证券代码：600039 证券简称：四川路桥 公告编号：2025-065 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司 第八届董事会第五十七次会议决议的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 （一）本次董事会会议的召开符合《公司法》、公司《章程》的规定。 （二）本次董事会于 2025 年 6 月 27 日在公司以现场结合通讯方式召开，会 议通知于 2025 年 6 月 20 日以书面、电话的方式发出。 （三）本次董事会应出席人数 10 人，实际出席人数 10 人。其中董事李黔 以通讯方式参会。 （四）本次董事会由董事长孙立成主持，公司部分监事及高级管理人员列 席会议。 二、董事会会议审议情况 （一）审议通过了《关于重组标的资产业绩承诺期满减值测试情况的议案》 根据公司与蜀道投资集团有限责任公司、四川高速公路建设开发集团有限公 司、四川藏区高速公路有限责任公司和四川高路文化旅游发展有限责任公司（以 下简称业绩补偿义务人）签署的《业绩补偿协议》等相关协议，公司委托四川天 健华衡资产评估有限公司对四川省交通建设集 ...

四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司 2024 年度第二期中期票据 2025 年付息完成公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 证券代码：600039 证券简称：四川路桥 公告编号：2025-063 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司董事会 2025年6月24日 1 0505200555444444052X 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司(以下简称公司)2024 年度第二期中期票据(24 四川路桥 MTN002)，发行金额为人民币 7 亿元，票面利率为 2.20%，期限 3 年， 起息日为 2024 年 6 月 21 日，兑付日为 2027 年 6 月 21 日(具体内容详见公司公告 编号为 2024-059 的《四川路桥 2024 年度第二期中期票据发行结果公告》)。 公司按期完成了 2024 年度第二期中期票据 2025 年付息工作，付息金额为人 民币 15,400,000.00 元，付息资金由银行间市场清算所股份有限公司划付至债券持 有人指定的银行账户。 特此公告。 ...

证券代码：600039 证券简称：四川路桥 公告编号：2025-062 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司 关于全资子公司向其控股子公司 提供财务资助的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司（以下简称公司）分别于 2025 年 3 月 4 日、 2025 年 3 月 20 日召开了第八届董事会第五十三次会议、2025 年第三次临时股东 会，审议通过了《关于全资子公司向其控股子公司提供财务资助的议案》，同意 公司全资子公司四川公路桥梁建设集团有限公司（以下简称路桥集团）向其控 股子公司眉山天环基础设施项目开发有限责任公司（以下简称眉山天环公司） 提供不超过 32,086 万元借款，借款期限为 3 年，利率不高于贷款市场报价利率， 具体以实际借款协议为准。同时，眉山天环公司参股股东蜀道投资集团有限责 任公司（以下简称蜀道集团）也将向其提供借款，借款条件同路桥集团。（具体 内容详见公司在上海证券交易所网站披露的公告编号为 2025-023 的《四川路桥 关于全资子公司向其控股子公司提供财务资 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Heston Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The Heston model is used to calculate the implied volatility of near-month at-the-money options, serving as a market fear index. Implied volatility reflects market participants' expectations of future volatility [8]. - **Model Construction Process**: The Heston model is a stochastic volatility model where the variance of the asset price follows a mean-reverting square-root process. The model is defined by the following equations: $ dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sqrt{v_t} S_t dW_t^1 $ $ dv_t = \kappa (\theta - v_t) dt + \sigma \sqrt{v_t} dW_t^2 $ Here: - \( S_t \): Asset price - \( v_t \): Variance - \( \mu \): Drift rate - \( \kappa \): Mean reversion speed - \( \theta \): Long-term variance - \( \sigma \): Volatility of variance - \( W_t^1, W_t^2 \): Correlated Wiener processes [8] 2. Model Name: Multi-Sector Timing Model (Scissor Difference Strategy) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the difference in the number of bullish and bearish signals among sector constituents to construct a timing strategy. If no bullish or bearish signals are present, the scissor difference is set to zero. The model aims to outperform sector indices [16]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Count the number of bullish and bearish signals for each sector's constituent stocks daily. - Compute the scissor difference as the difference between bullish and bearish signals. - If both counts are zero, the scissor difference is set to zero. - Construct a timing strategy based on the scissor difference ratio [16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model historically outperformed all sector indices, demonstrating excellent backtesting performance [16]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Heston Model - **Implied Volatility Results**: - SSE 50: 11.85% (down 0.88% WoW) - SSE 500: 14.35% (down 1.59% WoW) - CSI 1000: 18.06% (down 0.42% WoW) - CSI 300: 12.64% (down 0.73% WoW) [10] 2. Multi-Sector Timing Model - **Sector Outperformance**: The model outperformed all sector indices, achieving a 100% success rate in backtesting [16]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Factor Construction Idea**: Shape-based signals are derived from historical K-line patterns, including bullish patterns (e.g., "Golden Needle Bottom," "Rocket Launch," "Manjianghong") and bearish patterns (e.g., "Hanging Line," "Paradise Line," "Dark Cloud Cover"). These patterns indicate potential price reversals [24]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify specific K-line patterns based on predefined criteria. - Evaluate the historical performance of these patterns in predicting price movements. - Use the patterns to generate timing signals for individual stocks [24]. - **Factor Evaluation**: Bullish patterns like "Golden Needle Bottom" and "Rocket Launch" demonstrated strong positive predictive power [24]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Shape-Based Timing Signals - **Signal Statistics**: - Positive signals: 2,699 occurrences, with an average future high-point success rate