分析师 1: 各位尊敬的投资者，大家晚上好！非常感谢大家在这个周一晚上黄金时间段拨冗参加我们 国新汽车团队组织的这个汽车 2026 年的策略汇报其实这也不能说是我们这个年度策略的 一个汇报，因为我们其实针对一个 2026 年，就是去年 25 年 11 月写的这个年度策略，做 了一个补充的这个策略专题。对 20 年，就 2005 年到 2025 年的 20 年汽车行情，还有汽 车增速做了一个复盘。然后有定量也有定性的这个分析，包括对 26 年做了一个展望，所 以这次的会议，首先我们是会快速地过一下我们这个策略复盘的这个要点，得到了一些什 么结论？ 第三个就是我们也复盘了一下 2018 年，因为 2026 年哦，在我们看来其实跟 2018 年有 点相似，因为 2018 年也是一个就是补贴政策，各种政策退出的一个年份。然后汽车行业， 也出现了首年的这个销量下滑，那是 2018 年发生的事情。然后 2026 年，我们觉得也是 有销量下行的压力的。其实政策也退出。那对比 2018 年，其实汽车板块是在 2018 年的 6，6 月份开始出现销量的下滑，但是汽车行情是 3 月份就开始跌了。然后到 11 到 10 月 份的时 ...

1月27日，科博达盘中上涨2.03%，截至13:47，报78.05元/股，成交1.80亿元，换手率0.58%，总市值 315.21亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入953.80万元，特大单买入1091.47万元，占比6.05%，卖出871.66万元， 占比4.83%；大单买入4675.69万元，占比25.91%，卖出3941.71万元，占比21.85%。 截至9月30日，科博达股东户数1.33万，较上期增加17.18%；人均流通股30431股，较上期减少14.35%。 2025年1月-9月，科博达实现营业收入49.97亿元，同比增长16.96%；归母净利润6.46亿元，同比增长 6.55%。 分红方面，科博达A股上市后累计派现12.51亿元。近三年，累计派现7.07亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，科博达十大流通股东中，兴全合泰混合A（007802）位居第九大 流通股东，持股271.77万股，相比上期减少209.17万股。香港中央结算有限公司位居第十大流通股东， 持股257.21万股，相比上期减少143.81万股。兴全合润混合A（163406）退出十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 科博达 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a transition from "stable volume and slow price" to "price increase and stable volume" for the automotive industry in 2026 [6][16] - The domestic demand for passenger vehicles is expected to show positive growth in 2026, supported by policies such as scrapping and replacement subsidies [27][28] - The report highlights that the average selling price (ASP) of passenger vehicles is projected to increase, with a notable rise in ASP observed in December 2025 [16][20] Summary by Sections 1. Passenger Vehicle Sales and Market Dynamics - In December 2025, domestic passenger vehicle sales reached 2.278 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% but a month-on-month increase of 13.6% [16] - The total sales for 2025 were 23.052 million units, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.6% [16] - The report notes that December's performance was significantly below seasonal norms, attributed to the suspension of scrapping subsidies in some regions [16] 2. ASP Trends and Market Expectations - The ASP for passenger vehicles in 2025 showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, with December 2025 ASP increasing by 13.7% compared to the previous year [16][20] - The report anticipates that the continuation of scrapping policies will enhance the sales of mid-to-high-end vehicles, contributing to price increases [27] 3. Inventory and Supply Chain Considerations - As of December 2025, the inventory of passenger vehicles stood at 4.708 million units, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.48 [40] - The report suggests that short-term inventory risks are manageable, as leading domestic manufacturers may adjust production based on current demand [40] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on various companies within the passenger vehicle supply chain, including Geely, BYD, and Xpeng Motors for growth potential [6][27] - It also highlights companies like Great Wall Motors and SAIC Group as having potential turning points in their performance [6][27]

证券代码：603786 证券简称：科博达 公告编号：2026-004 科博达技术股份有限公司 关于购买股权暨关联交易的进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 一、已披露的收购事项概述 科博达技术股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 9 月 4 日召开第三 届董事会第十九次会议，2025 年 9 月 26 日召开 2025 年第三次临时股东大会审 议通过了《关于购买股权暨关联交易的议案》。根据公司战略发展的需要，公司 以 34,500 万元人民币现金收购关联方上海恪石投资管理有限公司持有的上海科 博达智能科技有限公司（以下简称"科博达智能科技"）60%股权。本次收购完成 后，科博达智能科技成为公司控股子公司。具体内容详见《科博达技术股份有限 公司关于购买股权暨关联交易的公告》（公告编号：2025-052）。 二、本次收购事项进展情况 科博达智能科技于近日完成了本次股权交易相关工商变更登记和章程备案 登记等手续，具体情况如下： | 公司名称 | 上海科博达智能科技有限公司 | | --- | - ...

资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1194.36万元，特大单买入652.28万元，占比4.28%，卖出1120.61万元， 占比7.35%；大单买入2159.71万元，占比14.17%，卖出2885.74万元，占比18.94%。 1月23日，科博达盘中上涨2.02%，截至13:22，报81.21元/股，成交1.52亿元，换手率0.47%，总市值 327.97亿元。 科博达今年以来股价涨3.98%，近5个交易日跌2.64%，近20日涨12.65%，近60日涨1.05%。 资料显示，科博达技术股份有限公司位于中国(上海)自由贸易试验区祖冲之路2388号1-2幢，成立日期 2003年9月12日，上市日期2019年10月15日，公司主营业务涉及汽车电子相关产品的研发、生产和销 售。主营业务收入构成为：汽车零部件96.77%，其他3.23%。 科博达所属申万行业为：汽车-汽车零部件-汽车电子电气系统。所属概念板块包括：小鹏汽车概念、智 能汽车、小鹏概念、汽车零部件、比亚迪概念等。 截至9月30日，科博达股东户数1.33万，较上期增加17.18%；人均流通股30431股，较上期减少14.35%。 2025年1月-9月，科博达实 ...

