24 February 2026 | 12:16AM HKT Equity Research China Consumer Staples: LNY expert calls: Spirits: Moutai/Wuliangye pivoting to recovery path; Dairy saw disciplined pricing yet unexciting On Feb 23, we hosted an expert call with a large spirits and F&B distributor located in Hunan province. Key highlights: 1) Spirits: Feitian Moutai volume/pricing topped expectations during the CNY period in the expert's region, with Feitian Moutai spirits retail sales volume up >20% yoy offsetting shipment control on non-st ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|食品饮料 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 春节走访：五省白酒动销跟踪反馈 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-24 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 02/25 05/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 02/26 食品饮料 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]符蓉 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | | SFC CE No. BWC944 | | | 021-38003552 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 郝宇新 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120010 | | | SFC CE No. BVZ687 | | | 021-38003553 | | | haoyuxin@gf.com.cn | | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Chinese liquor market, particularly in Chengdu, is showing signs of recovery as the Spring Festival approaches, with increased sales velocity for major brands like Guojiao and Wuliangye [6][8]. - The seasoning market is also experiencing improved sales, with brands like Qianhe and Haitian gaining market share, and promotional activities increasing in supermarkets [11][12]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector in 2026, with recommendations for key stocks including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai among others [2][4]. Summary by Sections Chengdu Liquor Market Tracking - Sales velocity for Wuliangye and Guojiao has accelerated as the Spring Festival approaches, with Wuliangye's current batch price at 790 CNY per bottle and Guojiao at 850 CNY per bottle [7][9]. - Feedback from distributors indicates that inventory levels are healthy, with a focus on maintaining good stock levels to avoid excess [8][9]. Chengdu Seasoning Market Tracking - Soy sauce sales have improved year-on-year, with Qianhe and Haitian leading in market share, and promotional activities in supermarkets have increased significantly [11][12]. - The overall health of inventory levels in the seasoning market is noted, with major brands maintaining shorter inventory ages, indicating strong sales performance [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, the report recommends stocks such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, anticipating a new growth cycle starting in 2026 [2][4]. - In the consumer goods sector, companies like Anjuke Foods and Yanjing Beer are highlighted as having potential for outperforming the market due to new products and channels [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The overall sales of liquor during the Spring Festival period are expected to decline by 8%, which is better than previous pessimistic forecasts, with varying performance across different consumption categories [1]. Group 1: Consumption Environment - The Spring Festival sales have fully commenced, with an overall expected decline of 8% in liquor sales during this period [1]. - Gift consumption (mass premium) is expected to see slight growth, while business consumption is projected to decline by 20% [1]. - Residential consumption is expected to remain flat with slight growth, and government consumption is anticipated to drop by 90% [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - **Kweichow Moutai**: The return of funds for the March flying Moutai is not fully completed, with zero inventory and low channel stocking willingness, focusing more on turnover rates. The post-holiday price is expected to stabilize at 1550 yuan [1]. - **Wuliangye**: Current shipments are up by 30% year-on-year, with sales performance showing a 10% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - **Luzhou Laojiao**: The current return progress for Guojiao 1573 is at 35%, with approximately three months of inventory. However, both shipment and sales are down by over 30% and 25% respectively, despite stable pricing [1]. - **Honghua Lang**: Currently, sales are up by 9% year-on-year [2]. - **Jian Nan Chun**: Sales are flat year-on-year [2]. - **Shede and Shui Jing Fang**: Both brands have seen slight declines despite low base comparisons [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the poor performance of liquor and consumer goods stocks, with significant declines in companies like Lianhua Holdings and Gujing Gongjiu, impacting the overall sector [1] - The wholesale price of Moutai liquor has increased, with the 2026 original box price rising by 25 yuan to 1715 yuan per bottle, while the 2025 original box price also saw a similar increase [2][3] - The food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, suggesting a potential good entry point for investments, with the food and beverage ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.58 times, which is in the 9.2% percentile of the last decade [3] Group 2 - Analysts expect improvements in supply and demand relationships across various sub-sectors in 2026, with a clearer recovery in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicating a potential bottoming out for traditional consumption sectors [3] - The food and beverage sector is seen as a crucial part of domestic demand, with government policies aimed at boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand expected to positively impact the sector [3] - The food and beverage ETF is heavily weighted towards leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to these companies, including major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [3]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant pullback on February 10, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) declining by 1.17% by the end of the trading day, primarily driven by substantial losses in the liquor segment, particularly among major brands like Guizhou Moutai and others [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF opened weakly and showed low-level fluctuations throughout the day, closing down 1.17% [1]. - Major liquor stocks such as Jiu Gui Jiu fell by 3.35%, while Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shede Liquor dropped over 2%, with Guizhou Moutai and Yanghe Co. also declining more than 1% [1][2]. Group 2: Upcoming Product Launch - The official announcement from "i Moutai" indicated that the 53-degree 500ml Guizhou Moutai liquor (Bingwu Year) will be available for sale from February 10 to February 16, with limited quantities [2][3]. - The product launch is strategically timed to capture gift-giving and collection demands during the Spring Festival, which is expected to boost direct sales and gross margins for Moutai [3]. Group 3: Valuation Insights - Analysts noted that the food and beverage sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, making it an attractive time for investment [3]. - As of February 9, the price-to-earnings ratio for the Huabao ETF's underlying index was 20.85, placing it in the 11.55% percentile of the last decade, indicating a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Dongfang Securities suggested that the liquor channel may be at a turning point, with expectations of performance improvement in the upcoming quarterly reports, marking a potential investment window for the sector [4]. - Galaxy Securities projected that supply-demand dynamics across various sub-sectors will improve by 2026, with traditional consumption benefiting from a recovery in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF is positioned to track the sub-sector index, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to leading high-end and mid-range liquor brands, while the remaining 40% includes leaders in beverages, dairy, and condiments [5]. - Investors can also consider the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF linked funds for exposure to core assets in the food and beverage sector [5].

Group 1 - The liquor index experienced a decline of 2.02% during the trading session on February 10 [2] - Huangtai Liquor Company saw a drop of over 6% in its stock price [2] - Other companies such as Jinhui Liquor, Jiugui Liquor, Shede Liquor, and Luzhou Laojiao all reported declines exceeding 2% [2]

[Table_Title] 食品饮料行业 如何看白酒板块上涨持续性？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-08 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|食品饮料 [分析师： Table_Author]符蓉 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/25 11/25 02/26 食品饮料 沪深300 | SAC 执证号：S0260523120002 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | SFC CE No. BWC944 | 021-38003552 | | | furong@gf.com.cn | 分析师： | 周源 | | SAC 执证号：S0260525040003 | fzzhouyuan@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，周源并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | [相关研究： Table_DocReport] | 食品饮料行业:金星啤酒"中式 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [5] Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with the "opening red" sales expected to remain under pressure year-on-year, while brand differentiation is evident. Positive feedback from high-end liquor is significantly boosting market confidence, and a shift in style and improved expectations may catalyze liquor stock prices [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The liquor market is experiencing a deep adjustment, with sales and revenue expected to decline throughout the year. However, there are signs of marginal improvement starting from Q4 2025, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [6] High-End Liquor Performance - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, with Moutai and Wuliangye implementing strategies to stabilize prices and enhance channel profits. Moutai's sales performance has improved, with significant user engagement and order volume [6][7] Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as other brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu, which are expected to clear inventory [6][7] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its current cycle, with potential catalysts for stock prices including improvements in sales, price increases, and inventory reduction. Positive signals from policy changes could further enhance market sentiment [6][7]