Market Overview - The rail transit equipment sector experienced a decline of 0.61% on November 4, with the leading stock, Railway Technology, falling significantly [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3960.19, down 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13175.22, down 1.71% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the rail transit equipment sector included: - Dinghan Technology (300011) with a closing price of 8.19, up 2.12% on a trading volume of 198,400 shares and a turnover of 163 million yuan [1] - Gongda Gaoke (688367) closed at 22.91, up 1.42% with a trading volume of 25,600 shares and a turnover of 57.97 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Rail Technology (301016) which fell 4.88% to a closing price of 21.42, with a trading volume of 65,000 shares and a turnover of 143 million yuan [2] - Times Electric (688187) decreased by 2.81% to 50.24, with a trading volume of 63,300 shares and a turnover of 321 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The rail transit equipment sector saw a net outflow of 6.74 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 12.74 million yuan [2] - Specific stock capital flows indicated: - China CNR (601766) had a net outflow of 53.89 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 63.50 million yuan [3] - Dinghan Technology (300011) experienced a net inflow of 11.32 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 18.74 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Times Electric has been declining for four consecutive days, with a total drop of 12.81% during this period, leading to concerns about its market performance and investor sentiment [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Times Electric, officially known as Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd., is located in Zhuzhou, Hunan Province, and was established on September 26, 2005. It was listed on September 7, 2021 [1]. - The company primarily engages in the research, design, manufacturing, and sales of rail transit equipment, with a product structure that includes "devices + systems + complete machines." Its main products consist of rail transit traction conversion systems, rail engineering machinery, and communication signal systems [1]. - The revenue composition of the company is as follows: rail transit equipment business accounts for 56.58%, emerging equipment business for 42.94%, and other businesses for 0.48% [1]. Group 2: Shareholder Information - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Times Electric, one fund from Huaxia Fund holds a significant position. The Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588000) reduced its holdings by 5.1715 million shares in the third quarter, now holding 9.2025 million shares, which represents 0.68% of the circulating shares [2]. - The estimated floating loss for this fund today is approximately 13.34 million yuan, with a total floating loss of 67.9148 million yuan during the four-day decline [2]. - The Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 ETF (588000) was established on September 28, 2020, and has a current scale of 75.62 billion yuan. Year-to-date returns are 41.08%, ranking 1065 out of 4216 in its category, while the one-year return is 48.72%, ranking 781 out of 3896 [2]. Group 3: Fund Holdings - The Huaxia SSE Smart Selection Sci-Tech Innovation Board Value 50 Strategy ETF (589550) holds 26,900 shares of Times Electric, which constitutes 2.53% of the fund's net value, making it the eighth-largest holding [3]. - The estimated floating loss for this fund today is about 39,000 yuan, with a total floating loss of 198,700 yuan during the four-day decline [3]. - The Huaxia SSE Smart Selection Sci-Tech Innovation Board Value 50 Strategy ETF (589550) was established on July 16, 2025, and has a current scale of 5.61035 million yuan, with a return of 23.68% since inception [3].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has downgraded the target price for Times Electric (688187.SH) to RMB 49.9 from RMB 51, maintaining a "Neutral" rating, while the target price for its H-shares (03898) is lowered to HKD 36.2 from HKD 37, with a "Buy" rating [1] Financial Performance - Times Electric reported weak Q3 2025 results with revenues of RMB 6.62 billion, operating profit of RMB 1.11 billion, and net profit of RMB 1.05 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11%, 15%, and 5% respectively [1] - The company's gross margin, operating margin, and net margin stood at 33%, 17%, and 16% respectively [1] Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has slightly reduced its revenue forecasts for Times Electric for the years 2025 to 2030 by up to 5% and net income forecasts by up to 6% to reflect the recent performance results [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Times Electric has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.01% and a total market capitalization of 68.78 billion yuan, while the company shows a year-to-date stock price increase of 8.97% [1] Company Overview - Times Electric, established on September 26, 2005, and listed on September 7, 2021, is located in Zhuzhou, Hunan Province. The company specializes in the research, design, manufacturing, and sales of rail transit equipment, with a product structure that includes "devices + systems + complete machines" [1] - The main business revenue composition includes rail transit equipment business at 56.58%, emerging equipment business at 42.94%, and others at 0.48% [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Times Electric achieved an operating income of 18.83 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.83%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.77% [2] - Since