Summary of Conference Call on Potash Market Industry Overview - The potash market is experiencing upward price trends due to domestic production declines and maintenance impacts, despite government policies aimed at stabilizing supply and prices [2][4] - The global potash market is dominated by a few major suppliers, with stable overseas supply and high pricing central tendency, limiting downward pressure in the short term [2][6] - Domestic potash supply is heavily reliant on imports, with approximately 60% dependence, indicating weaker domestic supply stability compared to nitrogen and phosphorus [2][7] Key Points and Arguments - **Price Trends**: Since June 2023, potash prices have rebounded after an initial decline, primarily due to reduced domestic production and maintenance activities leading to supply shortages [4][5] - **Government Policies**: The government's supply stabilization policies have significantly impacted the potash market by accelerating production post-maintenance and encouraging major traders to stabilize prices [5][9] - **Global Supply Dynamics**: Major global suppliers include Russia, Belarus, Canada, and China, with a stable supply situation since Q4 2022. New supply from Southeast Asia and Canada is expected but will take time to materialize [6][8] - **Future Supply Outlook**: New supply from Southeast Asia and Canada is anticipated over the next two years, but the release cycle is long, limiting immediate market impact [8][9] - **Price Pressure**: The price pressure in the potash market is expected to remain manageable, with global pricing conditions favorable and no significant downward trends anticipated [9][10] Additional Important Insights - **Domestic Supply Challenges**: Domestic potash supply has decreased by approximately 500,000 tons this year, with port inventories at low levels, restricting the ability to smooth market supply through inventory [10][11] - **Performance of Major Suppliers**: Salt Lake Co., a key domestic supplier, is expected to increase supply post-maintenance, while other suppliers like Yamei and Dongfang Tieta are showing stable performance and cost control, indicating a positive outlook for the potash industry [3][12][13] - **Market Demand**: The demand for potash remains strong, particularly for autumn fertilization, supported by the essential role of potash in fruit growth and yield enhancement [5][11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the fund, Guotai Agricultural Stock A, achieved a profit of 25.351 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0881 yuan, and a net value growth rate of 5.49% during the reporting period [2] - As of July 18, 2025, the fund's unit net value was 1.716 yuan, and the fund manager, Cheng Zhou, oversees 9 funds, all of which have positive returns over the past year [2] - The fund's performance in terms of net value growth rates places it in the following rankings among comparable funds: 9th out of 41 for the last three months (6.24%), 17th out of 41 for the last six months (8.37%), 14th out of 41 for the last year (13.70%), and 28th out of 37 for the last three years (-29.55%) [3] Group 2 - The fund's maximum drawdown over the last three years was 46.17%, ranking 8th out of 37 comparable funds, with the largest single-quarter drawdown occurring in Q1 2021 at 15.53% [11] - The fund maintained an average stock position of 91.65% over the last three years, compared to the industry average of 87.67%, reaching a peak of 93.73% at the end of Q1 2025 [14] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the fund's total assets amounted to 475 million yuan [16] Group 3 - The top ten holdings of the fund as of the end of Q2 2025 include Muyuan Food, Dongpeng Beverage, Wens Foodstuff Group, Haida Group, Salt Lake Industry, Xinyangfeng, Yili Group, Haitian Flavoring and Food, Shuanghui Development, and Anjixin Food [18] Group 4 - The fund management anticipates that support from export and consumption policies for the economy may weaken in Q3, but GDP is expected to remain above 5%. The macroeconomic environment is characterized by limited downside risks, with the A-share market expected to have some upward potential [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.50% on July 18, with 22 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains. The top-performing sectors were non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, with increases of 2.10% and 1.36% respectively. The sectors that declined were media and electronics, with decreases of 0.98% and 0.49% respectively [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets was 22.987 billion yuan. Ten sectors saw net inflows, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading with a net inflow of 3.794 billion yuan and a daily increase of 2.10%. The non-bank financial sector also saw a slight increase of 0.33% with a net inflow of 899 million yuan [1] - In contrast, 21 sectors experienced net outflows, with the electronics sector leading with a net outflow of 8.341 billion yuan, followed by the computer sector with a net outflow of 4.375 billion yuan. Other sectors with significant outflows included telecommunications, machinery, and automotive [1] Basic Chemicals Sector Performance - The basic chemicals sector increased by 1.36% with a total net inflow of 41.539 million yuan. Out of 401 stocks in this sector, 239 stocks rose, and 6 stocks hit the daily limit. There were 154 stocks with net inflows, with 8 stocks receiving over 50 million yuan in net inflows. The top stock for net inflow was Wanhua Chemical, with a net inflow of 849 million yuan, followed by Salt Lake Co. and Hubei Yihua with net inflows of 119 million yuan and 115 million yuan respectively [2] - The sector also had stocks with significant net outflows, with 7 