69][70] - Sales of Fruit Corn increased by 3,076% and Golden Venus Apple sales grew by 515% in 2023 compared to 2022[71] - Aggregate sales of fruits under Excellent and Grade A categories accounted for 66.5% of the total store retail sales of Pagoda stores in 2023[66][68] Strategic Goals and Future Plans - The company's strategy focuses on becoming an expert and leader in the high-quality fruit industry[10] - The company's vision is to become a world-leading fruit eco-technology company[11] - The company's mission is to offer delicious fruits and an enjoyable lifestyle to people[12] - The company plans to focus on enhancing store profitability and expanding the "healthy fruit gift" market in 2024[40][42] - The company aims to improve supply chain efficiency and market share through synergy with Shenzhen Banguo[40][42] - The Group aims to improve retail store profitability by increasing the sales proportion of Excellent fruits and creating high-quality fruit gift boxes[75][77] - The Group plans to expand its OMO distribution network by penetrating low-tier cities and expanding stores in existing cities[75][77] - The Group will strengthen its 2B business by developing customized fruit gift boxes and expanding its 2B customer base through omni-channel strategies[78][80] - The Group plans to invest in IT research and development, leveraging AI and deep learning to improve data processing and management capabilities[83] Subsidiaries and Corporate Structure - Baiguo Digital Industrial Park Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary established in the PRC on March 12, 2020[22] - Baiguo Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary established in the PRC on November 18, 2014[23] - Baihui Life Technology Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary established in the PRC on November 16, 2020[23] - Baixin Investment Development Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary established in the PRC on September 10, 2021[23] - Beijing Aoxiang Technology Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary established in the PRC on August 20, 2013[23] - Hainan Pagoda Supply Chain Management Service Co., Ltd. established on September 18, 2020, as a wholly-owned subsidiary[25] - Shenzhen Jinnong Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. established on May 12, 2021, with 75% ownership by Pagoda Investment and 25% by an independent third party[26] - Shenzhen Pagoda Brand Management Co., Ltd. established on January 18, 2019, as a wholly-owned subsidiary[26] - Jiangxi Wangpin Agricultural Technology Development Co., Ltd. established on May 13, 2003, as a wholly-owned subsidiary[25] - Shenzhen Hengyili Investment Development Center Limited Partnership established on December 1, 2015, as an employee shareholding platform and controlling shareholder[25] - Shenzhen Hongyuan Shanguo Investment Development Limited Partnership established on April 13, 2015, as an employee shareholding platform and controlling shareholder[24] - Hainan Tiantu Xingzhou Venture Capital Partnership established on September 14, 2021, as a connected person of the company[24] - Shenzhen Guodao Yunxin Education Consulting Co., Ltd. established on May 24, 2017, as a connected person of the company[24] - Pagoda Seeds is a non-wholly owned subsidiary, with 60.24% ownership by Pagoda Investment, 5.48% by Youguolian, and 34.28% by Guangxi Zhencheng Agriculture Co., Ltd.[27] - Shenzhen Banguo is a non-wholly owned subsidiary, with 51.00% ownership by Pagoda Investment, 15.00% by Mr. XU Yusheng, 23.93% by Ms. WU Weixin, and 10.07% by Beijing Banguo Yuhuoban Technology Development Center[28] - Shenzhen Sangeling is a non-wholly owned subsidiary, indirectly controlled by the Company (56.53%), Zhixin Bainong (25.44%), and Hainan Tiantu (18.03%)[29] - Shenzhen Youxian is a non-wholly owned subsidiary, with 65% ownership by Baiguo Technology and 35% by Tanlian Information Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd.[29] Market and Industry Trends - China's total fruit imports reached US$18,340 million in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%[46] - Fresh durian imports in China grew significantly, reaching US$6,720 million in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 66.0%[46] Corporate Governance and Leadership - The company's 2023 Share Award Scheme was approved by shareholders at the first extraordinary general meeting held on September 28, 2023[22] - The Annual General Meeting (AGM) is scheduled to be held on Thursday, June 6, 2024[22] - Mr. TIAN Xiqiu, aged 50, is an executive Director and vice-chairman, responsible for assisting in formulating the overall development strategies of the company[169] - Mr. JIAO Yue, aged 37, is an executive Director and executive deputy general manager, overseeing the day-to-day business operation of the company[169] - Mr. ZHU Qidong, aged 49, is an executive Director and deputy general manager, responsible for overseeing the procurement, wholesale, and sales of the company[170] - Mr. ZHU Qidong has been an executive director of several subsidiaries, including Pagoda Investment, Pagoda Supply Chain, and Shenzhen Yimiaotong since August 2019[171] - Mr. ZHU Qidong has been the chairman of the board of Pagoda Seeds and Jinnong Supply Chain since July 2020 and May 2021, respectively[171] - Mr. ZHU Qidong has been a director of Hainan Shengjie Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. since October 2019, a company engaged in the production, sales, and transportation of agricultural products[172] - Mr. ZHU Qidong attended courses in business administration at Peking University from April 2016 to July 2018[172] - Dr. JIANG Yanbo, aged 57, is an independent non-executive director, responsible for providing independent opinions on the company's operations and management[173] - Dr. Jiang Yanbo has been an independent non-executive director of BYD Company Limited from September 2020 to September 2023, a company engaged in rechargeable batteries and photovoltaic business[176] - Dr. Jiang Yanbo has been serving as an independent non-executive director of Mubang High-tech Co., Ltd. since November 2021, a company listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (stock code: 603398)[175] - Dr. Jiang Yanbo has been an independent non-executive director of Shenzhen Minkave Technology Co., Ltd. since September 2021, a company listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (stock code: 300506)[175] - Dr. Jiang Yanbo has been an independent director of Guangdong Yingde Rural Commercial Bank Company Limited since April 2023[175] - Dr. Jiang Yanbo was an independent non-executive director of Guangdong Dowstone Technology Co., Ltd. from April 2017 to April 2023, a technology company listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange[176] - Dr. Jiang Yanbo served as an independent non-executive director of Kangda New Materials (Group) Co.,

商贸零售/专业连锁Ⅱ 公 司 百果园集团（02411.HK）渠道规模稳健扩张，2024 年转向高质量增长战略 研 究 2024年03月30日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 黄泽鹏（分析师） 骆峥（联系人） huangzepeng@kysec.cn luozheng@kysec.cn 证 书编号：S0790519110001 证书编号：S0790122040015 日期 2024/3/28 港 当前股价(港元) 3.280  事件：公司2023年营收同比+0.7%，归母净利润同比+11.9% 股 一年最高最低(港元) 6.720/2.310 公司发布年报：2023年实现营收113.91亿元（同比+0.7%）、归母净利润3.62亿 公 司 总市值(亿港元) 52.10 元（同比+11.9%）。考虑到公司品牌焕新等投入，我们下调公司 2024-2025 年盈 信 流通市值(亿港元) 38.79 利预测并新增2026年盈利预测，预计2024-2026年归母净利润为 3.44（-0.14） 息 总股本(亿股) 15.89 /4.15（-0.08）/5.16亿元，对应EPS为0.22（-0.01）/ ...