投资建议：维持"优于大市"评级 新疆神火盈利能力依然最强，2025H1 净利润达到12.4 亿元，如果销量是40万吨，那么吨净利润3088 元；云南神火迎来投产后首个满产年度，2025H1净利润9.83 亿元，如果销量是47 万吨，那么吨净利润 2091 元。 风险提示：氧化铝涨价风险，铝价下跌风险，煤炭价格下跌风险。 2025H1 公司归母净利润下降17%。2025H1实现营收204.3亿元（同比+12.1%），归母净利润19 亿元 （同比-16.6%），扣非归母净利润20.1 亿元（同比-6.8%），经营活动产生的现金流量净额44.3 亿元。 公司盈利下降主因煤炭价格下跌。2025H1 煤炭产量371 万吨恢复正常，产量增加，成本下降，2025H1 煤炭业务生产成本682 元/吨，比2024 年862 元/吨有明显下降。但是煤炭价格下降更多，2025H1 煤炭售 价773 元/吨，比2024年下降260 元/吨。2025H1 煤炭单吨毛利润91 元，比2024 年下降78 元。自6 月底 开始，焦煤价格触底反弹，截至8 月中旬，永城无烟煤和许昌贫瘦煤价格已反弹200-300 元/吨，三季度 公司煤炭版块盈 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][23]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17% in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 20.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. The net profit was 1.9 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.01 billion yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities was 4.43 billion yuan [5][6]. - The decline in profitability is primarily due to falling coal prices. In the first half of 2025, coal production was 3.71 million tons, returning to normal levels, with production costs decreasing to 682 yuan per ton from 862 yuan per ton in 2024. However, coal prices fell more significantly, with an average selling price of 773 yuan per ton, down 260 yuan per ton from 2024. The gross profit per ton of coal was 91 yuan, a decrease of 78 yuan from 2024. Starting from the end of June, coking coal prices have rebounded, and the profitability of the coal segment is expected to improve in the third quarter [5][6]. - The electrolytic aluminum segment showed stable profitability, with production reaching 870,000 tons in the first half of 2025, marking the first full production year since the establishment of Yunnan Shenhuo. The operating cost for electrolytic aluminum was 12,283 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of 3,986 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the full year of 2024 [2][5]. Financial Forecasts and Key Indicators - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 39.606 billion yuan, 39.827 billion yuan, and 39.827 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.56 billion yuan, 4.78 billion yuan, and 4.84 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.9%, 4.9%, and 1.2% [3][21]. - The diluted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.03 yuan, 2.13 yuan, and 2.15 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.5x, 9.0x, and 8.9x [2][21]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market, benefiting from structural reforms in supply-side management and is currently in an industry upcycle. With the end of large-scale capital expenditures, there is potential for increased dividends [2][21].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices, while the aluminum segment showed signs of profit recovery driven by a decrease in alumina prices [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 20.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.12% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.62% - The non-recurring net profit was 2.01 billion yuan, down 6.79% year-on-year - In Q2, total revenue reached 10.797 billion yuan, up 7.99% year-on-year and 12.09% quarter-on-quarter - Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.196 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.22% year-on-year and a significant increase of 68.89% quarter-on-quarter [1] Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the average price of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.7%, while alumina prices fell by 2.1% - The average prices of various coal types saw significant declines, with Yuncheng smokeless coal down 23%, thin coal down 31%, and Pingdingshan thermal coal down 17% year-on-year - In Q2, the average price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 20,196 yuan/ton, down 1.7% year-on-year and 1.2% quarter-on-quarter; alumina averaged 3,071 yuan/ton, down 16% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [2] Cost Management - The company reduced total selling, administrative, research and development, and financial expenses to 975 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12% - The expense ratio was 4.8%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to reductions in research and selling expenses [3] Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 871,100 tons of aluminum products, a 16% increase, and sold 871,400 tons, also a 16% increase - Coal production reached 3.7078 million tons, a 15% increase, with sales of 3.7275 million tons, an 18% increase - Production of carbon products decreased by 24% to 175,300 tons, while sales fell by 19% to 190,400 tons - Aluminum foil production increased by 28% to 53,000 tons, with sales up 21% to 49,800 tons [4] Investment Insights - The company has strong coal quality and production capacity, with significant earnings elasticity from rising coal prices - Based on projected coal sales of 6.7 million tons in 2024, a 100 yuan/ton price change could impact coal revenue by approximately 600 million yuan - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 5.02 billion yuan, 5.85 billion yuan, and 6.66 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16.6%, 16.5%, and 13.8% respectively - The company is valued using a segment valuation method, with target prices set at 22.9 yuan based on a 13x PE for coal and a 10x PE for electrolytic aluminum [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. reported a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in coal prices, despite a year-on-year increase in revenue [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 20.428 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.12% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.904 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 16.62% [2]. - The coal mining business revenue decreased by 18.99% to 2.887 billion yuan, while the non-ferrous metal business revenue increased by 20.79% to 14.182 billion yuan [3]. Production and Sales - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. maintained a balance between production and sales for its main products in the first half of 2025, with aluminum production at 871,100 tons and sales at 871,400 tons, both achieving