1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the rebar and hot - rolled coil sector, the market is in a seasonal de - stocking state with total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills changing little, inventory declining and apparent demand rebounding. However, market expectations for the future are pessimistic. Rising crude oil prices support the futures price. Technically, the futures price is oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is entering the consumption peak season with a rebound in the output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills last week. Iron ore production cost has increased due to rising crude oil prices. Short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but are expected to improve. The futures price shows resistance above after breaking through the upper Bollinger Band [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Total output changed little last week. Inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound, entering a seasonal de - stocking state. Market expectations for the future are pessimistic [2]. - **Cost**: Rising crude oil prices push up costs, supporting the futures price [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and may stabilize and rebound after testing the lower support level [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when there is a rally, with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - **Data**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, prices of related products like wire rods, medium - thick plates, and cold - rolled coils, steel billet and scrap steel prices, steel mill production, inventory, and apparent demand data are provided [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and iron water production is expected to gradually increase [4]. - **Cost**: Rising crude oil prices increase the production cost of iron ore [4]. - **Supply**: Short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. Recent arrivals have increased, and port inventory has decreased but remains at a historical high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price shows resistance above after breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, but it may also be accumulating strength for a breakthrough [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and be cautious about chasing up [4]. - **Data**: Iron ore futures and spot prices, basis, spreads, overseas shipments, sea freight, exchange rates, arrivals, port inventory, domestic mine production, and futures warehouse receipt data are provided [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Inner Mongolia Baite Metallurgical Building Materials Co., Ltd. reduced production of a 42000KVA ferrosilicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnace from the night of March 31st, affecting the daily production of ferrosilicon - manganese by 300 tons [5]. - According to the coking coal long - term agreement coal - steel linkage plan, the floating value of coking coal long - term agreement in March 2026 decreased by 24 yuan/ton compared with February, a decline of 1.6% [6]. - From March 23rd - 29th, 2026, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1394.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 81.8 tons. The current inventory is slightly higher than the average level since the beginning of the year [6]. - The PMI of the steel industry in March 2026 was 50.6%, a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points, returning to the expansion range after running below 50% for 7 consecutive months, indicating the recovery of the steel industry [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For the steel sector, the market has entered the seasonal de - stocking phase, but the future market expectations are pessimistic. The recent sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. For the iron ore sector, the market is entering the consumption peak season, and iron ore production costs have increased. Short - term port shipments are affected by weather, but are expected to improve. Futures prices face resistance above but may be accumulating strength for a breakthrough [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills changed little, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market has entered the seasonal de - stocking state, but market expectations for the future are pessimistic [2] - **Cost and Technical Analysis**: The recent sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, the futures price is oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, and after a short - term retracement to the lower support level, it stabilized and rebounded [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when there is a rally. Treat it with an oscillating mindset [2] - **Data Summary**: - Futures and spot prices: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased slightly compared to the previous day, and the spot prices of rebar decreased slightly compared to last week, while the spot prices of hot - rolled coils increased slightly [2] - Basis and spreads: The basis and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed different changes, such as the basis of rebar increasing compared to the previous day but decreasing compared to last week [2] - Production and inventory: The output of rebar decreased by 2.69% week - on - week, and the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 1.80% week - on - week. The social and steel mill inventories of the five major varieties decreased, and the inventory of billets in Tangshan also decreased [2] - Apparent demand: The apparent demand for the five major varieties increased by 2.24% week - on - week [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand and Cost**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average molten iron output increased by 2.90 million tons to 2.312 million tons, with a narrowing increase. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased the production cost of iron ore [4] - **Supply and Technical Analysis**: Short - term port shipments are affected by the weather in Australia, which has a certain boost to iron ore futures prices. However, as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere improves, shipments are expected to improve rapidly. The recent arrival volume has increased, and port inventories have decreased. Technically, the futures price oscillates repeatedly after breaking through the upper track of the Bollinger Bands, indicating strong resistance above, but it may also be accumulating strength for a breakthrough [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and be cautious about chasing up [4] - **Data Summary**: - Futures and spot prices: The settlement prices of the main contract of DCE iron ore and SGX iron ore decreased slightly compared to the previous day and last week, and the prices of iron ore powder at ports showed different changes [5] - Basis and spreads: The basis and spreads of iron ore futures showed different changes, such as the 9 - 1 spread of DCE iron ore futures decreasing compared to the previous day and last week [5] - Overseas shipments: The overseas shipments of Australian iron ore decreased by 39.55% week - on - week, and the shipments from Brazil increased by 47.70% week - on - week [5] - Inventory: The port inventory decreased by 0.57% week - on - week, and the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills increased by 3.10% week - on - week [5] 3.3 Industry News - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 24.724 billion tons, a decrease of 6.719 billion tons compared to the previous period. The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 