投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年03月02日08时23分 报告导读： 周六美以对伊发动袭击，周一开盘，原油价格大幅拉升，可能会对黑色商品有一定的情绪上的提振 ，但主要还是看市场的供需情况。供需方面，上 周 247家样本钢厂螺纹产量继续下降，表观需求环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量大幅下降，库存继续增加，表观需求处于一年中的最 低。整体来看，目前市场整体仍处于供需双弱的状态 ，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位快速增加，预计要到元宵节之后下游需求才会逐步启动 ， 市场对 2026 年的需求预期相对偏弱。从技术面看，期价出现大幅反弹后回落，显示上方阻力仍大。由于当前估值低，下方的空间或有限。 投资咨询系列报告 操作建议： 维持观望，谨慎交易 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3067 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 ...

国信证券指出，白酒方面，茅台在保持较快流速的同时价格稳中有升，市场化改革成效逐步显现，预计 春节期间动销有望增长，为全年经营奠定基础。展望2026年，预计上半年基本面仍在左侧寻底，但酒企 纾压渠道，积极去化库存，渠道利润率预计环比修复，估值端可适当乐观，下半年表观低基数下或逐步 迎来改善。 吃喝板块今日（2月4日）继续走强！反映吃喝板块整体走势的食品饮料ETF华宝（515710）开盘后震荡 走高，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到1.19%，截至发稿，涨0.68%。 成份股方面，白酒、大众品均有亮眼表现。截至发稿，新乳业、燕京啤酒双双大涨超3%，酒鬼酒、东 鹏饮料等涨超2%，贵州茅台、山西汾酒、泸州老窖等多股涨超1%。 | | | 分配 字日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 | 515710)食品饮料ETFiPg] 10:54 价 0.592 温默 0.0040.68% 均价 0.591 除灾量 0 | | | | | | F9 盘前盘玩 盘加 九粒 图纸 工具 份 (8 > 2026/02/04 | | 食品饮料ETF华宜 ① | | 515710 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

再看半导体板块，兆易创新跌停，江波龙跌超10%，其实是前期AI炒作热度退潮，加上部分公司业绩预 期没跟上，资金暂时撤离。但帮主得说句实在的，半导体的产业趋势没坏，只是短期波动，就像2023年 那波调整，跌下去之后很快又反弹回来，关键看核心公司的订单和技术突破。 而电网设备为啥能逆势狂飙？这里藏着真需求！AI算力需求爆炸，变压器成了"算力心脏"，北美电荒让 中国电网设备成了香饽饽，加上国内4万亿的电网投资规划，订单都排到后年了，这种有政策+需求双 重支撑的板块，自然能扛住市场下跌。白酒股表现坚挺也不意外，春节消费旺季要来了，加上资金避险 需求，这类刚需品种总能稳住阵脚，这和2019年春节前的行情如出一辙。 今天盘面属实让人揪心，三大指数全跌超2%，4600多只个股绿油油一片，资源股跌停板上堆着几百亿 封单，手里持仓的朋友是不是越看越慌，甚至想割肉离场？ 但别急着emo，盘面里藏着大反差——电网设备10多股涨停，白酒股也扛住了下跌，这到底是为啥？咱 们先把下跌的账算明白。核心就是大宗商品被集体抛售，美联储鹰派预期越来越强，美元走强让贵金 属、油气这些品种失了吸引力，加上前期资源股涨得太猛，获利盘扎堆兑现，湖南白银 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, and procurement remains cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. - The pressure on the supply side is prominent, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the peak - season consumption expectations are not met, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$43.57 per ton. - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 55 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,200 yuan/ton, with a premium of 15 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,140 yuan/ton, with a premium of -15 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 21, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 146,086 lots, and the open interest was 121,693 lots. The highest price was 24,390 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,070 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 21, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 122,000 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from the previous period. - As of January 21, 2026, LME zinc inventory was 111,850 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive trend in pig prices driven by the consumption peak season, with the average price of lean pigs reaching 12.49 CNY/kg, a 2.6% increase month-on-month [1] - The stock performance of the livestock breeding index shows mixed results, with leading stocks like Ruisheng Biological rising by 9.91% and the Livestock ETF priced at 0.68 CNY [1] - The overall pig farming sector is experiencing a "tug-of-war" state, where companies with cost advantages are more resilient in competition [1] Group 2 - According to Huaxi Securities, the average price of external three yuan pigs reached 12.7 CNY/kg, a week-on-week increase of 1.26%, indicating a steady rise in pig prices [2] - As of the end of October, the number of breeding sows in China was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month, reflecting ongoing adjustments in pig production capacity [2] - The self-breeding and external purchasing pig farming models have turned profitable, with profits of 7.39 CNY/head and 2.31 CNY/head respectively [2] Group 3 - The CSI Livestock Breeding Index (930707) includes companies involved in livestock feed, veterinary drugs, and livestock farming, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the livestock sector [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Livestock Breeding Index account for 67.66% of the index, with major companies including Muyuan Foods, Haida Group, and Wens Foodstuffs [2]

