Core Viewpoint - Solid growth in core business is essential for companies to navigate through economic cycles [1] Performance Growth Highlights - **XianDao Intelligent (300450)**: Expected net profit of 150 million to 180 million, a year-on-year increase of 424.29% to 529.15% due to recovery in global battery demand and internal digital transformation [6] - **YongChuang Intelligent (603901)**: Expected net profit of 12.8 million to 15.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 721.57% to 894.86% driven by improved delivery efficiency and product structure optimization [7] - **DaoShi Technology (300409)**: Expected net profit growth of 206.01% to 269.76% due to increased production capacity and recovery in cobalt prices [8] - **FuDa Alloy (603049)**: Expected net profit growth of 119.14% to 219.95% supported by stable demand in power equipment and new energy sectors [9] - **ZhaoJin Gold (000506)**: Expected net profit of 12.2 million to 18.2 million, a turnaround from a loss of 127 million last year, driven by increased production and rising gold prices [10] - **SiTeWei (688213)**: Expected net profit of 97.635 million to 103.053 million, a year-on-year increase of 149% to 162% due to increased shipments of smartphone camera products [11] - **ZhongWei Semiconductor (688380)**: Expected net profit of around 28.4 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 107.55% due to new product launches [12] - **Hunan Gold (002155)**: Expected net profit of 127 million to 160.8 million, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 90% driven by rising sales prices [13] - **NanFang Precision (002553)**: Expected net profit of 30 million to 37 million, a year-on-year increase of 1,130% to 1,417% due to investment project evaluations [14] - **Shanghai YiZhong (688091)**: Expected net profit of 6 million to 7 million, a year-on-year increase of 760.18% to 903.54% due to inclusion in the national medical insurance directory [15] - **RunTu Co., Ltd. (002440)**: Expected net profit of 60 million to 70 million, a year-on-year increase of 181.05% to 227.89% driven by improved operating profits [16] Major Performance Changes - **HeFu China (603122)**: Expected net loss of 36 million to 25 million, a shift from profit due to changes in the macro environment and industry policies [17] - **ChangJiu Logistics (603569)**: Expected net loss of 75 million to 50 million, a shift from profit due to asset impairment and operational challenges [18] - **ZhiChun Technology (603690)**: Expected net loss of 45 million to 30 million, a shift from profit due to increased competition and rising R&D costs [19] - **BaYi Steel (600581)**: Expected net loss of 205 million to 185 million, a shift from profit due to supply-demand imbalance in the steel industry [20] - **AoKeMa (600336)**: Expected net loss of 22 million to 17 million, a shift from profit due to increased competition in the home appliance sector [21] - **HuiDa Sanitary Ware (603385)**: Expected net loss of 21.6 million to 18 million, a shift from profit due to market demand decline [22] - **DongFeng Co. (600006)**: Expected net loss of 48 million to 39 million, a shift from profit due to competitive pressures in the commercial vehicle market [23] Industry Trend Analysis - **High Growth Industries**: Stable demand in new energy sectors benefits companies like FuDa Alloy [24] - **Performance Changes in Industries**: - New energy and lithium battery equipment sectors are experiencing explosive growth [25] - Gold and precious metals sectors are seeing significant profit improvements due to high prices [26] - Semiconductor and automotive electronics are benefiting from trends in smart vehicles [27] - Medical circulation is under pressure from cost control policies [28] - Logistics and transportation are facing profitability challenges due to falling prices [29] - Semiconductor equipment is experiencing short-term performance declines due to cyclical fluctuations [30] - Traditional manufacturing sectors like steel and home appliances are facing intensified competition [31]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongce Rubber experienced a stock price increase of 5.58% on January 19, with a trading volume of 560 million yuan, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1]. Financing Summary - On January 19, Zhongce Rubber had a financing buy amount of 32.25 million yuan and a financing repayment of 44.62 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 12.37 million yuan [1]. - As of January 19, the total financing and securities lending balance for Zhongce Rubber was 248 million yuan, which represents 4.88% of its circulating market value [1]. - The company had no shares repaid in securities lending on January 19, with 200 shares sold, amounting to 11,600 yuan at the closing price, and a remaining securities lending balance of 6,390 yuan [1]. Company Performance - Zhongce Rubber reported a revenue of 33.683 billion yuan for the period from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.98% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 3.513 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.30% [1]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Zhongce Rubber was 38,300, a decrease of 46.47% compared to the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 86.82% to 2,217 shares [1]. Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Zhongce Rubber has distributed a total of 1.137 billion yuan in dividends [2]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the seventh largest circulating shareholder of Zhongce Rubber was the Xingquan Trend Investment Mixed Fund (LOF), which holds 856,200 shares as a new shareholder [2].

