Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 35.01 CNY per share based on a 25x PE valuation for 2024 [2][46]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the mid-to-high-end CNC machine tool sector, benefiting from capacity advantages and a strong market position [2]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 3.858 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 16.1% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 731 million CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 19.9% [6]. - The company has announced a cash dividend of 0.27 CNY per share, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns [20]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022A: 3,177 - 2023A: 3,323 - 2024E: 3,858 - 2025E: 4,448 - 2026E: 5,131 - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2022A: 521 - 2023A: 609 - 2024E: 731 - 2025E: 839 - 2026E: 966 - EPS (CNY per share): - 2022A: 1.00 - 2023A: 1.17 - 2024E: 1.40 - 2025E: 1.61 - 2026E: 1.85 - EBITDA (in million CNY): - 2022A: 610 - 2023A: 685 - 2024E: 803 - 2025E: 926 - 2026E: 1,063 [6][20][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [14][8]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue of 756 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.41%, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, down 3.67% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to weak demand for industrial mother machines since the second half of 2023. However, there is optimism for a rebound in domestic demand and continued growth driven by import substitution and increasing overseas market share [16][17]. - The company is expected to benefit from ongoing import substitution, particularly in high-end CNC machine tools, as restrictions on exports from developed countries to China increase. In 2023, the import value of CNC machine tools was approximately 5.41 billion USD, accounting for 35.4% of domestic consumption [17]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 716 million, 837 million, and 962 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 18, and 16 [17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 756 million yuan, a decrease of 3.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, down 3.67% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [16]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2024 were 28.47% and 17.25%, respectively, showing slight declines due to reduced capacity utilization from weak demand [17]. Growth Potential - The company is positioned for long-term growth due to domestic demand recovery and import substitution, particularly in high-end machine tools. The ongoing development of core components and expansion into overseas markets are expected to enhance performance [17]. - The report highlights the establishment of subsidiaries in Singapore and Thailand, indicating a strategic focus on international markets, which are anticipated to grow faster than domestic markets [17]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, projecting revenues to grow from 3.32 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.98 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13% [2]. - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 15% from 2023 to 2026, reflecting strong operational efficiency and market positioning [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, reflecting a positive outlook based on its market position and growth potential [9][13]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2024 showed a slight decline, with revenue of 756 million yuan, down 3.41% year-on-year, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, down 3.67% year-on-year. The overall industry remains weak, with a 9.6% year-on-year decrease in new orders and a 14.9% decrease in orders on hand [4][5]. - A new policy aimed at promoting the replacement of industrial equipment, particularly machine tools over 10 years old, is expected to boost demand in the domestic market. This is anticipated to enhance the industry's recovery, benefiting the company as a leading player [1][4]. - The company has seen significant growth in overseas markets, with a 76.06% increase in overseas revenue in 2023, contributing to an improved profit margin compared to domestic operations [42]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 756 million yuan and a net profit of 130 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.41% and 3.67% respectively [4]. - The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is 733 million yuan, 883 million yuan, and 1.059 billion yuan, indicating a steady growth trajectory [13][45]. Industry Outlook - The machine tool industry is currently experiencing weak demand, but the introduction of equipment replacement policies is expected to stimulate market recovery [1][5]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the anticipated increase in demand due to its leading market position and proactive strategies in overseas markets [1][42]. Growth Projections - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 21.77% in 2024, followed by 20.94% in 2025 and 17.25% in 2026 [45]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, with estimates of 26.70% in 2024 and gradually increasing to 27.10% by 2026 [45].

◼ 集团内循环优势明显，产能布局充足有望再造海天 市场数据 东吴证券研究所 1 / 3 ◼ 期间费用率控制较好，毛利率基本保持稳定 相关研究 投资评级基于分析师对报告发布日后 6 至 12 个月内行业或公司回报潜力相对基准表现 的预期（A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美国市场基准为标普 500 指数，新三板基准指数为三板成指（针对协议转让标的）或三板做市指数（针对做市转 让标的），北交所基准指数为北证 50 指数），具体如下： 公司投资评级： 601882 海天精工（601882） 2024 年一季报点评：业绩短期承压，看好制 造业复苏背景下机床需求回暖 2024 年 04 月 30 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,1 ...

2024 年第一季度报告 宁波海天精工股份有限公司 重要内容提示 第一季度财务报表是否经审计 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|-----------------|-------------------------------------| | 项目 | 本报告期 | 本报告期比上年同期增减 变动幅度 (%) | | 营业收入 | 756,464,418.12 | -3.41 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 130,453,587.65 | -3.67 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常 性损益的净利润 | 106,948,378.97 | -4.39 | | 经营活动产生的现金流量净额 | -189,909,738.75 | -129.02 | | 基本每股收益（元/股） | 0.2499 | -3.66 | | 稀释每股收益（元 /股） | 0.2499 | -3.66 | 证券代码：601882 证券简称：海天精工 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重 ...

