Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The logistics industry is transitioning from price competition to high-quality development under the "anti-involution" backdrop, with regulatory policies accelerating industry consolidation and compliant companies gaining market share and pricing power [6][41]. - The company is a leading national automotive logistics service provider, covering a full-service system including complete vehicle transportation, international logistics, and new energy services, which is expected to provide stable revenue and profit growth [6][27]. - The report highlights the significant potential for profit improvement due to the depreciation of previously purchased vehicles and the scarcity of compliant transport capacity, which is expected to enhance the profitability of the company's self-owned transport vehicles [6][42]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 4,175 in 2024 to 6,587 in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.3% [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 80 million yuan in 2024 to 153 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 10.8% in 2025 and 18.1% in 2027 [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.13 yuan in 2024 to 0.25 yuan in 2027 [2]. Business Segments - **Complete Vehicle Transportation**: The company anticipates stable growth in revenue from complete vehicle logistics, driven by steady growth in China's automotive production and sales [8]. - **International Logistics**: The international logistics segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenues projected to reach 27.70 billion yuan by 2027, driven by strong demand for automotive exports, particularly in new energy vehicles [8]. - **New Energy Business**: The new energy segment is projected to see substantial growth, with revenues expected to increase from 2.76 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.95 billion yuan in 2027, benefiting from policy support for new energy storage development [8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a robust market position with a large fleet and extensive transportation network, which is expected to provide a competitive edge in the logistics industry [6][53]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic partnerships and collaborations, particularly in international logistics, which enhance its service capabilities and market reach [6][70]. Valuation - The report uses a price-to-sales (P/S) valuation approach, comparing the company to U.S. peers in the ground freight industry, indicating that the company's P/S ratio is currently lower than its comparables, justifying the "Buy" rating [7][8].

Group 1 - The company is currently in the process of transforming to produce new energy heavy-duty trucks [2] - The company does not have its own new energy transportation vehicles at this time [2] - The company's V2G demonstration station in Beijing is currently operating normally [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6][17] Core Views - The implementation of vehicle transport regulation is expected to lead to increased freight rates and improved profitability for the company, similar to the effects observed during previous regulatory periods [2][4] - The company's self-owned transport vehicles exhibit significant profit elasticity, which could benefit from a rebound in freight rates and increased mileage due to regulatory compliance [3][4] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to declining vehicle freight rates, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of recovery driven by regulatory actions [4][5] Summary by Sections Regulatory Impact - The Ministry of Transport, Public Security, and Industry and Information Technology has initiated a special governance action for vehicle transport, effective from July 2025, aimed at strict management of new vehicle market access and enhanced enforcement against overloaded vehicles [1] - Historical data shows that similar regulatory actions in 2016-2018 led to a significant increase in freight rates and profitability for the company, with average freight rates rising by 23% and net profit reaching 400 million yuan by 2018 [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 3,783.01 million yuan in 2023 to 4,888.02 million yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.99% [5][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to fluctuate, with a forecast of 73.63 million yuan for 2025, down from previous estimates, but anticipated to rebound to 416.81 million yuan by 2027 [5][12] Valuation Metrics - The report provides various valuation metrics, including a projected P/E ratio of 65.24 for 2025 and an EV/EBITDA of 11.29, indicating a potential undervaluation relative to future earnings growth [5][12]

Group 1 - The company has elected a new chairman during the 13th meeting of the 6th board of directors on July 16, 2025 [1] - The company has completed the relevant business registration changes and obtained a new business license from the Sanming Market Supervision Administration [2] - The legal representative of the company has changed to Mr. Pan Longying, while other details remain unchanged [2] Group 2 - The registered capital of the company is 235.756 million yuan [2] - The company was established on April 18, 1996, and operates in various sectors including forestry management, seedling cultivation, and environmental monitoring [2] - The company is classified as a publicly listed joint-stock company with a unified social credit code of 91350000705188269J [2]

[Current Period Performance Forecast](index=1&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Current%20Period%20Performance%20Forecast) The company anticipates a substantial year-on-year decline in both net profit and non-recurring net profit for H1 2025, with figures ranging from 7-10.5 million yuan and 6-9 million yuan respectively Key Financial Performance Forecast | Metric | 2025 H1 Forecast (million yuan) | 2024 H1 (million yuan) | YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders | 7.00 - 10.50 | 52.5659 | ↓ 80.03% - 86.68% | | Non-Recurring Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders | 6.00 - 9.00 | 53.2037 | ↓ 83.08% - 88.72% | - The data in this performance forecast represents preliminary calculations by the company's finance department and has not been audited by a certified public accountant[2](index=2&type=chunk) [Operating Performance in Prior Period](index=2&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Operating%20Performance%20and%20Financial%20Position%20in%20Prior%20Period) In H1 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 52.57 million yuan and non-recurring net profit of 53.20 million yuan, with basic EPS of 0.09 yuan 2024 H1 Key Financial Data | Metric | 2024 H1 Data | | :--- | :--- | | Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders | 52.5659 million yuan | | Non-Recurring Net Profit Attributable to Parent Company Shareholders | 53.2037 million yuan | | Basic Earnings Per Share | 0.09 yuan/share | [Analysis of Main Reasons for Performance Decline](index=2&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Main%20Reasons%20for%20Current%20Period%20Performance%20Decline) The H1 2025 profit decline is attributed to intensified domestic price competition, geopolitical disruptions affecting overseas operations, falling international shipping rates, and vessel maintenance impacting gross profit - Domestic OEM clients' cost-cutting measures led to lower bid prices, resulting in a decline in gross profit despite a year-on-year increase in shipment volume[5](index=5&type=chunk) - Geopolitical conflicts disrupted certain overseas client routes, leading to a reduction in business volume[5](index=5&type=chunk) - The international sea freight market achieved supply-demand balance, causing freight rates to decline compared to the same period last year; concurrently, the company's roll-on/roll-off vessels underwent maintenance and preparation in the first half, impacting profitability[5](index=5&type=chunk) [Risk Warning and Other Disclosures](index=2&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Risk%20Warning) The company clarifies that this unaudited performance forecast is a preliminary estimate, with final accurate data to be presented in the official 2025 semi-annual report, and confirms no material uncertainties affecting its accuracy - This performance forecast is a preliminary calculation by the company's finance department and has not been audited by a certified public accountant, thus it contains uncertainties[6](index=6&type=chunk) - The final accurate financial data will be based on the company's officially disclosed 2025 semi-annual report, cautioning investors about investment risks[7](index=7&type=chunk)

