Macroeconomic Insights - The US unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December, down from a revised 4.5% in November, indicating a temporary halt in concerns over job market deterioration[11] - The US manufacturing PMI declined while the services PMI increased, reflecting mixed economic signals[7] - Consumer confidence in the US continued to recover in January, with inflation expectations slightly rising[7] Market Trends - Risk assets generally rose in the week of January 2-9, 2026, with major economies' stock markets and commodity prices increasing[7] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 5.7%, while domestic 10Y government bond futures prices fell by 0.1%[7] - The dollar index increased by 0.7%, with the USD/CNY exchange rate at 6.98, indicating a slight appreciation of the yuan[7] Sector Performance - The AI application sector is expected to see significant growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 35% for the AI industry and over 63% for the large model market[23] - The consumer electronics sector, particularly smart glasses, is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected 110% year-on-year increase in global shipments in the first half of 2025[38] Investment Recommendations - It is advised to overweight A/H shares due to multiple factors supporting Chinese equity performance, including an expected expansion of the fiscal deficit and a more aggressive economic policy[18] - Gold is recommended for overweight allocation due to its strong resilience and safe-haven attributes amid rising geopolitical uncertainties[20] - The report suggests a cautious approach to oil investments, recommending a lower allocation due to expected price pressures from geopolitical events and US policy directions[20]

Group 1 - The animal vaccine sector experienced a decline of 0.04%, ranking among the top losers in the concept sector, with notable declines from companies such as Hengtong Co., BioShares, and Kanghua Bio [1] - Among the animal vaccine stocks, 9 companies saw price increases, with Dongfang Bio, KQ Bio, and Haili Bio leading the gains at 2.23%, 0.87%, and 0.77% respectively [1] - The sector faced a net outflow of 212 million yuan from main funds, with 14 stocks experiencing outflows, and 7 stocks seeing outflows exceeding 10 million yuan, led by Roniu Mountain with a net outflow of 82.38 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top stocks with net outflows included BioShares, Hengtong Co., and Kanghua Bio, with net outflows of 41.91 million yuan, 41.77 million yuan, and 24.74 million yuan respectively [2] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net inflows were Dabeinong, Haili Bio, and Guoyao Modern, with net inflows of 32.76 million yuan, 6.20 million yuan, and 3.24 million yuan respectively [2] - The trading data indicated that Roniu Mountain had a trading rate of 8.05% and a price drop of 1.05%, while Dongfang Bio had a trading rate of 1.46% and a price increase of 2.23% [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The sentiment in the pork market has significantly improved, with a notable reduction in losses for pig farming. The average price of live pigs is currently 12.55 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a steady adjustment in pig production capacity [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a nationwide inspection of winter crop seeds to ensure safety for the upcoming spring and summer planting seasons. This includes a focus on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables. The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency rates for critical varieties [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture is conducting inspections to ensure seed quality and compliance, which is crucial for agricultural production safety. The emphasis on genetically modified technology is expected to revolutionize yield improvements, with companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development likely to benefit [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.55 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in slaughter volume by 17.4% year-on-year. The market sentiment has improved significantly, with a reduction in losses for self-bred and purchased pig farming, indicating a potential for recovery in the sector. Recommended stocks include companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2353.51 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.21 USD/bushel, up 2.11% [26][27] - Wheat: The domestic average price is 2513.62 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.82 USD/bushel, down 0.13% [29][31] - Soybeans: The domestic average price is 4048.42 CNY/ton, up 0.63% week-on-week. The international price is 405.95 USD/ton, up 0.74% [39][43] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 15530.00 CNY/ton, up 0.84% week-on-week [45][49] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.64 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.76%. The prices for chicken feed and egg-laying hen feed remain stable [52][54]

