（文章来源：证券时报网） 数据宝统计，截至14:07，盐湖股份成交额60.72亿元，创2022年7月8日以来新高。最新股价上涨 3.29%，换手率3.56%。上一交易日该股全天成交额为50.05亿元。（数据宝） ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a significant rally, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing strong performance and individual stocks within the sector also seeing substantial gains [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical ETF (516020) opened with a rise and maintained high volatility, reaching a maximum intraday increase of 3.83% and closing up by 3.15% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Hengli Petrochemical, surged over 8%, while others like Xingfa Group, Kaisa Bio, and Junzheng Group increased by more than 7% [1]. - The basic chemical sector attracted significant capital, with a net inflow of 12.4 billion yuan on the day, ranking second among 30 major sectors [3]. Group 2: Price Movements and Profit Expectations - In late December, the price of paraxylene (PX) rose significantly, with futures increasing by over 800 yuan/ton and spot prices up by approximately 340 yuan/ton [3]. - The rise in PX prices is expected to enhance profit expectations for refining companies, leading to a bullish sentiment in the stock market [3]. - Major changes among leading companies during a period of industry downturn may present opportunities for recovery [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - China Galaxy Securities forecasts a negative growth in capital expenditure for the chemical industry in 2024, with supply-side contraction expected due to the "anti-involution" trend and the acceleration of the elimination of outdated capacity [3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which, combined with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, is anticipated to open up demand for chemical products [3]. - A dual bottom in supply and demand is expected to be established, with strong policy catalysts potentially leading to a cyclical upturn in the chemical industry by 2026, marking a transition from valuation recovery to earnings growth [3]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Investors may consider the chemical ETF (516020) for efficient exposure to the sector, as it tracks the CSI sub-industry index and covers various segments of the chemical industry [4]. - Nearly 50% of the ETF's holdings are concentrated in large-cap leading stocks, such as Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry, providing opportunities for strong performance [4]. - The remaining 50% of the ETF's holdings include leading stocks in segments like phosphate fertilizers, fluorine chemicals, and nitrogen fertilizers, allowing for comprehensive investment in the chemical sector [4].

截至2026年1月6日13:05，中证细分化工产业主题指数强势上涨3.78%，成分股恒力石化上涨9.72%，鲁 西化工上涨8.79%，桐昆股份上涨8.24%，君正集团，万华化学等个股跟涨。 消息方面，万华化学自2025年12月起连续上调MDI/TDI等核心产品全球售价，与巴斯夫、陶氏等国际巨 头同步调价，行业集中检修及原料成本上涨推动聚氨酯价格走强；同期中国硫酸工业协会联合磷复肥协 会召开保供稳价会议，明确硫酸资源优先保障磷肥生产，以稳定春耕农资供应。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金（013527）关注化工板块投资机遇。 光大证券指出，基础化工、化学制品行业当前处于周期底部回升阶段，化工品价格指数有望止跌企稳， 行业整体进入底部蓄势期。在库存低位叠加需求逐步修复的背景下，下游企业补库将推动行业盈利能力 触底回升。化工行业PE估值历史分位数较高，PB估值接近2019年和2024年底部水平，显示行业仍具较 大上行空间。新兴应用领域如AI、OLED、机器人等终端市场的高景气度成为行业新增长引擎，半导体 ...

截至2026年1月6日11:25，中证石化产业指数强势上涨3.61%，成分股恒力石化上涨8.13%，鲁西化工上涨7.87%，万华化学上涨7.25%，桐昆股份、华鲁恒 升、等个股跟涨。石化ETF(159731)上涨3.47%，最新价报0.95元。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600309 | 万华化学 | 7.25% | 10.47% | | 601857 | 中国石油 | 1.39% | 7.63% | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | 4.75% | 6.44% | | 600028 | 中国石化 | 1.64% | 6.44% | | 600938 | 甲国海海 | 2.24% | 5.22% | | 600160 | 巨化股份 | 1.43% | 4.51% | | 000408 | 藏格矿业 | 2.49% | 3.82% | | 600143 | 金发科技 | 0.42% | 3.69% | | 600426 | 华鲁恒升 | 6.87% | 3.31% | | 600989 | 宝丰能源 | 4.31% | 3.2 ...

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.53% and the Chemical Sub-Index increased by 2.43%, with notable stock performances including Junzheng Group up over 8% and Hengli Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical up over 5% [1] - The Chemical ETF by Harvest (159129) increased by 2.49%, reflecting strong performance in the chemical sector [1] - The Venezuelan oil exports have nearly dropped to zero due to U.S. oil sanctions, leading to the state oil company reducing crude production and initiating emergency measures to close some oil fields [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities predicts that the "anti-involution" policy signals will effectively optimize the supply side of the refining and chemical industry [1] - The global external environment is changing rapidly, with significant uncertainties related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, U.S.-Iran relations, and U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" [1] - It is expected that the Brent oil price will stabilize between $55-65 per barrel and WTI oil price between $52-62 per barrel by 2026, considering OPEC+'s fiscal balance oil price costs and the high new well costs of U.S. shale oil [1] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Sector Chemical Industry Index, which selects 50 large-cap, liquid chemical companies from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical, Salt Lake Co., Tianci Materials, Cangge Mining, Juhua Co., Hualu Hengsheng, Duofu Du, Hengli Petrochemical, Baofeng Energy, and Yuntianhua [2]

