公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年04月28日 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:57.01元 舍得酒业(600702.SH) 行情走势图 1Q25持续调整，期待后续改善 相关研究报告 【平安证券】舍得酒业（600702.SH）*年报点评*24 年持续调整，股权激励助力改善*推荐20250331 【平安证券】舍得酒业（600702.SH）*季报点评*释 放压力，轻装上阵*推荐20241029 证券分析师 事项： 舍得酒业发布2025年1季报，1Q25实现营业收入15.8亿元，同比下滑25.1%； 归母净利3.5亿元，同比下滑37.1%。 平安观点： 公 司 季 报 点 评 张晋溢 投资咨询资格编号 研 究 报 告 S1060521030001 ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522030001 WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523100001 wangxingyun937@pingan.com.cn | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.4% in Q1 2025, although it decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is maintaining active expense investments during the peak season to promote sales, with a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year [3] - A stock incentive plan was announced, granting up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4] - Revenue and profit are expected to gradually improve as the company enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2] - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow, which increased by 106.8% year-on-year to 224 million yuan [3] Market and Channel Analysis - The company has optimized its channel structure, with a total of 2,621 distributors as of the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 42 from the end of 2024 [2] - E-commerce channel revenue increased by 36.7% year-on-year to 205 million yuan, reflecting a trend towards online sales in the liquor market [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] - The stock incentive plan aims to motivate employees with performance targets that require significant revenue and profit growth over the next three years [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][19]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.4% in Q1 2025, although it decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is maintaining active expenditure during the peak season to promote sales, with a sales expense ratio increasing by 3.03 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - A stock incentive plan was announced, granting up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4]. - The company expects a turning point in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, and net profits of 422 million yuan, an increase of 21.9% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market and Channel Analysis - The company’s provincial revenue was 494 million yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year, while out-of-province revenue was 949 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year [2]. - The e-commerce channel saw revenue of 205 million yuan, an increase of 36.7% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in online sales [2]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting revenues of 5.08 billion yuan in 2025, 5.375 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.756 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 422 million yuan, 451 million yuan, and 508 million yuan [5][6]. - The stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 45.0 for 2025 and 42.1 for 2026, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's Q1 2025 report shows significant revenue and profit growth, indicating a successful strategy amidst industry adjustments [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 1.576 billion, a 75.68% increase quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 346 million, surpassing the total net profit of 345.8 million for the entire year of 2024 [1] - Gross margin improved to 69.36%, and net cash flow from operating activities increased by 106.76% to 224.2 million [2] - Operating costs and management expenses decreased by 11.25% and 25.24% respectively, enhancing profit margins [2] Market Strategy - The company implemented a "stable price, control inventory, strong sales" strategy, leading to a 41 million increase in contract liabilities, reflecting restored channel confidence [2] - E-commerce sales grew to 205 million, a 36.71% year-on-year increase, indicating successful channel optimization [2] Product Development - Focus on core products led to Q1 revenue of 1.234 billion from mid-to-high-end liquor and 208 million from ordinary liquor, accounting for 85.58% and 14.42% of total revenue respectively [3] - The company aims to strengthen its position in the 400 yuan price range and expand into rural markets [3] Long-term Growth and Innovation - R&D expenses surged from 8.39 million to 95.33 million from 2019 to 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 62.59% [5] - The company holds 45 invention patents and has developed over 144 new products, enhancing its technological capabilities [5] - Brand value for "Shede" reached 100.655 billion and "Tuopai" 72.196 billion, totaling 172.851 billion, a 51.48% increase since 2020 [6] Industry Outlook - The industry is viewed as undergoing a short-term adjustment, with companies demonstrating resilience and strategic focus expected to thrive [2][4]

