公司报告 | 季报点评 风险提示：国内需求疲软；行业竞争加剧；库存积压。 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected 15%+ outperformance relative to the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was under pressure, with revenue and net profit declining significantly year-over-year [2] - Main brand sales fell short of expectations due to weak consumer demand, leading to increased sales expenses [2] - Online channels showed strong growth, with a 47% YoY increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Inventory levels rose significantly, with inventory turnover days increasing by 71.4 days to 346.07 days [5] - The company's cash flow position weakened, with operating cash flow down 98.9% YoY for the first three quarters [6] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q3 revenue was 3.889 billion yuan, down 11.01% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to parent company was 271 million yuan, down 64.88% YoY [2] - 2024 full-year revenue forecast is 21.183 billion yuan, down 1.6% YoY [7] - 2024 full-year net profit forecast is 2.366 billion yuan, down 19.8% YoY [7] Profitability Ratios - 2024E gross margin is expected to be 45.0%, up from 44.5% in 2023 [7] - 2024E net margin is forecast at 11.0%, down from 13.6% in 2023 [7] - ROE is expected to decline to 12.9% in 2024 from 18.4% in 2023 [7] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E ratio is 12x, up from 9x in 2023 [7] - 2024E P/B ratio is 1x, down from 2x in 2023 [7] - EV/EBITDA is expected to increase to 28x in 2024 from 22x in 2023 [7] Business Segment Performance Main Brand - Revenue declined 4.95% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - Gross margin improved by 0.87 percentage points to 45.33% [3] - Q3 2024 revenue was 2.38 billion yuan, down 26.55% YoY [3] Online Channel - Revenue grew 47% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Gross margin declined 1.9 percentage points to 48.37% [4] - The company is focusing on live streaming and short video platforms to drive online sales [4] Store Network - 104 net store closures in the first three quarters of 2024 [4] - Direct-operated stores increased by 127, while franchised stores decreased by 231 [4] - Direct-operated channel revenue grew 4.28% YoY, while franchised channel revenue declined 17.9% [4] Future Outlook - The company expects main brand growth to remain stable, with faster growth in e-commerce and overseas business [6] - Traditional Q4 peak season is expected to bring some recovery [6] - The company is working on improving group buying business and reducing losses in sub-brands [6] - Strategic partnerships, including with JD.com's outlet business, are expected to provide new growth momentum [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] Core Views - Q3 performance was below expectations due to weak terminal sales and rigid costs impacting earnings, but there is potential for marginal improvement as the cold winter sales season approaches [3][4] - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 0.48, 0.56, and 0.62 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [3] - The target price remains at 7.25 CNY, based on a 15x PE ratio for 2024, which aligns with industry averages [3][4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 18,562 million CNY, with a projected increase to 21,528 million CNY in 2023, followed by a decrease to 20,845 million CNY in 2024 [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was 2,155 million CNY in 2022, expected to rise to 2,952 million CNY in 2023, then decrease to 2,321 million CNY in 2024 [2] - The company’s net profit margin is projected to be 11.1% in 2023, with a slight decrease to 11.2% in 2024 [9] Sales Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 15.26 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, with a significant drop in Q3 revenue by 11.0% year-on-year [3] - Online sales outperformed offline sales, with online revenue increasing by 44.7% while offline sales decreased by 11.8% [3] - The company’s main brand, Hai Lan Zhi Jia, saw a revenue decline of 5.0% year-on-year [3] Inventory and Future Outlook - As of Q3, inventory stood at 12.33 billion CNY, an increase of 4.3 billion CNY year-on-year, partly due to the consolidation of the Sporz business [3] - The company anticipates improved inventory turnover and sales performance as the winter season approaches, with plans to expand its main brand and strengthen online sales channels [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a challenging Q3 performance with revenue of 15.259 billion yuan, down 1.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.908 billion yuan, down 22.19% year-on-year. The decline in revenue and net profit was attributed to weak terminal consumption [1] - The main brand and group purchase business faced pressure, while other brands showed high growth due to the consolidation of Sporz. The main brand's revenue in Q3 decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, and group purchase revenue fell by 37.1% year-on-year. However, there is an expectation for improvement in Q4 [1] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 from 27.2 billion, 30.3 billion, and 33.4 billion yuan to 25.1 billion, 31.3 billion, and 34.6 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 9, and 8 times [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 15.259 billion yuan, with quarterly revenues showing a trend of +8.72% in Q1, -5.88% in Q2, and -11.01% in Q3. Net profit for the same period was 1.908 billion yuan, with quarterly net profits of +10.41% in Q1, -14.42% in Q2, and -64.88% in Q3 [1] - The gross profit margin in Q3 was 42.81%, down 1.11 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in overall discounts amid weak terminal sales [1] Brand and Channel Performance - The main brand's revenue in Q3 decreased by 26.5% year-on-year, while the group purchase business saw a 37.1% decline. Other brands, particularly Sporz, experienced a 110% increase in revenue due to consolidation [1] - Online revenue grew by 40% year-on-year in Q3, while offline revenue fell by 26%. The increase in online sales was mainly driven by Sporz's contribution [1] Inventory and Cash Flow - As of Q3 2024, inventory reached 12.334 billion yuan, up 53.5% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days increasing by 71 days to 346 days. The increase in inventory was attributed to the consolidation of Sporz [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q3 was -1.97 billion yuan, primarily due to reduced sales cash receipts and increased cash outflows for Sporz's inventory purchases [1]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating despite weak Q3 performance, with a focus on future retail environment improvement and incremental business growth [2][4] Core Views - Q3 revenue declined by 11% YoY to 3.889 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 64.9% to 271 million yuan, primarily due to weak offline sales and increased negative operating leverage from higher direct-operated store proportion [2] - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with expected net profits of 2.24/2.53/3.00 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 2.78/2.94/3.22 billion yuan [2] - Current PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 12.2/10.8/9.1x, reflecting a cautious outlook on the retail environment [2] Main Brand Performance - Online revenue grew by 39% to 986 million yuan, but excluding the impact of Spozz consolidation and reclassification, actual revenue remained flat [2] - Offline revenue under pressure, with 5,872 stores as of Q3, a net decrease of 104 stores YoY and 36 stores QoQ, while direct-operated stores increased by 65 QoQ, raising the proportion of direct-operated stores to 23.5% [2] - Overseas revenue increased by 20% YoY to 230 million yuan, with 78 overseas stores as of Q3, up by 16 stores since the beginning of the year [2] Other Brands Performance - Other brands' revenue surged by 109.7% to 850 million yuan, driven by Spozz consolidation, with Spozz contributing 900-1,000 million yuan in revenue and a net profit margin of 15%-16% [2] - FCC project expanded rapidly, with nearly 400 stores opened by the end of October, and the Jiangyin Feima Water Town JD Outlet opened in September [2] Profitability and Inventory - Gross margin slightly declined by 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%, while net margin dropped by 11.0 percentage points to 12.3%, mainly due to increased sales expenses from direct-operated stores and higher online marketing costs [2] - Inventory surged by 53.47% to 12.334 billion yuan, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling, weak Q3 sales, and Spozz consolidation, with inventory turnover days increasing by 71 days to 346 days [2] Financial Summary and Valuation - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 20.668 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.235 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.3% YoY decline [3] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 44.2%, with a net margin of 10.8% and ROE of 13.2% [3] - Current PE ratio stands at 12.2x for 2024E, with a PB ratio of 1.6x [3][4]

上 市 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 纺织服饰 2024 年 10 月 31 日 海澜之家 (600398) ——线下动销受零售环境影响，等待大众消费拐点 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 10 月 30 日 | | 收盘价（元） | 6.03 | | 一年内最高 / 最低（元） | 10.04/5.15 | | 市净率 | 1.6 | | 息率（分红/股价） | 13.10 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 28,961 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,266.24/10,530.85 | | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | | 基础数据 : | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | | 3.49 | | 每股净资产（元） | | | 资产负债率 % | 47.46 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an adjusted profit forecast for 2024-2026 [6][4]. Core Views - The main brand is experiencing a recovery phase in offline sales, while the Sboz business is growing rapidly. The overall revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is projected to remain stable year-on-year, with short-term profit pressures but long-term growth potential [4][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's revenue is 15.26 billion yuan, down 2% year-on-year, and net profit is 1.91 billion yuan, down 22% year-on-year. The gross margin is 44.6%, with a net margin of 12.9% [1][4]. - In Q3 2024, revenue is 3.89 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, and net profit is 270 million yuan, down 65% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 42.8% [1][4]. Brand Performance Summary - The main brand's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 is 11.3 billion yuan, down 5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 45.3%. The group purchase and customization series saw a revenue decline of 14% to 1.46 billion yuan [2][4]. - Other brands, including Sboz, reported a revenue increase of 20% to 1.76 billion yuan, significantly boosted by the consolidation of Sboz's financials [2][4]. Channel Performance Summary - Offline sales decreased by 12% to 11.32 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, while online sales increased by 45% to 3.2 billion yuan [3][4]. - Direct sales outperformed franchise sales, with direct sales revenue up 4% to 3.33 billion yuan, while franchise sales fell 4% to 9.73 billion yuan [3][4]. Inventory and Cash Flow Management - Inventory turnover days increased by 71.4 days to 346.1 days, with ending inventory up 53.5% to 12.33 billion yuan, primarily due to the consolidation of Sboz [4][4]. - Operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2024 is reported at 30 million yuan, indicating potential for improvement in cash flow management [4][4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in offline sales for the main brand, with contributions from e-commerce growth, overseas business, and the rapid expansion of Sboz. Overall, revenue for 2024 is expected to be flat year-on-year, with profits under short-term pressure but potential for steady growth in the medium to long term [4][4].