锅圈（2517.HK）2025 年业绩预告点评 业绩兑现优秀，聚力共进迈步 2026 glmszqdatemark 相对走势 -10% 40% 90% 140% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 锅圈 恒生指数 相关研究 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 6,470 | 7,802 | 9,378 | 11,296 | | 增长率（%） | 6.2 | 20.6 | 20.2 | 20.5 | | 经调整净利润 | 311 | 463 | 589 | 728 | | 增长率（%） | 3.1 | 48.9 | 27.3 | 23.6 | | EPS(基于经调整净利润） | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.27 | | P/E(基于经调整净利润） | 34 | 22 | 18 | 14 | | P/B | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股 ...

资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测（注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 30 日收盘价,汇率 1HKD=0.89RMB） | 推荐 | 首次评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 4.26 港元 | 锅圈（2517.HK）2025 年业绩预告点评 业绩兑现优秀，聚力共进迈步 2026 glmszqdatemark [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 6,470 | 7,802 | 9,378 | 11,296 | | 增长率（%） | 6.2 | 20.6 | 20.2 | 20.5 | | 经调整净利润 | 311 | 463 | 589 | 728 | | 增长率（%） | 3.1 | 48.9 | 27.3 | 23.6 | | EPS(基于经调整净利润） | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 0.27 | | P/E(基于经调整净利润） | 34 | 22 | 18 | 14 | | ...

酒饮到家同样具备与锅圈当前发展阶段高度契合的优势。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜ Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，锅圈食品（02517.HK，以下简称"锅圈"）于2月4日发布公告称，将在门店体系 内采购并售卖宋河酒业相关产品。 根据锅圈数天前发布的盈利预告，锅圈预计2025年实现收入77.5亿元至78.5亿元，同比增长 19.8%至21.3%；预计实现净利润4.43亿元至4.63亿元，同比增长83.7%至92%；预计实现核心 经营利润4.5亿元至4.7亿元，同比增长44.8%至51.2%。截至2025年12月31日，锅圈全国门店总 数达11566家，相较于2024年12月31日，门店数量增加1416家。 这意味着，锅圈已从"稳规模、修模型"的阶段，逐步进入到"规模与盈利能力同时释放"的区间。尤 其是在四季度门店数量重新提速的情况下，利润端并未被摊薄，反而保持弹性，反映出单店模型和品 类结构正在发生实质性改善。 在这样的背景下，酒饮到家的战略权重逐步上移。 据了解，酒饮相关商品在锅圈整体销售结 构中目 前占比 仍然不高，但增长速度较快，其覆盖的消费场景横跨家庭日常 ...

GUOQUAN FOOD (SHANGHAI) CO., LTD. 鍋圈食品（上海）股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） （股份代號：2517） 持續關連交易 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 採購框架協議 採購框架協議 董事會宣布，於2026年2月4日，董事會審議通過相關議案，同意本公司（代表 本集團）與宋河集團訂立採購框架協議。據此，本集團向宋河集團採購酒水產 品。 上市規則的涵義 截至本公告日期，鍋圈實業持有本公司已發行股本總額（不包括庫存股份）的 33.52%，為本公司控股股東之一。截至本公告日期，宋河股份為本公司控股股 東鍋圈實業的間接附屬公司。因此，宋河集團根據上市規則第14A章為本公司 的關連人士。宋河集團持續為本集團供應酒水產品。因此，訂立採購框架協議 及據此擬進行的交易，構成上市規則項下本公司的持續關連交易。 由於就上市規則第14A章而言，採購框架協議的年度上限最高適用百分比率超 過0.1%但低於5 ...

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 鍋圈食品(上海)股份有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月3日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02517 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 2,747,360,400 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 2,747,360,400 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 2,747,360,400 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 2,747,360,400 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 2,747,360,400 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月 ...

核心经营利润率同比改善。以预估值中值计算，2025 年公司核心经营利润率为5.9%，同比提升约 1.1pct，2025H1 及H2 基本维持稳定。预计公司毛利率水平维持稳定，规模效应下销售费用率、管理费 用率优化潜力较大。公司于2025 年11 月捐赠1,000 万港元驰援香港大埔火灾救援，对当期净利润有小幅 影响。 盈利预测及投资建议：预计2025-2027 年公司核心经营利润4.60、6.14、7.79 亿元，归母净利润4.37、 6.00、7.64 亿元，PE 分别为24X、17X、14X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 机构：长江证券 研究员：董思远/范晨昊 事件描述 公司公布业绩预告，预计2025 年收入77.5 亿元至78.5 亿元，同比增长约19.8%至21.3%；净利润4.43 亿 元至4.63 亿元，同比增长约83.7%至92.0%；核心经营利润4.5 亿元至4.7 亿元，同比增长约44.8%至 51.2%。截至2025 年12 月31 日，门店数量已达到11,566 家，较2024 年12 月31 日的门店数量增加了 1,416 家。 事件评论 门店网络持续扩张，店均收入稳定增长。2025 ...

