Summary of China Agriculture: Fertilizers Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Fertilizer sector in China - **Importance**: Fertilizers are essential for enhancing agricultural productivity and ensuring food security in China, which produces nearly one-third of global fertilizers while utilizing only 9% of global cropland [2][9] Key Insights 1. **Phosphate Fertilizer Outlook**: - Anticipated improvement in phosphate fertilizer pricing due to higher utilization driven by increased compound fertilizer consumption [2][17] - Expected domestic phosphate rock pricing to rise from Rmb1,000/t to Rmb1,051/t in 2026E and Rmb1,150/t by 2030E, reflecting a structural deficit in supply [9][26] 2. **Urea Market Dynamics**: - Deterioration in urea balance expected due to new supply additions, with potential easing of exports providing upside risk [2][17] - Forecasted decline in domestic urea pricing by 5% in 2026E [17] 3. **Potash Market Conditions**: - Rising surplus in the domestic potash market anticipated as Laos expansion by Chinese producers ramps up [2][17] - Potash benchmark pricing revised down by 3% for 2026E due to surplus outlook [17] 4. **Product Upgrades and Efficiency**: - Increased penetration of slow-release and water-soluble fertilizers expected to drive better growth than the industry average, enhancing absorption efficiency [3][9] - Projected growth in slow-release/water-soluble fertilizer market share from nearly 10% in 2024A to 40% by 2030E [13] Company Coverage Initiation 1. **Yuntianhua (YTH)**: - Rating: Buy - Target Price: Rmb45.0/sh, implying 43% upside - Key Strength: Integrated producer with self-sufficient phosphate rock resources [4][20] 2. **Xinlianxin (XLX)**: - Rating: Neutral - Target Price: HK$8.5/sh, implying 7% downside - Key Strength: Low-cost urea producer with differentiated slow-release fertilizer offerings [4][20] 3. **New Yonfer**: - Rating: Neutral - Target Price: Rmb16.0/sh, implying 2% upside - Key Strength: Leading high-end compound fertilizer producer with potential for upstream resource integration [4][20] 4. **Qinhai Salt Lake (QHL)**: - Rating: Sell - Target Price: Rmb16.0/sh, implying 37% downside - Key Concern: Surplus outlook in the domestic potash market [4][20] Additional Insights - **Global Trade Position**: China has historically contributed significantly to global fertilizer trade, with 29% of global urea exports and 30% of MAP/DAP exports at its peak [17] - **Environmental Considerations**: The report highlights the importance of improving absorption efficiency in fertilizers to address challenges posed by structural tightness in natural resources [9][25] Conclusion - The fertilizer sector in China is poised for changes driven by supply-demand dynamics, product upgrades, and strategic company positioning. The outlook for phosphate fertilizers appears positive, while urea and potash markets face challenges. The initiation of coverage on key players reflects a strategic approach to capitalize on these trends.

12月8日盐湖股份大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢 | 买方营 | 卖方营业部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | （万元） | （元） | 价（%） | 业部 | | | 50.00 | 1292.50 | 25.85 | -0.96 | 机构专 | 中国中金财富证券有限公司 | | | | | | 用 | 青海分公司 | 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为36.15亿元，近5日增加3550.07万元，增幅为0.99%。 机构评级来看，近5日共有1家机构给予该股评级，预计目标价最高的是国泰海通证券，12月2日国泰海 通证券发布的研报预计公司目标价为31.86元。 据天眼查APP显示，青海盐湖工业股份有限公司成立于1997年08月25日，注册资本529157.2541万人民 币。（数据宝） 盐湖股份12月8日大宗交易平台出现一笔成交，成交量50.00万股，成交金额1292.50万元，大宗交易成交 价为25.85元，相对今日收盘价折价0.96%。该笔交易的买方营业部为机构专用，卖方营业部为中国中金 财富证券有限 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [7] Core Insights - The lithium industry is experiencing strong near-term demand, with significant price increases for lithium carbonate driven by supply disruptions and robust battery demand. However, there are considerable divergences in long-term demand forecasts, particularly for 2026 and 2027 [1][3][30] - The report anticipates a supply increase of 32.3% in 2026 and 17.1% in 2027, primarily from new projects in domestic salt lakes and increased production from African and Australian mines [2][10] - The demand forecast for 2026 estimates a total lithium carbonate demand of approximately 207.2 million tons LCE, with a year-on-year growth of 25.2% [25][30] - The supply-demand balance is expected to show a slight surplus in 2026 but may shift to a shortage in 2027 due to declining supply growth and sustained high demand [4][30] Supply Summary - The global lithium resource supply is projected to be 163.4 million tons in 2025, 216.2 million tons in 2026, and 253.2 million tons in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.3%, 32.3%, and 17.1% respectively [2][12][31] - Supply disruptions, particularly from the Jiangxi mine, have impacted the 2025 supply growth, which is expected to decline to 22.3% from 28.6% in 2024 [10][11] Demand Summary - The report highlights a significant divergence in demand growth expectations for 2026, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a 75% increase in energy storage installations and a 60% penetration rate for new energy vehicles [3][26] - The total demand range for lithium carbonate in 2026 is estimated between 197.5 million tons and 216.8 million tons LCE, reflecting a nearly 20 million tons variance based on different growth assumptions [26][30] Balance Summary - The supply-demand balance for 2025 is projected to show a shortage of approximately 2.0 million tons, while 2026 is expected to have a surplus of 9.1 million tons [4][30] - The report indicates that the lithium market may face a persistent shortage starting in 2027 due to reduced supply growth and high demand [4][30] Price Summary - The report estimates that the fundamental price for lithium carbonate in 2026 will be in the range of 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton, with potential upward pressure on prices in the second half of 2026 due to anticipated shortages [5][34] - If a sustained shortage occurs, prices could rise to 120,000 yuan per ton [5][34]