of 28.25% - Negative signals: 3,525 occurrences, with an average future low-point success rate of 71.88% [13] 2. Sector Timing Signals - **Bullish Sectors**: Home Appliances, Comprehensive, Communication, Textile & Apparel, Consumer Services, Transportation, Petrochemicals [19] 3. Stock-Specific Signals - **Consecutive Bullish Signals**: - 5-day signals: Stocks like Kailong Co. and Shipu Testing [21] - 4-day signals: Stocks like Jiangnan Chemical, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Nandu Property [22][23] - **Special Bullish Patterns**: - Stocks like Retired Longyu ("Arrow on the String") and Suotong Development ("Manjianghong") [25][26] 4. Broker Gold Stock Signals - **Highlighted Stocks**: BYD, Feilihua, Wancheng Group, Sichuan Road & Bridge, Wolong Electric Drive, Lansheng Co., PetroChina, Dongpeng Beverage [29][33]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 06 22 年 月 日 四川路桥（600039.SH） 再论四川路桥高分红的持续性如何？ 四川交通基建需求广阔、财政充沛，四川路桥订单充裕、有望向业绩持续 转化。 从四川交通基建需求来看，2024 年四川完成公路水路交通固定资产投资 2608 亿元，连续 4 年超 2000 亿元，2024 年占全国的比为 9.3%，连续 4 年稳步提升，2015-2024 年投资额复合增速 8.2%；2024 年底四川高速公 路通车里程 10310 公里，占全国的比为 5.4%，连续 10 年占比提升。四 川规划到 2035 年高速公路网达 2 万公里，因此未来 10 年省内高速公路 有翻倍建设空间。此外，四川省已被明确定义为国家战略腹地省市，预计 后续将在国家战略腹地建设中占据核心地位，若后续国家战略腹地顶层设 计出台，四川高速公路项目及大量基建项目有望获国家专项补助资金，保 障项目现金流、利润率，并驱动项目加快推进。 从四川财政情况来看，2024 年四川省地方财政收入 5635 亿元，全国排名 第 7；地方财政支出 1.34 万亿元，全国排名第 3。四川财政 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The western fixed asset investment (FAI) is experiencing high growth, with the issuance of special bonds accelerating, which will provide stronger support for infrastructure [1][21] - The GDP growth rate in the western region from 2019 to 2024 has reached a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7%, with significant support from central financial policies and national strategic planning [28][32] - The issuance of special bonds in the central and western regions has significantly accelerated, with a notable increase in new special bonds in provinces like Sichuan and Shaanxi [21][32] Summary by Sections 1. High Prosperity of Western Fixed Asset Investment - The western region has maintained double-digit growth in FAI, with provinces like Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Tibet showing strong performance [1] - The issuance of special bonds has increased significantly, with Sichuan's issuance up by 162% year-on-year [21] 2. Investment Opportunities in Key Regions - **Sichuan-Chongqing**: The transportation planning investment in Sichuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to increase by 16.5% compared to the previous plan, benefiting local construction companies [2][36] - **Tibet**: Active mining and robust infrastructure projects are expected to drive high regional investment demand, with significant projects like the construction of major copper mines [2][48] - **Xinjiang**: The coal chemical industry is thriving, with nearly 500 billion yuan invested in the past five years, and the region is expected to see continued infrastructure support [3][60] 3. Major Infrastructure Projects Boosting Regional Investment - The construction of the Pinglu Canal is expected to significantly enhance water transport infrastructure in Guangxi, with a total investment of approximately 727 billion yuan [3] - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor is projected to connect multiple provinces and enhance regional infrastructure growth, with completion expected by 2035 [3][60] 4. Investment Recommendations - Key stocks recommended include Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, and China Energy Engineering, all rated as "Buy" [9][47]

证券代码：600039 证券简称：四川路桥 公告编号：2025-061 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司 2025 年度第一期中期票据发行结果公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 四川路桥建设集团股份有限公司（以下简称公司）于2024年7月9日、2024 年7月25日先后召开第八届董事会第四十次会议和2024年第五次临时股东大会， 审议通过了《关于统一注册多品种债务融资工具的议案》，具体内容详见公司于 2024年7月10日在上海证券交易所网站（http://www.sse.com.cn）披露的公告编 号为2024-069的《四川路桥关于统一注册发行多品种债务融资工具的公告》。 2024年9月，公司收到中国银行间市场交易商协会下发的《接受注册通知书》 （中市协注〔2024〕DFI49号），该协会决定接受公司债务融资工具注册，具体内 容详见公司于2024年9月19日在上海证券交易所网站（http://www.sse.com.cn） 披露的公告编号为2024-090的《四川路桥关于收到中国银行间市场交易商协会< 接受注册 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dividend performance of listed companies in Sichuan has shown significant improvement, characterized by increased dividend payout ratios, stable dividend amounts, and the gradual establishment of a normalized dividend mechanism, enhancing investment value [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Payout Ratio - The annual dividend payout ratio for Sichuan-listed companies reached 50.28%, an increase of 7.02 percentage points from the previous year. Approximately 40% of the 43 companies had a payout ratio exceeding 50%, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [1]. Group 2: