Core Insights - Tuo Pai has partnered with Meituan Shanguo to enhance its marketing strategy for the upcoming double festival, focusing on an O2O (online-to-offline) marketing loop that combines online exposure and offline consumption experiences [1][2][3] Group 1: Marketing Strategy - The collaboration aims to provide consumers with an "average 30 minutes delivery" experience, aligning with Tuo Pai's main IP activities to boost brand presence and market penetration [2][3] - Tuo Pai is implementing a dual-channel strategy by integrating online and offline resources, with a focus on five major cities to enhance sales conversion during the double festival [3][4] - The marketing campaign includes a special promotion in selected restaurants, targeting young consumers and enhancing brand engagement through immersive experiences [4][6] Group 2: Consumer Trends - The white liquor industry is witnessing a shift from "planned stockpiling" to "immediate consumption," with instant retail reshaping consumer behavior [3][6] - According to Guoxin Securities, the instant retail market for alcoholic beverages is projected to reach a scale of 600-900 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual growth rate of 10%-17% [3] Group 3: Brand Engagement - The upgraded "Jiu Zhuo Ge Shen" IP focuses on creating emotional connections with consumers through music and social interactions, enhancing brand recall and purchase intent [7][10] - Tuo Pai's marketing efforts are designed to resonate with younger demographics and penetrate lower-tier markets, leveraging high interactivity and social attributes [7][12] Group 4: E-commerce Performance - Tuo Pai's parent company, Shede Liquor, has also seen significant growth in e-commerce, with a reported sales increase of 31.68% year-on-year in the first half of the year [10][12] - The strategic partnership with JD.com and the launch of a new low-alcohol product have contributed to a strong market response, indicating a successful expansion into e-commerce channels [10][12]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a pullback, with the Food ETF (515710) showing a significant decline of 1.43% at the close, and individual stocks like Dongpeng Beverage and Shede Liquor dropping over 3% [1][3] - Despite the recent downturn, the Food ETF has seen net inflows of 69.18 million yuan over the last five trading days, indicating continued investor interest [3][4] - The white liquor sector is under demand pressure, but there are signs of improvement in sales performance as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, suggesting a potential recovery in the market [3][5] Group 2 - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a low point, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.74, which is in the 7.06% percentile of the last decade, indicating a good time for long-term investment [4][5] - The government’s advocacy for reducing competition is expected to stabilize prices and support high-quality development, which may lead to a recovery in the liquor sector [5][6] - The white liquor sector is entering a peak season, with signs of improved sales and inventory reduction, suggesting that the bottoming out of the sector may present investment opportunities [6][7]

Market Overview - On September 22, the liquor sector declined by 1.19% compared to the previous trading day, with *ST Rock leading the decline [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.58, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97, up 0.67% [1] Individual Stock Performance - The following table summarizes the closing prices, percentage changes, trading volumes, and transaction amounts for key liquor stocks: - *ST Rock: Closed at 6.06, down 3.50%, with a trading volume of 60,500 and a transaction amount of 37.40 million [1] - Shede Liquor: Closed at 63.25, down 3.44%, with a trading volume of 91,500 and a transaction amount of 583 million [1] - Zhi Si Cha: Closed at 66.98, down 3.32%, with a trading volume of 121,700 and a transaction amount of 819 million [1] - Jin Shi Yuan: Closed at 40.10, down 2.81%, with a trading volume of 84,000 and a transaction amount of 340 million [1] - Si Xi Fen Jiu: Closed at 196.00, down 2.00%, with a trading volume of 62,700 and a transaction amount of 1.23 billion [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The liquor sector experienced a net outflow of 1.313 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 982 million [1] - The following table details the fund flow for specific liquor stocks: - Tian You De Jiu: Institutional net inflow of 1.6124 million, retail net outflow of 828,900 [2] - Yang He Co.: Institutional net inflow of 291,500, retail net outflow of 8.5975 million [2] - Yi Li Te: Institutional net outflow of 3.4372 million, retail net inflow of 3.1047 million [2] - *ST Rock: Institutional net outflow of 4.3305 million, retail net inflow of 5.0205 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is experiencing a mixed performance as it enters the peak season, with demand showing improvement on a month-over-month basis but still facing a 10-20% shortfall year-over-year [1] Industry Summary - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.07% to 3822.59 points, while the liquor sector closed at 2294.54 points, down 1.01% [1] - A total of 19 liquor stocks declined, with Shede Liquor leading the drop at 3.08% [1] - Major liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe Brewery saw varying stock price changes, with Kweichow Moutai closing at 1457.00 CNY per share, down 0.75% [1][1][1] Company Insights - According to a report from China Merchants Securities, the liquor industry is entering a peak season with overall feedback being tepid [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on supply-side changes at the enterprise level during this adjustment period, as leading companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are sending positive signals [1] - As the peak season unfolds, the direction of industry clearing will become clearer, and the bottom of the market will become increasingly evident [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Baijiu Industry Industry Overview - The overall sales volume in the baijiu industry has declined, with distributors expecting a 20%-30% drop in sales during the upcoming double festival period. Sales volume decreased by 40%-50% in July and August [1][2] - High-end baijiu wholesale prices are weak, with Feitian Moutai priced around 1,780 RMB. Demand for baijiu in banquet scenarios remains stable, while mid-range products perform more consistently [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: The baijiu industry is facing significant sales pressure, with actual sales declines exceeding previous market expectations. Most regions, except for Henan, are experiencing sales drops greater than anticipated [2] - **Inventory Levels**: From June to August, the average sales volume decreased by 50%, leading to a slight increase in inventory levels compared to last year. Most distributors have higher inventory levels than the same period last year [3] - **Price Trends**: High-end baijiu products like Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye are experiencing weak wholesale prices. Feitian Moutai's price is expected to fluctuate between 1,700 and 1,800 RMB during the double festival period [4][8] - **Company Performance Adjustments**: Guizhou Moutai has lowered its annual growth target but maintains a steady collection rate compared to last year. Wuliangye is also expected to adjust its growth target due to market conditions [6][9] Company-Specific Insights - **Guizhou Moutai**: The company is increasing promotional activities for its series of products and expects a slight downward adjustment in annual growth targets, which may benefit investors by releasing risks [8] - **Wuliangye**: The company is shifting its focus from absolute growth to long-term competitiveness, with a return rate of approximately 60%-70% [9][10] - **Luzhou Laojiao**: The company is implementing a price stabilization strategy and focusing on expanding its terminal market through targeted promotions [11] - **Shanxi Fenjiu**: The company is facing significant sales declines but is maintaining a stable price point due to good relationships with distributors [13] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with potential for policy-driven growth and those that can adapt to market changes, such as Jiu Gui, She De, and Shui Jing Fang. Mid-range products like Gu Qing Gong and Ying Jia Gong are also highlighted for their recovery potential [5][7] - The overall sentiment is that the baijiu industry is currently at a low point, but there are opportunities for recovery and growth in specific segments and companies [27] Additional Considerations - The impact of external factors, such as government inspections and coal supply pressures, has affected consumption patterns in various regions [12][14] - The performance of next-tier baijiu products is weaker compared to high-end and mid-range products, indicating a need for careful monitoring of new product launches [21] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call regarding the baijiu industry, highlighting both challenges and potential investment opportunities.

Group 1 - Institutional investors have shown interest in 123 stocks this week, with 22 stocks receiving target prices [1] - XJ Electric (603416) received a "Buy Over Market" rating from Guosen Securities, with a target price range of 75.43 to 82.98 CNY, while the latest closing price was 63.49 CNY [1] - Kailaiying (002821) was rated "Recommended" by Huachuang Securities, with a target price of 136.15 CNY, and the latest closing price was 110.70 CNY [1] Group 2 - Youyou Green Energy (301590) received a "Buy" rating from Tianfeng Securities, with a target price of 285.70 CNY, and the latest closing price was 200.00 CNY [1] - Shede Liquor (600702), Fudan Microelectronics, and China Satellite (600118) also received initial attention from institutions this week [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance pressure in the liquor industry, particularly in the first half of 2025, with a focus on the upcoming festive season as a potential opportunity for investment [1][2][3] Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the liquor industry experienced a revenue decline of 0.8% year-on-year, totaling 241.42 billion yuan, with the second quarter seeing a more significant drop of 4.9% to 88.06 billion yuan due to policy impacts [9][10] - High-end liquor maintained growth with a revenue increase of 6.2% in the first half and 3.4% in the second quarter, while mid-tier and regional brands faced substantial declines, with some experiencing drops as severe as 31.1% [10][12] - The overall net profit for the liquor industry decreased by 1.18% in the first half and 7.5% in the second quarter, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [20][28] Short-term Strategy - The report suggests focusing on the upcoming festive season, with expectations of improved sales performance despite ongoing pressures [2][3] - It emphasizes the need for liquor companies to balance market share and structural upgrades while managing pricing and sales dynamics [2][3] Long-term Outlook - The liquor index shows a strong correlation with the Producer Price Index (PPI), with a potential turning point noted in August 2025, which could signal a recovery phase for the industry [2][3] - The report indicates that the liquor sector possesses high return on equity (ROE) and dividend characteristics, with valuations currently positioned in the mid-to-lower range of the industry [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brands that are expected to perform well during the festive season, including high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as mid-tier brands like Zhenjiu Lidong and Luzhou Laojiao [3][4] - It suggests that the current market conditions may present a buying opportunity as the industry approaches a potential bottom in performance expectations [3][4]

