Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's stock price has shown a positive trend, with a year-to-date increase of 4.72% and significant gains over various time frames, indicating strong market interest and performance [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shede Liquor reported a revenue of 2.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 443 million yuan, down 24.98% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 2.29 billion yuan, with 1.353 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shede Liquor was approximately 129,700, a decrease of 0.72% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 0.72% to 2,564 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable entities such as the China Securities Index White Wine Index A and the Wine ETF, with changes in their holdings reflecting market dynamics [3].

Core Viewpoint - The "Shede·Oriental Mediterranean" project, a 10 billion yuan investment by Shede Liquor Industry, aims to integrate liquor and tourism, addressing the cyclical fluctuations faced by traditional liquor brands [1][4][6]. Investment and Project Overview - The project is a collaboration between Shede Liquor, the government of Shehong City, and Club Med, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan, and is set to be completed by 2029 [1][4]. - The project includes various experiential segments such as "Ecological Shede," "Years of Shede," "Celebration of Shede," "Free Shede," and "Homecoming Shede," each offering unique experiences [6][8]. Industry Context - The liquor and tourism integration is becoming a significant transformation method for the liquor industry, with many companies exploring this model to enhance their value chain [8][11]. - Compared to mature wine tourism in regions like Bordeaux and Napa Valley, the Chinese liquor industry's integration is still in the exploratory phase [8][11]. Challenges and Strategic Insights - Key challenges include location limitations, operational capabilities, and investment return cycles, with many liquor companies lacking the necessary tourism operation skills [12][11]. - Shede's project benefits from its advantageous location between Chengdu and Chongqing, making it accessible for mass tourism [12]. - The integration of cultural elements into the tourism experience is crucial for the project's success, leveraging Shede's unique cultural brand identity [13][14].

Group 1 - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, prompting companies to reflect on how to appeal to the new generation of consumers [1] - Major liquor companies, including Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, are launching low or ultra-low alcohol products in response to changing consumer preferences [1] - The president of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, Song Shuyu, stated that the current low-alcohol trend cannot yet be considered a true trend, emphasizing the need for deeper understanding of young consumers' preferences [1] Group 2 - Luzhou Laojiao announced the successful development of a 28-degree liquor product, while Gujing Gongjiu launched a 26-degree product, and Wuliangye and Shede Liquor introduced 29-degree products [1] - The industry is entering an era characterized by rational attitudes, consumption, and behavior regarding drinking, necessitating new strategies for engagement with younger consumers [1] - The upcoming 23rd China International Wine Expo will shift focus from product display to consumer interaction and exploration of new consumption scenarios, including the introduction of trendy drinking culture [2]

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a slight decline of 0.13% on September 15, with Gujing Gongjiu leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.63% to 13005.77 [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shede Liquor saw an increase of 1.57%, closing at 67.19, with a trading volume of 125,000 shares and a transaction value of 834 million yuan [1] - Shanxi Fenjiu rose by 0.77% to 207.85, with a trading volume of 42,300 shares and a transaction value of 880 million yuan [1] - Guizhou Moutai slightly decreased by 0.06%, closing at 1515.10, with a trading volume of 25,800 shares and a transaction value of 3.902 billion yuan [1] - The largest decline was seen in Gujing Gongjiu, which fell by 1.48% to 168.08, with a trading volume of 31,000 shares and a transaction value of 523 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 835 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 462 million yuan [2] - The data indicates that speculative funds had a net inflow of 373 million yuan [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Shede Liquor had a net inflow of 25.62 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 23.01 million yuan [3] - Shanxi Fenjiu saw a net inflow of 8.02 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors contributing a net inflow of 25.37 million yuan [3] - Gujing Gongjiu experienced a net outflow of 800,000 yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 490,000 yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" investment rating to the company, with a target price of 83.54 CNY over the next six months, corresponding to a 44.03X valuation for 2025 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's operating performance shows marginal improvement, with a recovery in profitability despite a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025. The