证券代码：603011 证券简称：合锻智能 合肥合锻智能制造股份有限公司 编号：2025-001 | 投资者关系 | □特定对象调研 □业绩说明会 | □分析师会议 | □媒体采访 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 活动类别 | □新闻发布会 ☑其他 | □路演活动 | ☑现场参观 | | | 民生证券、光大证券、富国基金、招商证券、中国人保、岱熹投 | | | | | 资、博云创业投资、天风证券、华泰证券、华西证券、国泰君安、 | | | | | 华福证券、华夏基金、上海证券、广发证券、前海开源基金、汇 | | | | | 添富基金、申万菱信、蜂巢基金、中景润控股、中国人寿资产、 | | | | 参与单位名 | 中金公司、国海证券、太平基金、中欧基金、宝盈基金、安信基 | | | | 称 | 金、华源证券、南方基金、平安养老保险、国盛证券、财通证券、 | | | | | 交银施罗德基金、华泰基金、国寿安保基金、淡水泉基金、浦银 | | | | | 安盛基金、开源证券、华鑫证券、方正证券、东北证券、浙商证 | | | | | 券、拾贝投资、冲积资产、西部证券、长江证券、国泰基金等（排 ...

Core Insights - The company has made significant breakthroughs in the manufacturing of core components for fusion reactors, focusing on vacuum chamber manufacturing processes since 2021 [1] - In 2024, the company won a bid for the BEST vacuum chamber project from Fusion New Energy (Anhui) Co., Ltd., with a total bid amount of 209 million [1] - The company has conducted over 50 experiments related to vacuum chamber forming, processing, welding, non-destructive testing, and measurement [1] Breakthrough Achievements - The company has resolved issues related to the precision control of hyperbolic thick plate forming, large rebound, and phase changes due to deformation during the forming process, which led to an increase in ferrite [1] - Significant progress has been made in electron beam welding of thick-walled austenitic stainless steel [1] - Advanced non-destructive testing techniques, such as coarse-grained weld seam array ultrasound, have been developed [1]

Group 1 - The controlled nuclear fusion concept sector experienced a decline of 4.07%, ranking among the top declines in concept sectors, with major stocks like Hezhong Intelligent hitting the limit down [1][2] - Within the controlled nuclear fusion sector, 57 stocks saw net outflows of main funds, totaling 2.774 billion yuan, with Hezhong Intelligent leading the outflow at 314.47 million yuan [2][4] - The top gainers in the sector included Zhongyou Engineering and *ST Xinyan, which rose by 4.12% and 1.81% respectively [1][4] Group 2 - The controlled nuclear fusion sector was among the worst performers today, alongside superconducting concepts and nuclear pollution prevention, which also saw significant declines [2][3] - The main funds saw a net inflow into stocks like Xue Ren Co., Bai Li Electric, and Zhongyou Engineering, with inflows of 39.50 million yuan, 23.15 million yuan, and 18.57 million yuan respectively [2][4] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Hezhong Intelligent, Xuguang Electronics, and Jingda Co., with outflows of 314.47 million yuan, 247.22 million yuan, and 220.13 million yuan respectively [2][3]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at approximately 3362 points, down by 0.79%. The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell more significantly, down by 1.21% and 1.36% respectively, indicating a low market sentiment with over 4600 stocks declining [1]. Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector saw a significant surge, with stocks like Shouhua Gas hitting the daily limit up, driven by heightened tensions in the Middle East following Israel's military actions against Iran, raising concerns over potential oil supply disruptions. International oil prices spiked, with WTI crude oil surpassing $76 per barrel, marking a new high for the year [3]. - Despite the short-term volatility in oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that global oil supply remains adequate, suggesting that sustained price surges are unlikely. Companies with strong production capabilities and cost control, such as CNOOC, are recommended for long-term investment [3]. Short Drama Concept - The short drama segment showed localized strength, with companies like Baina Qiancheng and Ciweng Media reaching their daily limits. This growth is attributed to Tencent's launch of a "short drama" mini-program, which has attracted a large user base through a free viewing model, alongside algorithmic recommendations from platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [4]. - The short drama market caters to modern consumers' fragmented entertainment needs, with episodes lasting 1-3 minutes. The business model is evolving from paid content to ad monetization and integration with gaming and e-commerce, indicating significant growth potential. However, the market faces challenges due to content homogenization, making companies with strong IP reserves and production capabilities, such as Zhongwen Online, more valuable in the long run [4]. Other Sectors - The controlled nuclear fusion concept faced a collective downturn, with companies like Xuguang Electronics and Hezhu Intelligent hitting their daily limits. This sector had previously seen rapid gains, leading to profit-taking as market sentiment cooled. While the long-term prospects for controlled nuclear fusion are promising, significant technological breakthroughs and commercialization are expected to take time, with projections extending beyond 2035 [4]. - The diversified financial and superconducting sectors also underperformed, with companies like Ruida Futures and Nanhua Futures experiencing notable declines. This trend is attributed to a decrease in overall market risk appetite, leading to capital outflows from these high-volatility sectors. However, the long-term value of leading brokerage and futures firms remains intact, especially with ongoing capital market reforms [5]. Investment Perspective - The investment landscape is characterized as a marathon rather than a sprint, emphasizing the importance of focusing on fundamentals and long-term trends despite short-term market adjustments. The oil and gas sector benefits from global energy transitions, while the short drama concept aligns with consumer upgrade trends. There may also be opportunities in sectors experiencing corrections, suggesting a patient, value-driven investment approach [6].