Group 1 - Zhongce Rubber experienced a 5.16% increase in stock price, reaching 57.85 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 444 million CNY and a turnover rate of 8.90%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 50.589 billion CNY [1] - Zhongce Rubber Group Co., Ltd. is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, established on June 12, 1992, and is primarily engaged in the processing and manufacturing of tires and rubber products [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, Bosera Fund has one fund heavily invested in Zhongce Rubber. The Bosera Xinxing One-Year Holding Period Mixed A Fund (017769) held 169 shares, ranking as the tenth largest holding. The estimated floating profit today is approximately 479.96 CNY [2] - The Bosera Xinxing One-Year Holding Period Mixed A Fund (017769) was established on March 8, 2023, with a latest scale of 98.6416 million CNY. Year-to-date return is 2.37%, ranking 6057 out of 9009 in its category; the one-year return is 25.97%, ranking 4752 out of 8164; and the return since inception is 21.9% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of Bosera Xinxing One-Year Holding Period Mixed A Fund (017769) is Guo Jun, who has a cumulative tenure of 21 years and 293 days. The total asset scale of the fund is 70.648 billion CNY, with the best fund return during his tenure being 322.41% and the worst being -6.17% [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zhongce Rubber has experienced a continuous decline in stock price, dropping 0.76% to 53.73 CNY per share, with a total market value of 46.986 billion CNY and a cumulative decline of 5.54% over six days [1] - Zhongce Rubber Group Co., Ltd. is located in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and was established on June 12, 1992. The company specializes in the processing and manufacturing of tires and rubber products [1] - The trading volume for Zhongce Rubber was 262 million CNY, with a turnover rate of 5.54% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under China Merchants Fund has a significant position in Zhongce Rubber, holding 543 shares of the stock, which represents 0.0006% of the circulating shares [2] - The fund, China Merchants CSI 300 Real Estate Equal Weight Index A (161721), has seen a floating loss of approximately 222.63 CNY today and a cumulative floating loss of 1710.45 CNY during the six-day decline [2] - The fund was established on January 1, 2021, with a current scale of 434 million CNY, and has reported a year-to-date return of 1.04% and a one-year loss of 5.92% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [11] Core Viewpoints - The EU's anti-dumping measures against Chinese semi-steel tires are expected to be implemented by mid-2026, potentially leading to a demand shift of approximately 8.7 million units overseas. Current Chinese tire manufacturers have an overseas semi-steel tire capacity of only 17.6 million units per year, which is insufficient to meet the combined demand of approximately 25.1 million units from Europe and the US [3][10][76] - The semi-steel tire segment is characterized by strong consumer attributes, making it the most profitable category in the tire industry. The global demand for semi-steel tires is around 1.6 billion units annually, with an average price of $71 per tire, resulting in a market size of $114 billion [6][25] - Chinese semi-steel tire production capacity is projected to reach 82 million units per year by 2024, with an annual output of approximately 64 million units, accounting for about 40% of global supply. Exports constitute about 52% of China's semi-steel tire production [7][41] Summary by Sections EU Anti-Dumping Measures - The EU has initiated anti-dumping and countervailing investigations against Chinese semi-steel tires, with a final decision expected by June 2026. In 2024, the EU is projected to consume approximately 400 million semi-steel tires, with 90 million units imported from China, representing 60% of non-EU imports [8][59][60] Overseas Expansion of Chinese Tire Companies - Chinese tire manufacturers are increasingly establishing overseas production capacities, with approximately 22.2 million units per year already operational and an additional 28.7 million units planned. The EU's anti-dumping measures are expected to create a capacity gap that will take time to fill [9][68] - The US imports about 164 million semi-steel tires annually, with significant competition expected between the EU and the US for semi-steel tire capacity. The demand from the EU for 8.7 million units per year is likely to shift from China to overseas production [9][71] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities arising from both volume and price increases. Companies with greater marginal increases in overseas capacity and a higher proportion of total capacity in overseas production are expected to benefit more. Recommended companies include Senqilin, Sailun Tire, Zhongce Rubber, and Linglong Tire [10][76]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Zhongce Rubber (603049) has established production bases in Thailand and Indonesia, focusing primarily on export sales [1] Group 2 - The company currently operates two overseas production bases that are already in operation [1] - Both production bases are primarily oriented towards export sales [1]

Group 1 - The report indicates that while the number of IPOs and fundraising amounts in 2025 increased compared to 2024, the overall profitability of offline subscription has reached a new low since 2019, with A1/B class products yielding only 2.7% and 2.4% respectively [4][10][5] - In 2025, 87 new stocks were issued in the A-share market, raising a total of 1,235 billion yuan, with 64% of the new stocks having an initial fundraising scale of less than 1 billion yuan [19][20][27] - The average initial price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for new stocks in 2025 was 23x, marking a new low since 2019, with an average discount of 39% compared to comparable companies [36][34][36] Group 2 - The report forecasts a rebound in offline subscription profitability in 2026, with expected yields for A1/B class products projected to be 4.05% and 3.23% respectively, driven by an increase in the number of IPOs and stable pricing [4][10][4] - The report highlights that the strategic allocation of new stocks is expected to remain attractive in 2026, with an increase in external strategic investors and a significant average return on unlocked shares [4][4][4] - The report notes that the number of offline inquiry products has significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 18%, indicating a heightened interest in new stock subscriptions [64][64][64]

