Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [6] Core Views - The high-end liquor prices have rebounded, which may temporarily boost market confidence. The current Shenyin Wanguo white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18.66X, which is 3.13% lower than the reasonable level over the past decade. The dividend returns from leading liquor companies are attractive, and consumer spending is expected to gradually recover, suggesting a focus on recovery opportunities in the sector [1][13][19]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From September 22 to September 26, the food and beverage sector declined by 2.49%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% and the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.07%. Specific sub-sectors include soft drinks (+0.86%), meat products (-0.02%), beer (-0.77%), snacks (-1.33%), and others [20]. Weekly Updates - **Liquor**: The white liquor sector fell by 3.03%, underperforming the overall food and beverage sector. High-end liquor prices have increased, with Feitian Moutai rising by 90 yuan per bottle over five days. Despite slight pressure on consumption, the price increase may boost market confidence [1][13]. - **Yellow Wine**: Key players like Kuaijishan and Guyuelongshan saw declines of 5.80% and 2.24%, respectively. The sector is entering a verification phase for product distribution and sales [2]. - **Beer**: The beer sector decreased by 0.77%. Notable companies include Qingdao Beer (+0.2%) and Yanjing Beer (+1.7%). Future consumption policies are expected to drive sales recovery [2][14]. - **Soft Drinks**: The soft drink sector showed positive performance, with significant gains from companies like Yangyuan Beverage (+32.49%) and Jinziham (+11.93%). The sector remains attractive due to ongoing trends [3][15]. Investment Recommendations - **White Liquor**: Focus on three main lines: strong beta stocks (e.g., Jiugui Liquor, Shui Jing Fang), recovery concept stocks (e.g., Yingjia Gongjiu), and strong alpha stocks (e.g., Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai) [19]. - **Beer**: Emphasize three main lines: sustained growth stocks (e.g., Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring), potential performance rebound stocks (e.g., Angel Yeast), and category expansion stocks (e.g., Kuaijishan) [19]. Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE ratio is 21.0 times, ranking 22nd among primary industries. The soft drink sector has the highest valuation increase this week, while the health product sector saw the smallest decrease [28]. Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas is 3.03 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.50%. The decline in prices has been narrowing since the beginning of the year [18].

公司报告 | 半年报点评 舍得酒业（600702） 证券研究报告 普通酒高增贡献增长，静待拐点来临 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。 2025H1 公司营业 收 入/ 归母 净利 润 分别为 27.01/4.43 亿 元（ 同比 -17.41%/-24.98%）。2025Q2 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别为 11.25/0.97 亿 元（同比-3.44%/+139.48%）。 沱牌结构优化成效突出，次高端需求偏弱中高档酒仍承压。25Q2 公司酒 类业务营收 9.76 亿元（同比-4.52%）。 分产品 来看， 中高 档酒/ 普通酒 营收 分别为 7.39/2.37 亿元 （同比 -15.65%/+62.25%），中高档酒下滑预计主要系 Q2"禁酒令"影响之下次高 端价位需求承压明显；普通酒增长突出主要系：①24Q2 低基数；②T68 等 升级单品延续 Q1 以来放量势能。 分渠道看，批发/电商营收分别为 8.45/1.31 亿元（同比-7.80%/+23.83%） ; 分区域看，省内/省外营收分别为 2.89/6.86 亿元（同比-21.20%/+4.84%）。 产品结构下行毛利率阶段略承压，费用率下 ...

上海北外滩贵州茅台快闪店 ◎记者 郭成林 高志刚 你见过白酒的"盲盒"吗？ 上海证券报记者注意到，近日，舍得酒业的电商平台旗舰店和社交媒体主页上频现俏皮亮色：公司推出 名为"马上有舍得"的系列小酒盲盒，作为旗下首款明确将年轻人作为主要目标消费群体的酒款。 舍得酒业并非中国白酒试水"年轻化"的孤例。 近年来，一批白酒企业在产品研发、市场营销、品牌传播等方面进行了各种创新探索。随着新生代逐渐 成为消费主力，行业亦正经历一场全方位的深刻重塑。 "低度化是迎合新生代对微醺感觉的重要方向和手段。"中国食品产业分析师朱丹蓬在接受上海证券报记 者采访时分析，老一代酒桌文化的核心更多是"悦人"，而新生代已转向"悦己"，这背后的消费逻辑已发 生根本变化。 中国酒业协会数据显示，2025年低度酒市场规模将突破740亿元，年复合增长率达25%，这一增速远超 白酒行业整体水平。 酒企掀起"降度潮" 中国酒业协会报告显示，白酒主力消费群体正在进行代际更迭：1985年至1994年出生人群已成为新主 力，占比达34%；1995年后出生的成年群体占比达18%，年轻消费力量持续崛起。 基于对消费趋势的敏锐洞察，今年以来，多家白酒企业加速布局低 ...

