Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The current coal price adjustment has been ongoing for nearly four years since the peak in Q4 2021, and the market is well aware of the price decline. The industry is at a critical stage of price bottoming, and the report emphasizes the importance of understanding the industry's fundamental attributes and maintaining confidence [7][63] - Key recommendations include major coal enterprises such as China Shenhua (H+A) and China Coal Energy (H+A), as well as companies showing signs of recovery like Qinfa [8][64] Summary by Sections Cash King - Since the supply-side reform in 2016, the historical burden on coal companies has significantly decreased. Despite the continuous decline in coal prices since early 2024, some companies have cash balances (cash and cash equivalents + trading financial assets) far exceeding their interest-bearing debts. As of Q1 2025, the top five companies with the highest cash balances are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Jinkong Coal, China Coal Energy, and Lu'an Environmental Energy [1][17] Low Debt - As of Q1 2025, the asset-liability ratio for large coal enterprises is 60.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Most sampled coal companies have asset-liability ratios lower than the industry average. The companies with the lowest asset-liability ratios are China Shenhua, Jinkong Coal, Electric Power Investment Energy, Yitai B, and Shanghai Energy [20][21] Strong Foundation - Special reserves are funds set aside by coal companies for safety production and maintaining simple reproduction. The top five companies with the highest net increase in special reserves from the end of 2023 to Q1 2025 are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yitai B, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Gansu Energy [25][31] High Potential - Considering the cyclical nature of coal prices, coal companies may enhance cost control to ensure steady improvement in profitability. The report evaluates potential profit release using the ratio of operating cash flow minus net profit, depreciation, and financial expenses to net profit. The companies with the highest potential for profit release are Haohua Energy, Yitai B, Huabei Mining, China Coal Energy, and Shanmei International [2][51] Dividend King - The top five companies in terms of cumulative cash dividends over the past three years are China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yunkang Energy, China Coal Energy, and Lu'an Environmental Energy. The report highlights the high dividend attributes of coal companies, driven by reduced historical burdens and a cautious approach to reinvesting in traditional businesses [3][55]

煤炭 2025 年 5 月 7 日 潞安环能(601699.SH) 煤价下行至底部区间，静待耗煤旺季拐点来临 推荐（维持） 股价：10.97 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 煤炭 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.luanhn.com | | 大股东/持股 | 山西潞安矿业集团 / 61.44% | | 实际控制人 | 山西省国资委 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | -- | | 总市值（亿元） | 328 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 328 | | 每股净资产(元) | 15.79 | | 资产负债率(%) | 38.27 | 行情走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 24-04 24-05 24-06 24-07 24-08 24-09 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 潞安环能 沪深300 相关研究报告 《潞安环能(601699.SH)公司首次覆盖报告：资金 增厚 债务收窄，价有弹性量增可期》2024-11-18 ...

煤炭 2025 年 5 月 7 日 潞安环能(601699.SH) 煤价下行至底部区间，静待耗煤旺季拐点来临 推荐（维持） 股价：10.97 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 煤炭 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.luanhn.com | | 大股东/持股 | 山西潞安矿业集团 / 61.44% | | 实际控制人 | 山西省国资委 | | 总股本(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 2991 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | -- | | 总市值（亿元） | 328 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 328 | | 每股净资产(元) | 15.79 | | 资产负债率(%) | 38.27 | 行情走势图 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 24-04 24-05 24-06 24-07 24-08 24-09 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 潞安环能 沪深300 相关研究报告 《潞安环能(601699.SH)公司首次覆盖报告：资金 增厚 债务收窄，价有弹性量增可期》2024-11-18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, down 16.89% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.08% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's coal production was 57.57 million tons, a decrease of 4.8% year-on-year, and coal sales were 52.25 million tons, down 5.0% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal was 645.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 82.0 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the sales cost increased to 390.76 yuan/ton, up 43.1 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for coal mining was 39.48%, down 12.74 percentage points year-on-year [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.968 billion yuan, down 19.53% year-on-year, and a net profit of 657 million yuan, down 48.95% year-on-year [1][3] Production and Sales - The company has 18 operational mines with an advanced capacity of 49.7 million tons/year and plans for additional capacity of approximately 8.5 million tons/year [3] - In Q1 2025, coal production slightly increased to 13.57 million tons, up 2.49% year-on-year, while coal sales were 11.87 million tons, up 0.51% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of coal in Q1 2025 was 542.8 yuan/ton, down 146.6 yuan/ton year-on-year, with a sales cost of 340.2 yuan/ton, down 37.6 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] Market Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading producer of injection coal in China, maintaining relatively stable production and sales amid a challenging coal market [4] - Current coal prices are at a low point, with potential for recovery as summer demand increases and inventory levels decrease [4] - The company has improved its financial structure and cash flow, providing support for potential acquisitions and capacity expansion [4] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 2.754 billion yuan for 2025, 3.251 billion yuan for 2026, and 3.592 billion yuan for 2027 [4] - The price-to-earnings ratios for these years are projected to be 11.9, 10.1, and 9.1 respectively [4]