stocks experiencing outflows exceeding 50 million yuan. The stocks with the highest outflows were Huafeng Super Fiber, Dongcai Technology, and Nanjing Julong, with outflows of 203 million yuan, 166 million yuan, and 92.551 million yuan respectively [2][4] Basic Chemicals Sector Fund Flow Rankings - The top stocks in the basic chemicals sector by net inflow included: - Wanhua Chemical: +8.29%, 3.77% turnover, 848.69 million yuan inflow - Salt Lake Co.: +3.60%, 2.28% turnover, 119.27 million yuan inflow - Hubei Yihua: +5.08%, 11.27% turnover, 114.66 million yuan inflow - Other notable stocks included Hualu Hengsheng, Hongbaoli, and Zhongyan Chemical with inflows ranging from 56.17 million yuan to 79.97 million yuan [2] Basic Chemicals Sector Outflow Rankings - The stocks with the highest net outflows in the basic chemicals sector included: - Huafeng Super Fiber: -2.45%, 10.74% turnover, -203.01 million yuan outflow - Dongcai Technology: +7.39%, 16.07% turnover, -166.33 million yuan outflow - Nanjing Julong: +0.78%, 41.02% turnover, -92.55 million yuan outflow - Other stocks with significant outflows included Yaji International and Yongtai Technology [4]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium extraction from salt lakes concept has seen a significant increase, with a rise of 3.30% in the market, leading the sector in gains [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The salt lake lithium concept led the market with a 3.30% increase, while other sectors like animal vaccines and avian influenza saw declines of -0.96% and -0.90% respectively [2]. - Within the salt lake lithium sector, 37 stocks rose, with notable performers including Fumiao Technology and Jiuwu High-Tech reaching the daily limit of 20% [1][2]. - The top gainers in the sector included Shengxin Lithium Energy, Guojin General, and Jinyuan Co., with increases of 10.00%, 9.95%, and 9.98% respectively [3][4]. Group 2: Capital Inflows - The salt lake lithium concept attracted a net inflow of 1.259 billion yuan, with 26 stocks receiving capital inflows, and 6 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan in net inflow [2][3]. - Shengxin Lithium Energy topped the net inflow list with 327 million yuan, followed by Jiuwu High-Tech and Tianqi Lithium with 145 million yuan and 139 million yuan respectively [2][3]. - The net inflow ratios for leading stocks included Jinyuan Co. at 45.14%, Shengxin Lithium Energy at 35.30%, and Fumiao Technology at 19.00% [3][4].

Group 1 - The chemical sector showed strong performance with the chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a maximum intraday increase of 1.63% [1] - Major stocks in the sector saw significant gains, with Wanhua Chemical rising by 7%, Huafeng Chemical increasing over 4%, and several others gaining more than 3% [1] - The basic chemical sector attracted substantial capital inflow, with net inflows exceeding 5 billion yuan, ranking second among 30 major sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (516020) is currently trading at a price-to-book ratio of 1.94, which is at a low point historically, indicating potential for long-term investment [4] - Analysts predict a recovery in the chemical industry, with improvements expected in supply-demand dynamics and a gradual increase in industry sentiment [5][6] - The government is focusing on reducing disorderly competition and promoting product quality, which may lead to a more favorable environment for the chemical sector [6] Group 3 - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI sub-sector chemical industry index, providing exposure to major companies and various sub-sectors within the chemical industry [7] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked funds (A class 012537/C class 012538) for broader exposure to the sector [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry as of July 15, 2025 [1] Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer prices are experiencing a continuous recovery, benefiting companies with abundant resources [2] - Domestic production of potassium chloride has decreased year-on-year, while inventory levels remain low, indicating a tightening supply [3] - The potassium fertilizer market is characterized by an oligopoly, with geopolitical conflicts introducing uncertainties that may affect supply and pricing [4] Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, domestic prices for potassium chloride have risen significantly, with prices at 3339 CNY/ton and 3000 CNY/ton, marking increases of 823 CNY/ton and 450 CNY/ton since the beginning of the year [2] - In Q2 2025, the average price for domestic potassium chloride was 2993.95 CNY/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 105.50 CNY/ton and a year-on-year increase of 597.50 CNY/ton [2] Domestic Production and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, China's potassium chloride production totaled 2.53 million tons, a decrease of 17.1% year-on-year, with June's production at 416,300 tons, down 27.9% year-on-year [3] - Domestic market inventory stands at 1.768 million tons, down 820,000 tons since the beginning of the year, indicating a tight supply situation [3] Market Structure and Geopolitical Risks - The global potassium fertilizer market is dominated by a few countries, primarily Canada, Russia, and Belarus, creating an oligopolistic structure [4] - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S. imposing tariffs on potassium fertilizer imports from Canada and Mexico, and conflicts involving Israel, pose risks to supply and pricing stability [4] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that companies with rich potassium resources are likely to benefit from the ongoing market recovery, with specific companies mentioned as potential investment targets [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

