➢ 旺季已至，基建发力，需求有望超预期提升。此前由于用电需求疲弱，煤价 出现大幅下滑，5 月下旬以来火电发电量同比增速已转正并持续提升，7 月上旬 全国发电量同比增速达 7.89%，火电增速达 4.83%，一方面实体用电需求边际好 转，另一方面伴随气温升高，全国电力负荷屡创历史新高，二十五省电厂日耗加 速攀升。同时非电化工需求同比增速从 5 月初的 10%攀升至当前近 20%，环比 仍保持小幅上行。雅下工程开工释放基建发力信号，我们预期后续或有望持续加 大基建投入，从而利好水泥、钢铁、化工行业，提振动力煤及焦煤需求。我们预 计在旺季和政策利好的共同驱动下，需求有望超预期提升，8 月中旬价格高点有 望突破 750 元/吨，下半年价格中枢有望维持 700 元/吨左右。板块方面，当前 煤价已进入加速上行通道，业绩稳健、高现货比例标的弹性更为充足。 ➢ 投资建议：标的方面，我们推荐以下投资主线：1）业绩稳健、成长型标的， 建议关注晋控煤业、华阳股份。2）高现货比例弹性标的，建议关注潞安环能。 3）产量恢复性增长，建议关注山煤国际。4）行业龙头业绩稳健，建议关注陕西 煤业、中国神华、中煤能源。5）受益核电增长，强α稀缺 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with the central price level continuing to rise. Domestic power plants have increased daily coal consumption, leading to further price increases for both coking coal and thermal coal. The report emphasizes that the industry is supported by both policy and fundamental factors, maintaining a "Positive" rating for the coal sector [6][41]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 8% compared to a 1.69% rise in the index, resulting in a 6.31 percentage point outperformance. A total of 37 stocks in the sector saw price increases, with Lu'an Huanneng showing the highest weekly gain of 31.22% [2]. Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from July 18 to July 24, 2025, were 7.14 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.4% but a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 30.55 million tons, down 2.3% week-on-week but up 20.5% year-on-year [2][8]. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of July 25, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 664 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.85 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [3]. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,650 CNY/ton, up 16.2% week-on-week. The inventory at Jingtang Port decreased by 11.16% week-on-week, while the total inventory at independent coking plants increased by 56.27% [4]. Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of Yanquan anthracite coal remained stable at 820 CNY/ton. The methanol market price in East China rose to 2,476.14 CNY/ton, an increase of 100.91 CNY/ton week-on-week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Huainan Mining for thermal coal, and Huai Bei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][41].

供给收缩预期升温，煤价反弹支撑强劲 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 07 月 26 日 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 18,162.14 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 17,743.63 | 动力仍强》2025-07-19 弹有望超预期》2025-07-12 "反内卷"政策落地》2025-07-05 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2 ...

证券代码：601699 股票简称：潞安环能 公告编号：2025-032 山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司 股票交易异常波动公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： ●山西潞安环保能源开发股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"或"公司"）A 股股票连续三个交易日（即 2025 年 7 月 22 日、7 月 23 日、7 月 24 日）收盘价格 涨幅偏离值累计达到 20%，根据《上海证券交易所交易规则》等相关规定，属于异 常波动的情形。 （一）生产经营情况 经公司自查，目前公司生产经营活动正常，日常经营情况未发生重大变化。 （二）重大事项 经公司自查，并向公司控股股东发函确认，截至本公告披露日，公司及公司控股股东均 不存在影响公司股票交易价格异常波动的重大事项；不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息，包 括但不限于重大资产重组、发行股份、上市公司收购、债务重组、业务重组、资产剥离和资 产注入等重大事项。 （三）媒体报道、市场传闻、热点概念情况 经公司自查，公司未发现对公司股票交易价格可能产生重大影响的需要澄清或 ...

Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing a significant upward trend, with New Dazhou A (000571) hitting the daily limit increase [1] - Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699) has risen over 3%, indicating strong market performance [1] - Other companies such as Shaanxi Black Cat (601015), Pingmei Shenma (601666), and Baotailong (601011) are also seeing gains, reflecting a broader positive movement in the coal industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is expected to benefit from a new round of anti-involution and capacity reduction measures initiated by the National Energy Administration, aimed at stabilizing coal supply and optimizing industry order [2][3][9]. Group 1: Policy Announcement - The National Energy Administration issued a notification on July 10, 2025, regarding the organization of coal mine production situation checks to promote stable and orderly coal supply [2][5]. - The notification indicates that the coal supply-demand situation has been generally loose this year, with prices continuously declining, leading some coal enterprises to produce beyond their announced capacity, disrupting market order [3][4]. Group 2: Inspection Scope and Requirements - The inspection will cover coal mines in eight provinces, including Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Anhui, focusing on whether the annual coal output exceeds announced capacity and if production plans are reasonable [5][6]. - Violations will be categorized and dealt with according to the nature and severity, with corrective actions mandated for companies exceeding production limits [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reaction and Investment Outlook - Following the announcement, the coal sector saw a significant increase, with a rise of over 6% on July 22, 2025, although it experienced a slight decline the following day [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the anti-involution measures will help stabilize supply-demand relationships and optimize industry order, with high-quality coal companies still showing strong attributes such as high barriers to entry and cash flow [2][9]. - The current proportion of loss-making companies in the coal industry stands at 53.6%, significantly higher than 35% in 2016, indicating a pressing need for the anti-involution actions to restore profitability [9][11]. Group 4: Price Trends and Future Expectations - As of July 21, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 642 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12 RMB/ton, and a rebound of 27 RMB/ton from the yearly low [10]. - Analysts predict that with improved demand and more rational supply releases, coal prices are expected to rise further, creating a safer and more sustainable development environment for the industry [10][11].