18.751 billion tons, a decrease of 6.843 billion tons compared to the previous period [7] - From March 23 to March 29, 2026, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 26.267 billion tons, an increase of 2.436 billion tons compared to the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.263 billion tons, an increase of 1.547 billion tons compared to the previous period; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 11.981 billion tons, an increase of 1.477 billion tons compared to the previous period [8] - Manganese - silicon plants are gradually reducing production as planned. Most plants will start reducing production by about 30% on April 1st. The total monthly spontaneous emission reduction of national manganese - alloy enterprises is expected to be 221,000 tons. The short - term supply pressure is expected to ease. The operating rate of 187 independent manganese - silicon enterprises in the country is 32.01%, a decrease of 4.08% compared to last week; the daily average output is 27,380 tons per day, a decrease of 650 tons [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For the steel sector**: The market has entered a seasonal inventory - reduction phase. Although the current market sentiment is pessimistic about the future, the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices. Technically, futures prices are oscillating between the middle and upper bands of the Bollinger Bands, and there is a possibility of stabilizing and rebounding after a short - term retracement to the support level. The recommended strategy is to go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [2]. - **For the iron ore sector**: As the market enters the consumption peak season, the output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average hot metal output increased. The short - term impact of Australian weather on port shipments has boosted iron ore futures prices, but the shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. Technically, the futures price shows significant resistance above after breaking through the upper Bollinger Band. The recommended operation is also to go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils 3.1.1. Supply and Demand - Last week, the total output of five major varieties from 247 sample steel mills changed little, inventory decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market has entered a seasonal inventory - reduction state. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 79.78%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output is 231.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.94 million tons or 1.29%. The proportion of profitable steel mills is 43.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points. The national building materials steel mill threaded rod output is 197.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.46 million tons or 2.69%. The hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.40 million tons or 1.80% [2]. 3.1.2. Inventory - The social inventory of five major varieties is 1387.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.33 million tons or 1.65%. The threaded rod social inventory is 642.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.46 million tons or 1.60%. The hot - rolled coil social inventory is 369.42 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 million tons or 1.84%. The steel mill inventory of five major varieties is 510.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25.06 million tons or 4.68% [2]. 3.1.3. Apparent Demand - The apparent demand for five major varieties is 887.97 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 19.49 million tons or 2.24%. The apparent demand for threaded rods is 225.37 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.28 million tons or 8.30%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 313.63 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.12 million tons or 1.00% [2]. 3.1.4. Futures and Spot Prices - The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day and an increase of 1 yuan or 0.03% from last week. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3299 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or 0.18% from the previous day and an increase of 2 yuan or 0.06% from last week [2]. 3.1.5. Operation Suggestion - Go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore 3.2.1. Supply and Demand - The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average hot metal output increased by 2.9 million tons to 231.2 million tons week - on - week, with the growth rate narrowing. The short - term impact of Australian weather on port shipments has boosted iron ore futures prices, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better [4]. 3.2.2. Inventory - The port inventory decreased week - on - week. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 17000.31 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98.09 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume is 313.17 million tons, a decrease of 7.80 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports is 17666.83 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 147.35 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume is 330.31 million tons, a decrease of 5.61 million tons [8]. 3.2.3. Futures and Spot Prices - The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 812 yuan/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day and a decrease of 3.5 yuan or 0.43% from last week. The settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 106.95 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 0.39 US dollars or 0.36% from the previous day and a decrease of 0.36 US dollars or 0.34% from last week [5]. 3.2.4. Operation Suggestion - Go long with a light position at low prices, be cautious about chasing up, and take profits in time when prices rise, treating the market with an oscillatory mindset [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel sector, the market has entered the seasonal destocking phase, but the future market expectations are pessimistic. Although the recent sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs and supported futures prices, the futures prices are oscillating between the middle and upper tracks of the Bollinger Bands, indicating significant upward resistance. It is recommended to close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - For the iron ore sector, the market is gradually entering the consumption peak season, and iron ore production costs have increased. Short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. The futures price shows significant upward resistance after breaking through the upper track of the Bollinger Bands. It is also recommended to close long positions and then maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: The total output of the five major varieties of 247 sample steel mills this week has changed little, inventory has decreased, and apparent demand has continued to rebound. The market has entered the seasonal destocking state [2]. - **Price Data**: The closing price of the threaded steel main contract is 3128 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous day and 0.22% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3305 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 0.09% from last week. Other related prices, basis, and spreads also have corresponding changes [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national building materials steel mill's threaded steel output is 197.