Core Insights - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.14% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 346 million yuan, down 37.10% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 343 million yuan, also down 37.14% [1] - The operating cash flow net amount was 224 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 106.76% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - Basic earnings per share were 1.0582 yuan, and the weighted average return on equity was 4.80%, a decrease of 2.21 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The return on invested capital was 4.05%, down 2.71 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's current ratio was 1.95, while the quick ratio was 0.59 at the end of the first quarter [1] Cash Flow and Investments - The net cash flow from operating activities was 224 million yuan, up 106.76% year-on-year [1] - Cash flow from financing activities increased by 9.7289 million yuan to 135 million yuan year-on-year [1] - Cash flow from investing activities was -362 million yuan, compared to 264 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Asset and Liability Changes - Fixed assets decreased by 1.57% compared to the end of the previous year, while construction in progress increased by 14.16% [1] - Accounts receivable financing increased by 124.51% compared to the end of the previous year, and intangible assets rose by 11.47% [1] - Significant changes in liabilities included a 12.7% decrease in notes payable and accounts payable, a 45.84% increase in long-term borrowings, and an 88.32% increase in taxes payable [1] Shareholder Changes - Among the top ten circulating shareholders at the end of the first quarter, a new shareholder, Penghua CSI Wine Index Securities Investment Fund (LOF), replaced the previous year-end shareholder, the National Social Security Fund 117 Portfolio [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the market and operational adjustments needed to improve performance [1][2]. Revenue Analysis - The company achieved revenue of 1.58 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1% [1]. - Revenue breakdown by product shows mid-to-high-end and regular liquor generating 1.23 billion and 0.21 billion yuan respectively, with declines of 28.5% and 12.6% year-on-year [2]. - Regional revenue analysis indicates that domestic, external, and e-commerce channels generated 0.49 billion, 0.95 billion, and 0.20 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -9.0%, -33.2%, and +36.7% [2]. - E-commerce now accounts for approximately 14% of total revenue, reflecting a breakthrough in this channel [2]. Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.35 billion yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 4.8 percentage points to 69.4%, while the net profit margin fell by 4.2 percentage points to 22.0% [2]. - Sales expenses increased by 3.0 percentage points, and the balance of contract liabilities rose to 0.21 billion yuan, indicating a need for careful cash flow management [2]. Future Outlook - The company has set ambitious targets for 2025, aiming for revenue growth of no less than 20% or net profit growth of at least 164% [3]. - The company is focusing on core brands and implementing a flatter organizational structure to enhance operational efficiency [3]. - Profitability is expected to gradually recover, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 showing significant growth of 164%, 25.5%, and 23.8% respectively [4]. Valuation and Investment Rating - The company’s estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 2.74, 3.44, and 4.26 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20.8, 16.6, and 13.4 times [4]. - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" based on the anticipated recovery in profitability and revenue growth [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.58 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue structure shows that high-end and regular liquor generated 1.23 billion yuan and 210 million yuan respectively in Q1 2025, with year-on-year declines of 28.5% and 12.6% [3]. - The company is focusing on improving its operational efficiency through a flat organizational structure and targeted assessments [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 4.7%, with net profit increasing by 164% to 913 million yuan [5][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.74 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.8, 16.6, and 13.4 for the years 2025 to 2027 [5][10]. Financial Metrics - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 22.0%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 69.4% [3]. - The balance of contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2025 was 210 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40 million yuan [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has added 215 new distributors while 257 exited, resulting in a net decrease of 42 distributors, leaving a total of 2,621 at the end of Q1 2025 [3]. - The company’s strategic focus includes enhancing its e-commerce channel, which saw a revenue increase of 36.7% year-on-year, contributing approximately 14% to total revenue [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, indicating challenges in the market while focusing on brand optimization and market expansion strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.14% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor was 1.234 billion yuan and 208 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -28.46% and -12.59% [1]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is optimizing its product structure, aiming to establish the Tuo Pai brand as the leading brand in the high-end light bottle segment of strong aroma liquor - The revenue from ordinary liquor increased its proportion to 14.42%, up by 2.33 percentage points [1]. - The company is focusing on consolidating its position in the 400 yuan price range while accelerating its