◎记者 王文嫣 7月22日股票市场收盘，申万宏源煤炭指数大涨6.18%，山西焦煤、昊华能源、山煤国际、潞安环能、 淮北矿业、晋控煤业等煤炭上市公司股价集体涨停。期货市场，焦煤、焦炭主力合约均收于涨停，涨幅 为7.98%。上海证券报记者从多方获悉，国家能源局拟于近期在重点产煤省（区）组织开展煤矿生产情 况核查工作。资深煤炭行业研究员认为，根据核查通知相关精神，煤炭等资源品或将迎来拐点。 煤炭行业板块指数日K线图 张大伟 制图 煤炭行业"反内卷"即将展开 需求回升 煤炭等资源品或迎拐点 "除了供应端有收缩预期，随着宏观经济好转，此前超跌的资源品价格也在修复中。"万家基金经理叶勇 对记者表示，当前各行业都在"反内卷"，相关政策通过严格按照产能来限制产量有一定合理性。而从需 求和成本角度来看，近期煤炭等资源品价格也已触底，将迎来拐点。 中国电煤采购价格指数（CECI）编制办公室发布的最新一期《CECI指数分析周报》显示，CECI沿海指 数中高热值煤种现货成交价分别较上期上涨11元/吨和6元/吨。曹妃甸指数各规格品价格较上期均上涨 10元/吨。CECI进口指数到岸标煤单价继续上涨。CECI采购经理人指数连续6期处于扩张 ...

【导读】焦煤、焦炭夜盘暴涨，美股下跌 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚继续关注海内外的市场消息。 焦煤、 焦炭 夜盘暴涨 7月22日晚间， 焦煤 主力合约 夜盘涨停，收涨11%， 报1135.5元/吨，已连续第二个交易日涨停。 焦炭涨5.29%，纯碱涨 3.84%。 | V | 主力合约报价排名 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排序 | 名称 해당 | 最新 | 涨幅 | | 涨幅/跌幅 | 焦煤2509 | 1135.5 | 11.00% | | 持仓量 | 焦炭2509 | 1731.5 | 5.29% | | 总股本 | 纯碱2509 | 1380 | 3.84% | | | 玻璃2509 | 1237 | 2.83% | | 日増減仓 | 纸浆2509 | 5468 | 2.36% | | 资金流向 | 氧化铝2509 | 3515 | 1.83% | | 趋势度 | PVC2509 | 5250 | 1.23% | | | 螺纹钢2510 | 3302 | 1.16% | | 5日涨幅 跌幅 | 烧碱2509 | 2645 | 1.07% | 消息面上，近 ...

周二，市场全天震荡走高，三大指数盘中均创年内新高。两市全天成交1.89万亿，较上个交易日放量 1931亿。三大指数今天走的有点狡猾了，开盘冲高回落，午后冲高也回落。但这并不是洗盘，吓人下车 的，而是今天有很多资金在出货调仓吗，都赶着去追"水电站"了。最后，指数能收红，还是靠"神秘资 金"拉上去的。这从"大金融"表现就很明显，等你们跑完了再拉。从三大指数表现来看，今天是超预期 的。"下去再上来"比普通的"震荡上扬"要强多了！如果大盘按这个涨法，周五或者下周一就有可能完全 解放"924"产生的套牢盘，这强到没朋友啊！ 复盘天天论 最热板块 收~ 盘面上，市场热点集中在大基建方向，个股跌多涨少，全市场超2700只个股下跌，连续两天超百股涨 停。从板块来看，超级水电概念股持续爆发，中国电建等多股涨停。钢铁、煤炭、水泥等反内卷方向集 体走强，潞安环能等多股涨停。下跌方面，算力方向展开调整，优刻得等跌超5%。 "水电站板块"今天继续强势，短期的主线地位是应该稳了。唯一不爽的是，怎么板块里还是一堆"顶一 字板"的，根本不出现分化！这么强的一致性，没有筹码交换，后续谁敢接盘哦？！股民都是有记忆 的，以前也是有题材被这么玩坏的 ...

中央金融办、证监会于2024年9月26日印发的《关于推动中长期资金入市的指导意见》和中央金融办等6 部门于2025年1月22日印发的《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》，明确提及建立健全商业保 险资金、各类养老金等中长期资金的三年以上长周期考核机制；财政部于7月11日印发《关于引导保险 资金长期稳健投资进一步加强国有商业保险公司长周期考核的通知》，要求自2025年度绩效评价工作起 参照执行。业内人士表示，《通知》出台后，A股市场有望迎来一系列积极的变化。未来两至三年内， 险资在A股的配置比例有望从当前约11%稳步上升至15%甚至更高；三至五年内，险资对A股的年均净 增配规模可达3000亿至5000亿元，配置结构也将由"防御型"为主，逐步拓展至"攻守兼备"。 对于A股持续走强，中金公司发布研报称，近期宏观基本面没有明显催化，A股市场明显走强，需要重 视从资金面视角理解市场，并总结出A股资金面正在发生的五大重要变化：变化一：货币秩序重构引发 资产变局，人民币资产相对受益；变化二：A股投资者结构中，个人投资者占比阶段性提升；变化三： 居民储蓄存款增长叠加"资产荒"，股市的相对吸引力提升；变化四：A股资金面筹码结 ...