长久物流（603569）公告，预计2025年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为700万元到1050万 元，与上年同期相比，将减少4206.59万元到4556.59万元，同比下降80.03%到86.68%。预计2025年半年 度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润600万元到900万元，与上年同期相比，将减少 4420.37万元到4720.37万元，同比下降83.08%到88.72%。 ...

股票代码：603569 股票简称：长久物流 公告编号：2025-039 北京长久物流股份有限公司 关于追加公司及下属子公司 2025 年度日常关联交易 的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 一、 追加日常关联交易基本情况 （一）追加日常关联交易履行的审议程序 2025年4月25日，北京长久物流股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届 董事会第十次会议审议通过了《关于预计公司及下属子公司2025年度日常关联 交易的议案》，关联董事回避了此项议案的表决，前期亦经公司第五届董事会 独立董事专门会议第三次会议审议通过。该议案亦通过了公司2024年年度股东 大会审议。具体内容详见公司于2025年4月26日在上海证券交易所网站披露的 《关于预计公司及下属子公司2025年度日常关联交易的公告》（公告编号： 2025-019）。 2025年6月30日，公司第五届董事会第十二次会议审议通过了《关于追加公 司及下属子公司2025年度日常关联交易的议案》，关联董事薄世久、薄薪澎、 闫超、张振鹏回避表决，该议案无 ...

证券代码：603569 证券简称：长久物流 公告编号：2025-038 北京长久物流股份有限公司 关于公司董事会秘书变动的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 北京长久物流股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）董事会于近日收到公司董 事会秘书闫超先生的辞职报告，闫超先生因工作调整原因申请辞去公司董事会秘 书职务。辞职后，闫超先生将在公司继续担任董事、总经理及旗下多家子公司董 事、经理、监事等职务。经公司第五届董事会第十二次会议审议通过，聘任马伟 先生为公司董事会秘书，任期自本次董事会审议通过之日起至第五届董事会任期 届满之日止。 | | | | | | 是否继续 | | 是否存 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 离任 | 在上市公 | 具体职务 | 在未履 | | 姓名 | 离任职务 | 离任时间 | 原定任期到期日 | | 司及其控 | | 行完毕 | | | | | | 原因 | 股子公司 | （如适用） | ...

证券代码:603569 证券简称:长久物流 公告编号：2025-040 北京长久物流股份有限公司 第五届董事会第十二次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 二、董事会会议审议情况 1、审议通过《关于公司董事会秘书变动的议案》 表决情况：赞成 7 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票 表决结果：审议通过 上述议案已经公司董事会提名委员会审议通过，具体内容详见上海证券 交易所网站同日公告的 2025-038 号公告。 2、审议通过《关于追加公司及下属子公司 2025 年度日常关联交易的议案》 表决情况：赞成 3 票，反对 0 票，弃权 0 票 表决结果：审议通过 上述议案已经第五届董事会独立董事专门会议第四次会议审议通过，关 联董事薄世久、薄薪澎、闫超、张振鹏回避表决。具体内容详见上海证券交 易所网站同日公告的 2025-039 号公告。 一、董事会会议召开情况 北京长久物流股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第五届董事会第十二次会 议于 2025 年 6 月 30 日以现场表决方式召开，董事会会议通知及相关文 ...

公司于2025年6月20日接到控股股东长久集团通知，获悉其所持有本公司的 部分股份被质押，具体事项如下： 一、上市公司股份质押 证券代码:603569 证券简称:长久物流 公告编号：2025-037 北京长久物流股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： | | | | | | | | 已质押股份情况 | | 未质押股份情况 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股东 | | 持股比 | 本次质押前 | 本次质押后 | 占其所 | 占公司 | 已质押 | 已质押 | 未质押 | 未质押 | | 名称 | 持股数量 | 例 | 累计质押数 | 累计质押数 | 持股份 | 总股本 | 股份中 | 股份中 | 股份中 | 股份中 | | | | | 量 | 量 | 比例 | 比例 | 限售股 | 冻结股 | 限售股 | 冻结股 | | | | | | | ...