2026 年 2 月 23 日│中国内地 动态点评 汽车 增持 (维持) | 宋亭亭 | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570522110001 | songtingting021619@htsc.com | | SFC No. BTK945 | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | | 张硕* | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570524110001 zhangshuo023124@htsc.com | | | | +(86) 21 2897 2228 | 郭春麟* 联系人 SAC No. S0570124110001 guochunlin@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 证券研究报告 汽车 国产机器人亮相春晚有望点燃市场热情 ——智驾&机器人双周报 2 华泰研究 行业走势图 (15) (6) 3 12 21 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 (%) 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 重点推荐 | | | 目标价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 股票代码 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive and technology sectors [5]. Core Insights - Tesla's Q4 gross margin exceeded expectations at 20.1%, marking a significant recovery in profitability despite a decline in vehicle deliveries [10][12]. - The company is accelerating its transition towards a "physical AI" strategy, with a focus on autonomous driving and robotics [10][13]. - The FSD (Full Self-Driving) subscription model is set to replace the one-time purchase option, reflecting confidence in the technology's future penetration [14][15]. - Tesla's energy business continues to show strong growth, with a record gross profit margin of 28.6% [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - Tesla's Q4 performance highlights a shift towards physical AI, with a focus on autonomous driving and robotics [10]. - The automotive sector is facing delivery pressures, but profitability is recovering, particularly in the energy business [10][12]. - The global regulatory framework for L4 autonomous driving is evolving, which may benefit companies with global compliance capabilities [19]. Key Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Xpeng Motors, Coboda, SOTON, Horizon Robotics, Top Group, Hesai Technology, Minth Group, and Yinlun [7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for companies with overseas production capacity and mass delivery capabilities to gain a stronger market position [10]. Financial Performance - Tesla's Q4 revenue was $24.9 billion, slightly above market expectations, with a year-over-year decline of 3% [10][12]. - The energy segment achieved a record gross profit of $1.1 billion, contributing to a 25% year-over-year revenue increase [12]. - The company plans to invest over $20 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, the highest in its history, focusing on new factories and AI infrastructure [13]. Robotics and Autonomous Driving - The Optimus robot is entering mass production, with the Fremont production line being repurposed for this purpose [18]. - The Robotaxi initiative is progressing, with plans for Cybercab production to start in April [13][18]. - The report notes the increasing importance of the robotics software ecosystem and the potential for public showcases, such as the Spring Festival, to enhance visibility [23]. Market Trends - The report highlights the trend of platformization in the Robotaxi sector, with companies like Uber and Alipay entering the market [21]. - Significant capital movements and strategic integrations are occurring in the L4 commercial vehicle sector, indicating a rapid acceleration towards commercialization [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive and technology sectors [5]. Core Insights - Tesla's Q4 gross margin exceeded expectations at 20.1%, driven by a strong performance in the energy business, despite a decline in net profit due to Bitcoin devaluation and increased stock-based compensation [2][10]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of Tesla's physical AI transformation strategy, with a focus on autonomous driving and robotics [10][13]. - The global regulatory framework for Level 4 (L4) autonomous driving is rapidly forming, which is expected to benefit companies with global compliance capabilities [3][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - Tesla's Q4 performance shows a gross margin of 20.1%, significantly above the expected 17.0%, marking the highest level in two years [10][12]. - The automotive delivery faced pressure, with a total of 418,000 vehicles delivered in Q4, a year-over-year decline of 16% [12]. - The energy business continues to thrive, with a record gross profit of $1.1 billion and a gross margin of 28.6% [12]. Autonomous Driving - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) will transition to a subscription model, eliminating the one-time purchase option, reflecting confidence in the FSD experience and future penetration [14]. - The Robotaxi fleet in Austin has begun operating with a small number of vehicles without safety drivers, marking a significant step towards fully autonomous operation [16]. - Tesla has established a data center in China to support the FSD rollout without the need for data to leave the country [17]. Robotics - The Optimus Gen3 robot is set to debut in Q1 2026, with production lines being repurposed from Model S/X to focus on robotics [18]. - The robotics software ecosystem