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.69%; hot - rolled coil output is 305.61 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.80%. The social inventory and steel mill inventory of the five major varieties, as well as the inventory of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, have all decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Market Transaction**: The 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume is 19.39 tons, down 20.29% from the previous day and 18.01% from last week [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties is 887.97 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24%; the apparent demand for threaded steel social inventory is 225.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.30%; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil social inventory is 313.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.00% [2]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered threaded steel warehouse receipts is 98088 tons, and the number of registered hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is 537279 tons [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Demand and Supply**: The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. The output of the five major steel products of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased by 6.95 tons to 228.2 tons. The short - term port shipments are affected by Australian weather, but shipments are expected to improve rapidly as the weather in the Southern Hemisphere gets better. The recent arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has decreased month - on - month [4]. - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 817 yuan/dry ton, up 1.30% from the previous day and 1.18% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract is 107.34 US dollars/dry ton, up 2.04% from the previous day and down 1.34% from last week. Other related prices, basis, and spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. - **Shipping and Inventory**: Australian iron ore shipments are 1701.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.44%; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 495.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.24%. The port inventory is 17098.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52% [4]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The number of iron ore futures warehouse receipts is 3200 lots, a decrease of 200 lots from last week [4]. 3.3. Industry News - In February 2026, China exported 783.8 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%, and the export average price was 729.0 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative steel export volume was 1559.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%, and the export average price was 706.4 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.0%. In February, China imported 36.9 tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 19.6%, and the import average price was 1740.7 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. From January to February, the cumulative steel import volume was 82.7 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%, and the import average price was 1769.5 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [6]. - As of the week of March 26, the threaded steel output decreased from an increase, the factory inventory and social inventory decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent demand increased for five consecutive weeks. The threaded steel output was 197.87 tons, a decrease of 5.46 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.69%; the apparent demand was 225.37 tons, an increase of 17.28 tons from last week, an increase of 8.30% [6]. - Australian ore miner Fenix warned that due to limited diesel supply caused by the Iran war, the operations of the Australian mining industry have been affected, forcing the company to scale back some business activities. Tropical Cyclone Narelle is currently raging along the west coast of Australia, causing fuel supply disruptions [6]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country is 21 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is 47 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is 76 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 28 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 73 yuan/ton [7]. - Against the background that most orders fall short of expectations, the procurement enthusiasm of the glass mid - downstream has slowed down. The downstream procurement is mostly for rigid demand, and the inventory depletion of glass enterprises has slowed down this week. As of March 26, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises is 7362.2 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 81.4 million heavy boxes or 1.09%, and the year - on - year increase has expanded to 9.86%, equivalent to 33.6 days of inventory, a slight decrease of 0.1 days from the previous period. The inventory in the northwest region continues to increase, while the inventory in other regions continues to decrease [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and oscillate and consolidate. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short term and adjust under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Finished Products - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown arrangements, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to oscillate downward, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage was sluggish this year, providing weak price support [3] Aluminum - Overseas electrolytic aluminum production reduction expectations still exist, and the global supply contraction logic remains. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production remains stable with limited supply increments [3] - The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1 percentage point to 62.9% last week, showing signs of a peak season, and demand was released. The photovoltaic materials in the profile sector entered the final stage of "rush - export", and new orders in the automotive and power fields increased significantly [3] - After the Spring Festival, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market continued to accumulate inventory. As of March 19, the inventory in the mainstream consumption areas was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 45,000 tons from last Thursday. The inventory is still at a high level in the past five years, but the inventory accumulation situation has shown signs of easing [3] - LME inventory depletion supports the bottom of LME aluminum, but the upward momentum is insufficient. Domestic high - inventory and weak reality suppress the upward momentum, and the internal and external driving forces continue to diverge [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Alumina: The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with positive industry consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: The cast aluminum alloy market is likely to be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23,625 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,014 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,225.50 US dollars/ton, up 33.50 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,585 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum was - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; that of alumina was - 39 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy was - 115 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - **Position**: The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 261,158 hands, down 5,633 hands; that of the alumina main contract was 231,479 hands, down 15,331 hands; that