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) with a current price of 6.03 CNY [1] Core Views - Short-term performance under pressure, with expectations for retail recovery and multi-business growth [1] - 24Q3 revenue and net profit declined by 2% and 22% YoY respectively, with Q3 performance further weakening [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 15.26 billion CNY, down 2.0% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.91 billion CNY, down 22.2% YoY [1] - Q3 revenue was 3.89 billion CNY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 270 million CNY [1] - Revenue from the Hailan Home series and group purchasing declined, while other brands and online sales showed significant growth [1] - Online sales grew by 44.7% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 online sales increasing by 39.7% [1] - Gross margin remained stable at 44.6%, but expense ratio increased by 2.2 percentage points to 27.1% [1] - Inventory increased by 32.1% to 12.33 billion CNY as of September 2024, with inventory turnover days rising to 346 days [1] Business Performance Breakdown Revenue by Brand - Hailan Home series accounted for 74.1% of revenue, down 5.0% YoY [1] - Group purchasing and customization accounted for 9.6% of revenue, down 13.5% YoY [1] - Other brands accounted for 11.5% of revenue, up 19.6% YoY, driven by the consolidation of Sbozi since April 2024 [1] Revenue by Channel - Direct sales accounted for 21.8% of revenue, up 4.3% YoY [1] - Franchise stores accounted for 63.8% of revenue, down 4.3% YoY [1] - Online sales accounted for 21.0% of revenue, up 44.7% YoY [1] Store Count - Total store count reached 7,129 as of September 2024, a net increase of 252 stores (+3.7%) from the beginning of the year [1] - Hailan Home series stores decreased by 1.7% to 5,872, while other brand stores increased by 39.5% to 1,257, mainly due to Sbozi consolidation [1] Financial Metrics Profitability - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 44.6%, down 0.2 percentage points YoY [1] - Hailan Home series gross margin was 45.33%, up 0.87 percentage points YoY [1] - Group purchasing and customization gross margin was 47.21%, down 0.84 percentage points YoY [1] - Other brands gross margin was 53.27%, down 1.25 percentage points YoY [1] Expense Ratio - Expense ratio increased by 2.2 percentage points to 27.1%, with sales expense ratio up 3.2 percentage points to 22.0% [1] Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory increased by 32.1% to 12.33 billion CNY as of September 2024, with inventory turnover days rising to 346 days [1] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 26.89 million CNY, down 98.9% YoY [1] Future Outlook - Short-term retail environment remains challenging, with expectations for recovery in Q4, traditionally a peak sales season [2] - Promotional policies are expected to boost consumer confidence, benefiting the company as a leading mass-market brand with extensive offline presence [2] - Online channels are growing rapidly, with potential in Sbozi and overseas businesses, expected to drive new growth [2] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 0.48/0.59/0.67 CNY, with 2024/2025 PE ratios at 12/10x, maintaining a "Buy" rating [2] Financial Projections Revenue and Profit - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 21.218 billion CNY, down 1.4% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.329 billion CNY, down 21.1% YoY [3] - Revenue for 2025E is projected at 23.726 billion CNY, up 11.8% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.843 billion CNY, up 22.1% YoY [3] - Revenue for 2026E is projected at 25.578 billion CNY, up 7.8% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.224 billion CNY, up 13.4% YoY [3] Key Ratios - ROE (diluted) for 2024E is projected at 14.6%, with PE ratios at 12x for 2024E and 10x for 2025E [3] - Dividend yield for 2022-2023 was 7.1%/9.3%, with projected yields of 6.9%/8.4%/9.6% for 2024E-2026E [3]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 11.37 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.636 billion yuan [1] - Hailan Home series contributed 8.917 billion yuan in revenue, group purchase and customization business contributed 1.086 billion yuan, and other brands contributed 906 million yuan [1] - Mid-year dividend of 0.23 yuan per share, totaling 1.105 billion yuan distributed [1] Overseas Expansion - Successfully entered markets in Maldives and Kenya, with total overseas stores reaching 68 [3] - Overseas revenue reached 161 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.44% [3] - Plans to expand into Central Asia and the Middle East in the second half of 2024 [3] Online Business Development - Online channel revenue reached 2.212 billion yuan, a 47% year-on-year increase [4] - Gross margin for online channels was approximately 49% [4] - Key product launches included "Dragon Soaring IP Series", "Fresh Jacket Series", and "Lanzizi Sunscreen Series" [4] Strategic Investments and Partnerships - Acquired 51% stake in Spoz, which manages Adidas retail business in mainland China [5] - Partnered with JD.com for outlet stores, with first JD Outlet store opening in Wuxi on September 25, 2024 [6] Market Conditions and Strategy - Domestic consumer market recovery fell short of expectations in the first half of 2024 [1] - Company focused on market-oriented innovation, brand building, and channel optimization [1] - Future dividend policy will prioritize cash dividends while ensuring sustainable development [1]

证券代码：600398 证券简称：海澜之家 海澜之家集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动汇总表 编号：2024-004 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 公司现场接待 | 电话接待 | | 形式 | 其它场所接待 | 公开说明会 | | | 定期报告说明会 | 重要公告说明会 | | 参与单位名称 | 参与业绩说明会的广大投资者 | | | 时间 | 2024 年 8 月 30 日 9:00-10:00 | | | 地点 | 上证路演中心（ | http://roadshow.sseinfo.com ） | | 公司接待人 姓名及职务 | 董事长、总经理（总裁） 董事、副总经理（ ...