Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoquan, is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth by 2025, driven by its expansion into rural markets and strategic store upgrades [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Guoquan forecasts revenue between 7.75 billion to 7.85 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8% to 21.3% [1][3]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 443 million to 463 million yuan, indicating a growth of 83.7% to 92% compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The core operating profit is expected to be between 450 million to 470 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.8% to 51.2% [3]. Group 2: Store Expansion and Strategy - As of December 31, 2025, Guoquan plans to have a total of 11,566 stores nationwide, an increase of 1,416 stores from the previous year [2][4]. - The company is implementing a large store transformation strategy in 2026, leveraging its supply chain and digital capabilities to enhance operational efficiency [2][7]. Group 3: Business Model and Market Position - Guoquan focuses on a unique business model that integrates community retail, hot pot ingredients, and supply chain management, catering to the demand for home dining experiences [3]. - The company has completed five rounds of financing, raising nearly 2.6 billion yuan, and successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in November 2023 [3]. Group 4: Recent Acquisitions - In 2024, Guoquan acquired a 41% stake in Beihai Daixiaji Food Co., increasing its total ownership to 51%, enhancing its control over the upstream supply chain [5]. - The company has invested 180 million yuan in Songhe Distillery during a 16-month management period, marking the beginning of the "Guoquan Era" for the distillery [6]. Group 5: Operational Efficiency - Guoquan reported a core operating profit of approximately 65 million to 75 million yuan in Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of about 44.4% to 66.7% [7]. - The company is adopting new retail models, including 24-hour unmanned retail, to improve store operational efficiency and enhance customer engagement [7].

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月01日 锅圈（02517.HK） 利润率优化明显，门店扩张驱动高增长 优于大市 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 社会服务·酒店餐饮 | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 张向伟 | | zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090001 | | 证券分析师： | 曾光 | 0755-82150809 | zengguang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980511040003 | | 证券分析师： | 张鲁 | 010-88005377 | zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521120002 | | 联系人： | 王新雨 | 021-60875135 | wangxinyu8@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 公司公告：锅圈发布盈利预告，2025 年全年预计实现收入约 77.50-78.50 亿元，同比增长约 19.8%-21.3%； 预计录得净利润约 4.43 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoquan (锅圈), is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in 2025, with projected revenues of 7.75 billion to 7.85 billion yuan and net profits of 443 million to 463 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.8% to 21.3% in revenue and 83.7% to 92% in profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2022, the company reached a revenue peak of 7.173 billion yuan but experienced a 15% decline in 2023 to 6.094 billion yuan due to decreased demand for home hot pot following the end of public health events [1] - The company anticipates a slight recovery in 2024 with revenues increasing to 6.47 billion yuan, although still below the 2022 peak [1] - The expansion of store openings is a key factor driving the anticipated performance rebound in 2025, with a target of opening 10,000 new stores by the end of that year [1][3] Group 2: Store Expansion and Operations - As of 2025, the total number of stores is expected to reach 11,566, an increase of 1,416 stores from the beginning of the year, with a notable acceleration in store openings in the fourth quarter [3] - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, with 99.9% of its stores being franchisee-operated, which poses challenges in terms of store management and food safety [3][4] - Recent food safety incidents have raised concerns, including complaints about food quality and hygiene, which could impact the brand's reputation [4][6] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is exploring new business models, including a strategic investment in a smart kitchen service provider to launch "Guoquan Stir-fry," aiming to enter the smart Chinese cuisine market [6][8] - Plans for store renovations include transitioning from smaller stores of 70 square meters to larger ones of 150 square meters, with a long-term goal of establishing community central kitchens of 400 square meters [8] - The company aims to renovate 3,000 existing stores and open an additional 3,000 large stores in 2026, representing approximately 26% of the current store count [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 5.08 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 77.5-78.5 billion for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8-21.3%. The net profit is projected to be between HKD 4.4-4.6 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 83.7-92.0% [6][10]. - The company has accelerated its store openings, with a net increase of 805 stores in Q4, bringing the total to 11,566 stores. This expansion is supported by improved same-store sales and operational efficiency [7][8]. - The company is focusing on optimizing store types and innovating product categories, which are expected to drive long-term growth. The core advantages include an efficient supply chain, proprietary product development, and a large-scale operation [9][10]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: RMB 6,470 million - 2025: RMB 7,779 million (growth of 20.23%) - 2026: RMB 9,049 million (growth of 16.32%) - 2027: RMB 10,509 million (growth of 16.14%) [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be: - 2024: RMB 230.56 million - 2025: RMB 453.50 million (growth of 96.70%) - 2026: RMB 547.95 million (growth of 20.83%) - 2027: RMB 676.78 million (growth of 23.51%) [5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 0.11 in 2024 to RMB 0.25 in 2027 [5]. Operational Highlights - The company has implemented strategies to enhance same-store sales through membership programs and promotional activities, resulting in an estimated same-store sales growth of approximately 6.5% in Q4 [7][8]. - The core operating profit for the second half of 2025 is expected to reach RMB 2.7 billion, with a corresponding core operating profit margin of about 5.9% [8]. - The company is investing in supply chain capabilities and has initiated the construction of an international food industry park in Hainan, which is expected to leverage favorable tax policies [9].

