Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing cyclical opportunities due to supply and demand clearing, with performance advantages evident in beverages, snacks, and raw materials. The financials of the liquor sector are improving, particularly for Moutai [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing holdings in growth stocks within beverages, snacks, and food sectors, highlighting the performance advantages. It recommends overweight positions in elastic liquor stocks such as Hong Kong-listed Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede Liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Jiu Gui Jiu. For stable mid-term holdings, it suggests Wuliangye, Guizhou Moutai, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jianshiyuan, and Guqingongjiu. In the beverage sector, it recommends increasing positions in leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Chengde Lulou, as well as Hong Kong-listed Nongfu Spring, Master Kong Holdings, and China Resources Beverage. For snacks and food raw materials, it suggests increasing holdings in Bailong Chuangyuan, Yanjinpuzi, Three Squirrels, and Ximai Foods, along with Hong Kong-listed Weilong Delicious. In the beer segment, it recommends increasing positions in Tsingtao Brewery, Zhujiang Brewery, and Bai Run Shares, as well as Hong Kong-listed China Resources Beer. For condiments and livestock, it suggests increasing holdings in Yili Group, New Dairy, Youran Livestock, Modern Farming, Baoli Foods, and Haitian Flavoring [8][9] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is seeing a clearing of financials, with Moutai showing signs of improved sales. In Q2 2025, high-end, sub-high-end, and regional liquor revenues grew by 3%, declined by 5%, and decreased by 27% year-on-year, respectively. Net profits for these categories also showed a similar trend. The consumption environment is suppressing industry demand, leading to accelerated inventory reduction. Moutai's official data indicates a recovery in terminal sales as traditional festivals approach, with significant month-on-month growth observed since late August. The company emphasizes sustainable high-quality development, which may alleviate supply-demand conflicts and support pricing [9][10] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is characterized by structural growth, with beverages performing well, stable beer sales, and significant differentiation in snacks. The leading companies in condiments are showing advantages, while dairy products are experiencing marginal improvements. The report suggests that new consumer leaders in food additives, health products, beverages, and snacks have potential for future growth, driven by innovation and management strategies that could widen the gap with competitors [11]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a pullback on September 12, with the Food ETF (515710) declining by 1.23% by the end of the trading day [1] - Key stocks in the sector, such as liquor and dairy products, saw significant declines, with Guizhou Moutai dropping 5.28% and Shede Liquor down 3.09% [1] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by recent consumption stimulus policies introduced in various regions, which are expected to boost domestic consumption during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [3][5] Group 2 - Analysts from Dongxing Securities are optimistic about the recovery of the consumer sector in the second half of the year, particularly in the restaurant industry, driven by tourism and sports economies [3] - The Food ETF manager noted that the current low valuation of the food and beverage sector presents a good investment opportunity, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.52, which is at the 11.76% percentile of the past decade [4] - The white liquor sector is expected to see a recovery as multiple policies are anticipated to improve demand, especially during the upcoming holidays [5][6] Group 3 - The white liquor sector faced significant challenges in the second quarter due to policy impacts, but there are signs of recovery as consumer scenarios improve [6] - The Food ETF (515710) is strategically positioned with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in other beverage and dairy segments [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing in 2025, with significant declines in production, profits, and increasing inventory pressures among distributors [1][2]. Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%. Sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19%, while profits fell to 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% [1]. - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory, with over half facing price inversion issues, indicating weak terminal consumption and reduced willingness to collect payments from distributors [1][2]. Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 experienced revenue declines, accounting for 68% of the total, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The market is increasingly favoring leading companies, with the top six liquor firms accounting for 47% of revenue and 62.2% of total profits in 2024, marking a 13 percentage point increase over five years [2]. Profitability Trends - The wholesale price index for liquor has been declining, with notable drops in prices for major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a broader trend of price decreases across the industry [3][4]. - Only three companies saw an increase in gross margin, while 16 experienced declines, with the most significant drops reported by Jiugui Liquor, Shede Liquor, and Kouzi Liquor [4][7]. - The average net profit margin for many companies has also decreased, with Jiugui Liquor, Shunxin Agriculture, and Water Well Square showing the most significant declines [4][7]. Market Dynamics - The growth logic of the liquor industry is changing, with a shift from "volume reduction and price increase" to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [2][3]. - Smaller liquor companies, particularly those with revenues below 5 billion yuan, are facing the most severe impacts, entering a destocking phase earlier than larger firms [4][5][6]. Financial Highlights - In the first half of 2025, the total net profit for 19 listed liquor companies was 97.003 billion yuan, with Moutai and Wuliangye accounting for 69% of this total [8]. - Six leading liquor companies contributed to 94% of the total net profit, while 11 companies reported net profits below 1 billion yuan, with some even incurring losses [8].

