Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in high-end forming machine tools and ranks second in the domestic color sorting machine market, with a revenue CAGR of 24% from 2019 to 2024 [2][20] - The company has a significant first-mover advantage in the nuclear fusion sector, particularly in the manufacturing of vacuum chambers, and is well-positioned to benefit from the burgeoning fusion industry [4][5] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at 2.4 billion, 3.0 billion, and 3.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 113 million, 156 million, and 208 million yuan [5][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in high-end forming machine tools and intelligent sorting equipment, with a revenue breakdown in 2024 of approximately 57% from color sorting machines, 29% from hydraulic machines, and 13% from mechanical presses [2][26] - The company has been recognized as a "National Manufacturing Single Champion Demonstration Enterprise" and is a key player in the automotive hot forming equipment sector, competing with global leaders [20][63] Industry Position - The high-end forming machine tool market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5-7% from 2024 to 2030, with the total market size projected to reach approximately 1.59 to 1.96 trillion yuan by 2030 [2][63] - The color sorting machine market is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 4% from 2024 to 2031, with a market size of 7.17 billion yuan in 2024 [3] Nuclear Fusion Sector - The company is strategically positioned in the nuclear fusion industry, having participated in the preliminary research of vacuum chambers since 2021, and has secured contracts worth 209 million yuan for the BEST vacuum chamber project [4][5] - The total market space for global Tokamak devices is estimated to exceed 250 billion yuan, with significant demand expected to materialize in the next 3-5 years [4][59] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to increase from 2.07 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.76 billion yuan in 2027, with a corresponding improvement in net profit from a loss of 89 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 208 million yuan in 2027 [5][12] - The company’s P/E ratios are forecasted to decrease from 82 in 2025 to 44 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as profitability increases [5][12]

合锻智能(603011)今日涨停，全天换手率20.30%，成交额18.04亿元，振幅8.68%。龙虎榜数据显示，营 业部席位合计净买入1.50亿元。 上交所公开信息显示，当日该股因日涨幅偏离值达9.80%上榜，营业部席位合计净买入1.50亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，上榜的前五大买卖营业部合计成交4.42亿元，其中，买入成交额为2.96亿 元，卖出成交额为1.46亿元，合计净买入1.50亿元。 具体来看，今日上榜营业部中，第一大买入营业部为高盛(中国)证券有限责任公司上海浦东新区世纪大 道证券营业部，买入金额为7323.84万元，第一大卖出营业部为国泰海通证券股份有限公司总部，卖出 金额为4141.78万元。 近半年该股累计上榜龙虎榜19次，上榜次日股价平均涨1.83%，上榜后5日平均跌0.73%。 资金流向方面，今日该股主力资金净流入2.91亿元，其中，特大单净流入2.25亿元，大单资金净流入 6595.03万元。近5日主力资金净流入3.38亿元。 买二 开源证券股份有限公司西安西大街证券营业部 7068.13 买三 中信证券股份有限公司上海分公司 6138.00 买四 瑞银证券有限责任公司上海花园石桥 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Hezhuan Intelligent (603011) experienced a limit-up today, with a turnover rate of 20.30% and a transaction volume of 1.804 billion yuan, indicating strong market interest and activity [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's "Dragon and Tiger List" due to a price deviation of 9.80% [2]. - The stock has been on the Dragon and Tiger List 19 times in the past six months, with an average price increase of 1.83% the following day and an average decline of 0.73% over the next five days [3]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds today was 291 million yuan, with a significant inflow of 225 million yuan from large orders [3]. - Over the past five days, the net inflow of main funds totaled 338 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company reported a revenue of 982 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.23%, while net profit was 9.5131 million yuan, a decline of 11.39% year-on-year [3]. Group 4: Trading Details - The top buying brokerage was Goldman Sachs (China) Securities, with a purchase amount of 73.2384 million yuan, while the top selling brokerage was Guotai Junan Securities, with a selling amount of 41.4178 million yuan [2][3].

