行 业 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业双周报（2025/10/31-2025/11/13） 美联储降息预期存疑，黄金白银大幅震荡 2025 年 11 月 14 日 投资要点： 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾。截至2025年11月13日，申万有色金属行业近两周上涨0.99%，跑赢 沪深300指数1.15个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第24名。截至2025年11 月13日，近两周有色金属行业子板块中，能源金属板块上涨3.52%，贵金属板 块上涨2.58%，工业金属板块上涨2.34%，金属新材料板块下跌4.06%，小金属 板块下跌5.21%。 周 报 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 申万有色金属行业指数走势 工业金属。铜方面，据上海有色网报道，ICSG（国际铜研究组织）预计2025 年全球铜矿增长率仅为1.4%，主要因Grasberg铜矿以及Kamoa铜矿的重大事 故。ICSG预计2025年将有约17.8万吨的过剩，略低于该小组今年4月的预测。 而对于2026年，目前预计将出现约15万吨的短缺。同时，铜下游新能源领域 需求持续提升，供需格局向好有望进一步推升铜价上行。全球降息周期 ...

2025年11月13日早盘，A股三大指数低开高走，稀有金属板块持续爆发。场内ETF方面，截至10:54，中证稀有金属主题指数(930632)强势上涨5.31%，成分股 天华新能(300390)上涨15.38%，雅化集团(002497)、永兴材料(002756)、盛新锂能(002240)、融捷股份(002192)纷纷10cm涨停。稀有金属ETF基金(561800)上 涨5.21%。 流动性方面，稀有金属ETF基金盘中换手9.11%，成交1757.64万元。拉长时间看，截至11月12日，稀有金属ETF基金近1月日均成交3067.89万元。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 3.16% | 11.07% | | 603993 | 洛阳辑业 | 5.04% | 9.89% | | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 7.18% | 8.60% | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | 7.75% | 6.98% | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 7.10% | 6.12% | | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | ...

每经AI快讯，11月13日，稀土永磁指数盘中上涨2.01%，成分股多数走强，盛新锂能涨停，中钢天源、 盛和资源、厦门钨业、科恒股份涨幅居前。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

证券之星消息，11月12日小金属板块较上一交易日下跌1.14%，东方钽业领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4000.14，下跌0.07%。深证成指报收于13240.62，下跌0.36%。小金属板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日小金属板块主力资金净流出6.88亿元，游资资金净流出8655.66万元，散户资金 净流入7.75亿元。小金属板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000657 | 中钨高新 | 1.68 Z | 5.77% | -1630.58万 | -0.56% | -1.52 Z | -5.21% | | 002738 中矿资源 | | 1.19亿 | 9.30% | -4367.61万 | -3.42% | -7521.74万 | -5.88% | | 000960 铝亚股份 | | 1.15 | 9.03% | 599.54万 | - 0.47% | -1.21 乙 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of November 11, the margin financing and securities lending balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 24,974 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 38.96 billion yuan from the previous trading day, indicating a positive trend in market liquidity and investor confidence [1]. Market Overview - The financing balance specifically amounted to 24,792.66 billion yuan, with an increase of 40.22 billion yuan from the previous day. The Shanghai market's margin balance was 12,755.65 billion yuan, up by 30.43 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market's balance was 12,218.35 billion yuan, increasing by 8.52 billion yuan [1]. Stock Performance - A total of 1,694 stocks experienced net inflows of financing funds. Among these, 55 stocks had net buy amounts exceeding 10% of their total trading volume. The top three stocks by net buy percentage were Andar Intelligent (20.85%), Tengya Precision (19.05%), and Mifeng Technology (18.66%) [2][3]. Significant Net Inflows - There were 28 stocks with net buy amounts exceeding 100 million yuan. The top three stocks in terms of net buy amount were Baofeng Energy (268 million yuan), Jiangbolong (257 million yuan), and China Duty Free Group (252 million yuan) [7].

Market Overview - The small metals sector experienced a decline of 1.51% on November 11, with Zhongtung High-tech leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76, down 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.0, down 1.03% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the small metals sector included: - Dongfang Cuo Industry: Closed at 13.87, up 4.68% with a trading volume of 660,500 shares and a turnover of 900.2 million yuan [1] - Huaxi Nonferrous: Closed at 31.84, up 3.54% with a trading volume of 224,800 shares and a turnover of 714 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Zhongtung High-tech: Closed at 22.30, down 3.84% with a trading volume of 1,091,300 shares and a turnover of 2.46 billion yuan [2] - Zhongkuang Resources: Closed at 59.24, down 3.11% with a trading volume of 239,900 shares and a turnover of 1.445 billion yuan [2] Capital Flow - The small metals sector saw a net outflow of 1.224 billion yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.095 billion yuan [2][3] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Xiamen Tungsten: Net inflow from major funds was 134 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 17.42 million yuan [3] - Dongfang Cuo Industry: Net inflow from major funds was 125 million yuan, with retail funds also experiencing a net outflow of 10.38 million yuan [3]