Group 1 - The three major indices experienced a significant adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.79%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.21%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.36%. Over 600 stocks rose, with a total trading volume of approximately 1.25 trillion yuan [2] - Oil and gas concept stocks surged, with Shouhua Gas rising by 20%, Tongyuan Petroleum up over 11%, and other companies like Junyou Co., Zhongman Petroleum, and CNOOC Services also seeing gains. The rise in international oil prices is attributed to the conflict between Iran and Israel, with potential U.S. intervention leading to further price increases [2] - The film and television industry saw strong performance, with companies like Baina Qiancheng and Ciweng Media rising by 20% and 10% respectively. Baina Qiancheng signed a film authorization contract worth 372 million yuan, which is expected to significantly boost its 2025 performance [2] Group 2 - The semiconductor and PCB sectors also showed strength, with Juxin Technology rising by 13.8% and Nord Shares by 10%. A recent report from CITIC Securities highlighted the challenges in obtaining advanced manufacturing and packaging capacity overseas, indicating a strong demand and weak supply situation in the domestic semiconductor industry [3] - The previously popular sectors such as controlled nuclear fusion, rare earth permanent magnets, and digital currency saw declines, with companies like Hezhong Intelligent and Hailian Jinhui dropping by 10% and over 7% respectively [3][4] - Other sectors including non-ferrous metals, healthcare, real estate, and securities also weakened, with companies like Dongfang Caifu and Vanke A experiencing declines [4]

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a decline, with the ChiNext Index dropping by 1.1% and over 4600 stocks in the market showing negative performance [1][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.86%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.01%, and the North China 50 Index also saw a nearly 1% drop, with trading volume exceeding 800 billion, an increase of over 40 billion compared to the previous day [3] Economic Factors - Recent macroeconomic data has shown signs of pressure, leading to hesitance in market recovery expectations [3] - Popular sectors such as AI and weight-loss drugs are experiencing corrections, prompting funds to shift towards defensive sectors [3] - External market instability has also contributed to negative sentiment in the domestic market [3] Sector Performance - Solid-state batteries, PCB, and oil sectors saw gains, with stocks like Nord and Xiangtan Electric achieving limit-up [3] - The solid-state battery sector is gaining attention due to recent technological breakthroughs and a reasonable valuation after previous adjustments in the new energy sector [3] - The oil sector's rise may be linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the potential for U.S. actions against Iran, leading to short-term oil price volatility [3] Declining Sectors - The nuclear fusion, military, and weight-loss drug sectors faced significant declines, with Changshan Pharmaceutical hitting the limit down and Hanyu Pharmaceutical dropping over 10% [4] - The military sector's adjustment is attributed to a lack of new catalysts, leading to fund withdrawals [4] - The nuclear power sector saw stocks like Hezhan Intelligent and China Nuclear Technology hitting the limit down, possibly due to negative news from specific companies [4] Investment Strategy - In a broad market decline, it is essential to maintain a calm mindset and focus on identifying quality stocks [4] - Long-term investors should prioritize company fundamentals and industry prospects over short-term price fluctuations [4] - The solid-state battery sector is highlighted as a promising long-term investment, while caution is advised in the weight-loss drug sector due to speculative trading [4]