Core Viewpoint - The overall materials index (000987) experienced a rise of 2.13% on December 5, closing at 4681.4 points, with a total trading volume of 125.67 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.57% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The index saw 137 stocks increase in value, with International Composite Materials leading the gainers at a 20.03% increase, while 24 stocks declined, with Multi-Fluorine leading the losses at a 2.46% decrease [1] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include Zijin Mining, Wanhua Chemical, and others, with Zijin Mining holding the largest weight at 11.36% and a price increase of 2.05% [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds into the index's constituent stocks totaled 3.025 billion yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 488 million yuan [3] - The detailed capital flow indicates that Zijin Mining had a net inflow of 731 million yuan from main funds, while it faced a net outflow of 2.01 billion yuan from retail investors [3] Group 3: Index Adjustments - Recent adjustments to the index included the addition of 16 new stocks and the removal of 5 stocks, effective December 15, 2025 [4] - Newly added stocks include companies like Shangwei New Materials and Lianrui New Materials, while stocks such as Jinhui Co. and Sanyou Chemical were removed from the index [4]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced fluctuations on December 5, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a price increase of 0.13% [1][9] - Key stocks in the sector, including agricultural chemicals, potassium fertilizers, and polyurethane, saw significant gains, with Yangnong Chemical and Yaqi International both rising over 2% [1][9] - The basic chemical sector has attracted substantial capital recently, with a net inflow of over 2.2 billion yuan on the day, ranking fifth among 30 sectors [12][13] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (516020) has a price-to-book ratio of 2.32, which is at a relatively low level compared to the past decade, indicating potential value for long-term investment [4][11] - Future demand in the chemical industry is expected to recover gradually, driven by improvements in macroeconomic conditions and consumption stimulus policies [5][6] - Investment opportunities may arise in sectors such as organic silicon, polyester filament, and phosphate chemicals, which are expected to benefit from favorable supply-demand dynamics and government policies [12][13] Group 3 - Salt Lake Co. reported stable operations in its lithium salt project, achieving a daily output of 60-70 tons with a purity of over 99.7%, indicating strong production performance [10][11] - The basic chemical sector has seen a cumulative net inflow of 196.8 billion yuan over the past 60 days, ranking third among 30 sectors [12][13] - The chemical ETF (516020) provides exposure to a diversified range of chemical sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [13]

（编辑 丛可心 袁冠琳） 证券日报网讯 12月4日，盐湖股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司实际控制人及控股股东已就 同业竞争事项作出明确承诺，公司将严格遵循相关法律法规和监管要求，积极推进同业竞争问题的妥善 解决。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Salt Lake Co., primarily produces potassium chloride and lithium carbonate [2] - The company has not yet started the production of boric acid and borax products [2]

Group 1 - The company, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ), primarily produces potassium chloride and lithium carbonate [2] - The company does not currently manufacture boric acid or borax products [2] - There was an inquiry from investors regarding the production capacity and national ranking of boric acid and borax, which the company addressed by confirming the absence of such production [2]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 盐湖股份（000792.SZ）12月4日在投资者互动平台表示，目前，4万吨锂盐项目整体运行平稳，效能提 升态势良好，日产量达60~70吨，纯度稳定在99.7%以上，装置连续无故障运行。公司本年度碳酸锂生 产计划为3000吨，从当前进展来看，该目标有望超额完成。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：新4万吨产能已经生产2个月了，现在月、日产量是多 少？ ...

盐湖股份（000792.SZ）12月4日在投资者互动平台表示，公司碳酸锂生产目前保持正常。同时，随着公 司对碳酸锂生产工艺的持续优化与改进，冬季低温环境对生产的影响已逐步降低，有效保障了生产经营 的稳定。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：近期气温低，公司盐湖提锂受到影响了吗？ ...