Market Performance - The specialized equipment sector increased by 0.81% on September 22, with Bai'ao Intelligent leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.58, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97, up 0.67% [1] Top Gainers - Bai'ao Intelligent (300836) closed at 56.41, up 20.00% with a trading volume of 94,100 shares and a transaction value of 486 million [1] - Lihexing (301013) closed at 30.50, up 14.62% with a trading volume of 855,800 shares and a transaction value of 2.507 billion [1] - Kaige Precision Machinery (301338) closed at 75.23, up 14.33% with a trading volume of 79,800 shares and a transaction value of 573 million [1] Other Notable Performers - Hezhuan Intelligent (603011) closed at 18.66, up 10.02% with a trading volume of 1,003,600 shares and a transaction value of 1.804 billion [1] - Jinggong Technology (002006) closed at 22.52, up 10.01% with a trading volume of 670,800 shares and a transaction value of 1.470 billion [1] - Yingxiongke (002837) closed at 81.88, up 9.99% with a trading volume of 604,300 shares and a transaction value of 4.837 billion [1] Market Flow - The specialized equipment sector saw a net inflow of 618 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 150 million [2] - The sector experienced a net outflow of 767 million from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Fund Flow - Yingweike (002837) had a net inflow of 111.7 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 78.9 million from speculative funds [3] - Hezhuan Intelligent (603011) saw a net inflow of 31.6 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 10.3 million from speculative funds [3] - Jinggong Technology (002006) had a net inflow of 20 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 61.1 million from speculative funds [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on September 22, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.06%, driven by gains in sectors such as computer hardware and electronic components, while the restaurant and tourism sectors faced declines [1] - The machine tool sector demonstrated strength, with the machine tool ETF (159663) increasing by 0.66%, and notable individual stock performances included Weichuang Electric rising by 8.15%, Dazhu Laser by 6.88%, and Hezhu Intelligent by 5.13% [1] Group 2 - According to Wind data, the production of metal cutting machine tools in China is projected to reach approximately 71,000 units by August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, although the growth rate has decreased by 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - From January to August, the cumulative production of machine tools was about 564,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, with a month-on-month growth rate increase of 0.7 percentage points [3] - The production of industrial robots in China is expected to be around 64,000 units by August 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4% [3] - Xiangcai Securities reported that the manufacturing PMI in China rose by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4% in August, indicating improvements in production, new orders, and backlogged orders, suggesting a recovery in supply and demand within the manufacturing sector [3] - The machine tool ETF (159663) closely tracks the China Machine Tool Index, which encompasses key areas of high-end equipment manufacturing, including laser equipment, machine tools, robots, and industrial control equipment, highlighting the emphasis on innovation and industrial upgrading [3]

Industry Insights - Zhang Jie, an academician from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, announced plans to build the first 50 Hz, 1 million kW laser fusion power plant in Shanghai by around 2045, which is expected to provide electricity for a city with a population of 2 million [1] - The fusion energy sector is projected to drive significant advancements in human civilization, with the potential to create a trillion-yuan industry chain encompassing upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors [1] - Under the guidance of China's Atomic Energy Law and top-level industry policies, the nuclear fusion industry is experiencing rapid development, with both state-owned and private capital accelerating the transition from laboratory research to commercialization [1] Company Developments - Hezhong Intelligent has participated in the pre-research work for the manufacturing of core components such as fusion reactors, vacuum chambers, and filters, and has co-founded the Fusion Industry Alliance, serving as a vice-chairman unit [2] - Yongding Co., Ltd. has applied high-temperature superconducting materials in various fields, including superconducting induction heating, single crystal growth, controllable nuclear fusion magnets, and superconducting power equipment [2]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investment banks such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS are showing interest in a Chinese high-end manufacturing company, Hezhuan ZN, despite its recent decline in profits, indicating potential underlying value and future growth opportunities [1][2][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 9.51 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, which raises questions about its current performance [5]. - Inventory reached a historical high of 1.367 billion, increasing by 13% year-on-year, suggesting proactive stockpiling for anticipated orders rather than unsold products [7]. - The accounts receivable turnover days improved to 129 days, a 20% acceleration, indicating faster cash collection from customers [5][9]. - Cash received from sales amounted to 1.119 billion, a 12% increase, surpassing revenue, which reflects high-quality income generation [9][10]. Group 2: Strategic Insights - The interest from foreign investors is driven by the belief in the irreversible future of high-end manufacturing in China, rather than short-term profit figures [6]. - The company is positioned in a favorable macroeconomic environment that supports high-end manufacturing and new productivity initiatives [9]. - Hezhuan ZN is recognized as a leader in the domestic forming machine tool sector and has made breakthroughs in manufacturing core components for fusion reactors, opening opportunities in advanced equipment manufacturing [9][11]. Group 3: Future Growth Potential - The company is in a transitional phase, balancing traditional business stability with investments in new technologies, which may lead to future profit growth [10]. - The national push for large-scale equipment upgrades is expected to generate significant orders for the company's core products [11]. - Breakthroughs in new materials and fields, such as fusion reactor components, could lead to valuation restructuring and expansion into other high-end sectors [11]. - The growth of intelligent sorting equipment in various industries provides a stable growth trajectory for the company [11].