Core Viewpoint - Korean Air reported a mixed financial performance for 2025, with a revenue increase but a significant drop in net profit due to rising operational costs [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Korean Air achieved an operating revenue of 165,019 billion KRW (approximately 78.05 billion RMB), representing a 2% year-on-year growth. However, net profit fell by 21% to 9,650 billion KRW (approximately 4.56 billion RMB) due to increased operational costs driven by inflation [1] - For Q4 2025, Korean Air's revenue reached 45,516 billion KRW (approximately 21.53 billion RMB), with a net profit of 2,840 billion KRW (approximately 1.34 billion RMB), both showing a significant increase of 13% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Passenger Business - The passenger business revenue in Q4 2025 was 25,917 billion KRW, an increase of 2,171 billion KRW year-on-year. The growth was supported by strong demand for short-haul travel, particularly to China and Japan, during the Chuseok holiday period [1] - The overall performance of the passenger business improved due to a notable increase in traffic, especially as travelers shifted from Japan to Korea following a downturn in Sino-Japanese relations [1] Group 3: Cargo Business - In Q4 2025, the cargo business revenue was 12,331 billion KRW, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 351 billion KRW, aided by easing uncertainties around US-China tariffs and stable demand from cross-border e-commerce [2] - Korean Air plans to enhance its passenger business in Q1 2026 by expanding sales in overseas markets to mitigate the impact of a weakening Korean won and slowing domestic outbound demand [2] - The company aims to maximize profitability in its cargo operations by diversifying its business portfolio and flexibly adjusting cargo capacity based on market conditions [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The trading speed of apple production areas is differentiated, with transactions improving in Shaanxi and Shanxi, but overall slow. The low excellent fruit rate and high price of excellent fruits, along with the impact of alternative fruits, suppress sales. The market is waiting for the Spring Festival stocking to drive up sales [2][3][4] - 红枣: Although the current year's production has decreased, the market supply is still abundant due to sufficient inventory. The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the sales speed is average. The market trend depends on the release of consumption demand and festival stocking progress [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9583 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton or -0.32% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first and second-grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 above semi-commodity late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price opened high and closed low. Different production areas have different trading speeds. The consumption peak season may drive up sales, but the low-price alternative fruits in the sales area suppress the sales of apples. The excellent fruit rate is low, the hardness of cold storage fruits is insufficient, and the delivery cost is high [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The Spring Festival stocking season is approaching, but the low excellent fruit rate and high price of excellent fruits, along with the impact of alternative fruits, suppress sales [4] 红枣 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the 红枣 2605 contract was 9150 yuan/ton, a change of +175 yuan/ton or +1.95% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first-grade grey jujube in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [6] Market Analysis - The 红枣 futures price closed higher at a high level. The acquisition work in the production area has basically ended. Although the production has decreased, the market supply is still abundant. The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the sales speed is average. The market trend depends on the release of consumption demand and festival stocking progress [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The new and old stocks of 红枣 are sufficient. The sales speed in the sales area is average, and the price fluctuates at a low level. Pay attention to the downstream sales atmosphere, acquisition price changes, and peak season consumption changes [8]

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The agricultural products market in Ningbo is experiencing a sales peak with sufficient supply and stable prices for meat and vegetables [1][3] - Daily average sales in the Ningbo poultry and meat wholesale market are approximately 1,568 heads of livestock and 63,000 birds, with egg sales around 112 tons [3] - The vegetable wholesale market in Ningbo has an average daily supply of about 2,800 tons, indicating overall ample supply and stable pricing [7] Group 2: Flower Market - The flower market in Taiyuan is thriving as the New Year approaches, with a variety of flowers attracting many consumers [7][8] - The most popular flower among consumers is the butterfly orchid, with over 20 varieties available, and many customers are pre-ordering for the New Year [10] - There has been a noticeable increase in customer traffic by at least 20-30% this week, leading to higher sales volumes and increased inventory to meet diverse consumer demands [12][14]

