Core Insights - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) has seen a significant decrease in both share count and total assets in 2024, with shares down 41.46% and assets down 26.98% year-to-date [1][2] Fund Overview - The fund was established on September 4, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1] - As of November 19, 2024, the fund's total shares stood at 72.08 million, with a total size of 107 million yuan [1] Performance Metrics - The fund manager, Li Qian, has achieved a return of 50.85% since taking over management on September 4, 2024 [2] - The fund's performance benchmark is the Hang Seng Stock Connect High Dividend Low Volatility Index [1] Liquidity Analysis - Over the last 20 trading days, the ETF has accumulated a trading volume of 843 million yuan, averaging 42.17 million yuan per day [1] - Year-to-date, the ETF has recorded a total trading volume of 4.22 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 19.73 million yuan [1] Top Holdings - The ETF's top holdings include Shougang Resources (3.76%), Yanzhou Coal Mining (2.94%), and VTECH Holdings (2.76%), among others [2] - The total market value of the top holdings reflects a diversified investment strategy within the fund [2]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks continue to decline, with notable drops in major companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy, indicating a bearish trend in the coal sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the latest report, China Coal Energy (01898) fell by 4.48% to HKD 10.87, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) decreased by 3.71% to HKD 10.63, China Shenhua Energy (01088) dropped by 1.56% to HKD 40.36, and Yancoal Australia (03668) declined by 0.87% to HKD 27.22 [1] Group 2: Coal Price Trends - Coal prices have risen above RMB 830 per ton, but a short-term peak in coal prices may have been reached. In October, the output of industrial raw coal was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but month-on-month stable [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the recent price increases, suggesting a long-term upward trend in coal prices remains intact [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - According to Dongwu Securities, coal companies are expected to see their earnings bottom out starting from the third quarter, with coal prices projected to stabilize as they are anticipated to reach a low point in Q2 2025. This stability is expected to benefit leading companies, ensuring consistent profitability [1] - The expected decline in insurance capital costs may lead to a decrease in dividend yields for major players like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal from approximately 4.5% in 2025 to around 3.5% by mid-2026 [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171.HK) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06 [1] - Yancoal Australia (03668.HK) has dropped 3.42%, trading at HKD 27.64 [1] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) is down 2.73%, currently at HKD 40.6 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898.HK) has decreased by 2.47%, with a price of HKD 11.46 [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (01171) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06, Yancoal Australia (03668) down 3.42% to HKD 27.64, China Shenhua Energy (01088) down 2.73% to HKD 40.6, and China Coal Energy (01898) down 2.47% to HKD 11.46 [1] - Despite a year-on-year decline in coal prices expected through the first three quarters of 2025, there has been a noticeable quarter-on-quarter recovery in coal prices in the third quarter due to the impact of "anti-involution" [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, coal prices have risen above CNY 830 per ton, and it is believed that the short-term unexpected rise in coal prices may be coming to an end [1] Group 2 - In October, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent rise in coal prices since May is a significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry, indicating that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices is unlikely to change [1]

Group 1 - Coal stocks have seen significant declines, with Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188) down 3.57% to HKD 11.06, Yancoal Australia (03668) down 3.42% to HKD 27.64, China Shenhua Energy (601088) down 2.73% to HKD 40.6, and China Coal Energy (601898) down 2.47% to HKD 11.46 [1] - The coal prices are expected to continue to decline year-on-year until the third quarter of 2025, with coal companies' performance also expected to drop year-on-year. However, due to the "anti-involution" effect, coal prices have shown a significant recovery on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter, leading to improved quarterly performance for coal companies [1] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, if coal prices rise above CNY 830 per ton, the short-term unexpected increase in coal prices may come to an end [1] Group 2 - In October, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%, but remained stable on a month-on-month basis [1] - The fundamental reason for the recent increase in coal prices since May is a significant reversal in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry. This core change indicates that the medium-term upward trend in coal prices will not be altered [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [4][12] - The coal price is expected to rise due to factors such as cold weather and low inventory levels at ports, which may drive demand quickly [4][12] - The coal sector remains undervalued, with a strong potential for price recovery and high dividend yields, making it a favorable investment opportunity [4][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 15, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 CNY/ton, up 19 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1830 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 91.2%, up 0.1 percentage points week-on-week, while for coking coal it is 86.28%, up 2.5 percentage points [4][12] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 12.3 thousand tons/day (+3.8%), while consumption in coastal provinces decreased by 8.0 thousand tons/day (-4.26%) [4][12] Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in coastal provinces increased by 464 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 2.517 million tons [4][12] Company Performance - The coal sector's performance is highlighted by companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, which are noted for their stable operations and strong earnings [13][14]

Group 1 - The coal stocks have collectively retreated after a period of continuous increase, with notable declines in companies such as China Coal Energy, which fell over 4%, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, which dropped 3% [1] - Despite a year-on-year decline in coal prices expected until the third quarter of 2025, there has been a significant quarter-on-quarter recovery in coal prices and improved performance for coal companies in the third quarter [1] - An increasing number of financial institutions, investment funds, and insurance companies are incorporating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors into their investment decisions, leading to restrictions or withdrawals from coal-related projects, resulting in higher financing costs for coal companies [1] Group 2 - Short-term factors such as economic recovery, extreme weather, and geopolitical issues may create trading opportunities due to tight coal supply and demand, although high volatility should be noted [1] - The latest price movements of various coal companies indicate a downward trend, with specific declines such as Feishang Non-Ferrous Coal down 8.58% and China Shenhua down 2.76% [1]

