新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-22 铝锭社会库存开始去库 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20680元/吨，较上一交易日变化160元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水20元/吨， 较上一交易日变化20元/吨；中原A00铝价20580元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-80元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20630元/吨，较上一交易日变化150元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-25元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-08-21日沪铝主力合约开于20570元/吨，收于20590元/吨，较上一交易日变化100元/吨，最 高价达20660元/吨，最低价达到20530元/吨。全天交易日成交124523手，全天交易日持仓233902手。 库存方面，截止2025-08-21，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化-1.1吨，仓单库存59890 吨，较上一交易日变化-3048吨，LME铝库存479525吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-08-21SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3220元/吨，山东价格录得3205元/吨，河南价格录得 3225元/吨，广西价格录得3 ...

转自：证券时报 人民财讯8月22日电，中信建投研报认为，消费旺季特征开始显现，能源金属价格基本面支撑强。"金九 银十"消费旺季逐步临近，下游需求逐步回升，市场活跃度显著回暖，前期流通的低价货源快速消化， 稀土、钴报价稳步上涨，碳酸锂价格在江西供给扰动下大幅上涨。 ...

中信建投研报表示，金九银十消费旺季逐步临近，下游需求逐步回升，市场活跃度显著回暖，前期流通 的低价货源快速消化，稀土、钴报价稳步上涨，碳酸锂价格在江西供给扰动下大幅上涨。稀土：据 SMM，多家大厂密集招标，叠加部分磁材企业排产已延至10月中旬，镨钕价格连续上涨；钴：中间品 进口在6月大幅下降，当前冶炼厂开工率持续下调，部分减产，预计7月进口仍延续降势，维持冶炼厂四 季度初原料库存降至低位判断，钴价将在三季度末四季度初获得较强支撑。锂：上游矿山减产，月度级 别走向短缺，在下游需求走强预期下，价格易涨难跌。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ななな [1] - Alumina: な☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc: ななな [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall copper market is still cautiously assessing economic growth risks and paying attention to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this week. Hold short positions in Shanghai copper above 79,000 [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year [3]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with supply surplus gradually emerging, and it will be in a weak and volatile state [3]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to rebound under pressure. In the short - term, it will stop falling and fluctuate, and in the medium - term, the idea of short - selling on rebounds is maintained [4]. - For nickel, it is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [7]. - Shanghai tin has a tight fundamental situation, but is also affected by demand concerns. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8]. - The lithium carbonate futures price shows a strong trend, and it is expected to fluctuate. Risk control should be done well [9]. - The industrial silicon futures price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be a callback risk if the policy expectation falls later [10]. - The polysilicon futures market is in a volatile adjustment situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic" [11]. Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated on Wednesday, and the short positions above 79,000 in the main contract are held. The physical copper price in Shanghai is 78,770 yuan with a premium of 190 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference is within 1,000 yuan. The US government included hundreds of end - products with high steel and aluminum content in the 50% tariff list [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, and the spot in East China was at par. The downstream start - up is stable, and the peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The alumina supply surplus is emerging, and the inventory and warehouse receipts are rising [3]. Zinc - In July, the import of zinc concentrates increased by 51.9% month - on - month to 501,400 physical tons, while the import of refined zinc decreased by 50.35% month - on - month to 17,900 tons. The short - term zinc price stops falling and fluctuates, and the medium - term is short - sold on rebounds [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for 6 consecutive times, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless steel is poor, and the supply is expected to increase [7]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with reduced positions. The fundamentals are tight, with a decrease in domestic tin concentrate imports in July and low - level customs clearance of Myanmar ore. The short - term long positions are held based on the MA60 moving average [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is volatile. The market is focused on the expectation after the shutdown of sub - standard enterprises for the 930 deadline. The fundamentals have limited guidance on the price [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The market sentiment cooled after the photovoltaic conference, but there is still a policy support expectation. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the price in Xinjiang has decreased [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price fluctuates. The market is in a situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic", with a resistance level at the previous high of 53,000 yuan/ton and a support level at about 48,000 yuan/ton [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].

Macro Overview - In July, China's CPI and PPI data showed slight month-on-month improvement, while investment, consumption, exports, and credit data were weaker than expected. The central bank's monetary policy report emphasizes promoting reasonable price recovery as a key consideration, indicating continued expectations for policy easing [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintains high expectations for a rate cut in September, supporting overall market risk appetite [1] Steel and Construction Materials - The market is currently in a clear consumption off-season, with MySteel reporting a decrease in rebar production and demand, leading to an increase in both factory and social inventories for two consecutive weeks [1] - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.407 million tons, a slight increase of 0.4 thousand tons week-on-week, while the proportion of profitable steel mills has decreased but remains relatively high [1] - As the consumption peak season approaches, production and apparent demand are expected to rise, leading to a decrease in inventories [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - For copper, global total inventory increased slightly by about 0.17 million tons, while domestic social inventory decreased to 125.6 thousand tons, remaining low for the same period. The processing fee for copper concentrate rose to -37.67 USD/ton, indicating a slight easing in supply tightness [2] - The overall judgment indicates marginal improvement in fundamentals, with domestic inventory reduction supporting spot prices, but macro uncertainties remain, leading to price fluctuations in the range of 77,000 to 81,000 RMB/ton [2] Lithium Carbonate - With the suspension of mining by Yichun Times, lithium carbonate prices have strengthened, and there are expectations of long-term production halts for downstream smelting enterprises after depleting their rights and inventory mines [3] - In August, downstream production demand improved significantly, with lithium iron phosphate increasing by 8.8% and ternary batteries by 9.2%, raising concerns about raw material stocking for September [3] - The overall judgment suggests that supply disruptions combined with demand improvements will maintain a strong price trend for lithium [3] Energy and Chemicals - The energy sector showed divergence, with international crude oil prices fluctuating weakly and chemicals experiencing wide fluctuations. The meeting between Trump and Putin did not result in agreements, but eased tensions, with no new sanctions on Russia expected in the short term [4] - U.S. crude oil inventories rose unexpectedly, while gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, indicating a global oil surplus. The IEA report predicts a significant oversupply in the oil market by 2026, leading to a downward trend in oil prices [4] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced weak fluctuations, primarily due to a decline in safe-haven demand and the expectation of phased trade agreements. U.S. inflation data remains under pressure, with July PPI rising by 0.9%, the largest month-on-month increase in three years [5] - Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September surged from around 40% to nearly 90%, with projections for three rate cuts within the year [5] - Short-term fluctuations in precious metals are anticipated, with long-term economic recession risks potentially driving a shift towards rate cuts and a restructuring of the global monetary system [5]