Group 1: Beef and Lamb Market - The beef market in Shandong province has seen a year-on-year increase in trading volume by 9.47%, with an average price of 65.61 yuan/kg, up 14.68% year-on-year [1] - The lamb market also experienced a trading volume increase of 8.18%, with an average price of 75.03 yuan/kg, reflecting a year-on-year rise of 3.33% [1] - The increase in beef prices is attributed to seasonal demand as temperatures drop, although import pressures limit the price recovery potential [1] Group 2: Pork Market - The average price of pork in Shandong province is currently 21.67 yuan/kg, down 22.50% year-on-year and 0.64% month-on-month, indicating a continued weak trend [3][4] - The pig-to-grain price ratio is at 4.86:1, down 34.21% year-on-year, with significant losses reported in the industry, leading to a reduction in production capacity [4] - The industry is expected to undergo capacity reduction due to ongoing losses and regulatory pressures, aiming for a more stable and healthy development phase [4] Group 3: Sheep and Goat Market - The average price for live sheep has increased to 28.22 yuan/kg, up 4.75% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability in sheep farming [3] - The sheep-to-grain price ratio is 11.91:1, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.97%, while profitability for sheep farming remains positive [3] Group 4: Egg and Chicken Market - The average sales price of eggs is 6.94 yuan/kg, down 30.25% year-on-year but showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.14%, indicating a recovery in demand [5] - The chicken market has a sales price of 17.18 yuan/kg, down 4.40% year-on-year, with a slight recovery in demand for chicken products as temperatures drop [6]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market is expected to remain volatile and consolidate in the short term and is likely to warm up and rebound near the year - end. It is recommended to have a balanced allocation for both offense and defense. Short - term market adjustments due to liquidity disturbances can be seen as layout opportunities. The focus of convertible bond layout should be on two main lines: defensive bottom - position varieties and technology - growth sectors with policy support and industrial trends. Additionally, consumer - related convertible bonds are also worthy of attention [2][4][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Convertible Bond Weekly Strategy - **Stock Market Performance**: From December 8th to 12th, the A - share market showed a volatile and differentiated pattern, with the growth style significantly outperforming. The ChiNext Index had the best performance, rising 2.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84%, and the Shanghai Composite Index slightly fell 0.34%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased, with the daily average trading volume reaching 1.95 trillion yuan. Technology - growth sectors represented by commercial aerospace, CPO, and controlled nuclear fusion led the gains, while traditional sectors such as coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and real estate performed poorly [6] - **Convertible Bond Market Performance**: The convertible bond market rose slightly, and the valuation continued to recover. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.20%, and the convertible bond equal - weighted index rose 0.09%, outperforming the convertible bond underlying stock equal - weighted index which fell 0.94%. The market internal structure was highly differentiated, with high - price, low - premium convertible bonds performing relatively well, while double - low and low - price convertible bonds pulled back. Small - cap and large - cap convertible bonds rose, while mid - cap convertible bonds fell. The median convertible bond parity price decreased 1.61% to 99.60 yuan, the median convertible bond price decreased 0.63% to 130.78 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate increased 1.21 percentage points to 32.71% [9] - **Market Outlook**: In the second half of December, the convertible bond market is expected to remain volatile and consolidate in the short term and may warm up and rebound near the year - end. After the Fed's interest - rate cut in December, the positive policy tone of the Central Economic Work Conference for 2026, and the policies to promote the entry of long - and medium - term funds into the market are expected to bring incremental funds. The market is likely to be mainly volatile in the short term, with limited room for a sharp decline. As institutional funds start to plan for 2026 at the end of the month, market sentiment is expected to improve, and trading volume may gradually pick up. A cross - year offensive is expected to start near the end of December [11][12] - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to have a balanced allocation for both offense and defense. Short - term market adjustments due to liquidity disturbances can be seen as layout opportunities. The focus of convertible bond layout should be on two main lines: one is the bottom - position varieties with defensive attributes, such as relatively low - price convertible bonds below 125 yuan, or large - cap convertible bonds or financial convertible bonds with sound fundamentals; the other is the technology - growth sectors with policy support and industrial trends, such as commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors. After adjustments, some convertible bonds in these sectors have regained elasticity and are more suitable for offensive strategies. In addition, after three years of adjustment, the consumer sector has low valuations and positions, and consumer - related convertible bonds are worthy of attention due to the year - end consumption peak season and potential policy stimuli [12]