Group 1 - Hong Kong coal stocks experienced significant declines, with China Coal Energy (01898.HK) dropping by 3.32% to HKD 11.65 [2] - Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171.HK) fell by 2.81%, trading at HKD 11.43 [2] - China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) decreased by 2.39%, with a price of HKD 42.42 [2] - Yancoal Australia (03668.HK) saw a decline of 1.71%, priced at HKD 28.8 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with major companies like China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy reporting drops in their stock prices amid a backdrop of falling coal prices and mixed quarterly performance [1] Company Performance - China Coal Energy reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.86 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, but the decline is less severe compared to a 31.5% drop in the first half of the year [1] - China Shenhua Energy's net profit for Q3 was 14.411 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [1] Market Trends - Coal prices are expected to continue to decline year-on-year through the first three quarters of 2025, although there has been a noticeable recovery in Q3 compared to previous quarters [1] - The current coal prices are nearing short-term peaks, with expectations of a slight decline as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the recent price increases, indicating a long-term upward trend in coal prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the coal economy is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance. It is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels [11]. - The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged. The coal price has established a bottom and its central level has reached a new platform. High - quality coal enterprises maintain their core asset attributes, and coal assets are still undervalued with potential for valuation improvement. The coal sector has both dividend characteristics and pro - cyclical elasticity [3]. - In the context of energy inflation, the pattern of tight coal supply and demand in the next 3 - 5 years remains unchanged. High - quality coal enterprises have high - barrier, high - cash, high - dividend, and high - dividend - yield attributes. After a short - term correction, the coal sector has shown high investment value [3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Core Viewpoints and Key Concerns - **Core Viewpoints**: In the short - term, coal supply and demand are basically balanced, but there is a long - term gap. Coal prices are expected to rise further due to tight supply and upcoming seasonal demand. Coal assets are cost - effective, with high win - rate and high odds. The report continues to be bullish on coal and suggests allocation at low levels [11]. - **Key Concerns**: From January to October 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 11.0% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, coal and coking coal imports in India decreased by 1.0% year - on - year, and in Japan decreased by 2.3% year - on - year [13] 3.2 This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector rose 4.43% this week, outperforming the market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.82% [14]. - The thermal coal sector rose 4.60%, the coking coal sector rose 2.46%, and the coke sector rose 6.42% [15]. - The top three stocks in terms of gains and losses in the coal mining and washing sector were Huayang Co., Ltd. (11.50%), Jinkong Coal Industry (10.11%), and China National Coal Group Corporation (8.54%) [18] 3.3 Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of November 7, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 703.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 694.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term contract price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 684.0 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [23]. - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of November 8, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) from Shanxi was 808 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. International thermal coal FOB prices also increased [29]. - **Coking Coal Price**: As of November 7, the ex - warehouse price of primary coking coal from Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1800 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CIF price of Australian Peak View Mine hard coking coal in China was 212.3 US dollars/ton, up 0.6 US dollars/ton week - on - week [31]. - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: As of November 7, the wagon - loading price of Jiaozuo anthracite was 1020.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The wagon - loading prices of pulverized coal in Changzhi Lucheng and Yangquan increased [39] 3.4 Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of November 7, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 91.1%, up 0.6 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 83.76%, down 1.0 percentage points week - on - week [46]. - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of November 7, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal thermal coal was - 79.1 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price difference for 4000 - kcal thermal coal was - 75.2 yuan/ton, down 20.1 yuan/ton week - on - week [42]. - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces' coal inventory increased, while daily consumption decreased. Coastal 8 provinces' coal inventory decreased, while daily consumption increased [45]. - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of November 7, the Myspic comprehensive steel price index decreased, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke increased, the blast furnace operating rate increased, and the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises increased [64][65]. - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of November 7, the prices of urea in some regions decreased, the national methanol, ethylene glycol, and acetic acid price indices decreased, the synthetic ammonia price index increased, the cement price index increased slightly, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry increased [70][74][76] 3.5 Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of November 7, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased to 577.0 tons. The 55 - port thermal coal inventory decreased to 6148.7 tons as of October 31, and the production - area inventory decreased to 292.0 tons [91]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of November 7, the production - area coking coal inventory increased to 165.6 tons, the six - port coking coal inventory increased to 304.3 tons, the coking enterprise inventory increased to 923.8 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased to 787.3 tons [92]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of November 7, the total coke inventory of coking plants, four - port coke inventory, and the total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills all decreased [94] 3.6 Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of November 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2104.0 points, up 138.0 points week - on - week. As of November 6, the average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway increased slightly week - on - week [108]. - **Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of November 7, the inventory of four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1449.0 tons, the number of anchored ships was 106, and the cargo - to - ship ratio was 13.7, down 4.03 week - on - week [106] 3.7 Weather Conditions - As of November 7, the Three Gorges outflow was 10200 cubic meters per second, down 23.88% week - on - week. - In the next 10 days (November 9 - 18), there will be precipitation in some areas, with high - impact weather including cooling in Xinjiang and central - eastern regions. - In the next 11 - 14 days (November 19 - 22), there will be light precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some regions will be different from the normal level [113] 3.8 Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table provides the closing prices, net profits attributable to the parent company, EPS, and P/E ratios of key listed coal companies from 2024A to 2027E [114]. - **Key Announcements**: Companies such as Meijin Energy, China Shenhua, and Hengyuan Coal and Electricity have made announcements regarding project terminations, asset acquisitions, and corporate restructurings [115][116][118]