[Table_Page] 年报点评|通用设备 海外业务放量，盈利能力增长可观 盈利预测： [Table_Title] 海天精工（601882.SH） ⚫ 营收小幅增长，利润率提升可观。2023Q4 公司实现营业收入 8.16 亿 元，同比增长 0.65%，归母净利润 1.46 亿元，同比增长 11.47%，全 年营收及归母净利润分别增长 4.59%/17.06%。利润增速领先营收增速 代表公司整体利润率水平有所提高，全年毛利率提升 2.63pct 至 29.94%，净利率提升 1.95pct 至 18.34%，盈利能力增长可观。 ⚫ 各产品毛利率稳步提升，高毛利卧加销售高增。23 年公司主要产品毛 利率均有所提升，龙门毛利率+0.26pct，卧加毛利率+1.28pct，立加毛 利率+5.63pct，成本控制有效。产品结构方面，龙门与立加销售额分别 减少 6.29%/5.34%，毛利率较高的卧加销售额增长 48.30%。另外公司 还针对新能源汽车行业和海外市场研发高性价比机型。 ⚫ 海外业务快速放量，带来更多成长性。2023 年公司海外业务营收 5.94 亿元，同比增长 76.06%，毛利率 39.29%。同期 ...

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 海天精工 沪深300 盈利能力稳中向好，持续加大研发投入 公司在数控机床领域技术积淀深厚，产品矩阵不断丰富。2023 年发布 BFH2030D 双五轴高速铣削中心，应用于大型一体化压铸件，适应新能源汽车 行业的高速加工需求；同时立式加工中心也迎来突破，推出 CFVⅡ系列高速立 式加工中心，有望持续受益国产替代趋势。针对海外市场，公司积极研发适应 各海外区域需求痛点的高性价比机型。公司在泰国、越南、印度及新加坡等潜 力较大市场设立子公司，进一步加快全球市场营销布局，充分发挥海天集团的 全球布局经验和协同效应，推进海外业务不断增长。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 ( 百万元 ) | 3,177 | 3,323 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 31.97 CNY based on a 23x average P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2024 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved record high revenue and profit in 2023, demonstrating resilience and growth potential as an industry leader. In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 816 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 146 million CNY, up 11.5% year-on-year and 2.6% quarter-on-quarter, marking the second-highest quarterly performance in history [1]. - The overall gross margin for the company improved to 29.94% in 2023, an increase of 2.63 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 18.34%, up 1.95 percentage points year-on-year. The company’s CNC machining centers showed significant gross margin improvements, indicating strong product competitiveness even during industry downturns [1]. - The overseas business segment saw substantial growth, with revenue reaching 594 million CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 76%. This segment now accounts for 17.9% of total revenue, up 7.3 percentage points year-on-year, and has a gross margin of 39.29%, significantly higher than the domestic business margin of 27.91% [1]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 3.32 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, and a net profit of 609 million CNY, reflecting a 17.1% increase year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 1.17 CNY, with projections for 2024 and 2025 set at 1.39 CNY and 1.62 CNY respectively [19][21]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a gross margin of 29.9% and a net margin of 18.3% for 2023, with expectations for continued improvement in profitability in the coming years [19][21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][19] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from structural opportunities such as policy advantages, self-sufficiency, and overseas expansion, with projected net profits of 700 million, 840 million, and 1 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 19x, 16x, and 14x respectively [2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of 816 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.65%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 146 million yuan, up 11.47% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 137 million yuan, reflecting a 7.36% increase year-on-year [2][15] - The company's gross margin and net margin have been continuously improving since 2019, with a gross margin of 29.94% and a net margin of 18.34% in 2023, representing increases of 2.63 percentage points and 1.95 percentage points year-on-year respectively [13][36] - The company’s revenue from CNC horizontal lathes increased by 48.30% year-on-year, with sales volume up 29.52% and average price rising by 14.5%, primarily driven by strong demand in overseas markets [13][36] - The company’s overseas revenue grew by 76.06% year-on-year, indicating successful market expansion efforts [13][17] Market and Industry Context - The machine tool industry is closely tied to the manufacturing sector, which is currently in a phase of weak recovery. If the recovery does not meet expectations, it may adversely affect machine tool demand and the company's operating environment [6][39] - The domestic demand for CNC machine tools has shown signs of recovery, with production increasing since September 2023, ending a prolonged downturn [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 36.40 CNY, down from the previous forecast of 42.58 CNY [19]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, achieving a revenue of 3.32 billion CNY in 2023, a 4.59% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 609 million CNY, up 17.06% [3]. - The company is actively expanding into overseas markets due to a sluggish domestic market, with overseas sales increasing by 76.06% in 2023 [3]. - The report highlights the potential for industry recovery driven by equipment upgrades and the company's efforts to optimize domestic and international production capacity [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3.32 billion CNY in 2023 to 5.62 billion CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% [1]. - Operating profit (EBIT) is expected to increase from 617 million CNY in 2023 to 1.15 billion CNY in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 31% in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 609 million CNY in 2023 to 1.04 billion CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 20% in 2024 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 1.17 CNY in 2023 to 1.99 CNY in 2026 [1]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The company's operating profit margin is expected to improve from 18.6% in 2023 to 20.4% in 2026 [17]. - The net asset return rate (ROE) is projected to decrease slightly from 26.4% in 2023 to 21.0% in 2026 [17]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decline from 23.08 in 2023 to 13.52 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [17].