③开年以来消费、家电、汽车、房地产等化工主要下游均有望迎来政策发力，行业需求有望受益于下游 改善，价格有望回暖。 化工ETF天弘(159133)跟踪细分化工指数，基础化工、石油石化、电力设备三大申万一级行业占比超 93%，农药、化肥、涂料、新能源材料、高性能塑料等化工全产业链布局，精选50只成份股，既包含万 华化学、盐湖股份、天赐材料等龙头公司，又涵盖细分领域优质中小企业，磷化工、氟化工、钾肥、新 能源材料等全覆盖，能更好地抓住化工行业整体的发展红利。 兴业证券指出，2026年化工行业将迎来周期复苏与产业升级的双重机遇。化工品底部区间运行已达三 年，随着"十五五"开局之年国内稳增长政策有望发力，美联储进入降息周期，叠加"反内卷"浪潮的助推 下，化工品传统需求有望温和复苏。 格隆汇1月6日｜今日化工板块延续近期涨势，碳酸锂价格继续上涨，带动化工ETF天弘(159133)跟踪的 标的指数上涨3.14%，自去年12月17日以来累计涨超17%，盘中交易价格再创上市以来新高。该ETF盘 中获资金净申购1450万份，连续4日净流入，合计"吸金"超6400万元。 ①继湖南裕能、万润新能、德方纳米等企业集体宣布1月停产检修后 ...

截至2026年1月6日10:31，中证石化产业指数强势上涨2.58%，成分股恒力石化、万华化学、盐湖股份、鲁西化工、凯赛生物等个股领涨。石化ETF(159731) 上涨2.28%，最新价报0.94元。资金流入方面，石化ETF近8个交易日内，合计"吸金"2446.03万元。石化ETF最新规模达2.46亿元，创近1年新高。 截至1月5日，石化ETF近2年净值上涨43.18%。从收益能力看，截至2026年1月5日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86%，最长连涨月数为8个月， 最长连涨涨幅为41.6%，上涨月份平均收益率为5.25%。截至2026年1月5日，石化ETF近1年超越基准年化收益为2.08%。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600309 | 万华化学 | 5.60% | 10.47% | | 601857 | 中国石油 | 0.60% | 7.63% | | 000792 | 盐湖股份 | 4.65% | 6.44% | | 600028 | 中国石化 | 0.82% | 6.44% | | 600938 | 甲国海 ...

Market Overview - On the first trading day of 2026, the A-share market experienced a "red opening," with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points and over 4100 stocks rising, including 127 stocks hitting the daily limit [1][2] - Notable market participants included well-known speculators appearing on the leaderboard of several popular thematic stocks [1] Investment Themes - The most active sectors on January 5 included commercial aerospace, lithium batteries, and AI applications, with significant trading volumes concentrated in these areas [2][9] - The commercial aerospace sector index saw a substantial increase of 29.87% from November 24, 2025, to January 5, 2026 [2] Notable Stocks - **Aerospace Machinery (航天机电)**: - The stock saw significant buying from major speculators, with the top buying seat from Guotai Junan Securities in Yichang contributing 261 million yuan [2][3] - The total trading volume for the stock reached approximately 551.83 million yuan on January 5 [3] - **China Satellite Communications (中国卫通)**: - This stock attracted major speculative interest, with a buying amount of 341 million yuan from a prominent speculator's seat [4] - The stock also achieved a daily limit increase on the same day [4] - **Tianji Shares (天际股份)**: - The stock's leaderboard was notably active, with four of the top five buying seats being from well-known speculators [5][6] - The company specializes in lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key material for lithium batteries [5] - **Salt Lake Potash (盐湖股份)**: - The stock received significant buying interest, with major speculators purchasing over 118 million yuan [6][7] - The company is expected to report a net profit of 8.29 to 8.89 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 77.78% to 90.65% [7] - **BlueFocus Communication Group (蓝色光标)**: - The stock experienced a strong 20% limit increase, with total trading volume reaching 1.75 billion yuan [8] - However, the major speculators on its leaderboard primarily sold the stock [8] Speculative Activity - The trading activity on January 5 indicated a high level of engagement from speculators, particularly in the aforementioned sectors, suggesting a continuation of interest in these themes into the new year [9][10] - The brain-computer interface sector also saw some speculative activity, although it was primarily focused on stocks that also had lithium battery connections [9][10]

Group 1 - As of January 5, the margin trading balance in A-shares reached 25,606.48 billion yuan, an increase of 199.66 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.55% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The trading volume of margin transactions on the same day was 2,915.25 billion yuan, which is an increase of 730.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 11.34% of the total A-share trading volume [1] - Among the 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index, 27 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading with a net inflow of 3.35 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - A total of 63 individual stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Shenghong Technology leading at a net inflow of 694 million yuan [2] - Other notable stocks with significant net financing inflows include Lioo Co., Zhongwei Company, Yanhai Co., Aerospace Power, Xunwei Communication, Shannon Chip, Keda Xunfei, Western Materials, and Bolite [2] - Guosen Securities research report indicates that the current period is an earnings window, and certain stocks benefiting from high growth in overseas AI computing power are expected to see performance forecasts catalyze in January [2]

Group 1 - As of January 5, the margin trading balance in A-shares reached 25,606.48 billion yuan, an increase of 199.66 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.55% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The trading volume of margin transactions on the same day was 2,915.25 billion yuan, which is an increase of 730.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 11.34% of the total A-share trading volume [1] - Among the 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index, 27 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading at a net inflow of 3.35 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - A total of 63 individual stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with Shenghong Technology leading at a net inflow of 694 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks with significant net financing inflows include Lioo Co., Zhongwei Company, Salt Lake Co., Aerospace Power, Xinwei Communication, Shannon Chip, Keda Xunfei, Western Materials, and Bolite [1][2] - Current reports suggest that the market is in an earnings window period, with certain stocks benefiting from high growth in overseas AI computing power expected to see performance forecasts catalyzed in January [2] - The upcoming CES 2026 exhibition is anticipated to drive a spring market rally, particularly in innovative sectors such as AI smartphones, AI glasses, and foldable screens [2]