of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 4,053 hands, down 521 hands [2]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum canceled warrants were 154,625 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventory was 427,675 tons, down 2,000 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE was 452,044 tons, up 35,619 tons; cast aluminum alloy inventory on the SHFE was 53,690 tons, down 9,041 tons [2]. - **Other indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 36,054 hands, down 7,332 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.32, down 0.05; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE were 42,944 tons, down 2,047 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Price**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 23,470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country was 24,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum price was 23,430 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,815 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 155 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 284 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan [2]. - **Premium and discount**: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium and discount was - 140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount was 30.63 US dollars/ton, down 6.95 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and utilization rate**: Alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 83.00%, down 1.00%; the alumina开工率 was 82.10%, down 0.39% [2]. - **Supply and demand**: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2]. - **Import and export**: The export volume of alumina was 15.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 18.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 136,323.65 tons, down 56,401.89 tons; the export volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and capacity**: The production of primary aluminum was 201,491.17 tons, up 12,566.45 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 10,039.89 tons, down 3,249.90 tons; the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Export**: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 43.00 million tons, down 11.00 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 million tons, down 1.09 million tons [2]. - **Operating rate**: The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.93%, up 0.04% [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Real estate**: The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. - **Automobile**: The automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 24.08%, down 0.57%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 31.82%, down 0.04%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21.36%, down 0.0027 [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.90, up 0.1753 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Geopolitical**: The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock. The US President Trump said that the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the main points of an agreement, but Iran denied it [2]. - **Domestic policy**: President Xi Jinping inspected Xiongan New Area and emphasized its function positioning; the "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism held its second meeting; the National Data Bureau will promote the power - computing synergy project; State Power Investment plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, with a 17% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Overseas policy**: The US Vice - President Vance discussed the Iran negotiation with the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu; the Fed's Goolsbee said that inflation is the primary risk, not excluding the possibility of raising interest rates, and still retaining the space for interest rate cuts this year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **For the black - series commodities**: The sudden escalation of the Middle - East situation has led to a strong crude oil price, driving black - series commodity prices to be strong in the short - term. The supply - demand situation is recovering, with both production and demand increasing, but the market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic view on the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil prices pushes up costs, supporting futures prices. Technically, the futures prices are likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short - term [2] - **For iron ore**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. Steel output has rebounded, and iron - water production is expected to gradually increase. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased production costs on both the supply and demand sides. Shipping has recovered to a high level, port arrivals have increased, and port inventories have decreased. Technically, the futures price may start a medium - term upward trend [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply - demand situation**: Last week, the total output of five major varieties from 247 sample steel mills increased, inventories decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market may have entered the seasonal inventory - reduction period [2] - **Technical analysis**: The futures price broke through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands and then retraced to test the support of the lower moving average. It is likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short - term [2] - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions with a light position and consider the market from a strong - volatile perspective [2] - **Data details**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils, as well as their spot prices, showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded rod main contract was 3123 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day and 0.60% from the previous week [2] - **Basis and spreads**: The basis and various spreads of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils also changed. For example, the basis of the threaded rod main contract was 107 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan compared to the previous situation [2] - **Production and inventory**: The production of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils increased, and inventories decreased. For example, the national building - materials steel mill's threaded rod production was 203.33 tons, up 4.11% from the previous week, and the threaded rod social inventory was 653.21 tons, down 0.20% from the previous week [2] - **Apparent demand**: The apparent demand for five major varieties increased by 8.82% compared to the previous week [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, and the daily average iron - water production increased by 6.95 tons to 228.2 tons, with a relatively large rebound [4] - **Supply situation**: With the improvement of the weather, shipping has gradually recovered to a high level, port arrivals have increased, and port inventories have decreased [4] - **Technical analysis**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, breaking through important resistance levels above, and may start a medium - term upward trend [4] - **Operation suggestions**: Hold long positions with a light position and consider the market from a strong - volatile perspective [4] - **Data details**: - **Prices**: The prices of various iron - ore varieties, such as McFadden powder and Jinbuba powder, showed different changes compared to the previous day and week. For example, the price of McFadden powder (Qingdao Port) was 778 yuan/wet - ton, down 0.26% from the previous day and up 