机构：华安证券 研究员：邓欣 公司发布2025 年业绩预告： 25H2 验证公司下沉门店模型优秀，加盟商合作意愿维持高位。未来展望看，下沉市场低渗透率下，公 司有望加速开店，规模效应持续释放带动盈利能力提升贡献业绩弹性，同时公司存在锅圈小炒新店型、 出海扩张等看涨期权。 盈利预测：我们维持前期盈利预测，预计公司25-27 年实现营业总收入76.46/90.31/106.19 亿元，同比 +18.2%/18.1%/17.6%；实现归母净利润4.29/5.81/7.49 亿元，同比+86.2%/35.3%/29.0%；当前股价对应PE 分别为24/18/14 倍，维持"买入"评级。 单店改善：我们测算公司25Q4 单店约6.4 万/月，同比增长8.7%，延续改善趋势，25H1/25Q2 公司单店 各同比增长7.8%/3.0%，预计主因质价比引流+品类拓展+新零售扩张+会员体系建设持续见效，推动门 店客单量与复购率提升。 盈利：规模效应+运营提效 25Q4 公司核心经营利润率中枢7.7%，同比增长1.2pct，我们预计毛利率端贡献有限，期间费率在规模 效应+运营提效下优化更多。 投资建议：维持"买入" 我们的观点： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company has announced its earnings forecast for 2025, expecting revenue between 7.75 billion to 7.85 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 19.8% to 21.3%. Net profit is projected to be between 443 million to 463 million, indicating a year-on-year increase of about 83.7% to 92.0%. Core operating profit is expected to be between 450 million to 470 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 44.8% to 51.2% [2][4]. - As of December 31, 2025, the number of stores is expected to reach 11,566, an increase of 1,416 stores compared to December 31, 2024 [2][4]. - The growth in revenue, net profit, and core operating profit is primarily attributed to the company's ongoing expansion into rural markets and steady growth in other regions. The company has implemented a community central kitchen strategy, enhancing operational efficiency and driving profit margins [5][6]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts 2025 revenue of 7.75 billion to 7.85 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 19.8% to 21.3%. Net profit is expected to be between 443 million to 463 million, showing a growth of 83.7% to 92.0%. Core operating profit is projected at 450 million to 470 million, reflecting a growth of 44.8% to 51.2% [2][4]. Store Expansion - The total number of stores is anticipated to reach 11,566 by December 31, 2025, marking an increase of 1,416 stores from the previous year [2][4]. Operational Efficiency - The company is expected to improve its core operating profit margin to approximately 5.9% in 2025, an increase of about 1.1 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin is expected to remain stable, with significant potential for optimizing sales and management expense ratios [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company is expected to accelerate store openings in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a focus on penetrating lower-tier markets, which will enhance revenue and profitability [10][14] - The company has achieved significant improvements in single-store performance, with a monthly average of approximately 64,000, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [14] - The core operating profit margin for the company is projected to be 7.7%, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points, driven by scale effects and operational efficiency [9] Revenue Summary - The company has exceeded its store opening targets, adding 805 new stores in Q4 2025, significantly higher than the 250 and 361 stores added in H1 and Q3 of 2025 respectively [14] - Revenue for Q4 2025 is forecasted to be 2.61 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, while the total revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 7.8 billion, up 20.6% year-on-year [13] Profitability Summary - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 429 million in 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 86.2% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.08 in 2024 to 0.16 in 2025, indicating strong growth potential [15] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to generate total revenues of 7.646 billion, 9.031 billion, and 10.619 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.2%, 18.1%, and 17.6% [11] - The projected net profit for 2026 and 2027 is 581 million and 749 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.3% and 29.0% [11]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [3] Core Views - The company is expected to accelerate store openings in the second half of 2025, with a strong willingness from franchisees to cooperate, particularly in underpenetrated markets [10] - The company achieved a core operating profit margin of 7.7% in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points, driven by scale effects and operational efficiency improvements [9] - Revenue for Q4 2025 is projected at 2.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, while the core operating profit is expected to reach 200 million yuan, up 41.8% year-on-year [13] Revenue Summary - The company exceeded its store opening targets, adding 805 new stores in Q4 2025, significantly accelerating compared to previous quarters [14] - The average monthly revenue per store in Q4 2025 is estimated at 64,000 yuan, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth [14] - Total revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 7.646 billion, 9.031 billion, and 10.619 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 18.2%, 18.1%, and 17.6% respectively [11] Profitability Summary - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 429 million, 581 million, and 749 million yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 86.2%, 35.3%, and 29.0% respectively [11] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the next three years are 24, 18, and 14 times [11] Financial Indicators - Key financial indicators for 2025 include a return on equity (ROE) of 12.72% and earnings per share (EPS) of 0.16 yuan [15] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 21.79% to 21.93% over the forecast period [16]