Summary of the Conference Call for 合锻智能 Company Overview - 合锻智能 is a leading enterprise in the high-end forming machine tool equipment industry in China, benefiting from the lightweight trend in the new energy vehicle sector, with expected growth in hot forming and composite material product orders, aiming to reverse last year's losses and achieve profitability [2][5][8]. Industry Insights - The company has formed a duopoly in the color sorting machine sector with 美亚光电, holding a global market share of approximately 20 billion RMB, with about 8 billion RMB in the domestic market [2][9]. - The company is confident in maintaining a growth rate of 10%-20% post-strategic adjustments in 2025, with a positive export trend to countries like India, Turkey, and Vietnam [2][5][10]. Key Projects and Developments - 合锻智能 has secured an order for a nuclear fusion vacuum chamber worth approximately 210 million RMB, with the first batch of gravity supports already delivered and the main body expected to be partially delivered in 2025 [2][11]. - The company has established a partnership with the Chinese Academy of Sciences to address high technical barriers in vacuum chamber manufacturing, focusing on welding deformation control as a significant challenge [4][12]. Strategic Direction - In 2025, 合锻智能 plans to expand in multiple business segments, prioritizing Southeast Asia and Central Europe through localized agents and service networks to reduce operational costs [5][8]. - The company aims to enhance brand exposure through international exhibitions and social media, providing differentiated solutions for various regions [5][8]. Research and Development - 合锻智能 has invested significantly in R&D, particularly in the nuclear fusion sector, with a focus on manufacturing processes, material selection, and structural design to meet extreme conditions [13][20]. - The company has established a strategic cooperation agreement with the Shanghai Li Zhengdao Research Institute to build a cutting-edge manufacturing laboratory, aiming to expand its potential in the nuclear energy and scientific device sectors [20][21]. Competitive Advantages - As a national-level manufacturing champion, 合锻智能 has revised multiple national and industry standards and participated in significant national science and technology projects, reinforcing its competitive edge in niche markets [6][7]. - The company’s strategic acquisitions, such as the German brand 劳法尔, are aimed at deepening its presence in the European market and enhancing its competitiveness in high-end sectors like automotive and home appliances [2][8]. Market Challenges - The company acknowledges the need to adapt to international market changes and currency fluctuations, which may impact its export business [5][10]. - The color sorting machine sector faces rapid iteration cycles, with replacement periods of 2 to 5 years, necessitating continuous innovation to stay competitive [9][10]. Conclusion - 合锻智能 is positioned to leverage its technological advancements and strategic partnerships to capitalize on growth opportunities in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the high-end manufacturing and nuclear fusion sectors [2][21].