Core Insights - The water supply and drainage valve industry plays a crucial role in China's infrastructure development, directly impacting the stability of fluid transport systems and water resource safety [1][10] - The market size of China's water supply and drainage valve industry is projected to reach 31.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [1][10] - The industry is expected to continue growing due to advancements in urbanization, industrial automation, and smart technology [1][10] Industry Overview - Water supply and drainage valves are essential for controlling flow and water levels in various applications, including domestic water supply, fire protection systems, and industrial water supply [3] - The industry has evolved from relying on foreign technology in the 1950s to achieving significant technological advancements and market competitiveness by the 21st century [4][3] Market Dynamics - The upstream of the valve industry includes raw materials such as cast iron, carbon steel, stainless steel, and various alloys, while the downstream applications encompass urban water supply systems, wastewater treatment, and fire protection systems [6] - The demand for valves is closely tied to investments in infrastructure, which are expected to maintain high growth rates [6] Key Statistics - In 2024, China's total water supply is expected to reach 5,928 billion cubic meters, with a year-on-year growth of 0.36% [8] - The number of wastewater treatment plants in China is projected to reach 15,259, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.37% [8] - The daily treatment capacity of urban wastewater is expected to be 24,407 million cubic meters, with a growth of 3.03% [8] Industry Trends - The future of the valve industry is leaning towards smart technology integration, enabling valves to become intelligent nodes within water management systems [11] - There is an anticipated increase in demand for large-diameter valves due to national water network projects and modern water treatment facilities [14] - The domestic production rate of high-performance valves is expected to rise, focusing on specialized applications such as seawater desalination and industrial wastewater treatment [15] Key Companies - Notable companies in the industry include Crown Dragon Energy Saving, Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes, and Wuhan Dayu Valve Co., among others [2][11] - Crown Dragon Energy Saving specializes in water-saving valve products and has a significant market presence in water conservancy projects [11]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongce Rubber experienced a slight increase of 0.95% in stock price on December 30, with a trading volume of 184 million yuan, indicating active market participation [1] Financing Summary - On December 30, Zhongce Rubber had a financing buy amount of 29.30 million yuan and a financing repayment of 43.02 million yuan, resulting in a net financing buy of -13.72 million yuan [1] - The total financing and securities lending balance for Zhongce Rubber reached 244 million yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 4.92% of the circulating market value [1] - No shares were repaid or sold in the securities lending segment on December 30, with a remaining securities lending balance of 3.96 million yuan [1] Company Profile - Zhongce Rubber Group Co., Ltd. is located in Qiantang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, and was established on June 12, 1992, with a listing date set for June 5, 2025 [1] - The company specializes in the processing and manufacturing of tires and rubber products [1] Financial Performance - As of September 30, Zhongce Rubber reported a revenue of 33.68 billion yuan for the period from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.98% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.51 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.30% [1] - The company has distributed a total of 1.14 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Zhongce Rubber had 38,300 shareholders, a decrease of 46.47% from the previous period, with an average of 2,217 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 86.82% [1] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, XINGQUAN Trend Investment Mixed Fund (LOF) is the seventh largest shareholder, having newly acquired 856,200 shares [2]

Group 1 - Zhongce Rubber's stock increased by 1.05%, reaching 56.65 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 44.66 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.91%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 49.54 billion CNY [1] - Zhongce Rubber Group Co., Ltd. is located in Qiantang District, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, established on June 12, 1992, and listed on June 5, 2025. The company's main business involves the processing and manufacturing of tires and rubber products [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten heavy positions of funds, one fund under Wanji Fund holds a significant position in Zhongce Rubber. The Wanji Interconnection China Advantage Quantitative Strategy Mixed A Fund (010296) held 161,200 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 2.53% of the fund's net value, making it the third-largest heavy position [2] - The Wanji Interconnection China Advantage Quantitative Strategy Mixed A Fund (010296) was established on November 4, 2020, with a latest scale of 294 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 42.63%, ranking 1770 out of 8087 in its category; the one-year return is 39.77%, ranking 1779 out of 8085; and since inception, it has a loss of 4.55% [2] - The fund manager of Wanji Interconnection China Advantage Quantitative Strategy Mixed A Fund is Yin Hang, who has a cumulative tenure of 5 years and 164 days, with the current total asset scale of 502 million CNY. The best fund return during his tenure is 67.41%, while the worst is -7.61% [2]