its A-share listing, Times Electric has distributed a total of 5.11 billion yuan in dividends, with 3.84 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders of Times Electric increased to 22,500, with an average of 40,493 circulating shares per person, reflecting a 201.21% increase from the previous period [2] - The top circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 16.42 million shares, an increase of 477,500 shares from the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that Times Electric's third-quarter performance was weak, with revenue, operating profit, and net profit at 6.62 billion, 1.11 billion, and 1.05 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11%, 15%, and 5% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter was 6.62 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 11% [1] - Operating profit reached 1.11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15% [1] - Net profit was 1.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% [1] - Gross margin, operating margin, and net margin were reported at 33%, 17%, and 16% respectively [1] Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs slightly lowered its revenue forecast for Times Electric for the years 2025 to 2030 by up to 5% [1] - The net income forecast was also reduced by up to 6% to reflect the performance results [1] Target Price Changes - The 12-month target price for Times Electric's A-shares was adjusted from 51 yuan to 49.9 yuan, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] - The 12-month target price for H-shares was revised down from 37 Hong Kong dollars to 36.2 Hong Kong dollars, with a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Insights - The Social Security Fund has disclosed its stock holdings for the third quarter, appearing in the top ten shareholders of 73 stocks, with 27 new entries and 20 increased holdings [1][2] - The total shareholding amounts to 337 million shares, with a market value of 18.639 billion yuan [1] - The fund's holdings are primarily concentrated in the electronics, machinery, and pharmaceutical industries [2] Group 1: Stock Holdings - The highest shareholding ratio by the Social Security Fund is in Andar Intelligent, accounting for 10.57% of circulating shares, followed by Sany Renewable Energy at 7.64% [2] - Eight stocks have over 10 million shares held by the fund, with Transsion Holdings having the largest holding of 32.7184 million shares [2] - The top three stocks by market value held are Transsion Holdings (3.082 billion yuan), Western Superconductor (1.34 billion yuan), and Times Electric (796 million yuan) [2] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Among the stocks held, 47 reported a year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters, with Yuanjie Technology showing the highest growth of 19,348.65% [2] - The average performance of the stocks held by the Social Security Fund has seen a decline of 3.00% since October [3] - The best-performing stock is Foxit Software, with a cumulative increase of 41.07%, while the largest decline is seen in Lexin Technology, down 24.42% [3] Group 3: Shareholding Changes - The fund has reduced its holdings in 15 stocks while maintaining its position in 11 stocks [1] - New entries include Hehui Optoelectronics-U, Guanggang Gas, and Pumen Technology, which have significant shareholding volumes [1][2] - The fund's presence in three stocks, including Yingke Recycling, Kaili New Materials, and Foxit Software, indicates concentrated investments with multiple fund entries [1][2]

Macro Analysis - The report indicates that the current macro environment in Japan is conducive to moderate economic growth, with manageable debt sustainability, improving consumer sentiment, and favorable manufacturing investment trends [1] - The report anticipates an upward potential for the yen by 2026, while the Japanese stock market's previous gains have largely reflected policy expectations, suggesting that future market momentum will depend on the effectiveness of policy implementation [1] Financial Engineering - The report predicts a year-on-year decline in profit for the coal, steel, and cement industries, while float glass profitability is expected to show positive growth [2] - A slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory is noted, with stable recovery potential for pork prices expected until Q1 of next year [2] - Weak PMI data and housing sales indicate a need to monitor the potential resumption of infrastructure support expectations [2] Real Estate - In October, the sales of the top 10 and top 100 real estate companies increased by 6% and 4% month-on-month, respectively, but year-to-date sales show a decline of 16% and 17% year-on-year [3] - The report recommends focusing on structurally strong companies with high product reputation and strong sales rankings in core cities, such as China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [3] - Long-term growth potential in property services is highlighted, with recommendations for companies like China Merchants Jiyu and Greentown Service [3] Petrochemical - OPEC+ announced a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December and a pause in production plans from January to March 2026, which is expected to support oil prices in the short term [4] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the long-term investment value of major oil companies amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [4] Company Research - Sanyou Chemical's profitability has declined due to falling soda ash prices, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [7] - Aokai Co. has seen a continuous improvement in