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - The nuclear fusion energy sector in China is experiencing significant investment, projected to reach 20 billion yuan annually by 2028, with total investments potentially exceeding 200 billion yuan if demonstration projects are included, which could raise annual investments to 40 billion yuan. This is relatively small compared to traditional nuclear power investments, which exceed 100 billion yuan annually [2][3]. Company Profile: 合锻智能 (Hezhong Intelligent) - Hezhong Intelligent is a leading enterprise in the nuclear fusion industry, with its vacuum chamber and in-vessel components accounting for approximately 10% of the total device value. The company is expected to generate 4 billion yuan in revenue and 1 billion yuan in net profit from the anticipated 40 billion yuan annual investment in the sector [2][4][6]. - The company is involved in significant projects such as EAST renovation, Krafton, and BEST, and is expected to return to normal profitability by 2025, with profits gradually increasing in the following years [5][18]. Key Insights and Arguments - The vacuum chamber is a critical component of the Tokamak device, providing a stable operating environment for plasma and acting as a safety barrier. Its value contribution is about 8%, while in-vessel components increase this to 25% [2][7]. - The materials used in nuclear fusion devices include advanced metals and non-metals, such as low-activation ferritic-martensitic steel and high-entropy alloys, aimed at enhancing thermal conductivity and heat resistance [8]. - The DIB (Divertor Inner Wall) plays a crucial role in preventing impurity contamination of the plasma and dissipating heat generated by plasma radiation, typically using beryllium or tungsten as facing materials [9]. Market Position and Valuation - Hezhong Intelligent is currently valued at approximately 50 times its earnings, suggesting a market capitalization of around 50 billion yuan. The potential for market growth is significant, with estimates indicating a market cap could reach 250 billion yuan by 2027-2028 [6][25]. - The company’s market share in the nuclear fusion sector is expected to be around 10%, translating to projected revenues of 4 billion yuan and a net profit of 1 billion yuan, with a valuation of 50 times earnings [25]. Additional Important Information - The shielding modules in nuclear fusion devices are designed to protect against neutron radiation and manage heat loads, with significant components being manufactured by both domestic and international suppliers [11][13]. - The overall bidding situation for nuclear fusion components is robust, with significant tenders expected throughout 2025, indicating a healthy market environment for Hezhong Intelligent and its peers [22][23]. - The establishment of the Fusion New Energy Company, backed by the Hefei government and state-owned enterprises, is a key player in advancing nuclear fusion technology and industry development [19]. Conclusion - Hezhong Intelligent is positioned as a key player in the nuclear fusion industry, with strong growth potential driven by increasing investments and participation in major projects. The company's strategic focus on advanced materials and component manufacturing aligns well with the industry's future demands, making it a compelling investment opportunity.

智通财经6月9日电，午后核电板块再度活跃，合锻智能反包涨停，此前旭光电子涨停，国光电器、中洲 特材、永鼎股份、哈焊华通等快速跟涨。消息面上，机构预测，"十五五"期间，每年新增核电设备市场 规模约千亿，2023-2035年CAGR约7%。我国核电设备的国产替代进程正在加速，三代和四代核电技术 的国产化率部分领域已超过90%。 核电板块再度活跃 合锻智能午后涨停 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading enterprise in the high-end forming machine tool and intelligent sorting equipment industry, with a focus on the nuclear fusion sector, which is expected to drive its growth trajectory in the coming years [1][3]. Group 1: Nuclear Fusion Industry Developments - The company has accelerated its involvement in nuclear fusion projects, winning contracts for key components such as vacuum chambers and gravity supports, indicating a strong order pipeline [1][2]. - The domestic nuclear fusion industry is projected to grow rapidly, with significant projects like CFEDR and various hybrid reactors expected to commence in the near future, positioning the company to benefit from this growth [2][3]. - Global nuclear fusion initiatives, including the ITER project and private sector efforts in the U.S. and Japan, highlight the increasing international focus on fusion energy, which may create additional opportunities for the company [2][3]. Group 2: Core Business Performance - The company is recognized as a champion in the forming machine tool sector, with products utilized across various industries including automotive, aerospace, and defense, showing a robust recovery in its core business [3][4]. - The hydraulic press segment has seen significant advancements, particularly in applications related to new energy vehicles, contributing to an increase in market share [3][4]. - The mechanical press segment is experiencing growth due to rising demand from the new energy vehicle sector and domestic brands, with a notable increase in orders for high-end automated pressure machines [4]. Group 3: Intelligent Sorting Equipment - The company is a pioneer in the optical sorting equipment market, with a strong focus on applications in food safety and recycling, leading to a substantial increase in revenue from this segment [4]. - The revenue from the color sorting machine business is projected to grow significantly, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 26.2% from 2021 to 2024 [4]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 24.8 billion, 28.4 billion, and 33.5 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of 0.37 billion, 1.34 billion, and 2.58 billion [5]. - The current valuation reflects the early-stage development of the nuclear fusion industry, suggesting substantial future growth potential [5][6].