格隆汇11月11日｜国元证券研报指出，厦门钨业2025年Q3业绩高增长，全年业绩值得期待。利润增长 主要受益于钨和稀土价格上行及销量提升带动，公司通过优化产品与价格联动助力盈利能力大幅度提 升，为全年业绩高增长奠定基础。25年Q1-Q3钨钼业务利润增长，供需格局趋紧助力钨价高位运行；光 伏钨丝下游渗透持续提升，切削工具业务升级驱动销量增长；三大板块重点项目有序推进。公司构建了 前端钨矿山采选，中端钨钼冶炼及钨钼粉末生产，后端硬质合金、钨钼丝材制品和切削刀具等深加工应 用及回收的全产业链，选取中钨高新、章源钨业、欧科亿作为可比公司。2025年三家可比公司PE均值 为52.84，与行业相比，厦门钨业PE值较低，具备投资价值。给予"增持"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The overall industrial metal prices have experienced a decline, particularly in the overseas market, primarily due to liquidity issues in the US banking system. The government shutdown has led to a tightening of cash balances, impacting global risk assets. Concerns over power shortages in North America due to data center developments have raised fears of production halts in high-energy-consuming sectors like aluminum and zinc, resulting in relatively strong prices for these commodities. The lithium industry has seen a turnaround, with improving supply-demand fundamentals. The uncertainty in overseas resource development and weak profitability due to low lithium prices have peaked capital expenditures in the industry by 2024-2025, with a confirmed trend of declining supply growth from 2026 to 2028. By 2026, equity values are expected to outperform commodity prices, potentially leading the market out of a downturn [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The ongoing US government shutdown has heightened risk aversion, which is expected to drive gold prices higher in the short term. The report emphasizes that gold prices are currently stabilizing rather than indicating a trend reversal. Historically, gold prices tend to peak early in a rate-cutting cycle, and the current macroeconomic environment suggests that gold may not have reached its peak yet. The report maintains a positive outlook for gold, suggesting that the market is entering a phase of systematic re-evaluation [4]. Industrial Metals - The report highlights a long-term positive outlook for copper and aluminum. Recent price adjustments in these metals are attributed to liquidity issues in the US. The report notes that copper inventories have increased by 4.68% week-on-week and 25.01% year-on-year, while aluminum inventories have decreased by 0.49% week-on-week and 13.31% year-on-year. The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term economic outlook and supply-demand structure will favor a strong cycle for copper and aluminum [4][5]. Energy and Minor Metals - The lithium sector is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle. The report indicates that the darkest period for the lithium industry has passed, with a clear trend of improving supply-demand fundamentals. The demand for lithium is projected to grow significantly due to stable domestic power needs and the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization. The report also highlights the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with expectations of a new upward trend in prices due to supply constraints and increased demand [5][24]. Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the high concentration of supply in cobalt and nickel, with specific attention to the Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt quotas and Indonesia's tightening supply policies for nickel. These factors are expected to support long-term price increases for both cobalt and nickel, benefiting resource-oriented companies [5][24].

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd. by Fujian Provincial Industrial Holding Group Co., Ltd. has been completed through the transfer of 80% equity of Fujian Metallurgy, making Fujian Industrial the indirect controlling shareholder of Xiamen Tungsten [1][3][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Process - Fujian Provincial Industrial Holding Group acquired 80% equity of Fujian Metallurgy from the Fujian Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, resulting in a 30.90% indirect ownership in Xiamen Tungsten [3][4]. - The acquisition was exempt from making a public offer as it met the criteria outlined in the Acquisition Management Measures [3]. - The completion of the acquisition was officially registered on July 4, 2025, with all necessary documentation filed [2][5]. Group 2: Ongoing Supervision - The financial advisor will monitor the operational status of Xiamen Tungsten from July 1, 2025, to July 4, 2026, ensuring compliance with the regulations during this period [2]. - The financial advisor has confirmed that both the acquirer and the listed company have fulfilled their disclosure obligations regarding the acquisition [6][21]. Group 3: Compliance and Governance - During the supervision period, the governance of the listed company has been found to be compliant with relevant laws and regulations, with no violations detected [6][21]. - The acquirer has made commitments to maintain the independence of the listed company and avoid conflicts of interest, which have been adhered to during the supervision period [8][21]. Group 4: Future Plans - The acquirer has no plans to change the main business operations of Xiamen Tungsten or make significant adjustments within the next 12 months following the acquisition [9][10]. - There are no plans for major asset disposals, mergers, or changes in the board of directors or senior management within the same timeframe [11][12][13]. Group 5: Dividend Policy - The acquirer has not proposed any significant changes to the dividend policy of Xiamen Tungsten, and the company has announced a shareholder return plan for the next three years [17][21].

兴业证券股份有限公司 关于厦门钨业股份有限公司收购报告书之 2025 年第三季度持续督导意见 兴业证券股份有限公司（以下简称"兴业证券""本财务顾问"）接受福建省 工业控股集团有限公司（以下简称"省工控集团""收购人"）的委托，担任其收 购厦门钨业股份有限公司（以下简称"厦门钨业""上市公司""公司"）的财务 顾问。 2025 年 7 月 1 日，厦门钨业公告了《收购报告书》，福建省人民政府国有资 产监督管理委员会（以下简称"福建省国资委"）将持有的福建省冶金（控股） 有限责任公司（以下简称"福建冶金"）80%股权无偿划转至省工控集团，前述 重组完成后，省工控集团成为厦门钨业的间接控股股东。 2025 年 7 月 4 日，上述股权变更的工商变更手续办理完毕。 根据《上市公司收购管理办法》（以下简称"《收购管理办法》"）第七十一条， "自收购人公告上市公司收购报告书至收购完成后 12 个月内，财务顾问应当通 过日常沟通、定期回访等方式，关注上市公司的经营情况，结合被收购公司定期 报告和临时公告的披露事宜，对收购人及被收购公司履行持续督导职责"，本财 务顾问持续督导期为 2025 年 7 月 1 日至 2026 ...