煤炭周报 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变 2025 年 04 月 26 日 ➢ 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变。2025 年 4 月关税冲突 加码以来，受下游需求萎缩影响，沿海八省电厂日耗同比出现下降，3 月底周均 日耗 187.1 万吨，同比增加 3.5 万吨(+1.9%)，而截至 4 月 24 日当周，周均日 耗降至 176.0 万吨，同比减少 2.9 万吨(-1.6%)，在此影响下，煤价持续窄幅震 荡，本周环比延续小幅下滑。但同时，持续低煤价下新疆、内蒙古以露天矿为主 的边际产能产量或出现缩减，发运倒挂叠加大秦线检修，港口库存略有去化。展 望后市，非电需求仍维持缓慢提升，煤价向上动力不足，大秦线检修结束后铁路 发运提升，港口或有累库风险，边际产能成本、进口煤价倒挂以及长协基准价对 港口煤价有支撑，下行压力亦有限，预计短期现货价仍以窄幅震荡为主，长协价 仍表现出低波韧性。 ➢ 焦煤短期窄幅震荡为主，旺季或有阶段性反弹但空间有限。当前煤价下部分 配焦原煤转为动力煤销售更具性价比，焦煤价格已基本见底，叠加近期高炉持续 复产，铁水产量已提升至 2024 年以来最高水平 244.35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, among others [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal consumption has decreased due to tariff disruptions, with daily consumption in coastal provinces dropping from 1.871 million tons in late March to 1.760 million tons by April 24, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [1][7]. - Despite low coal prices, there is a lack of upward momentum for coal prices, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the short term [1][8]. - The report suggests that while there may be a temporary rebound in coking coal prices due to seasonal demand, the overall price increase potential remains limited [2][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the coal price has been experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent prices reported at 657 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao port, down 8 CNY from the previous week [8]. - The report indicates that the overall coal market is influenced by both weak demand and tariff disruptions, leading to cautious market sentiment [2][8]. Company Performance - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their stable performance and strong cash flow [2][11]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for major companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 2.95 CNY in 2024, and a PE ratio of 13 [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly decline of 0.8% in the coal sector compared to gains in major indices [12][14]. - It also notes that the coking coal market is expected to stabilize in the short term due to increased demand for steelmaking [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable earnings, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong cash flow like Jinkong Coal [2][11]. - It emphasizes the defensive value of companies with low debt and high cash flow amidst ongoing tariff disruptions [8].

山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司 2025 年 3 月主要运营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 3 月 | 2024 | 年 3 月 | 同比变化（%） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本月 | 累计 | 本月 | 累计 | 本月 | 累计 | | 原煤产量 | 万吨 | 470 | 1357 | 454 | 1324 | 3.52 | 2.49 | | 商品煤销量 | 万吨 | 409 | 1187 | 385 | 1181 | 6.23 | 0.51 | 以上主要运营数据来自本公司初步统计，可能与公司定期报告披 露的数据有差异，仅供投资者及时了解公司生产经营状况，不对公司 未来经营状况作出预测或承诺，敬请广大投资者理性投资，注意投资 风险。 证券代码：601699 股票简称：潞安环能 编号：2025-007 特此公告。 2025 年 4 月 16 日 山西潞安环 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price at ports has stabilized, and the investment value of leading coal companies is emphasized [2][4] - The supply constraints in the coal mining industry remain unchanged, while demand may fluctuate, leading to price dynamics and rebalancing [7][74] - The report highlights the strong cash flow and high asset quality of leading coal companies, characterized by high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers to entry, high dividends, and high safety margins [7][74] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Port inventory continues to decrease, and port prices have stabilized [10][13] - The production side shows stable supply, with a slight decrease in capacity utilization in the main production areas [13][21] - Demand has improved, with increased daily consumption in coastal and inland power plants [13][24] - The average daily coal input at ports has decreased, leading to a reduction in northern port inventories [29][33] 2. Coking Coal - Production continues to contract, with a decrease in capacity utilization due to previous production issues [39][73] - Demand has improved, with rising daily iron output and reduced inventory at coking enterprises [39][73] - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal has improved, with a decrease in production enterprise inventory [39][73] 3. Coke - The market anticipates price increases for coke after the Qingming Festival, with rising production rates in coking plants [52][73] - The average profit per ton of coke has decreased, indicating a challenging profitability environment [54][73] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite remains stable, with high operating rates in major production areas [68][74] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report identifies key companies to focus on, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, among others, with strong investment recommendations [8][75] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, indicating their investment potential [8][75]