Company Overview - Hefei HuoDuan Intelligent Manufacturing Co., Ltd. was established on September 7, 1997, and listed on November 7, 2014. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of forging equipment and intelligent detection and sorting equipment [2] - The main business revenue composition includes: color sorting machines 49.80%, hydraulic presses 30.93%, mechanical presses 14.87%, and others 3.62% [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders is 70,900, a decrease of 11.09% from the previous period, with an average of 6,975 circulating shares per person, an increase of 12.47% [2] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 982 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.23%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.51 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.39% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 157 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the past three years [3] Stock Performance - On September 17, the stock price of HuoDuan Intelligent fell by 2.04%, trading at 16.82 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 8.316 billion yuan [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 145.55%, with a decline of 1.81% over the last five trading days, and increases of 5.72% and 8.66% over the last 20 and 60 days, respectively [1] - The company has appeared on the trading leaderboard 19 times this year, with the most recent appearance on June 19, where it recorded a net buy of -125 million yuan [1] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the fourth largest circulating shareholder is Huaxia High-end Manufacturing Mixed A, holding 4.6428 million shares, an increase of 900 shares from the previous period. Huaxia Leading Stock is the tenth largest shareholder, holding 2 million shares as a new shareholder [3]

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment sector is rated as "Outperform" compared to the market, with a weekly increase of 3.52% against the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.38% [2][11]. Core Insights - The mechanical equipment sector has shown strong performance, particularly in laser equipment, which increased by 10.13% [2][11]. - The overall PE-TTM valuation for the mechanical equipment sector rose by 3.43%, with the highest performing sub-sectors being laser equipment (+10.53%), robotics (+7.21%), and industrial control equipment (+6.28%) [19][18]. - The report highlights significant developments in humanoid robots entering industrial applications, particularly in the semiconductor display industry, with a notable order of nearly 500 million yuan for deployment in various operations [5][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The mechanical equipment sector ranked 7th out of 31 in the Shenwan industry rankings for the week [2][11]. - The sector's PE-TTM is currently at 37.1x, with the robotics sub-sector leading at 199.9x [18][19]. Key Developments - Major companies are advancing in product cost reduction and channel expansion, particularly in the robotics sector, with recommendations to focus on core component suppliers like 德昌电机控股 and 中大力德 [4]. - The advanced packaging industry is expected to benefit significantly from high demand for key equipment, with companies like 盛美上海 and 长川科技 highlighted for their growth potential [4]. - The report notes the acceleration of nuclear fusion engineering, with key technology demands expected to enhance industry activity, recommending关注西部超导 and 合锻智能 [4]. Company Announcements - 拓荆科技 plans to raise up to 46 billion yuan for the construction of a high-end semiconductor equipment industrialization base and a cutting-edge technology R&D center [27]. - The report mentions significant contracts and collaborations, including a 2.35 billion yuan industrial service contract signed by 博实股份 [29] and advancements in carbon-silicon technology by 晶盛机电 [31].

Overview - The rapid development of industries such as automotive, aerospace, and new energy equipment in China has led to a continuous increase in demand for various forgings, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, which has a strong demand for high-precision and high-efficiency forgings [1][9] - The forging press industry in China is expected to reach a market size of 34.073 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.14% [1][10] Market Policies - The Chinese government has issued several policies to support the development of the forging equipment industry, including guidelines for high-quality development, growth stabilization plans, and action plans for equipment updates and environmental protection [4][5] Industry Chain - The upstream of the forging press industry includes suppliers of raw materials such as steel, aluminum, and copper, as well as key component suppliers like sensors and hydraulic systems. The midstream consists of forging press manufacturers, while the downstream includes various high-end manufacturing sectors such as automotive, aerospace, and engineering machinery [6][7] Development History - The forging press industry in China has evolved from a weak foundation in the early years to a competitive sector with significant technological advancements. The industry has seen a focus on innovation and quality improvement since 2011, with many outdated enterprises being eliminated or restructured [3][4] Competitive Landscape - The forging press industry is characterized by high entry barriers and market concentration, with leading companies such as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Deyang Heavy Equipment, and Hefei Hohhot Intelligent Manufacturing dominating the market [10][11] - In 2024, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group is projected to achieve a total revenue of 12.670 billion yuan, with 422 million yuan from forging and extrusion equipment, accounting for 3.33% of total revenue [11][12] Future Trends - The forging press industry is expected to integrate technologies such as IoT and artificial intelligence, enhancing automation and real-time monitoring capabilities. Additionally, there will be a stronger emphasis on green development, focusing on energy-saving technologies and environmentally friendly materials to meet stricter environmental standards [14][15]