Stability of Dividend Amounts - Despite some companies facing performance pressures, 105 Sichuan-listed companies announced a total cash dividend of 57.766 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining the same level as the previous year, even with a decrease in profitable companies. Notably, some companies with negative net profits still distributed dividends, reflecting their focus on investor relations [1]. Group 3: Leading Role of Major Companies - In 2024, seven Sichuan-listed companies distributed dividends exceeding 1 billion yuan each, collectively contributing about 43 billion yuan, which accounts for 74% of the total dividend amount [2]. Group 4: Performance of Newly Listed Companies - Over 60% of the 20 newly listed companies in the past three years introduced cash dividend plans for 2024, with an average payout ratio exceeding 50%. Six of these companies executed multiple dividend distributions within the year [2]. Group 5: Normalized Dividend Mechanism - A total of 27 companies increased their frequency of dividend payments by 285% year-on-year, with over 12 billion yuan distributed before the Spring Festival. Additionally, 61 companies have maintained continuous dividends for five years, and 53 companies have disclosed long-term return plans or sought shareholder approval for mid-term dividend strategies [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) has shown a slight increase, indicating a positive trend in state-owned enterprises' stock performance, particularly in dividend-paying stocks [1][2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index account for 15.83% of the index, highlighting the concentration of investment in a few key companies [2] - The report from Xinda Securities suggests that if significant monetary and fiscal policies are implemented, there could be improvements in M2 and M1-M2 differential, which may positively impact market conditions [1] Group 2 - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) closely tracks the performance of the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, which includes 100 listed companies with high and stable cash dividend yields [2] - As of May 30, 2025, the top weighted stocks include COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919), Jizhong Energy (000937), and Chengdu Bank (601838), among others, indicating a diverse portfolio within the index [2][4] - The report indicates that the absolute and relative price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are high, but the trading volume has decreased since early April, suggesting a potential for future market adjustments [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [12] Core Insights - The construction sector is favored for high dividend investment opportunities, particularly in Hong Kong and A-shares [2] - Key companies highlighted include China State Construction, Sichuan Road and Bridge, and international engineering firms benefiting from the Belt and Road Initiative [2][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable growth and infrastructure as a cornerstone of economic development, with significant government spending planned for 2025 [9] Summary by Sections High Dividend Opportunities - The report continues to favor high dividend investment opportunities in the construction sector, particularly focusing on state-owned enterprises and local government enterprises [2] - China State Construction is identified as a top pick due to its strong fundamentals and high dividend yield [10] Performance of Hong Kong Construction Stocks - Hong Kong construction stocks have performed well, with notable increases in share prices for companies like China Communications Construction and China Railway Group [8] - The report attributes this performance to overall market strength and significant liquidity inflows [8] A-Share Recommendations - In A-shares, China State Construction is recommended for its high dividend yield and robust order growth, with new contracts expected to reach 1.4149 trillion yuan in 2024, a 21.1% increase year-on-year [10] - Sichuan Road and Bridge is highlighted for its increasing dividend payout ratio and confidence in future growth [10] International Engineering Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential of international engineering firms, particularly those involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, with companies like China Steel International and China National Materials recommended for their high dividend yields [10] Market Outlook - The outlook for 2025 remains positive, with infrastructure investment expected to benefit from government policies and increased fiscal spending [9][10] - The report notes that the construction sector is positioned to capitalize on these trends, making it an attractive investment area [9]