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant rally on September 29, with the Food ETF (515710) reaching an intraday price increase of up to 1.3% before settling at a 0.98% gain [1][3] - Key stocks in the sector showed strong performance, with Yangyuan Beverage soaring over 7%, and major liquor brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongji rising over 3% [1][3] - The Food ETF (515710) has seen substantial net inflows, with a total of 55.71 million yuan in net subscriptions over the last five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 2 - Sales of popular gift items such as liquor and mooncakes surged ahead of the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with liquor sales on Meituan increasing approximately eightfold year-on-year [3][4] - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is considered low, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.21, placing it in the lower 5.88% percentile over the past decade, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [3][4] - Analysts predict a recovery in the liquor sector due to government policies promoting high-quality development, with expectations for Maotai's prices to rebound as market conditions improve [4][5] Group 3 - The food and beverage industry is witnessing significant policy catalysts, such as the upcoming public consultation on the national standards for prepared food safety, which may benefit leading brands [4][5] - The Food ETF (515710) is strategically positioned, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in other beverage and food segments [5] - Investors can also access core assets in the food and beverage sector through the Food ETF linked funds [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8][56]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is expected to face pressure during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival due to cautious inventory stocking and a significant impact on group purchasing channels. However, traditional channels like instant retail and live streaming are experiencing rapid growth, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [6][54]. - The report highlights opportunities in high-growth segments such as prepared dishes and snacks, driven by policy support and market expansion. The introduction of national standards for prepared dishes is expected to benefit leading companies in the sector [7][55]. - The beverage sector is approaching peak season, with a focus on new consumer opportunities and retail channel transformations. Companies like "Naixue's Tea" and "Chabaidao" are highlighted for their growth potential [8][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly News Summary - Industry news includes the selection of five liquor companies for the Zhejiang Province Industrial Heritage list and a 1.7% growth in Guizhou's liquor and tea manufacturing from January to August [6][20]. - Company news features Guizhou Moutai's investment in a biotechnology company and the launch of "Longma Liquor" by Langjiu [6][21]. 2. Key Company Feedback - The report provides insights into the performance of key companies in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on stock price movements and market trends [32][34]. - The white liquor industry saw a cumulative production of 4.145 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.72%, while revenue reached 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% [36][38]. 3. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the white liquor sector such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks like JiuGui Jiu and SheDe JiuYe [6][54]. - In the snack sector, companies like Wancheng Group and Anjiu Food are recommended due to their market positioning and growth potential [7][55]. 4. Key Company and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with their respective stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and investment ratings, all indicating a "Buy" recommendation [10][25]. - Notable companies include Guizhou Moutai with a stock price of 1435.00 yuan and an EPS of 68.64 for 2024, and Wuliangye with a stock price of 120.17 yuan and an EPS of 8.21 for 2024 [10][25].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a left-side configuration opportunity in the white liquor segment [3][12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the core products in the liquor industry, such as Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye, have seen a rebound in wholesale prices, attributed to effective channel management by manufacturers [2][12]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume in the white liquor sector will decline by approximately 20% year-on-year, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the increasing diversification of purchasing channels for liquor, with a notable shift towards online and new media platforms, which is reshaping consumer behavior [2][12][14]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The report notes a recovery in the wholesale prices of key products, driven by improved channel management and a positive reception during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][12]. - It suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a phase where inventory levels can be significantly reduced, leading to a temporary release of price pressure [12][14]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions and exploring potential catalysts in the broader liquor market [3][12][14]. Beer - The beer sector is experiencing steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-draft channels and soft drinks [14]. - The report encourages continued attention to the beer sector due to its solid performance and dividend levels [3][14]. Yellow Wine - The yellow wine industry is seeing price increases among leading brands, which may lead to a more stable competitive landscape [14]. - The report highlights the importance of marketing and product innovation in the yellow wine sector as it approaches peak season [14]. Snacks - The snack industry is maintaining high growth, with new retail channels expanding rapidly and product diversity increasing [4][15]. - The report suggests that the upcoming holiday season will boost demand for snack products, particularly nut gift boxes [4][15]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is nearing the end of its peak season, with segments like energy drinks and sugar-free teas showing strong growth [4][16]. - The report indicates that traditional categories are facing challenges, but health-oriented products are performing well [4][16]. Condiments - The condiment sector is stabilizing, with expectations of demand recovery in the restaurant chain segment [5][17]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and improving profit margins [5][17].

"候补几天都抢不到回家的票，看来里约热内泸终于火了？"有泸州网友在小红书上发帖。 21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 最近不少泸州人发现，今年国庆进出泸州的动车、机票紧俏得不寻常。 今年国庆中秋长假期间，泸州将迎来本地少有的大型音乐节，此外"川超"比赛泸州队首场主场赛事也将 开打。多家OTA平台的节前数据显示，泸州今年双节高星酒店预订量翻番，节前一周的机票搜索量同比 增长超过60%，热度远超同体量层级城市。 国庆长假一向是国人的出游高峰期，也是酒水、饮品等快消品的营销阵地，今年因为地方足球联赛和各 类音乐节的加持，受到更多品牌商的关注。 21世纪经济报道记者梳理发现，长假前到长假期间，全国范围内共有二十多场音乐节举行，多集中在非 一线城市，其中南京、常州、泸州、拉萨等地的音乐节不乏酒水、饮料等消费品牌赞助。光是泸州银河 左岸音乐节，赞助商名单里就集齐了泸州老窖（000568）、郎酒、乐堡啤酒等知名品牌。 在"苏超"爆火后，过去几周"赣超"、"湘超"、"渝超"、"鲁超"、"川超"等地方城市联赛纷纷开赛，成为 各地拉动周末经济、夜间经济的新亮点。 成都近年赛事经济的活跃，给"川超"奠定了人气基础。 9月20日傍晚，2万多名 ...