is evolving, with significant advancements in control systems that enhance autonomous capabilities [23]. - The report highlights the increasing attention on the robotics supply chain as companies prepare for mass production [18]. Market Recommendations - Key stock recommendations include Xiaopeng Motors, Coboda, SOTON, Horizon Robotics, Top Group, Hesai Technology, Minth Group, and Yinlun [7]. - The report suggests a focus on companies with strong production capabilities and those positioned to benefit from the shift towards robotics and autonomous driving [10][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - In January 2026, the heavy truck market showed a strong wholesale performance with approximately 100,000 units sold, marking a significant increase of about 39% compared to the same month last year [5][13] - The terminal sales for heavy trucks are expected to decline by 5% to 10% year-on-year, with a severe drop of over 85% in the new energy truck segment [5][13] - NIO is projected to achieve an adjusted operating profit of 700 million to 1.2 billion RMB in Q4 2025, marking its first positive quarterly adjusted operating profit [17] - The automotive sector is experiencing a shift towards high-end luxury vehicles, with domestic demand exceeding expectations [7] - The automotive parts sector is expected to see an upward turning point in profitability due to industry consolidation and downstream expansion [7] Summary by Sections Industry Key News - In January 2026, the heavy truck market's wholesale sales reached around 100,000 units, with terminal sales expected to decline year-on-year [5][13] - NIO anticipates an adjusted operating profit of 700 million to 1.2 billion RMB for Q4 2025 [17] - BYD plans to localize 50% of its parts manufacturing in Brazil by the end of 2026 [19] - Tesla is transitioning to humanoid robot production, with a long-term business value projected at 25 trillion USD [20] Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the broader market with a weekly increase of 0.47%, ranking 10th among major sectors [24] - The commercial vehicle index rose by 1.34%, led by Jinlong Automobile and Foton Motor [6][29] - The automotive parts sector saw a 0.58% increase, with significant gains from companies like Xingmin Zhitong and Yinlun [6][32] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, high-end domestic brands like JAC Motors and Seres are recommended due to strong demand and favorable competition [7] - In the automotive parts sector, companies such as Desay SV and Zhejiang Xiantong are highlighted for their growth potential [7]

Summary of Conference Call on China Autos & Shared Mobility Industry Overview - The focus is on the integration of smart-driving and cockpit functionalities within the automotive industry, particularly in China. This integration is expected to accelerate significantly in the next 6-12 months due to advancements in VLA (vision-language-action) models and a pressing need for cost savings [1][2]. Key Insights 1. **Integration of Smart Systems**: The integration of smart cockpit and smart driving systems is anticipated to reach a new level, with penetration rates of approximately 80% for smart cockpits and 60% for smart driving (L2 and above) in China by 2025. This shift is driven by the synergy between these systems, increased AI computing needs, and OEMs' focus on cost savings [2][3]. 2. **Cost Savings from Integration**: Integrating cockpit and driving functions onto a single SoC (System on Chip) could yield cost savings of Rmb2-3k per vehicle by eliminating the need for separate hardware components. This integration is expected to make advanced features accessible in vehicles priced below Rmb150k [10][11]. 3. **Technological Advancements**: The automotive industry is witnessing rapid technological upgrades, with chip processes advancing from 7nm to 5nm and below. This is crucial for meeting the higher computing power demands of L3 autonomous driving systems, which require onboard computing power ranging from 700 to 2250 TOPS [4]. 4. **Market Dynamics**: Companies like Horizon Robotics are positioned to benefit from this trend, provided they can compete effectively with established players like Nvidia in the SoC market. However, this integration poses risks for tier-one DCU makers, as it may lead to a decrease in the value content of their products [11][16]. Additional Considerations - **Supplier Landscape**: Key suppliers and OEMs adopting integrated smart cockpit and driving solutions are highlighted, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape within the industry [11]. - **Risks**: Potential risks include slower-than-expected adoption of ADAS/AD technologies, supply chain disruptions, and successful in-house hardware design initiatives by OEMs [18]. Conclusion The automotive industry in China is on the brink of significant transformation with the integration of smart-driving and cockpit functionalities. This shift is driven by technological advancements, cost-saving measures, and changing market dynamics, presenting both opportunities and risks for stakeholders involved.