Group 1: Liquidity and Scale of Rare Metal ETFs - The rare metal ETF had an intraday turnover of 3.5%, with a transaction volume of 30.73 million yuan [3] - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume of the rare metal ETF reached 37.71 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - In the past year, the rare metal ETF's scale increased by 16.82 million yuan, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest margin buying amount for the rare metal ETF reached 2.08 million yuan, with a margin balance of 21.28 million yuan [3] Group 2: Performance and Returns - As of July 10, the net value of the rare metal ETF increased by 30.36% over the past year [3] - The highest monthly return since inception was 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 3 months and the longest gain percentage being 14.06% [3] - The average return during the rising months was 7.76% [3] Group 3: Industry Insights and Recommendations - The lithium sector is currently in a bottom oscillation phase, with solid-state battery industrialization accelerating and energy storage demand expected to surge [3] - The new energy storage installations are projected to grow by 140% year-on-year in 2024, which may serve as a core catalyst [3] - Companies with strong cost control in lithium extraction from salt lakes and those with overseas resource layouts are recommended for attention [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - The implementation of the Rare Earth Management Regulations is expected to enhance compliance capacity concentration, with a growth rate of 5.9% in 2024 [4] - The supply-demand gap for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is anticipated to widen starting in 2025, with a focus on light rare earth leading enterprises [4] - The strategic position of rare earths is significant due to U.S. tariff policies, which may positively impact company performance [4] Group 5: Key Stocks in Rare Metal Sector - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index include Salt Lake Co., Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others, accounting for 54.07% of the total weight [4] - Notable stock performances include Northern Rare Earth with a 9.85% increase and Salt Lake Co. with a 0.86% increase [6] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Investors can also participate in the rare metal sector through the Rare Metal ETF linked fund (014111) [7]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [6] Core Insights - Potassium is one of the three essential nutrients for crop growth, often referred to as "the grain of food" [2] - The global potassium fertilizer market is projected to reach USD 28.12 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.9% expected until 2033 [27] - The supply of potassium is dominated by a few major players, leading to a clear oligopoly in the industry [2][44] Industry Overview - Potassium is essential for crop growth, with a market size exceeding USD 100 billion [15] - The potassium resource is divided into solid potassium ores and potassium brine, with solid potassium ores being the majority [28] - Global potassium resources are unevenly distributed, with China holding only 4% of the world's reserves, leading to significant reliance on imports [2][53] Demand Analysis - Global potassium fertilizer demand is expected to grow steadily due to population increases, with an average annual growth rate of 2.67% projected from 2024 to 2030 [3] - Key regions driving demand include China, Southeast Asia, and Brazil, with specific agricultural practices increasing potassium usage [3][18] - By 2030, global potassium fertilizer demand is anticipated to reach 85.2 million tons [3] Supply Analysis - Capital expenditures for greenfield potassium projects are substantial, with development cycles typically ranging from 7 to 10 years [4] - Major projects, such as BHP's Jansen project, are expected to significantly increase global potassium production capacity [4][20] - If current projects are completed on schedule, global potassium production could reach 90.9 million tons by 2030, with a CAGR of 2.35% from 2024 to 2030 [4] Price Trends - Short-term price trends for potassium fertilizers are expected to be strong, influenced by supply constraints and high demand in key markets [5] - The price of potassium fertilizers is projected to face upward pressure until 2026, after which it may stabilize as new projects come online [5][26] - The long-term price will be supported by marginal costs, despite potential oversupply in the future [5]

Group 1 - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in China has rebounded to 62,600 CNY/ton as of July 9, marking a 1.51% increase from the beginning of the month, but a 35.6% decrease year-on-year [1] - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price reached 60,966 CNY/ton, up 2.52% month-on-month, and down 35% compared to the same period last year [1] - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability and revenue growth, driven by high demand in the supply chain and new technologies like solid-state batteries emerging in the second half of 2024 [1] Group 2 - The industry maintains an optimistic long-term growth outlook for demand, with companies utilizing cash reserves in anticipation of market improvement [2] - The entry of low-cost salt lake and integrated Chinese enterprises has strengthened the supply side's ability to withstand price fluctuations, potentially delaying the industry's turning point [2] - Companies with low-cost resources and diversified non-lithium operations are positioned to navigate the industry downturn effectively, with recommendations for specific stocks such as Zhongkuang Resources and others [2]