[Table_Page] 公告点评|食品与主要用品零售Ⅱ 证券研究报告 | Table_Invest] [公司评级 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 4.31 港元 | | 合理价值 | 5.18 港元 | | 前次评级 | 增持 | | 报告日期 | 2026-01-30 | 核心观点： *除非特别说明，否则报告货币为人民币 ⚫ 事件：公司发布 2025 年正面盈利预告。公司预计 2025 年实现收入 77.5~78.5 亿元，同比+19.8%~+21.3%；预计实现净利润 4.43~4.63 亿 元，同比+83.7%~+92.0%；预计实现核心经营利润 4.50~4.70 亿元， 同比+44.8%~+51.2%，全年收入和利润增长亮眼。 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 6,094 | 6,470 | 7,802 | 9,424 | 11,363 | | 增长率（ % ...

Core Viewpoint - Guoquan Food (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. has released a positive profit forecast for 2025, expecting significant revenue and profit growth driven by market expansion and operational efficiency improvements [1][2][3] Financial Performance - For the year ending December 31, 2025, Guoquan anticipates revenue between 7.75 billion to 7.85 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8% to 21.3% [1][2] - The company projects a net profit of 443 million to 463 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 83.7% to 92% [1][2] - Core operating profit is expected to be between 450 million to 470 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 44.8% to 51.2% year-on-year [1][2] Market Expansion Strategy - The board attributes the performance growth to the company's aggressive expansion into rural markets and steady growth in other regions [3] - As of December 31, 2025, Guoquan plans to have a total of 11,566 stores nationwide, an increase of 1,416 stores compared to December 31, 2024 [3] Strategic Initiatives - Starting in 2024, Guoquan has positioned itself as a community central kitchen, focusing on multi-channel and multi-scenario layouts to enhance retail efficiency [2][3] - The company is implementing new retail models, including 24-hour unmanned stores, to improve operational efficiency and drive same-store sales growth [2][3] - Guoquan is also actively developing new rural store formats to enhance operational efficiency and continue expanding store numbers [2][3] - In 2026, the company plans to implement a large store transformation strategy, leveraging its established supply chain and digital capabilities to inject new growth potential into its existing scale [2][3]