Core Viewpoint - The company has optimized its customer structure over the years, establishing partnerships with numerous global automotive manufacturers and transitioning from a "pure supplier" to a "strategic partner" model [1] Group 1: Customer Partnerships - The company has established relationships with major automotive groups including Volkswagen Group (and its subsidiaries Audi, Porsche, Bentley, and Lamborghini), FAW Group, SAIC Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, SAIC General Motors, PSA, Stellantis, Jaguar Land Rover, Renault, Nissan, Toyota, Li Auto, NIO, Xpeng, Geely, BYD, Cummins, and Weichai [1] - The company aims to deepen cooperation with top-tier clients globally, integrating into their supply chains to create a mutually beneficial ecosystem for automotive components [1] Group 2: Strategic Collaboration - The company is focused on upgrading its role from a simple supplier to a strategic partner, embedding itself within the global supply chain of its clients [1] - In response to global industrial division demands, the company seeks to secure a long-term competitive position by offering more competitive products, technologies, and services [1] Group 3: Technological Innovation - The company collaborates with leading global clients in cutting-edge areas such as intelligent driving, intelligent power distribution systems (Efuse), and domain controllers, engaging in joint research and innovation [1] - The goal is to promote the application of technological achievements in client operations, thereby building a mutually beneficial industrial ecosystem [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, KOBODA, is significantly increasing its overseas business, which is expected to become a crucial growth driver for its future development, with exports accounting for over one-third of its business by the third quarter of 2025 [1] Group 1: Global Expansion Strategy - The company is enhancing its global production base by establishing a factory in Japan and acquiring the Czech IMI company to create a high-standard automotive electronics production base in Europe [1] - There is a focus on resource integration and element allocation globally to ensure dynamic optimization of various factors as the global production system advances, thereby enhancing collaborative efficiency [1] - The company plans to set up procurement centers and regional operational management headquarters as needed during the globalization process, aiming for localized manufacturing and operations led by local teams, creating a complete supply chain from raw materials to final product assembly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Kobot, emphasizes its unique position as a local Chinese automotive electronic component supplier capable of synchronous development with major global automakers, highlighting its achievement of becoming an Audi A-level supplier [1] Group 1: R&D and Development Model - Kobot's R&D model focuses on synchronous development with vehicle manufacturers, allowing for precise alignment with vehicle design requirements [1] - The company has established a professional team composed of experienced R&D experts from both domestic and international backgrounds to enhance its development capabilities [1] Group 2: Product Design and Market Adaptation - Kobot is committed to increasing its investment in research and design, continuously optimizing and improving its product offerings to meet market demands [1] - The company actively provides vehicle manufacturers with product design solutions that align with industry trends, helping clients maintain a competitive edge [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company believes that the automotive electronics industry has significant barriers to entry, which include customer resource barriers, technical barriers, talent barriers, industrialization barriers, and financial barriers [1] Group 1: Barriers to Entry - Customer Resource Barriers: The certification process for suppliers by automakers is stringent, complex, and lengthy, requiring compliance with IATF16949 and multiple product certifications. Once established in the supply chain, it is difficult for new entrants to penetrate, creating a high customer barrier [1] - Technical Barriers: The industry is technology-intensive, requiring products to meet automotive-grade reliability, adaptability to harsh environments, and electromagnetic compatibility. This involves the integration of multiple technical fields and long-term experience accumulation, with recall systems further raising quality thresholds, resulting in significant technical barriers [1] - Talent Barriers: The industry requires a combination of technical and experienced management talent, with interdisciplinary skills and industry experience needing long-term cultivation. New entrants find it challenging to quickly assemble a high-quality team, leading to talent barriers [1] Group 2: Additional Barriers - Industrialization Barriers: Companies must possess capabilities for large-scale production, specialized processes, efficient supply chain management, and quality control. New entrants are at a disadvantage in production coordination and supply chain management, creating industrialization barriers [1] - Financial Barriers: The industry demands substantial investment in research, testing, and production line equipment, with long development and mass production cycles requiring continuous capital support. New entrants face high financial thresholds [1]

Group 1 - The global automotive industry is clearly transitioning towards electrification and intelligence, with the company focusing on high-value products such as automotive central computing platforms, intelligent driving domain control, and smart distribution systems (Efuse) [2] - The company has a strong foundation in the intelligent field, possessing flexible production lines and intelligent production technologies, and has established deep collaborations with technology companies like Momenta, Qualcomm, and Horizon [2] - The company aims to optimize its business portfolio through a combination of independent research and open collaboration, creating a complete solution from decentralized control to centralized control, thereby enhancing the value of vehicle components and its business resilience [2]