market expansion in rural areas [1]. Sales Channels and Market Development - In Q1 2025, wholesale and e-commerce sales generated revenues of 1.237 billion yuan and 205 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -31.77% and +36.71%, respectively - The company is enhancing its internet marketing channels and aims to make its brand a favorite among consumers in the online space [2]. - The total number of distributors was 2,621, with 215 new and 257 exiting distributors, resulting in a net decrease of 42 distributors compared to the end of 2024 [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 69.36% and 21.96%, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.79 and 4.18 percentage points, respectively - The operating expense ratio was 28.63%, an increase of 3.16 percentage points year-on-year, driven by higher sales and marketing investments [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to a long-term strategy focusing on the old liquor market, multi-brand development, youth engagement, and international expansion - It aims to strengthen its brand matrix through a dual-brand strategy of "Shede + Tuo Pai" and enhance its presence in key cities and new regions [3]. - The company has introduced an equity incentive plan to boost team cohesion and performance, signaling management's confidence in future growth [3]. Revenue Forecast - The company expects to achieve revenues of 6.430 billion yuan, 7.285 billion yuan, and 8.310 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.04%, 13.28%, and 14.08%, respectively - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 916 million yuan, 1.148 billion yuan, and 1.421 billion yuan, with growth rates of 165.04%, 25.28%, and 23.72% [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced its first quarter financial results for 2025, including details on share repurchase and changes in distributor numbers, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value and operational adjustments in response to market conditions [10][12][14]. Financial Data Summary - The first quarter financial report is unaudited, with key financial data and indicators presented in RMB [9]. - The company has completed a share repurchase of 1,671,994 shares, representing 0.50% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately RMB 100 million [6][14]. Share Repurchase Details - The share repurchase plan was approved on October 28, 2024, with a budget between RMB 100 million and RMB 200 million, and a maximum repurchase price of RMB 91.00 per share [12][14]. - The actual repurchase occurred at a maximum price of RMB 81.23, a minimum of RMB 52.41, and an average price of RMB 59.83 [14]. Distributor Changes - During the reporting period, the company added 215 new distributors while 257 exited, resulting in a total of 2,621 distributors at the end of the quarter, a decrease of 42 from the previous year [11]. Incentive Plans - The company has initiated a restricted stock incentive plan, with details disclosed in the relevant announcements [7]. Legal and Compliance Assurance - The board of directors and senior management have guaranteed the accuracy and completeness of the financial report, assuming legal responsibility for any misrepresentation [2][10].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's Q1 2025 report shows significant improvement in key performance indicators, attributed to rational deceleration and effective inventory reduction strategies implemented last year [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Shede Liquor achieved revenue of 1.576 billion yuan and net profit of 346.1 million yuan, surpassing the entire net profit of 345.8 million yuan for 2024 [2]. - The company's net cash flow from operating activities increased by 106.76% year-on-year, indicating a notable improvement in financial health [2]. - Operating costs decreased by 11.25% year-on-year, while management expenses fell by 25.24%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [2]. Inventory and Sales Strategy - The company successfully executed a strategy of "stabilizing prices, controlling inventory, and enhancing sales," leading to a return of inventory levels to a reasonable range [2]. - E-commerce channel sales grew to 205 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.71%, demonstrating the effectiveness of dual-channel optimization [2]. Brand and Marketing Initiatives - Shede Liquor is focusing on enhancing brand influence through various marketing strategies, including participation in cultural events and sponsorship of programs to increase brand exposure [3]. - The company reported that offline activities during the 2025 Spring Festival reached 850,000 people, with over 800 million online exposures, effectively driving brand sales growth [3]. Strategic Development - The company is advancing its liquor-tourism integration projects, which were initiated in March 2025, aiming to create a culturally rich and internationally recognized liquor town [4]. - This strategic layout is expected to enhance brand strength, modernize the regional liquor industry, and promote collaborative development of industry, culture, and urban areas [4]. Long-term Outlook - The "old liquor strategy" remains robust, with high certainty of performance improvement in 2025 due to ongoing inventory reduction and strategic initiatives [5]. - The dual-driven model of "upgrading consumer experience and innovative scene marketing" is anticipated to enhance product structure towards higher-end and value-oriented offerings [5].