1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened high and closed low. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the discount even widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, and the 3C shipments were average. The planned production of energy storage batteries increased in September. The registered warehouse inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. The expected supply contraction is weakening as the resumption of lithium mines is progressing actively. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Investors should be vigilant about the downstream restocking point [1]. - The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 16, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73060 yuan/ton, 73180 yuan/ton, 73340 yuan/ton, and 73340 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 540 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 500267 hands (+17477), and the open interest was 300437 hands (-9009) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 38824 tons (-139 tons) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 330 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 853 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1075 yuan/ton (-82.5 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 1815 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 6090 yuan/ton (+115 yuan/ton), and the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 7065 yuan/ton (-135 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 72850 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70600 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.3 US dollars/kg (unchanged), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained/domestic) was 74050 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized/domestic) was 79020 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 56650 yuan/ton (+150 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 81250 yuan/ton (+600 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 79125 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 74675 yuan/ton (+225 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 93800 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119650 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114375 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 118325 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 146650 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 33470 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy - storage type) was 32075 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) was 29300 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton), and the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 231500 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Cobalt - Related Product Prices**: The average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/imported) was 273000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was 57400 yuan/ton (+725 yuan/ton), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%/domestic) was 226500 yuan/ton (+1500 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 36213 tons (-3262 tons), the inventory of downstream sectors was 58279 tons (+3072 tons), the inventory of other sectors was 44020 tons (-1390 tons), and the total inventory was 138512 tons (-1580 tons) [1]. 3.4 Company News - On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate in Lanke Lithium Industry was upgraded through technological innovation, and the current capacity has been increased to 40,000 tons per year. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high - quality industrial development [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a net profit of 1.371 billion yuan in Q2 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.371 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter; the non-recurring net profit was 1.365 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company’s potassium chloride production reached approximately 1.0249 million tons in Q2 2025, a 6% increase quarter-on-quarter, while sales remained stable at approximately 886,800 tons [2] - The revenue from potassium chloride business in the first half of 2025 was 5.368 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.55%, with a gross margin of 59.95%, up 6.43 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Lithium Business - In Q2 2025, the company produced 11,500 tons of lithium carbonate, a 35% increase quarter-on-quarter, with sales of 12,500 tons, a 54% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] - The revenue from lithium carbonate business in the first half of 2025 was 1.242 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%, with a gross margin of 49.96%, down 10.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 3: Project Development and Future Outlook - The company is making significant progress on its core projects, with the 40,000 tons/year lithium salt project reaching 71% overall progress and expected to enter trial production by the end of September [2] - The company is actively pursuing exploration in the Qaidam Basin and other regions, while also expanding its resource acquisition channels through cooperation in potassium fertilizer-rich areas [3] - The company has a strong cash position with 19 billion yuan in cash as of Q2 2025, indicating promising dividend expectations and long-term investment value [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.371 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% [2][4]. - The company's core potassium chloride business showed resilience, with a production volume of approximately 1.0249 million tons in Q2 2025, a 6% increase quarter-on-quarter, and a sales volume of approximately 886,800 tons, remaining stable [5]. - Despite a decline in lithium carbonate prices, the potassium chloride prices continued to rise, enhancing the company's profitability [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 1.371 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit was 1.365 billion yuan, reflecting a 6% year-on-year increase and a 19% quarter-on-quarter increase [2][4]. Potassium Chloride Business - The company realized potassium chloride revenue of 5.368 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a slight increase of 0.55% year-on-year [5]. - The gross profit margin for potassium chloride was 59.95%, an increase of 6.43 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Lithium Carbonate Business - The company produced 11,500 tons of lithium carbonate in Q2 2025, a 35% increase quarter-on-quarter, with sales reaching 12,500 tons, a 54% increase quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The revenue from lithium carbonate in the first half of 2025 was 1.242 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.2% year-on-year [5]. Project Development - The company is progressing well with its core projects, with the 40,000 tons/year lithium salt project reaching 71% completion and expected to enter trial production by the end of September 2025 [9]. - The company is actively exploring potassium and lithium resources in various regions, including Southeast Asia, Africa, and South America [9]. Long-term Investment Value - The potassium fertilizer business is expected to continue providing stable cash flow, supported by substantial cash reserves of 19 billion yuan as of Q2 2025, indicating promising dividend expectations [9]. - The anticipated ramp-up of the lithium salt project and the expected benefits from the integration following the acquisition by a state-owned enterprise are expected to enhance the company's long-term growth potential [9].