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor industry is entering a period of accelerated clearing in 2025, with significant declines in production and profits [1][3] - A majority of liquor distributors are facing increased inventory pressures, leading to a negative feedback loop affecting sales and payment collection [2][3] Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, the total production of the liquor industry was 1.9159 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, while sales revenue reached 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19%. Profits fell to 87.687 billion yuan, down 10.93% year-on-year [1] - 58.1% of distributors reported increased inventory, with over half experiencing price inversion issues, and the average inventory turnover days reached 900 days, an increase of 10% compared to the previous year [1] Company Performance - Among 19 listed liquor companies, 13 reported revenue declines, accounting for 68%, with a significant slowdown in revenue growth compared to the previous year [3] - The market is increasingly favoring leading companies, with the top six liquor firms accounting for 47% of revenue and 62.2% of total profits in 2024, marking increases of 13 and 9 percentage points respectively over five years [3] - The growth logic of the liquor industry is changing, with the previous "volume reduction, price increase" model failing, leading to simultaneous declines in both volume and price [3][4] Profitability Trends - The gross and net profit margins of listed liquor companies are generally declining, with only three companies showing an increase in gross margin [5] - The most significant declines in gross margin were observed in companies like Jiu Gui Jiu, She De Jiu Ye, and Kou Zi Jiao [5][7] - In the first half of 2025, only three companies improved their net profit margin, while 16 experienced declines, with the most severe drops in Jiu Gui Jiu, Shui Jing Fang, and Yang He Guo Jiu [5][8] Market Dynamics - The average gross margin for leading companies like Guizhou Moutai is 91.3%, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye follow with 87.09% and 76.83% respectively [8] - Four companies reported gross margins below 60%, with Shunxin Agriculture having the lowest at 34.36% [8] - The total net profit for 19 listed liquor companies reached 97.003 billion yuan, with Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye accounting for 69% of this total [8][9]

Market Overview - On September 12, the liquor sector declined by 0.79% compared to the previous trading day, with Jiu Gui Jiu leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3883.69, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.38, up 0.13% [1] Liquor Sector Performance - The following table summarizes the closing prices, percentage changes, trading volumes, and transaction amounts for key liquor stocks: - Jiu Gui Jiu (000799): Closed at 70.44, down 3.89%, with a trading volume of 300,400 shares and a transaction amount of 2.182 billion [1] - She De Jiu Ye (600702): Closed at 66.45, down 2.65%, with a trading volume of 148,100 shares and a transaction amount of 1.003 billion [1] - Shui Jing Fang (600779): Closed at 45.97, down 1.94%, with a trading volume of 49,200 shares and a transaction amount of 228 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Quan Wei Jiu (616809), ST Yan Shi (600696), and Ying Jia Gong Jiu (603198) with respective declines [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 1.307 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 1.057 billion [1] - The following table details the capital flow for specific liquor stocks: - Jiu Gui Jiu (000799): Institutional net outflow of 332 million, retail net inflow of 342 million [2] - She De Jiu Ye (600702): Institutional net outflow of 149 million, retail net inflow of 12 million [2] - Shui Jing Fang (600779): Institutional net outflow of 57 million, retail net inflow of 46 million [2] - Other stocks also showed varying degrees of institutional outflows and retail inflows [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively launching new products and strategies to adapt to the changing market dynamics in the liquor industry, particularly focusing on low-alcohol beverages and leveraging cultural IP for brand positioning [2][3][11]. Product Launches - The company has introduced new high-end liquor products, including "舍得·万木争春" and "舍得坛装酒·舍得智慧人物," marking its first celebrity collaboration in the premium liquor segment [2]. - The new low-alcohol product "舍得自在," priced at 329 yuan, is positioned as a "low-alcohol drinking type" liquor, utilizing a blend of aged spirits [3][4]. Market Trends - The low-alcohol liquor market is experiencing significant growth, with a projected market size exceeding 740 billion yuan and a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25% over the past five years, compared to the overall liquor industry's growth of 2%-3% [3]. - The company aims to target diverse consumer scenarios, including social gatherings and home consumption, with its low-alcohol offerings [4]. Sales Performance - The pre-sale of the new products on JD.com saw rapid consumer interest, with 20,000 people adding items to their carts within 24 hours and over 12,000 orders placed in 36 hours [5]. - The company's overall revenue for the first half of the year was 2.701 billion yuan, with a net profit of 443 million yuan, showing signs of recovery in the second quarter [13]. Strategic Focus - The company is implementing a strategy centered on "old liquor, multi-brand matrix, youthfulness, and internationalization," focusing on enhancing brand value while expanding its market reach [9]. - The management plans to establish "舍得" as the leading brand in the old liquor category and "沱牌" as a cost-effective mass-market brand [11]. Financial Health - The company reported a 31.38% year-on-year increase in e-commerce sales, amounting to 336 million yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a successful shift towards online sales channels [17]. - The company is actively managing inventory and pricing strategies to stabilize its financial performance, with a slight decrease in contract liabilities and an increase in inventory levels [16][14].