| | 操作评级 | 2025年08月12日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 错 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ☆☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ☆☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ☆☆☆ | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周二沪铜震荡收阳,中美延长前期关税政策。现铜报79150元,上海平水铜升水扩至170元。市场等待美国通胀 指标。前期高位空单持有。 (铝&氧化铝&铝合金) 今日沪铝窄幅波动,华东现货贴水收窄20元至30元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - face is favorable for the non - ferrous sector as there are expectations of interest rate cuts. The operating rate and output of primary lead smelters are rising, and primary lead maintains an advantage over secondary lead with stable by - product revenues. However, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions due to fluctuating lead prices. The supply of secondary lead shows regional differences, with a tight supply of waste batteries and low confidence among smelters, leading to a tight overall supply. The sewage inspection in Anhui has affected local secondary lead production, increasing supply uncertainty. On the demand side, lead demand is mainly in the lead - acid battery field. Approaching the traditional peak season, the actual demand has not yet seen a significant explosive growth but is in a slow recovery phase. The 8 - month consumption increment expectation is weak, but there is a possibility of improvement as the peak season deepens. Inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, indicating an overall improvement in demand. Although the current demand has not effectively reduced inventory, it is expected to gradually strengthen and support the lead price. It is recommended to go long on SHFE lead at low prices this week [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract is 16,915 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,997.5 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of SHFE lead is 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the SHFE lead open interest is 96,155 lots, down 3,367 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE lead is - 3,792 lots, up 530 lots; the SHFE lead warehouse receipts are 58,683 tons, up 201 tons. The SHFE inventory is 62,334 tons, down 949 tons; the LME lead inventory is 265,800 tons, down 2,575 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on SMM is 16,775 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME lead cash - 3 months spread is - 35.5 dollars/ton, down 4.21 dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,154 yuan, up 201 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average operating rate of primary lead is 75.65%, down 1.84%; the weekly output of primary lead is 33,800 tons, down 30 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,205.36 yuan/ton, up 1.79 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,000 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,875.1 points, up 60.88 points. The monthly automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 11, Codelco received authorization from the Chilean Labor Inspection Office to resume partial operations at the El Teniente copper mine, which had been suspended for over a week due to a collapse accident that killed six workers. Areas not affected by the July 31 accident can resume operations, while some areas are still on hold for further inspection. Kashkari said that it may be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short term, and two interest rate cuts this year are reasonable. The subsequent market is trading on interest - rate cut expectations, which is favorable for the non - ferrous sector [2]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/08/11 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

Report Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [10] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [10] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [10] Core View - The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season, but there are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory shows signs of peaking. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season. The long - term supply is limited while consumption grows steadily. Alumina has a north - south difference in the spot market, with the south strong and the north weak. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating. Aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and its price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [6][7][8][9] Summary by Category Aluminum Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,580 yuan/ton, and the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, also with a change of 60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract on August 7, 2025, was 20,760 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,750 yuan/ton, with a change of 150 yuan/ton. The highest price was 20,830 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,725 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 564,000 tons, with no change from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 42,031 tons, a decrease of 631 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 469,500 tons, an increase of 1,575 tons [2] Alumina Price and Inventory - **Spot Price**: On August 7, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,240 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,315 yuan/ton, and in Guizhou was 3,330 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 375 US dollars/ton [2] - **Futures Price**: The opening price of the main alumina contract on August 7, 2025, was 3,254 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 3,211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 3,291 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,191 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy Price, Inventory, and Cost - Profit - **Price**: On August 7, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,700 yuan/ton, also with a change of 100 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 48,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4] - **Cost - Profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,065 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 165 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates in the off - season. There are still conditions for a squeeze. The consumption in the off - season has some resilience, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods may have peaked. The export is strong, and the price may rise in the peak season [6] - **Alumina**: The spot market shows a pattern of strong south and weak north. The warehouse receipt risk is basically released. The supply is in an excess situation, and the social inventory accumulation is accelerating [7][8] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is in the off - season, and the price follows the aluminum price. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [9] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Aluminum is rated neutral, alumina is cautiously bearish, and aluminum alloy is neutral [10] - **Arbitrage**: Long the Shanghai aluminum calendar spread and long AD11 while short AL11 [10]