Market Overview - The agricultural chemical sector experienced a slight decline of 0.06% on September 16, with Bai'ao Chemical leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] Top Performers - Dongfang Tieta (002545) saw a significant increase of 10.01%, closing at 14.84 with a trading volume of 691,900 shares and a turnover of 1.006 billion [1] - Yangmei Chemical (600691) rose by 9.94%, closing at 3.43 with a trading volume of 1,739,500 shares and a turnover of 577 million [1] - Zhongqi Co., Ltd. (300575) increased by 9.48%, closing at 7.85 with a trading volume of 833,100 shares and a turnover of 638 million [1] Underperformers - Bai'ao Chemical (603360) declined by 2.74%, closing at 24.84 with a trading volume of 172,300 shares and a turnover of 428 million [2] - Yanhua Co. (000792) fell by 1.57%, closing at 20.12 with a trading volume of 537,300 shares and a turnover of 1.084 billion [2] - Chengxing Co. (600078) decreased by 1.50%, closing at 6.58 with a trading volume of 85,500 shares and a turnover of 5.625 million [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural chemical sector saw a net outflow of 167 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 226 million [2] - The capital flow data indicates that institutional and speculative funds experienced net outflows, while retail investors showed a positive net inflow [3] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Dongfang Tieta (002545) had a net inflow of 73.81 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 21.21 million from retail investors [3] - Yangmei Chemical (600691) recorded a net inflow of 61.53 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 40.65 million from retail investors [3] - Bai'ao Chemical (603360) experienced a net outflow of 52.60 million from speculative funds, while institutional investors contributed a net inflow of 73.81 million [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rare metals sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with recent regulatory changes and supply-demand dynamics influencing market trends [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 16, 2025, the China Securities Rare Metals Theme Index has decreased by 2.23%, with leading stocks such as Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals and Northern Rare Earths showing declines [1]. - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) has seen a 13.27% increase over the past month, indicating a strong recovery trend [1]. - The Rare Metals ETF has achieved a record high in scale, reaching 2.735 billion yuan, and a record high in shares at 3.558 billion, leading among comparable funds [4]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The Rare Metals ETF recorded an intraday turnover of 8.19%, with a transaction volume of 218 million yuan [4]. - Over the past week, the ETF has maintained an average daily transaction volume of 230 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [4]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 231 million yuan recently, with three out of the last five trading days showing positive net inflows totaling 304 million yuan [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side remains tight, with upstream raw ore separation enterprises maintaining stable operations, although some face reduced operating rates due to raw material supply constraints [5]. - Demand from downstream magnetic material companies remains strong, with major manufacturers maintaining high operating rates and sufficient order reserves [5]. - Recent data indicates a 3.4% month-on-month decrease in China's rare earth exports in August, while export value increased by 51%, reflecting a "volume decrease, price increase" trend [4]. Group 4: Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the rare metals index account for 57.58% of the total index, with Northern Rare Earths and Luoyang Molybdenum being the most significant contributors [5]. - Notable declines in stock prices include Northern Rare Earths down by 3.98% and Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals down by 1.66% [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Lanke Lithium Industry has successfully upgraded its production capacity from 30,000 tons to 40,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually through technological improvements [1] - The company plans to continue benchmarking against industry leaders to enhance resource extraction and utilization efficiency [1] - The focus is on promoting high-quality development within the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yancoal Energy has decided to terminate its acquisition of Highfield Resources due to unmet conditions in the implementation and subscription agreements by the deadline [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - Yancoal Energy signed the implementation and subscription agreements with Highfield Resources on September 23, 2024, to enter the global potash industry [1] - The agreement involved Yancoal transferring 100% of its Canadian coal assets to Highfield Resources, which would issue shares at AUD 0.50 per share as consideration [1] - Highfield Resources aimed to raise USD 220 million through a directed share issuance, with Yancoal intending to invest up to USD 90 million [1] Group 2: Highfield Resources Overview - Highfield Resources was listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in February 2012, focusing on potash project development, with its core asset being the Muga project in northern Spain [2] - The Muga project has a proven and controlled ore reserve of 104 million tons, with a potassium chloride grade of 16.1%, and a total designed capacity of 1 million tons per year [2] Group 3: Background and Developments - The acquisition faced complications when Yancoal announced on May 12 that Highfield Resources had signed a non-binding cooperation letter with Salt Lake Potash, which planned to invest approximately USD 300 million [3] - Following Salt Lake Potash's withdrawal from the cooperation on August 2023, Yancoal's acquisition of Highfield Resources faced renewed uncertainty [4] - Yancoal stated that the termination of the transaction would not affect its existing operations or development plans, and it would continue to advance its Canadian potash projects [4] Group 4: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Yancoal Energy reported