Core Insights - In the past five trading days (January 5 to January 9), 13 companies experienced significant shareholder increases, totaling 33.76 million shares and an aggregate increase amount of 402 million yuan [1] - During the same period, 163 companies had significant shareholder reductions, with a total reduction amount of 15.48 billion yuan [1] Summary by Category Shareholder Increases - Eight companies had increases exceeding 10 million yuan, with Wanrun Co., Ltd. leading at 7.50 million shares and an increase amount of 11.43 million yuan [1] - Tongji Technology followed with an increase of 5.62 million shares and 7.48 million yuan, while Aofei Data ranked third with an increase of 5.45 million yuan [1] - The distribution of increases showed that three companies were from the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) and nine from the main board, with GEM increases totaling 7.41 million yuan and main board increases at 316 million yuan [1] Market Performance - Stocks with shareholder increases averaged a rise of 7.47% over the past five days, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period [1] - Notable gainers included Aofei Data, with a rise of 23.58%, followed by Biological Shares at 15.46% and Hengshi Technology at 13.70% [1] - Conversely, Hengyi Petrochemical and Huamao Logistics experienced declines of 2.60% and 0.82%, respectively [1] Fund Flow - Among the stocks with shareholder increases, eight saw net inflows of main funds, with Biological Shares receiving the highest net inflow of 67 million yuan [2] - The companies with the largest net outflows included Huamao Logistics and Hengshi Technology, with outflows of 40 million yuan and 18 million yuan, respectively [2]

Group 1: Company Overview - The report focuses on Bio Co., Ltd. (600201), highlighting its potential breakthrough with the African Swine Fever vaccine, which is expected to reshape its competitive advantage and growth momentum [3][4]. - The recommendation logic emphasizes the company's strong R&D barriers, rich product pipeline, and the recent clinical approval of the ASF vaccine, which could become the main growth driver over the next 3-5 years [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Projections - Projected revenues for Bio Co., Ltd. from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 1,603.76 million, 2,035.36 million, and 2,520.85 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.74%, 26.91%, and 24.85% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 303.45 million, 397.65 million, and 491.31 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 178.44%, 31.04%, and 23.55% respectively [4]. Group 3: Catalysts and Drivers - Key catalysts include breakthroughs in the ASF vaccine development and advancements in the mRNA vaccine for feline infectious peritonitis [4]. - The driving factors for growth are the leading progress in ASF vaccine development, a solid position in foot-and-mouth disease, rapid expansion in the pet sector, and ongoing overseas market development [3][4]. Group 4: Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to exceed performance expectations due to the clinical approval of the ASF vaccine, diversified product launches, and rapid overseas market expansion [3]. - The strategy includes leveraging marketing support, online channel development, and international market penetration to drive revenue growth [3].

Core Logic - The company has strong R&D barriers and a rich pipeline of new products, with the non-epidemic vaccine having received clinical approval, which could become the largest growth engine in the next 3-5 years if progress is smooth [1] Industry Dynamics - The animal health sector is expected to maintain a volume increase but price decrease trend due to weak recovery in the breeding industry and profit compression, with overall gross margins declining amid intense competition and product homogenization [2] Product Development - The company is a leader in the foot-and-mouth disease vaccine market, transitioning its core product logic to the subunit non-epidemic vaccine, which has a broad market potential. The market size is expected to reach 1.75 billion yuan in the first year and 3.5 billion yuan in the second year post-launch. The subunit non-epidemic vaccine is set to enter clinical trials in July 2025, with potential revenue contributions starting from late 2027 to early 2028 [3] Marketing Strategy - The company focuses on "big products + big clients," providing comprehensive solutions and building a multi-layered marketing system. Online and overseas market expansions are showing initial success, with pet direct sales increasing over fourfold year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The company has registered sales of foot-and-mouth products in countries like Pakistan and Vietnam, with plans for deeper market penetration in Mongolia and Central Asia [4] Financial Forecast - The company expects overall revenue of 1.604 billion, 2.035 billion, and 2.521 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.74%, 26.91%, and 23.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 304 million, 398 million, and 491 million yuan, with growth rates of 178.44%, 31.04%, and 23.55%, corresponding to P/E ratios of 64, 49, and 39 times [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the pork price has slightly declined but remains supported by high slaughter volumes and increased breeding activity. The pre-Spring Festival stocking has not yet started, and downstream profits are still in need of recovery. The average price of live pigs as of January 9, 2026, is 12.58 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.36 CNY/kg. The industry gross white price difference is 3.85 CNY/kg, which has decreased by 0.13 CNY/kg week-on-week and 1.46 CNY/kg year-on-year, indicating potential for recovery as stocking begins [5][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The report notes that the pre-Spring Festival stocking has not yet started, and downstream profits are still in need of recovery. The average price of live pigs is 12.58 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 CNY/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.36 CNY/kg. The industry gross white price difference is 3.85 CNY/kg, indicating potential for recovery as stocking begins [5][14]. Market Performance - From January 5 to January 9, the agricultural sector underperformed the market by 2.84 percentage points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, while the agricultural index increased by 0.98%. The fishery sector led the gains, with notable increases in stocks such as Dahu Co. (+17.83%), Zhongshui Fishery (+16.07%), and Biological Co. (+15.46%) [7][20][24]. Key News - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a 98% compliance rate in the national agricultural product quality safety monitoring for 2025. Additionally, the central reserve of frozen pork will initiate a two-way rotation with an outflow and storage volume of 17,800 tons each [6][26]. Price Tracking - As of January 9, 2026, the average price of live pigs is 12.63 CNY/kg, down 0.13 CNY/kg from the previous week. The average price of piglets is 20.39 CNY/kg, up 0.95 CNY/kg week-on-week. The average price of white strips of meat is 16.85 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase of 0.05 CNY/kg [8][28].