performance, although profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to weaker-than-expected downstream demand [8] - Qiaoyuan Co. has optimized its product structure and expanded its market, resulting in an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [9] - Xiyes Co. reported a 17.81% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a 35.99% increase in net profit [10] - China Metallurgical Group's revenue and net profit have declined significantly, but new contracts have shown positive growth [11] - Times Electric's revenue grew by 14.9% year-on-year, with a stable growth outlook for its rail transit equipment business [12] - Oulutong's revenue reached a record high in Q3, driven by strong demand for high-power server power supplies [13] - Junshi Biosciences has adjusted its profit forecasts downward due to ongoing R&D investments and the gradual ramp-up of product sales [14] - Jinjiang Hotels reported a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit margin, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 55.0, indicating a potential upside of 39% from the current price of HKD 39.62 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of RMB 18.83 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, and a net profit of RMB 2.72 billion, up 10.9% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit grew by 30.9% year-on-year to RMB 2.61 billion [2][3]. - The rail transit business showed stable growth, with maintenance services accounting for approximately 22% of rail transit revenue, reflecting a significant increase compared to the previous year. The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for maintenance services in national rail and urban rail systems [3]. - The semiconductor factory reached full production capacity, generating significant revenue growth. The new energy generation division has started to operate independently and has achieved slight profitability, with plans for further business expansion in solar and energy storage sectors [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 27.83 billion, RMB 30.92 billion, and RMB 34.63 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 11.7%, 11.1%, and 12.0% [4][7]. - Net profits are expected to be RMB 4.10 billion, RMB 4.58 billion, and RMB 5.06 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 10.7%, 11.8%, and 10.4% [4][7]. - The report estimates a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times for 2026, supporting the target price of HKD 55.0 [4].

Core Viewpoint - UBS has adjusted the earnings per share forecast for Times Electric (03898) for 2025 to 2027 upwards by 3%, reflecting an improvement in profit margins [1] - The target price based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method has been raised from HKD 45.2 to HKD 48.3, corresponding to a 13.7 times expected price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, due to a market revaluation of the power semiconductor business [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating for its H-shares, considering its solid core business and growth potential in new business areas [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company's operating revenue and net profit increased by 15% and 11% year-on-year, reaching RMB 18.8 billion and RMB 2.7 billion, respectively, driven by healthy growth in rail passenger volume and rapid growth in emerging equipment products [1] - In the third quarter, revenue and net profit grew by 10% and 8% year-on-year, amounting to RMB 6.6 billion and RMB 1 billion, which is in line with market expectations [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters improved by 3 percentage points due to product structure upgrades in the rail transit business [1] - The gross margin and net margin for the third quarter increased by 1 percentage point and decreased by 0.3 percentage points, reaching 33.2% and 15.9%, respectively [1] - The net cash inflow from operating activities for the first three quarters was RMB 2.1 billion, compared to a net inflow of RMB 554 million in the same period last year [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has adjusted the earnings per share forecast for Times Electric (03898) for 2025 to 2027 upwards by 3%, reflecting an improvement in profit margins [1] - The target price based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation method has been raised from HKD 45.2 to HKD 48.3, corresponding to a 13.7 times expected price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, due to a market re-evaluation of the power semiconductor business [1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating for its H-shares, considering its solid core business and growth potential in new business areas [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company's operating revenue and net profit increased by 15% and 11% year-on-year, reaching RMB 18.8 billion and RMB 2.7 billion, respectively, driven by healthy growth in rail transit business and rapid growth in emerging equipment products [1] - In the third quarter, revenue and net profit grew by 10% and 8% year-on-year, amounting to RMB 6.6 billion and RMB 1 billion, respectively, which is in line with market expectations [1] - The gross margin for the first three quarters improved by 3 percentage points due to product structure upgrades in the rail transit business [1] - The third quarter gross margin and net profit margin increased by 1 percentage point and decreased by 0.3 percentage points, reaching 33.2% and 15.9%, respectively [1] - The net cash inflow from operating activities for the first three quarters was RMB 2.1 billion, compared to a net inflow of RMB 554 million in the same period last year [1]