Group 1 - The company, Guoquan Food (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., forecasts a revenue of 7.75 billion to 7.85 billion yuan for the year ending December 31, 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8% to 21.3% [3] - The projected net profit is estimated to be between 443 million to 463 million yuan, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 83.7% to 92% [3] - The core operating profit is expected to reach 450 million to 470 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 44.8% to 51.2% compared to the previous year [3] Group 2 - The growth in performance is attributed to the company's ongoing efforts to expand into rural markets and steadily develop other regional markets, with a total of 11,566 stores nationwide as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1,416 stores from December 31, 2024 [3] - The company has adopted a community central kitchen as its strategic positioning since 2024, actively pursuing a multi-channel and multi-scenario layout to enhance retail efficiency [4] - The introduction of new retail models, such as 24-hour unmanned retail formats, has been implemented to improve store operational efficiency, alongside deep member operations to boost same-store sales [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoquan (02517), has announced a positive earnings forecast for the fiscal year 2025, projecting significant revenue and profit growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Projections - The company expects revenue for the fiscal year 2025 to be approximately RMB 77.5 billion to RMB 78.5 billion, representing an increase of about 19.8% to 21.3% from RMB 64.7 billion in fiscal year 2024 [1]. - The projected net profit for fiscal year 2025 is estimated to be around RMB 4.43 billion to RMB 4.63 billion, which indicates a substantial increase of approximately 83.7% to 92.0% from RMB 2.41 billion in fiscal year 2024 [1]. - The anticipated core operating profit (non-IFRS measure) for fiscal year 2025 is expected to be between RMB 4.5 billion and RMB 4.7 billion, reflecting an increase of about 44.8% to 51.2% from RMB 3.11 billion in fiscal year 2024 [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The board attributes the expected growth in revenue, net profit, and core operating profit to the company's ongoing efforts to expand into rural markets and steadily develop other regional markets [2]. - As of December 31, 2025, the number of stores is projected to reach 11,566, an increase of 1,416 stores compared to December 31, 2024 [2]. - The growth in store count, combined with increased revenue per store and improved operational efficiency, is expected to drive profit margins and core operating profit margins higher [2]. - The company is committed to its community central kitchen strategy, utilizing a multi-channel and multi-scenario approach, integrating online and offline operations to enhance the expansion of its instant retail store network and improve store operational efficiency [2].

消息面上，1月29日，锅圈发布公告，预期本集团2025年度(截至2025年12月31日止年度)取得收入约人 民币77.5亿元至人民币78.5亿元，较截至2024年12月31日止年度(2024年度)的收入人民币64.7亿元上升约 19.8%至21.3%。预期本集团2025年度取得净利润约人民币4.43亿元至人民币4.63亿元，较截至2024年度 的净利润人民币2.41亿元上升约83.7%至92.0%。预期本集团2025年度取得核心经营利润(非国际财务报 告准则计量)约人民币4.5亿元至人民币4.7亿元，较截至2024年度的核心经营利润人民币3.11亿元上升约 44.8%至51.2%。 智通财经APP获悉，锅圈(02517)盈喜后高开逾5%，截至发稿，涨5.1%，报4.53港元，成交额233.93万港 元。 董事会认为，本集团2025年度收入、净利润及核心经营利润上升的主要原因为本集团通过持续大力开拓 乡镇市场，并稳步拓展其他地区的市场，截至2025年12月31日的门店数量达到11566家，较2024年12月 31日的门店数量增长了1416家。随着规模扩张及店均收入的增长，叠加运营效率的优化，共同驱动利润 率及核 ...

对此，锅圈董事会表示，业绩增长主要原因为集团持续大力开拓乡镇市场，并稳步拓展其他地区的市 场。截至2025年12月31日，锅圈全国门店总数达11566家，相较于2024年12月31日，门店数量增加1416 家。随着规模扩张及店均收入增长，叠加运营效率的优化，共同驱动利润率及核心经营利润率的增长。 北京商报讯（记者 郭缤璐）1月29日，锅圈食品（上海）股份有限公司（以下简称"锅圈"）发布2025年 正面盈利预告。公告显示，截至2025年12月31日，锅圈预计实现收入77.50亿元至78.50亿元，同比增长 19.8%至21.3%；预计实现净利润4.43亿元至4.63亿元，同比增长83.7%至92.0%；预计实现核心经营利润 4.5亿元至4.7亿元，同比增长44.8%至51.2%。 ...