⚫ 工业领域设备更新，10 年以上老旧机床更新换代催化行业需求 图 3：公司盈利能力指标 图 4：公司经营现金净流量（百万元） | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------| | | | | | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | | 3,323 | 4,062 | 4,740 | | 2,328 | 2,846 | 3,313 | | 26 | 32 | 37 | | | | | | 188 | 211 | 242 | | 40 | 48 | 55 | | 137 | 162 | 190 | | -11 | -12 | -20 | | -47 | -35 | -44 | | | | | | 64 | 65 | 71 | | | | | | 6 | 0 | 0 | | 18 | 17 | 22 | | | | | | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | | 650 | 820 | 969 | | 47 | 49 | 52 | | 1 | 3 | 5 | | 697 | 866 | 1,016 | | 87 | 103 | 123 | | 609 | ...

海天精工（601882.SH） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-----------------------------------------|-----------| | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 增持（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3,177 | 3,323 | 3,917 | 4,582 | 5,281 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 16.4 | 4.6 | 17.9 | 17.0 | 15.3 | | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 521 | 609 | 717 | 841 | 969 | 行业 | 机械 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | 40.3 | 17.1 | 17.6 | 17.4 | 15.2 | 2024 年 4 月 3 日收盘价（元） | 27.47 | | ROE （ ...

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 海天精工 沪深300 盈利能力稳中向好，持续加大研发投入 公司在数控机床领域技术积淀深厚，产品矩阵不断丰富。2023 年发布 BFH2030D 双五轴高速铣削中心，应用于大型一体化压铸件，适应新能源汽车 行业的高速加工需求；同时立式加工中心也迎来突破，推出 CFVⅡ系列高速立 式加工中心，有望持续受益国产替代趋势。针对海外市场，公司积极研发适应 各海外区域需求痛点的高性价比机型。公司在泰国、越南、印度及新加坡等潜 力较大市场设立子公司，进一步加快全球市场营销布局，充分发挥海天集团的 全球布局经验和协同效应，推进海外业务不断增长。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业收入 ( 百万元 ) | 3,177 | 3,323 ...

[Table_Page] 年报点评|通用设备 海外业务放量，盈利能力增长可观 盈利预测： [Table_Title] 海天精工（601882.SH） ⚫ 营收小幅增长，利润率提升可观。2023Q4 公司实现营业收入 8.16 亿 元，同比增长 0.65%，归母净利润 1.46 亿元，同比增长 11.47%，全 年营收及归母净利润分别增长 4.59%/17.06%。利润增速领先营收增速 代表公司整体利润率水平有所提高，全年毛利率提升 2.63pct 至 29.94%，净利率提升 1.95pct 至 18.34%，盈利能力增长可观。 ⚫ 各产品毛利率稳步提升，高毛利卧加销售高增。23 年公司主要产品毛 利率均有所提升，龙门毛利率+0.26pct，卧加毛利率+1.28pct，立加毛 利率+5.63pct，成本控制有效。产品结构方面，龙门与立加销售额分别 减少 6.29%/5.34%，毛利率较高的卧加销售额增长 48.30%。另外公司 还针对新能源汽车行业和海外市场研发高性价比机型。 ⚫ 海外业务快速放量，带来更多成长性。2023 年公司海外业务营收 5.94 亿元，同比增长 76.06%，毛利率 39.29%。同期 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2023-09-05 单季度来看，23Q4 营收 8.16 亿元，同比+0.65%；归母净利润 1.46 亿元，同比+11.47%；扣 非归母净利润 1.37 亿元，同比+7.36%。 事件评论 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 ⚫ 维持"买入"评级。公司或持续受益于政策机遇、自主可控、出海等结构性机会，预计 2024- 2026 年实现归母净利润 7.0 亿元、8.4 亿元、10.0 亿元，对应 PE 分别为 19x、16x、14x。 -32% -15% 2% 19% 2023/3 2023/7 2023/11 2024/3 海天精工 沪深300指数 资料来源：Wind 市场表现对比图(近 12 个月) 丨证券研究报告丨 1、制造业景气修复不及预期的风险。机床行业需求与制造业景气周期相关性强，当前 制造业需求处于弱改善阶段，催化国内机床行业需求触底回升。若后续制造业修复不及 预期，或对机床需求恢复造成不利影响并影响公司经营环境。 公司研究 | 点评报告 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 4 / 6 公司评级 | --- | --- | --- | -- ...