21世纪经济报道记者肖夏 最近不少泸州人发现，今年国庆进出泸州的动车、机票紧俏得不寻常。 "候补几天都抢不到回家的票，看来里约热内泸终于火了？"有泸州网友在小红书上发帖。 今年国庆中秋长假期间，泸州将迎来本地少有的大型音乐节，此外"川超"比赛泸州队首场主场赛事也将 开打。多家OTA平台的节前数据显示，泸州今年双节高星酒店预订量翻番，节前一周的机票搜索量同比 增长超过60%，热度远超同体量层级城市。 这也同样吸引了正在开展旺季营销的酒企。21世纪经济报道记者不完全梳理，全国共有近20场地方城市 联赛将在长假前夕到长假期间开打，吸引了包括五粮液、郎酒、泸州老窖、舍得沱牌、重庆啤酒、四特 酒、黄河啤酒等各地酒企支持。 成都近年赛事经济的活跃，给"川超"奠定了人气基础。 9月20日傍晚，2万多名观众冒雨登上了成都双流体育中心的看台，等待2025-2026四川省城市足球联赛 揭幕战吹响。 "双流体育中心很久没这么热闹了，外面球迷嘉年华摆摊的老板高兴惨了。"家住成都双流的张慧超对21 世纪经济报道记者说。首场"川超"是成都队主场对阵遂宁队。张慧超老家在遂宁射洪，定居成都多年。 为了看老家、新家球队对阵，他早就抢好了门票。 ...

我国零售行业经历了传统零售、电商、新零售的发展过程，即时零售极大缩短履约时间、丰富消费者选 择。近年来我国即时零售规模迅速扩大，2025年外卖大战边际催化，行业有望在未来几年维持双位数增 长。具体到酒水领域，酒类即时零售最早发源于1919、酒小二等垂类平台，2015年前后加速，形成垂 类、平台型、仓店一体型、前置仓型4类渠道模式；与此同时酒企加大布局与合作，酒类即时零售渗透 率显著提升。 酒类即时零售的兴起主要有三方面原因 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近年来我国即时零售规模迅速扩大，2025年外卖大战边际催 化，行业有望在未来几年维持双位数增长。回顾历史，白酒周期更替通常伴随渠道变革，当前行业深度 调整，较弱的价格和动销、较高的库存冲击线下传统渠道利润和现金流，而线上渠道仍较为景气，拥抱 即时零售不失为一种应变方式。据美团闪购测算2027年我国酒类即时零售市场规模有望达1000亿元、复 合增速有望接近中双位数，白酒、啤酒等核心品类有望受益。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 即时零售：大盘景气，酒类积极参与 一是消费习惯改变，消费者愈发追求便捷，且临时需求激发后希望快速得到满足。二是契合性价比需 求，压缩流 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article is that Shede Liquor is innovating its product offerings to attract younger consumers while maintaining its traditional old liquor strategy [1][2] - The newly launched "马上有舍得" series of small liquor blind boxes targets young consumers with a playful design and a lower price point of 98 yuan per 100ml bottle, making it more accessible [1][4] - Shede's "舍得自在" product, priced at 329 yuan for 500ml, features a lower alcohol content and aims to provide a comfortable choice for consumers, expanding the boundaries of old liquor consumption [2][4] Group 2 - Shede Liquor is focusing on e-commerce as a key sales channel, with significant growth in online sales, achieving 336 million yuan in e-commerce revenue, a year-on-year increase of 31.38% [5][4] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with JD.com to enhance its online presence and is actively pursuing new sales channels, including live-streaming e-commerce [4][5] - Internationally, Shede has expanded its market presence, with a 50% year-on-year increase in sales revenue in Southeast Asia and operations in 40 countries and regions [6][5] Group 3 - Shede Liquor is investing in a joint venture for a "liquor tourism integration project" with a total investment of 1.2 billion yuan, aiming for an internal rate of return of 8.5% over an estimated payback period of 11.47 years [8][8] - The company is actively addressing inventory pressure, with a total inventory of 5.603 billion yuan as of mid-2025, and is continuing its production expansion projects with a total investment of 7.054 billion yuan [10][10] - As of the report period, Shede has invested 1.05 billion yuan in its expansion project, with a cumulative investment of 1.762 billion yuan, indicating a progress rate of approximately 31% [10][10]