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Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a continued downward trend in Q1 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices and market conditions [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue was 35.85 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.1% year-on-year [3]. - For Q1 2025, the operating revenue was 6.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.5% year-on-year and 24.3% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 660 million yuan, down 49.0% year-on-year [3]. Coal Price Trends - The average price of Shanxi Luocheng blown coal in 2024 was 1,099 yuan/ton, down 20.1% year-on-year, and further decreased to 921 yuan/ton in Q1 2025, down 16.4% year-on-year and 13.6% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The comprehensive selling price of the company's commercial coal in Q1 2025 was 543 yuan/ton, down 21.3% year-on-year [4]. Production and Capacity - In 2024, the company's raw coal production was 57.28 million tons, down 5.2% year-on-year, while commercial coal sales were 52.16 million tons, also down 5.2% year-on-year [5]. - In Q1 2025, raw coal production increased to 13.57 million tons, up 2.5% year-on-year, and commercial coal sales were 11.87 million tons, up 0.5% year-on-year [5]. - The company has obtained exploration rights for coal in the Shama block, increasing coal resources by over 800 million tons, with planned mining capacity of approximately 8.5 million tons [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to maintain coal production at around 50 million tons in 2025, aiming for operating revenue exceeding 30 billion yuan [6]. - Initiatives to enhance quality and efficiency include benchmarking, cost reduction, and management improvements [6]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.41 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 50%, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.8% based on the closing price on April 30 [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector's overall performance in Q1 2025 showed a decline, with a total net profit of 24.12 billion yuan, down 41.5% year-on-year. Among 37 listed companies, 25 reported profits, with 23 experiencing a year-on-year decline in net profit [3] - The report suggests that the weak demand in Q1, influenced by holidays and higher temperatures, led to increased supply and falling coal prices. However, due to long-term contract pricing, the performance of thermal coal companies remained relatively stable. A rebound in coal prices is expected around mid-May [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand recovery and suggests that the current demand may represent the annual bottom, with a potential rebound in prices during the peak season [3] Industry Market Performance - As of April 29, the CITIC coal industry index fell by 3.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 2.89%. Year-to-date, the coal sector has dropped by 13.99%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 9.93 percentage points [10] - The coal industry's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 11.5, which is relatively low compared to other sectors, ranking 27th among 30 CITIC primary industries [10] Supply and Demand Situation - In Q1 2025, the average daily sales of the top 20 coal groups decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, while national coal production increased by 8.1% to 1.2 billion tons [4][40] - The total coal consumption in China for Q1 2025 was 1.27 billion tons, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year, with the power sector consuming 740 million tons, down 3% [59] - The report indicates that coal prices have generally declined in Q1, with thermal coal prices at 767.6 yuan/ton, down 16.5% year-on-year [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies during market dips, specifically mentioning China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy for thermal coal, and Huabei Mining and Lu'an Environmental Energy for coking coal [3]