山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司 证券代码：601699 股票简称：潞安环能 公告编号：2025-006 本次变更后的签字注册会计师近三年无执业行为受到刑事处罚，无受到证 关于变更签字会计师的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 4 月 19 日召开了第七届董事会第二十一次会议，审议通过了《关于续聘二○二四年 度审计机构的议案》，同意续聘信永中和会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）为公司 2024 年度内部控制审计机构。具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 4 月 19 日在上海证 券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）上披露的《关于续聘 2024 年度审计机构的公 告》（公告编号：2024-022）。 公司于 2025 年 4 月 2 日收到信永中和会计师事务所（特殊普通合伙）《关 于变更山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司 2024 年度内部控制审计签字注册会 计师的告知函》，现将具体情况公告如下： 一、本次签字注册会计师变更情况 信永中和会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10] Core Viewpoints - The coal price has experienced unexpected declines in the first quarter, leading to a year-on-year profit drop for most companies. However, companies with a higher proportion of long-term contracts, benefiting from improved calorific value and increased electricity generation, such as Xinji Energy, are expected to perform relatively well [2][7] - Despite the seasonal decline in coal demand post-heating season and high port inventories, the report suggests that the negative factors affecting coal stocks may gradually diminish, recommending a proactive approach towards the coal sector [6][24] Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of March 28, 2025, the average price of Qinhuangdao port Q5500 thermal coal was 722 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.2%. The long-term contract price remained more stable at 690 CNY/ton, down 2.6% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [7][14] - The average price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jing Tang port was 1443 CNY/ton, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 40.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15.4% [15] Production and Sales - In the first two months of 2025, the average monthly coal production in China was 38 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%. However, production decreased by 10% compared to the previous quarter [7][17] - Major coal companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal & Energy reported varied production changes, with Shenhua's production down 2.6% year-on-year and Shaanxi's up 9.4% [17] Profitability Forecast - The report anticipates that key coal companies will see an average profit decline of 7% to 17% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% to 16% is expected [7][8] - Xinji Energy is highlighted as a company likely to maintain stable performance due to its long-term contracts and operational efficiencies [2][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a marginal allocation strategy focusing on high-quality leaders with stable profits, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment and Xinji Energy [8]

Core Viewpoint - Investing in high-dividend companies may be a direction to outperform the index in the short term, with a focus on state-owned enterprise dividend ETFs showing slight upward movement [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of March 26, 2025, the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) decreased by 0.05%, with component stocks showing mixed performance [1]. - The State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) increased by 0.09%, with the latest price reported at 1.09 yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF reached 51.1486 million yuan, marking a one-month high [2]. Group 2: Component Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index accounted for 15.22% of the index, with notable stocks including COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) [3]. - The performance of key stocks varied, with COSCO Shipping Holdings down by 0.68% and Shanxi Coal International up by 1.07% [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - East Asia Securities suggests that focusing on high-dividend companies based on fundamentals may lead to short-term outperformance [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring market rhythm and industry progress, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and robotics, which are expected to see growth [2]. - Short-term investment opportunities are highlighted in marine economy, military industry, and consumer sectors with clear policy expectations [2].

Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has experienced a high-level retreat in the first two months of 2025, underperforming the market by 11.8 percentage points, ranking last among all industry indices [4][14]. - The coal price is expected to stabilize and gradually recover due to improved industrial demand, slowing production growth, and reduced import expectations [4][29]. Group 1: Coal Sector Review - In the first two months of 2025, the coal sector has declined by 10.0%, ranking 30th out of 30 in the industry indices [4][14]. - The sub-sectors of thermal coal, coking coal, and coke have seen respective declines of 15.5%, 11.4%, and 7.4% in the first two months [14]. - As of March 18, 2025, the coal sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is at 10.4 times, which is at a historical average level, while the price-to-book (PB) ratio is at 1.33 times, also at a historical average [19][23]. Group 2: Coal Market Review - The growth rate of electricity consumption has dropped to 1.3% in the first two months, while non-electric demand has shown overall improvement [4][29]. - Domestic coal prices have been weak since the beginning of the year, with thermal coal prices stabilizing in March [29]. - The import growth rate of coal has decreased to 1.8% in the first two months of 2025 [4][29]. Group 3: Recent Market Dynamics - Port thermal coal prices have slightly declined, while prices in production areas have generally rebounded [4][29]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to stabilize in the short term due to inventory reductions at southern ports and coastal power plants [4][29]. - Coking coal prices have continued to decline, but demand is expected to improve as the spring construction season approaches [4][29]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The coal price is expected to find support at the bottom, with the sector's valuation and dividend advantages becoming more pronounced [4][29]. - The anticipated average coal price for 2025 may decline, but leading companies are expected to maintain stable profitability due to effective cost control [4][29]. - Key companies with robust dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, while companies with lower valuations and long-term growth potential include Xinji Energy and Yanzhou Coal [4][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The coal prices in production areas are recovering, and there is anticipation for a rebound in non-electricity demand [1]. - The report highlights a seasonal decline in daily consumption of thermal coal [6]. - Coking coal and coke prices are under downward pressure [20]. - Steel production remains stable, but downstream steel prices are continuously declining [25]. - Futures prices for coking coal have slightly rebounded, and the price spread between coking coal and coke has narrowed [29]. - Shipping rates for both sea and land transport continue to rise [32]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: Production area coal prices are recovering, with a seasonal drop in daily consumption [6]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices are under pressure, with specific price data indicating fluctuations [20]. - **Downstream Changes**: Steel production is stable, but steel prices are declining [25]. - **Futures**: Coking coal futures prices have seen a slight increase, with a narrowing price gap [29]. - **Transportation**: Both sea and land shipping rates are on the rise [32]. Weekly Market Review (March 10-14, 2025) - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.39%, while the coal sector (CITIC) rose by 4.97% [34]. - Notable stock performances include Daya Energy (+33.57%) and Meijin Energy (+17.51%) [34]. Weekly Insights (March 9-15, 2025) - The report provides a detailed analysis of various coal companies, including their ratings, closing prices, and weekly performance [37]. - For instance, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry is rated "Buy" with a closing price of 20.20 and a weekly increase of 6.82% [37]. - China Shenhua is rated "Increase" with a closing price of 37.17 and a weekly increase of 3.57% [37]. - Other companies such as Yancoal and Huai Bei Mining also show positive weekly performance [37].

以上主要运营数据来自本公司初步统计，可能与公司定期报告披 露的数据有差异，仅供投资者及时了解公司生产经营状况，不对公司 未来经营状况作出预测或承诺，敬请广大投资者理性投资，注意投资 风险。 特此公告。 山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 3 月 15 日 山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司 2025 年 2 月主要运营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 2 | 月 | 2024 | 年 2 月 | | 同比变化（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本月 | | 累计 | 本月 | 累计 | 本月 | 累计 | | 原煤产量 | 万吨 | 460 | | 887 | 417 | 870 | 10.31 | 1.95 | | 商品煤销量 | 万吨 | 403 | | 778 | 364 | 796 | 10.71 | -2.26 | 证券代码：6 ...