0.13% from the previous week [4] - **Basis and spreads**: The basis and futures monthly spreads of iron ore also changed. For example, the DCE iron - ore futures 9 - 1 spread was 21 yuan/dry - ton, up 0.5 compared to the previous situation [4] - **Shipping and inventory**: Overseas iron - ore shipping increased, port arrivals decreased in some areas, and port inventories decreased. For example, Australian iron - ore shipping was 1628.8 tons, up 4.93% from the previous week, and the total port inventory was 17098.4 tons, down 0.52% from the previous week [4] 3.3 Industry News - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, up 1.44 percentage points from the previous week and down 2.18 percentage points from the same period last year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, up 2.61 percentage points from the previous week and down 3.17 percentage points from the same period last year. The daily average iron - water production was 228.15 tons, up 6.95 tons from the previous week and down 8.11 tons from the same period last year [6] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 17098.40 tons, down 89.12 tons from the previous week; the total inventory at 47 ports was 17814.18 tons, down 133.14 tons from the previous week [6] - According to Gangyin E - commerce data, the total urban inventory this week was 1200.88 tons, down 0.87% from the previous week. The total inventory of construction steel this week was 644.61 tons, up 0.04% from the previous week [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the situation between the US and Iran has further deteriorated, causing a significant decline in AL prices and a weak overall performance of the aluminum product line. The price of scrap aluminum remains firm, with high - level price fluctuations. During the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season, recycled aluminum enterprises are actively starting work, and production is on the rise. However, due to the short - term difficulty in alleviating the tense situation in the Middle East, the market recession expectation is rising, risk assets are under pressure, and the AD price has also declined, with short - term high - level price fluctuations [6] - As of March 20, the visible inventory of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.27 million tons to 13.53 million tons compared with the previous week, with an increase in factory inventory and a decrease in social inventory. The automotive market in March is expected to show seasonal recovery, but the recovery of fuel - powered vehicles is hindered [6] 3. Summary by Directory Transaction End - Volume and Price - The report presents the price differences of AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, and AD02 - 03, as well as the capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest data [9] Transaction End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2604.shf and AD2605.shf contracts, the spread is 70 yuan/ton. The total cost of inter - period positive arbitrage is 92 yuan/ton, including fixed costs of 12.62 yuan/ton and floating costs of 79.72 yuan/ton [13] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 24,100 yuan/ton. Considering various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost is 24,254.2 yuan/ton [15] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production has significantly decreased, while social inventory has increased. Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [17][18] Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has decreased, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has fluctuated more intensively. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [29][34] - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has rebounded, but the monthly operating rate remains low. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current cost estimate is above the break - even line [39][43] - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has slightly increased, while the social inventory has slightly decreased. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is closed [48][50] - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the report shows the production volume, inventory volume, and inventory proportion data [53][54][55] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Automobile production is at a low level year - on - year, and there are concerns about automobile consumption. The report also presents the production data of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances, as well as the PPI of auto parts and the automobile inventory warning index [58][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply and demand in the market are recovering, with both production and demand increasing. However, the market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic outlook on the fundamentals. The sharp increase in crude oil prices has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices [2]. - The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. With the end of the Two Sessions and the arrival of the consumption peak season, iron ore demand is expected to increase. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has raised production costs on both the supply and demand sides. The relaxation of restrictions on the port clearance of Newman powder and the improvement in weather conditions have led to an increase in shipments and arrivals, and port inventories have reached record highs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot Roll - **Market Situation**: Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the prices of black - series commodities are running strongly in the short term. The total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills increased this week, inventories decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market may have entered the seasonal de - stocking state [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the futures price broke through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Band, it stepped back to the support of the lower moving average. It is more likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and adopt a strong - volatile mindset [2]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,135 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day and up 0.48% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,302 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 0.82% from last week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national rebar production of building material steel mills was 2.0333 million tons, an increase of 4.11% from last week; the hot - roll production was 3.0021 million tons, an increase of 1.68% from last week. The social inventory of five major varieties decreased by 0.86% from last week, and the steel - mill inventory decreased by 2.97% from last week [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, but the daily average hot - metal output decreased by 64,000 tons to 2.212 million tons. With the end of the Two Sessions and the arrival of the consumption peak season, hot - metal output is expected to gradually recover. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has raised production costs on both the supply and demand sides. Shipments have gradually recovered to a high level, arrivals have increased, and port inventories have reached record highs [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and may start a medium - term upward trend [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and adopt a strong - volatile mindset [4]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 807.