Summary of Lu'an Huaneng Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lu'an Huaneng - **Industry**: Coal Mining Key Points and Arguments Production and Market Conditions - Lu'an Huaneng expects a slight increase in coal production in 2025, maintaining a target of 50 million tons, consistent with the previous year [2][4] - The long-term coal price remains stable at 570 RMB/ton, while the market price for injection coal is approximately 950-1,000 RMB/ton [2][6] - The coking coal market is in a weak balance with stable inventory levels [2][6] Financial Performance - The company reported a loss in Q4 2024 primarily due to concentrated management expenses and decreased production intensity [2][6] - In Q1 2025, costs have significantly decreased, and the company has suspended the special development fund to alleviate financial pressure [2][6] - The dividend payout ratio has decreased from 60% to 50% due to capital expenditures, resource purchases, and declining performance [5][14] Development Projects - The new acquisitions have been fully paid for, and development is underway, including the utilization of existing mines and the construction of new mines expected to take over five years [2][5][7] - There is no clear timeline for the commissioning of the Xinyu Mine and Jing'an Coal Mine technical transformation projects, with no expected production increase in 2025 [8][2] Exploration and Regulatory Environment - The exploration rights for Yuanfeng Mining and Shangma Mining are progressing, with ongoing preliminary procedures [9][10] - The approval process for exploration rights has been completed, but the government’s attitude towards new mine approvals has changed, requiring a gradual completion of processes [10] Inventory and Sales Discrepancies - There is a discrepancy of approximately 1.7 million tons between production and sales, attributed to losses during the conversion of raw coal to marketable coal and inventory factors [11] - Current inventory levels are stable at 300,000 to 400,000 tons [11] Future Outlook - The company does not anticipate significant impairment losses in 2025, following no major impairments in 2024 [12] - Future dividend trends are expected to remain stable, responding to regulatory guidance and shareholder demands [15] Cost Management - The suspension of the coal mine transformation development fund has reduced raw coal costs by approximately 5 RMB/ton, leading to an annual cost reduction of about 250 million RMB [16] - Other special reserve fees may also be adjusted based on market conditions, but will not fall below minimum safety standards [17] Coking Business Performance - The coking business is expected to perform similarly to 2024, with ongoing cost control and process optimization to improve marginal effects [19][20] Tax Incentives and Asset Injection - The company plans to apply for tax incentives around June 2025, with expectations of approval by the end of the year [21] - There is potential for asset injection from the group into the listed company, encouraged by recent national policies [22][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was under pressure due to a decline in both volume and price, with a focus on growth potential and the elasticity of blowing coal [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 35.85 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.1% year-on-year [3][4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.96 billion, 3.27 billion, and 3.67 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.9%, 10.3%, and 12.3% [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's coal production was 51.85 million tons, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, while sales volume was 52.25 million tons, down 5% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 645.6 yuan per ton, a decrease of 11.3% year-on-year, while the cost per ton increased by 12.4% to 390.8 yuan [4] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 36.9%, down from 47.7% in 2023 [6] Capacity and Growth Potential - The company has ongoing projects that are expected to contribute to capacity growth, including four under-construction mines with a total capacity of 3 million tons per year [5] - The company successfully acquired coal exploration rights in Shanxi province, which is expected to add significant resources in the future [5] Dividend Policy - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend ratio of 50.07% for 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.7% based on the closing price on April 28, 2025 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699.SH) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements in the first quarter, with expectations for increased volume and reduced costs throughout the year [3] - The company aims to expand its resource base to address the short lifespan of existing mines, focusing on resource acquisition and project development [4][6] - The company is projected to maintain a high cash dividend payout ratio, reflecting strong asset quality and a solid operational strategy [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 35.85 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.45 billion yuan, down 69.08% year-on-year [1] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 6.97 billion yuan, a decline of 19.53% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.66 billion yuan, down 48.95% year-on-year [2] - The company’s coal production in 2024 was 57.28 million tons, a decrease of 5.17% year-on-year, with expectations for recovery in the latter half of the year [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing resource expansion and project construction to enhance its competitive edge in the coal industry [4] - A recent acquisition of coal exploration rights in Shanxi Province is expected to significantly boost the company's resource base [4] Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.86 billion, 2.44 billion, and 2.74 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.62, 0.82, and 0.91 yuan per share [6] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's growth potential, supported by its strong market position and high dividend yield [6]