Core Viewpoint - The animal health sector experienced a rise of 1.55% on January 9, with significant contributions from leading stocks like Biological Shares, which surged by 4.76% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up by 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up by 1.15% [1]. - The top-performing stock in the animal health sector was Biological Shares (600201), closing at 17.40 with a gain of 4.76% and a trading volume of 683,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 1.179 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance Summary - Other notable stocks included: - Shunlian Biological (688098) at 9.67, up by 1.90% with a trading volume of 64,900 shares [1]. - Zhongmu Shares (600195) at 8.10, up by 1.25% with a trading volume of 138,100 shares [1]. - Ruipu Biological (300119) at 19.90, up by 1.12% with a trading volume of 154,700 shares [1]. - Haili Biological (603718) at 6.48, up by 0.78% with a trading volume of 124,600 shares [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The animal health sector saw a net outflow of 27.3879 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 90.8993 million yuan [2]. - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Haili Biological had a net inflow of 10.2913 million yuan from institutional investors [3]. - Jinhe Biological experienced a net inflow of 2.8449 million yuan from institutional investors [3]. - *ST Green Kang (002868) had a net inflow of 1.8780 million yuan from institutional investors [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Kaiyuan Securities highlights that BioShares is a leading player in China's animal health sector, with a diverse range of over a hundred vaccines covering pigs, poultry, ruminants, and pets. The company is expected to see significant growth driven by its new vaccines, particularly the African swine fever vaccine, which is nearing market launch [1] Financial Projections - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025 while raising the profit estimates for 2026 and 2027. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 188 million, 712 million, and 1.211 billion yuan respectively, with earnings per share (EPS) of 0.17, 0.64, and 1.09 yuan [1] - The previous profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were 352 million and 508 million yuan respectively [1] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the company are projected to be 98.5, 25.9, and 15.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Investment Rating - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum with the imminent global launch of its African swine fever vaccine, leading to a "buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of Bio Co., Ltd. increased by 5.06% on January 9, reaching 17.45 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 918 million CNY and a turnover rate of 4.80%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 19.4 billion CNY [1] - Bio Co., Ltd. has experienced a continuous increase in stock price for five consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 10.73% during this period [1] - The company, established on March 13, 1993, and listed on January 15, 1999, is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of veterinary biological products, with main business revenue composition being 94.42% from biopharmaceuticals, 3.18% from other income, and 2.40% from supplementary sources [1] Group 2 - E Fund's fund under management has a significant position in Bio Co., Ltd., with the E Fund CSI Modern Agriculture Theme ETF (562900) increasing its holdings by 19,600 shares in the third quarter, totaling 239,100 shares, which accounts for 2.79% of the fund's net value, ranking it as the eighth largest holding [2] - The estimated floating profit from the recent stock price increase is approximately 200,800 CNY, with a total floating profit of 385,000 CNY during the five-day increase [2] - The E Fund CSI Modern Agriculture Theme ETF (562900) was established on December 2, 2021, with a latest scale of 82.62 million CNY, and has reported a year-to-date return of 0.38%, ranking 5235 out of 5509 in its category [2]