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new high-end liquor products "Shede·Wanmuzhengchun" and "Shede Tan Zhuang Jiu·Shede Wisdom Figures" marks a significant step for Shede Liquor in extending its cultural IP into commercial operations, aiming to enhance its presence in the high-end private sector and implement a "comprehensive towards C" strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Product Launch and Strategy - The new products represent a deep collaboration between Shede Liquor and renowned media figure Lang Yongchun, emphasizing the shared values of "wisdom" and cultural resonance [2]. - The products are positioned not just as beverages but as tangible representations of time and experience, aiming to enhance consumers' appreciation of high-quality aged liquor [2]. - The launch is part of a broader strategy to break into elite consumer circles by leveraging the cultural strength of the "Shede Wisdom Figures" IP and Lang Yongchun's personal brand [2][3]. Group 2: Product Value Proposition - The new products are built on the core value of "rare aged liquor," focusing on four dimensions: ecological rarity, unique craftsmanship, limited collectibility, and cultural premium [3]. - The ecological aspect highlights the production site located in a prime winemaking region with a 98.5% green plant rate [3]. - The craftsmanship involves a 400-year-old technique using "golden yeast," with the base liquor aged in clay jars for natural maturation [3]. - Each product comes with a unique certification number and is crafted by a master of intangible cultural heritage, enhancing its exclusivity [3]. Group 3: Consumer Engagement and Future Plans - The event introduced the concept of "meeting friends over wine, enjoying health," establishing a unique high-end consumer service system [3]. - The company aims to provide a premium experience through a combination of product offerings, exclusive rights, and concierge services [3]. - Future plans include deepening the aged liquor strategy and continuously implementing the "comprehensive towards C" brand strategy to create more valuable products and experiences for consumers [3].

点评：舍得酒业国际化战略成效显著，海外布局覆盖40个国家及地区，免税店与零售终端数量稳步提 升，东南亚市场表现尤为突出。此举将优化公司收入结构，提升品牌全球影响力。白酒行业加速出海或 成趋势，相关企业或积极跟进。 NO.1 珍酒李渡：通过大珍联盟商权益支付计划，兑现"加盟送股票"承诺 9月10日晚间，珍酒李渡发布公告称，公司通过全资附属公司珍酒商贸采纳联盟商权益支付计划，旨在 激励合资格联盟商，促进公司长期可持续增长及发展。而这一支付计划，对应的正是大珍万商联盟项 目。据悉，支付股份来源于控股股东捐赠和二级市场购买。 公告显示，该权益支付计划不时授出的单位股份来源有两种方式——控股股东以无偿捐赠方式捐赠的股 份；信托受托人不时于二级市场购买的股份。拟捐赠或购买现有的股份总数初步设定合计不超过1.69亿 股，该限额可由董事会在适当考虑公司需求与市场状况后全权酌情决定予以调高。联盟商权益支付计划 自采纳之日起生效，有效期为五年，期限届满后不得根据联盟权益支付计划进一步授出。 点评：珍酒李渡推出联盟商权益支付计划，通过控股股东捐赠与二级市场购买股份激励联盟商，推动长 期可持续发展。此举有望优化渠道结构，增强厂商合作 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor has stabilized its channels after nearly a year of destocking, focusing on supporting small distributors and leveraging the T68 product to penetrate the mass liquor market [2][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2, Shede Liquor achieved a net profit of 97.17 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 139.5%, while revenue remained stable at 1.125 billion yuan [2]. - The company has successfully reduced inventory levels to a reasonable range after several quarters of destocking efforts, which is reflected in the improved financial results [3][4]. Group 2: Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on e-commerce and direct sales channels while lowering initial order requirements to attract new distributors [3]. - A new small and micro customer management team has been established to support small distributors, enhancing their confidence and service quality [3][4]. Group 3: Product Development - The launch of the T68 product has led to a 15.86% year-on-year increase in sales revenue from ordinary liquor [4]. - The new low-alcohol product "Shede Zizai" aligns with the trend towards lower alcohol consumption and diverse drinking scenarios, receiving positive market feedback [6]. Group 4: Market Strategy - The company is concentrating its resources on key markets in Shandong, Hebei, and Sichuan, aiming to enhance market share through refined operations [4]. - A strategic focus on regional markets is being implemented, with plans to strengthen presence in both established and emerging markets [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's stock price has shown significant growth in recent months, with a notable increase in trading volume and market capitalization, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 11, Shede Liquor's stock rose by 2.07%, reaching 68.06 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 8.02 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.57%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 226.48 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, Shede Liquor's stock price has increased by 3.90%, with a 3.47% rise over the last five trading days, 27.03% over the last 20 days, and 38.47% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, Shede Liquor reported operating revenue of 2.701 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 443 million CNY, down 24.98% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Shede Liquor has distributed a total of 2.29 billion CNY in dividends, with 1.353 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shede Liquor was 129,700, a decrease of 0.72% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 0.72% to 2,564 shares [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is the China Securities Index White Liquor Index A, holding 16.454 million shares, unchanged from the previous period [2].