revenue for 2025H1 was 2.701 billion CNY, down 17.41% year-on-year, while the net profit was 443 million CNY, down 24.98% year-on-year [1]. - The sales of high-end liquor are under pressure, but the e-commerce channel has performed well, contributing to revenue growth. In 2025H1, liquor sales revenue was 2.418 billion CNY, a decrease of 19.0% year-on-year, while e-commerce sales grew by 23.8% in Q2 [2]. - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratios, leading to a significant recovery in profitability. The net profit margin for Q2 was 8.56%, an increase of 4.92 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced marketing and management expenses [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects revenue growth rates of -8.7%, 7.5%, and 10.4% for 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 82.8%, 15.9%, and 20.6% respectively [4][10]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 was 60.60%, slightly down by 0.54 percentage points year-on-year, indicating competitive pressure in the industry [3]. - The company had a total market capitalization of 22.012 billion CNY as of September 12, 2025, with a share price of 66.15 CNY [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector has seen companies initiate performance clearing in Q2, with adjustments in channels and product structures. The performance aligns with market expectations, and Q3 shows signs of marginal recovery in sales [6][58] - The prepared food sector is expected to benefit from the upcoming public consultation on food safety standards, which will enhance industry self-regulation and favor leading brands [7][59] - The new consumption sector is supported by initiatives from platforms like Gaode, which aims to boost offline dining through substantial subsidies [8][60] Summary by Sections Industry News - Gaode will distribute over 1 billion yuan in subsidies to encourage in-store consumption [19] - The draft of the national food safety standard for prepared dishes has passed review [19] - Alcohol prices have decreased by 2.0% year-on-year from January to August [19] Investment Insights - Liquor Sector: Companies like Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for their high dividend yields and cyclical advantages [6][58] - Prepared Food Sector: The new food safety standards are expected to clarify the definition and scope of prepared dishes, benefiting leading brands like Anjifood and Qianwei Central Kitchen [7][59] - New Consumption Sector: The introduction of Gaode's "Street Ranking" and support plans is anticipated to increase foot traffic in restaurants [8][60] Key Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report highlights key companies in the liquor sector, including Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, and Wuliangye, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [11][12] - In the prepared food sector, companies like Anjifood and Longda Meishi are noted for their potential growth due to industry standards [7][59]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, prompting major companies to reflect on how to appeal to the new generation of consumers, leading to the introduction of lower-alcohol products [1][3]. Industry Trends - Major liquor companies, including Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao, have launched low or ultra-low alcohol products in response to changing consumer preferences [1]. - The industry is currently in a "three rationality" era, characterized by rational attitudes towards drinking, rational consumption, and rational drinking behavior [3]. Consumer Insights - The industry needs to better understand the preferences and behaviors of younger consumers, as current research on their drinking habits is lacking [3]. - Young consumers are not averse to alcohol but are disinterested in traditional drinking culture [3]. Event Adjustments - The upcoming 23rd China International Wine Expo will shift its focus from product display to consumer interaction and exploration of new consumption scenarios, including the introduction of trendy drinking culture elements [3].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's stock price has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.03%, reflecting a total market capitalization of 22.458 billion yuan, while the company faces a decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Shede Liquor reported a revenue of 2.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 443 million yuan, down 24.98% year-on-year [2]. - The company's stock price has increased by 3.03% year-to-date, with a 23.97% increase over the past 20 days and a 37.79% increase over the past 60 days [1]. Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders as of June 30, 2025, is 129,700, a decrease of 0.72% from the previous period, with an average of 2,564 circulating shares per person, which is an increase of 0.72% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include major funds such as the China Securities White Wine Index A and the Wine ETF, with notable changes in their holdings [3]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Shede Liquor has distributed a total of 2.29 billion yuan in dividends, with 1.353 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Market Activity - On September 15, 2023, Shede Liquor's stock traded at 67.49 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 5.09 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.31% [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 15.6368 million yuan, with significant buying and selling activity from large orders [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the liquor sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant month-on-month sales growth for Moutai in August, with terminal sales in various regions increasing by 15%-35%. It suggests that while there may be pressure on sales during the upcoming double festival, there is potential for improvement, presenting a configuration opportunity for the sector [1][5]. - The consumer goods sector continues to embrace new consumption trends, with strong performance in soft drinks, beer, and condiments, while the liquor sector shows signs of pressure with noticeable deceleration in performance [1][2]. - Recommendations include focusing on leading brands in the liquor sector, such as Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, while also highlighting consumer goods companies like Weidong, Wanchen Group, and Dongpeng Beverage [1][2][13]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - Moutai's sales in August showed significant month-on-month growth, with terminal sales increasing by 15%-35% across multiple regions. The report anticipates pressure on sales during the double festival but expects a month-on-month improvement, indicating potential configuration opportunities [1][5]. - The report recommends prioritizing leading brands in the liquor sector, specifically Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, while also suggesting brands with strong market share and lower valuations such as Zhenjiu Lidu and Luzhou Laojiao [1][13]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is advised to continue capitalizing on new consumption trends. Despite recent adjustments in the new consumption sector due to capital rotation and high valuation pressures, the long-term trend remains positive with clear opportunities for sustainable investment [2][17]. - Recommended stocks include Wanchen Group, New Dairy, Weidong, and Qingdao Beer, among others, while also highlighting potential stocks like Jindaiwei and Tea Baidao [2][17]. Market Performance - From September 8 to September 12, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.38%, with the meat products sector (+2.79%) and liquor sector (+1.73%) leading the gains, while beer (-0.98%) and other liquor categories (-0.83%) experienced declines [2][22]. - The report notes that the liquor sector's valuation has adjusted, with the liquor sector currently at 19.82 times earnings, indicating a potential for value investment [27].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing cyclical opportunities due to supply and demand clearing, with performance advantages evident in beverages, snacks, and raw materials. The financials of the liquor sector are improving, particularly for Moutai [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests increasing holdings in growth stocks within beverages, snacks, and food sectors, highlighting the performance advantages. It recommends overweight positions in elastic liquor stocks such as Hong Kong-listed Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede Liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Jiu Gui Jiu. For stable mid-term holdings, it suggests Wuliangye, Guizhou Moutai, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jianshiyuan, and Guqingongjiu. In the beverage sector, it recommends increasing positions in leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Chengde Lulou, as well as Hong Kong-listed Nongfu Spring, Master Kong Holdings, and China Resources Beverage. For snacks and food raw materials, it suggests increasing holdings in Bailong Chuangyuan, Yanjinpuzi, Three Squirrels, and Ximai Foods, along with Hong Kong-listed Weilong Delicious. In the beer segment, it recommends increasing positions in Tsingtao Brewery, Zhujiang Brewery, and Bai Run Shares, as well as Hong Kong-listed China Resources Beer. For condiments and livestock, it suggests increasing holdings in Yili Group, New Dairy, Youran Livestock, Modern Farming, Baoli Foods, and Haitian Flavoring [8][9] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is seeing a clearing of financials, with Moutai showing signs of improved sales. In Q2 2025, high-end, sub-high-end, and regional liquor revenues grew by 3%, declined by 5%, and decreased by 27% year-on-year, respectively. Net profits for these categories also showed a similar trend. The consumption environment is suppressing industry demand, leading to accelerated inventory reduction. Moutai's official data indicates a recovery in terminal sales as traditional festivals approach, with significant month-on-month growth observed since late August. The company emphasizes sustainable high-quality development, which may alleviate supply-demand conflicts and support pricing [9][10] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is characterized by structural growth, with beverages performing well, stable beer sales, and significant differentiation in snacks. The leading companies in condiments are showing advantages, while dairy products are experiencing marginal improvements. The report suggests that new consumer leaders in food additives, health products, beverages, and snacks have potential for future growth, driven by innovation and management strategies that could widen the gap with competitors [11]