revenue of CNY 59.349 billion and a net profit of CNY 4.652 billion, achieving a historical high in coal production [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q2 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 6.781 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.515 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.69% [6] - Domestic demand for potassium fertilizer is supporting a high level of market activity, while the lithium carbonate market is expected to recover from its low point [6] - The company is actively pursuing exploration projects for potassium and lithium resources in various regions, including Southeast Asia and Africa [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 17.808 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.7% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 6.123 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 31.3% [2] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.16 yuan in 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 18 [2] Market Data - As of September 12, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 20.26 yuan, with a market capitalization of 107.207 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.7 [3] - The average price of potassium fertilizer in Q2 2025 was approximately 2,994 yuan per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.65% [6] Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the company produced and sold 1.9898 million tons and 1.7779 million tons of potassium fertilizer, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 11.8% and 20.5% [6] - For lithium carbonate, production and sales in the first half of 2025 were 20,000 tons and 20,600 tons, respectively, with significant growth in Q2 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous increase in the prices of various metals, particularly electrolytic cobalt and polysilicon, while lithium concentrate prices have seen a decline. This indicates a mixed outlook for different segments within the new materials industry [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Electrolytic cobalt price is at 271,000 CNY/ton, up 3.0% week-on-week, with a price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder at 0.87, up 1.4% [1][10]. - Lithium concentrate (Li2O 5%) price is at 700 USD/ton, down 3.58% week-on-week [1]. - The price of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials is stable at 343,000 CNY/ton and 1,147,000 CNY/ton, respectively [1]. Photovoltaic New Materials - Polysilicon price is at 6.45 USD/kg, up 4.0% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in the solar materials market [2]. - EVA price remains stable at 10,800 CNY/ton, reflecting a low position since 2013 [2]. Nuclear Power New Materials - Uranium price is at 59.58 USD/lb, up 4.0% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in nuclear materials [2]. Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of cobalt tetroxide is at 214,200 CNY/ton, up 0.56% week-on-week, while lithium cobalt oxide price remains stable at 175.0 CNY/kg [3]. - Silicon carbide price is stable at 5,300 CNY/ton, reflecting steady demand in the electronics sector [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the metal new materials sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, due to price increases and supply disruptions. Companies like Salt Lake Co., Zangge Mining, and Huayou Cobalt are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Lithium Mining and Production in China - **Key Players**: Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (QSLI) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Supply Disruption Risks**: The Chinese government is investigating mining rights, which may lead to supply disruptions. Eight lepidolite mines in Yichun need verification as lithium mines, requiring new mining licenses and production permits. The Jianxiawo mine could potentially receive a new license in three months if the process is expedited [1][2][4] 2. **Demand Dynamics**: Battery demand, particularly for energy storage systems, is expected to be stronger than market forecasts. Year-over-year (YoY) growth in lithium demand in China continues to outpace supply growth as of September [2][4] 3. **Inventory Trends**: Lithium carbonate and hydroxide inventories are expected to decline, with downstream producers restocking due to improved demand outlook. Upstream producers are anticipated to destock lithium chemicals [2][4] 4. **CAPEX Trends**: Downstream capital expenditures (CAPEX) from battery producers are outpacing those of lithium producers, indicating a positive medium- to long-term outlook for lithium prices. Increased demand for solid-state batteries is seen as a potential driver for downstream CAPEX expansion [3][4] 5. **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment towards China's lithium sector remains constructive due to strong demand, improved inventory structures, and a mismatch in CAPEX expansion between upstream and downstream sectors. However, there are potential downside risks if supply disruptions are less severe than anticipated [4] Additional Important Insights 1. **Investment Preferences**: The preferred order of investment in lithium companies is Tianqi > Ganfeng - A > QSLI > Ganfeng - H, reflecting varying levels of confidence in their performance [4] 2. **Risks and Opportunities**: - **Downside Risks**: Include weakening lithium demand, less severe supply disruptions, increased CAPEX for current projects, and high acquisition costs for other lithium targets [29][31][33] - **Upside Risks**: Include worse-than-expected supply disruptions, earlier-than-expected demand drivers, quicker expansion of key mines, and lower acquisition costs for lithium targets [30][32][34] 3. **Regulatory Environment**: The ongoing mining rights investigation poses a significant risk to the sector, with potential regulatory changes impacting production and supply dynamics [28][4] 4. **Price Targets and Ratings**: Current price targets for key companies are as follows: - **Tianqi Lithium**: Buy, Rmb 46.24 - **Ganfeng Lithium - A**: Buy, Rmb 48.90 - **Qinghai Salt Lake Industry**: Buy, Rmb 20.71 - **Ganfeng Lithium - H**: Neutral, HK$ 36.82 [45] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the lithium industry in China, highlighting both the opportunities and risks present in the current market landscape.