1月22日，科博达盘中下跌2.07%，截至13:59，报79.32元/股，成交1.30亿元，换手率0.40%，总市值 320.34亿元。 分红方面，科博达A股上市后累计派现12.51亿元。近三年，累计派现7.07亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，科博达十大流通股东中，兴全合泰混合A（007802）位居第九大 流通股东，持股271.77万股，相比上期减少209.17万股。香港中央结算有限公司位居第十大流通股东， 持股257.21万股，相比上期减少143.81万股。兴全合润混合A（163406）退出十大流通股东之列。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，科博达技术股份有限公司位于中国(上海)自由贸易试验区祖冲之路2388号1-2幢，成立日期 2003年9月12日，上市日期2019年10月15日，公司主营业务涉及汽车电子相关产品的研发、生产和销 售。主营业务收入构成为：汽车零部件96.77%，其他3.23%。 科博达所属申万行业为：汽车-汽车零部件-汽车电子电气系统。所属概念板块包括：小鹏汽车概念、汽 车零部件、比亚迪概念、智能汽车、新能源车等。 截至9月30日，科博达股东户数1.33万，较上期增加17.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the significance of the European market as a crucial component of its overseas revenue growth, contributing to 36.22% of its main business income by the third quarter of 2025 [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's overseas revenue accounts for 36.22% of its main business income as of the third quarter of 2025 [2]. - Europe is identified as a core growth area, providing substantial support for the company's revenue growth [2]. Group 2: Market Strategy - Sales in the EU market are primarily achieved through direct exports from domestic entities and localized sales by overseas subsidiaries [2]. - Detailed information regarding the company's operational performance can be found in the regular reports under "Discussion and Analysis of Operating Conditions" [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The implementation of the China-Europe electric vehicle price commitment mechanism is expected to stabilize sales expectations for Chinese electric vehicles in Europe and promote the high-end and localized transformation of automakers [5][13] - Multiple provinces have opened applications for the 2026 automotive replacement subsidy, indicating a clear path for local governments to implement the policy [14] - Great Wall Motors has launched the "Guiyuan" platform, which is the world's first native AI all-power platform, designed to support various power forms and enhance development efficiency [6][14] - The report expresses a positive outlook for 2026, highlighting opportunities in the high-end upgrade of domestic brands and the acceleration of smart technology penetration [15][16] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index with a 1-week increase of 0.5% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.4% [17] - The performance of individual stocks varied, with notable increases in companies like Ideal Auto (+2.4%) and declines in others like Li Auto (-3.5%) [17][23] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies recommended include: - Jianghuai Automobile - Leap Motor - Great Wall Motors - BYD - SAIC Motor - China National Heavy Duty Truck [7][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for selected companies show growth, with Great Wall Motors expected to reach an EPS of 2.03 in 2026 [8] Industry Indicators - In December 2025, automotive production and sales reached 3.296 million and 3.272 million units, respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2% [42] - New energy vehicles accounted for approximately 52% of total new vehicle sales, indicating a significant market shift towards electrification [42]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Kobot's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.04% and a total market value of 32.434 billion yuan [1] - Kobot's main business involves the research, production, and sales of automotive electronic products, with 96.77% of its revenue coming from automotive parts [1] - As of September 30, Kobot reported a revenue of 4.997 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.96%, and a net profit of 646 million yuan, up 6.55% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - Kobot has distributed a total of 1.251 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 707 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, Kobot had 13,300 shareholders, an increase of 17.18% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 14.35% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders of Kobot include notable entities such as Xingquan Huitai Mixed A and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with both experiencing a reduction in shares compared to the previous period [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The Chinese heavy truck market's total sales for 2025 reached 1.145 million units, marking a 27% increase from the previous year [5][13] - The China Automobile Association forecasts total automobile sales in 2026 to be 34.75 million units, a 1% year-on-year growth [15] - The demand for high-end luxury passenger cars in China is exceeding expectations, with a favorable competitive landscape [7] Industry News - Tesla will stop selling Full Self-Driving (FSD) after February 14, transitioning to a monthly subscription model [14] - Shanghai aims to achieve large-scale application of high-level autonomous driving scenarios by 2027 [16] - Great Wall Motors launched the world's first native AI all-power platform "Guiyuan," supporting multiple power systems [17] - Canada has reduced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 6.1%, eliminating the previous 100% additional tax [18] Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the market with a weekly increase of 0.71%, ranking 8th among A-share primary industries [25] - The passenger vehicle index decreased by 1.87%, while the commercial vehicle index increased by 5.53% [6] - The automotive parts index rose by 1.26%, with notable gains in the electric control systems and lightweight components [6][35] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, recommended stocks include JAC Motors and Seres, with beneficiaries being Geely Automobile [7] - In the parts sector, recommended stocks include Desay SV Automotive, Zhejiang Xiantong, and Meili Technology, with beneficiaries being Weichai Power and others [7]