分析师承诺及简介 本人承诺以勤勉的执业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告，本报告清晰准确地反映本人的研究观点。本人薪酬的任何部分过去不 曾与、现在不与、未来也将不会与本报告的具体推荐或观点直接或间接相关。 鲁佩，伦敦政治经济学院经济学硕士，证券从业 9 年，2021 年加入中国银河证券研究院。曾获新财富最佳分析师、IAMAC 最 受欢迎卖方分析师、万得金牌分析师、中证报最佳分析师、Choice 最佳分析师、金翼奖等。 免责声明 本报告由中国银河证券股份有限公司（以下简称银河证券）向其客户提供。银河证券无需因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。 若您并非银河证券客户中的专业投资者，为保证服务质量、控制投资风险、应首先联系银河证券机构销售部门或客户经理，完成投 资者适当性匹配，并充分了解该项服务的性质、特点、使用的注意事项以及若不当使用可能带来的风险或损失。 本报告所载的全部内容只提供给客户做参考之用，并不构成对客户的投资咨询建议，并非作为买卖、认购证券或其它金融工具 的邀请或保证。客户不应单纯依靠本报告而取代自我独立判断。银河证券认为本报告资料来源是可靠的，所载内容及观点客观公正， 但不担保其准确性或完整性。本报告所载内容 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the market [7][12]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic CNC machine tool manufacturer, with accelerated development in overseas markets [3][19]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3.32 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.59%, while the net profit reached 609 million yuan, up 17.06% year-on-year [15][16]. - The report highlights the company's focus on product innovation and market expansion, particularly in the high-end CNC machine tool sector [18][19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenues of 3.32 billion yuan, with a net profit of 609 million yuan, and a cash dividend distribution of 141 million yuan to shareholders [3][15]. - The revenue breakdown by product shows that the CNC gantry machining center generated 1.70 billion yuan, accounting for 51.21% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 31.21% [3][4]. - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 29.94% in 2023, an increase of 2.63 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin rose to 18.34%, up 1.95 percentage points year-on-year [4][15]. Market Outlook - The CNC machine tool industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic support and favorable policies aimed at promoting industrial development, which will create new market opportunities [19]. - The company is actively enhancing its production capacity and expanding its product range to meet the growing demand in both domestic and international markets [18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of 26.95 yuan [10]. Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with significant growth in overseas revenue [11][16]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3.323 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.59%, and a net profit of 609 million yuan, up 17.06% year-on-year [17][18]. - The report highlights the company's strong growth potential driven by import substitution and overseas expansion, with expectations for continued stable growth in performance [18]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are as follows: - 2024E: Revenue of 3.846 billion yuan, net profit of 716 million yuan - 2025E: Revenue of 4.414 billion yuan, net profit of 837 million yuan - 2026E: Revenue of 4.980 billion yuan, net profit of 962 million yuan [7][19]. - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 20 for 2024, 17 for 2025, and 15 for 2026 [18][19]. Growth and Profitability - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2023 were 29.94% and 18.34%, respectively, both showing year-on-year increases [18]. - The report notes a significant increase in overseas revenue, which grew by 76.06% year-on-year, helping to offset domestic demand declines [18]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2023 was 569 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 160.99% [18]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong cash flow generation capabilities, indicating robust operational stability [18].

[Table_StockNameRptType] 海天精工（601882） 公司研究/公司点评 23 年报点评：盈利能力提升，海外布局持续拓宽 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,177 | 3,323 | 3,915 | 4,511 | 5,202 | | 同比 | 16.37% | 4.59% | 17.80% | 15.22% | 15.31% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 520.65 | 609.48 | 700.51 | 847.39 | 1,012.57 | | 同比 | 40.31% | 17.06% | 14.93% | 20.97% | 19.49% | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.34 | 1.62 | 1.94 | | P/E （现价 & 最新摊薄） | 27.02 | 23.08 | 20.08 | 16.60 | 13 ...