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.43% from the previous day and up 1.51% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - one contract was 107.15 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.15% from the previous day and up 3.29% from last week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments were 16.288 million tons, an increase of 4.93% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 5.226 million tons, an increase of 11.29% from last week. The northern six - port arrivals were 12.302 million tons, a decrease of 16.00% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume (45 ports in total) was 3.3233 million tons, an increase of 1.64% from last week [4][9]. 3.3. Industry News - The UK government announced that a 50% tariff will be imposed on imported steel exceeding the quota level, and the overall quota level will be reduced by 60% starting from July 1 [11]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 88.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous week. The daily average production of raw coal was 1.969 million tons, a 33,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the raw coal inventory was 5.367 million tons, a 75,000 - ton decrease from the previous week; the daily average production of clean coal was 798,000 tons, a 21,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the clean coal inventory was 2.541 million tons, a 236,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [11]. - As of the week of March 19, rebar production increased for three consecutive weeks, factory and social inventories changed from increasing to decreasing, and apparent demand increased for four consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, an increase of 4.11% from last week; rebar apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, an increase of 17.69% from last week [11]. - Due to the chaos in the global energy market caused by the Iranian war, coal prices have risen sharply. Indonesia will allow miners to increase coal production and is studying an export tax on coal [11]. - This week, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country was 38 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was 57 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 97 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 11 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 87 yuan/ton [12].

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The inventory inflection point of steel has emerged, and steel prices will fluctuate widely. The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but inventory pressure remains a key factor restricting steel prices. The price will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory depletion and raw material price changes [1]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The steel futures main contract oscillated. The national building materials transaction volume was 88,800 tons, and the spot transaction was weak with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. This week's data shows that steel inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, building materials production and sales increased significantly, and hot - rolled coil production and sales increased slightly [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory slightly higher than the same period. Plate production is relatively high, and demand is also resilient, but inventory pressure is greater than that of building materials. The improvement of steel supply - demand in the peak season and the inventory depletion amplitude will affect prices. The deterioration of the Middle - East situation indirectly supports the bottom of steel prices [1]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for steel is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - External stimuli have eased, and iron ore prices will oscillate and correct. In the short term, the supply pressure of iron ore has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly intensified. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is loose, and high inventory suppresses price performance [3]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore futures price fell slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports decreased slightly. Traders' quotes mostly followed the market, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 518,000 tons, a 10.69% decrease compared to the previous period [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: High ore prices have continuously stimulated iron ore supply, and the liquidity of some iron ore at ports has been released. After the end of steel mill production restrictions, molten iron production will increase. The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not obvious, and high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East situation, non - mainstream iron ore shipments, iron ore inventory, and negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for iron ore is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The sentiment affects the market, and coking coal and coke prices will oscillate. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the downstream raw material inventory is high, which suppresses purchasing enthusiasm. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated. Some coal varieties in the production area were affected by the price increase in the external market, and the market sentiment improved. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was stable at around 1,100 yuan/ton. The spot market of coke at ports was stable, and the trading atmosphere in the domestic trade spot market was average [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic coal mine复产 has accelerated, and the supply is relatively loose. The high downstream raw material inventory suppresses purchasing enthusiasm, so coking coal will oscillate in the short term. For coke, the coking profit is acceptable, coke enterprises have resumed production one after another, and steel mills will also increase production steadily later. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is limited, and the price is relatively stable in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle - East situation on coal price sentiment [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is a unilateral oscillation, with no cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [7]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market sentiment has improved, and thermal coal prices have rebounded. The supply of coal is increasing, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. Summary by Related Catalog - **Market Analysis**: The prices of some pit - mouth coal in the main production areas have stabilized and increased, and the port coal prices are basically the same. Affected by the price increase in the external market, the market sentiment has improved, and some terminals and intermediate traders have replenished their inventories. The demand for low - calorie coal at ports is better than that for medium - and high - calorie coal, and the overall inquiry demand has increased. The import cost of imported coal is seriously inverted, and downstream tenders have decreased [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The coal supply is increasing after the end of the Two Sessions, while consumption is weakening due to seasonal factors. The short - term increase in oil and gas prices has not been fully transmitted to coal, so non - power coal demand in the off - season has a greater impact on coal supply and demand. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and inventory replenishment [8]. - **Strategy**: Not provided