Core Insights - The liquor market is experiencing increased activity as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day approach, with a notable acceleration in the sales of white liquor, although prices are declining [1][21] - High-end liquor products are seeing a price drop, while low-end products remain stable, prompting distributors to launch various promotional activities to clear inventory [1][21] Price Trends - In Guangzhou, 15 products have seen a decline in retail prices, including high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, with price reductions ranging from several to dozens of yuan [2][3] - Moutai's average price is approximately 2065 yuan, down about 40 yuan from the previous period, while Wuliangye's price decreased by 11 yuan to around 910 yuan [2][3] - In Shenzhen, Moutai's average retail price is 2102.91 yuan, with significant price variations between online and offline channels [9][11] Sales Dynamics - Distributors report a noticeable shrinkage in demand compared to last year, leading to aggressive pricing strategies to stimulate sales [5][21] - High-end products are experiencing increased sales, while low-alcohol products are gaining popularity, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [21] Regional Insights - In Shenzhen, the price fluctuations have stabilized as demand increases, with expectations of a 20% rise in high-end product sales in September [10][21] - In Dongguan, the market shows a downward trend in mid-to-high-end product prices, with 14 out of 18 products experiencing price drops [17][19] Promotional Strategies - Liquor distributors are implementing various promotional strategies, such as discounts and bundled offers, to boost sales ahead of the festive season [3][21] - Some stores are offering promotions like "buy five boxes, get one free" to increase sales volume, contributing to the overall price decline [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - The "Taozui 8" strategic product launch and innovation platform initiation marks a comprehensive upgrade of the Taozui brand strategy by Shede Liquor, emphasizing a new operational model and collaboration with partners [1][3][4]. Group 1: Strategic Developments - The "Taozui 8" product is positioned as a long-term flagship item targeting the banquet market, priced between 100-200 yuan, featuring a rich and smooth taste profile [8]. - The new operational strategy shifts from a traditional "manufacturer-led, distributor-operated" model to a "manufacturer-led, platform self-operated" model, promoting transformation from product distributors to brand co-builders [3][4]. - The launch event was attended by key government officials and company leaders, highlighting the importance of local government support for the development of Shede Liquor [2]. Group 2: Brand and Market Positioning - Shede Liquor aims to enhance brand internationalization and production capacity, contributing to the recognition of Shehong as a top county in China [2]. - The "Taozui" brand will leverage platform innovation to optimize product structure and business models, fostering long-term development and mutual benefits with quality distributors [5][6]. - The design of "Taozui 8" reflects a blend of traditional and modern aesthetics, appealing to consumers' dual pursuit of quality liquor and artistic beauty [8]. Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - The event included the signing of strategic cooperation agreements with key regional partners, establishing a nationwide channel network [8]. - The innovation platform's co-founders were officially recognized, indicating a collaborative approach to brand development and market expansion [7].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025-2026 Sichuan Urban Football League (referred to as "Chuan Super") is set to kick off on September 20, 2025, with significant engagement from local brands, particularly Shede Liquor, which aims to leverage the event for brand exposure and consumer interaction [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The opening match tickets sold out within seconds, and related topics on Douyin have garnered over 230 million views, indicating a strong public interest in the event [1]. - The league will feature 28 rounds and a total of 162 matches, with Shede Liquor's brand prominently displayed throughout the season [2]. Group 2: Brand Engagement Strategy - Shede Liquor is not just a sponsor but aims to become a co-builder of the event atmosphere and a promoter of regional football culture [6]. - The brand will launch a series of interactive activities, including "Open Bottle of Tuo Pai to Watch Chuan Super," where fans can receive free samples and participate in various promotions at partner venues [4][6]. Group 3: Local Market Focus - By sponsoring the local team "Suining Shede Gan," Shede Liquor is deepening its connection with the local market and enhancing brand visibility through continuous exposure during training and matches [7][10]. - The branding strategy aligns with the local spirit of "daring to think and act," which resonates with the community and enhances the cultural significance of the brand [9][11]. Group 4: Marketing Impact - The partnership with the Chuan Super league is part of Shede Liquor's broader strategy to enhance consumer engagement and drive sales through sports marketing [12]. - The initiative aims to transform the excitement of the league into consumer enthusiasm, thereby boosting brand recognition and sales in the local market [12].