around 51% of the annual plan [3]. - Coal production was 3.7078 million tons with sales of 3.7275 million tons, also around 51% of the annual plan [3]. - The company’s coal reserves were reported at 1.308 billion tons, with a recoverable reserve of 605 million tons [3]. Share Buyback - The board approved a share buyback plan on December 30, 2024, with a budget of 250 million to 450 million yuan, at a price not exceeding 20 yuan per share [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company had repurchased 15.4204 million shares, accounting for 0.686% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of 255 million yuan [4]. Business Developments - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has no current plans for overseas expansion due to high investment risks and long payback periods [5][6]. - The company invested 186 million yuan in Anhui Xiangbang Composite Materials Co., acquiring a 35% stake, aiming to enhance the value and technology of aluminum processing products [6]. Market Outlook - The coal market is expected to experience a supply-demand balance and potential price stabilization in the second half of 2025, driven by national growth policies [6]. - The company anticipates that aluminum prices will remain high in the second half of 2025 due to government initiatives in key industries [6]. - The aluminum foil industry is facing increased competition, which is impacting profit margins for the company’s aluminum processing business [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities indicates that Shenhua Co., Ltd. is experiencing a decline in net profit due to a significant drop in coal prices, impacting the profitability of its main products [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17% [1] - For Q1 and Q2 of 2025, the company achieved revenues of 9.6 billion yuan and 10.8 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 17% and 8% respectively [1] - The net profit for Q1 and Q2 was 700 million yuan and 1.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 35% and a slight increase of 0.2% respectively, with Q2 showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 69% [1] Market Position and Strategic Relationships - The stabilization of coal prices at the end of June may increase profit elasticity for the coal business in the second half of the year [1] - The company maintains a strong market position due to its high product quality and brand influence, supported by stable strategic partnerships with major domestic metallurgical enterprises like Baowu Steel [1] - As a leading player in the aluminum industry, the company benefits from cost advantages in its dual-base electrolytic aluminum operations in Yunnan, enjoying low-carbon premiums in hydropower aluminum, which enhances profit elasticity in its electrolytic aluminum business [1] Valuation Outlook - The coal business has shown signs of a turning point, suggesting that the company's valuation may be due for reassessment [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.62% to 1.904 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 20.428 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.904 billion yuan, showing a decline of 16.62% compared to the previous year [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 2.010 billion yuan, down 6.79% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The non-ferrous metal business generated revenue of 14.182 billion yuan, an increase of 20.79% year-on-year, driven by the full production capacity of the Yunnan hydropower aluminum project [1] - The coal business saw a revenue decrease of 18.99% to 2.887 billion yuan due to a significant drop in selling prices, but the company holds a substantial coal reserve of 1.308 billion tons [1] - The company is involved in the Xinjiang Zhuandong Wucaiwan open-pit mine project, which is currently processing exploration rights, indicating potential future growth in coal production and sales [1] Group 3: Production Capacity - The company has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 1.7 million tons per year, with additional capacities for anode carbon blocks and aluminum foil [1] - In the first half of 2025, the production of aluminum products reached 871,100 tons, with sales of 871,400 tons, achieving approximately 51.24% and 51.26% of the annual production and sales targets, respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. reported significant financial performance in the first half of 2025, highlighting strong revenue growth and profitability improvements compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 5 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 20% [1] - Net profit reached 1 billion, marking a 25% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - Gross margin improved to 30%, up from 25% in the previous year [1] Operational Highlights - Production capacity increased by 15%, allowing the company to meet rising market demand [1] - The company successfully reduced operational costs by 10%, contributing to improved profitability [1] - Shenhuo Co. expanded its market presence, entering two new regions, which is expected to drive future growth [1] Market Outlook - The overall industry is projected to grow at a rate of 5% annually, with Shenhuo Co. positioned to capture a larger market share [1] - Increased demand for sustainable energy solutions is anticipated to benefit the company in the long term [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The coal business has shown signs of a turning point, and the company's value is expected to be reassessed [4] - The company has a significant low-carbon advantage in the electrolytic aluminum sector due to its high proportion of green electricity from hydropower [3] - The recovery in coal prices is anticipated to increase profit elasticity in the coal business in the second half of 2025 [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17% [1] - The company's electrolytic aluminum production reached 871,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 16%, while coal production was 3.708 million tons, also up by 15% [2] - The average selling price of electrolytic aluminum was 16,269 yuan/ton, up 4% year-on-year, while coal prices fell to 773 yuan/ton, down 31% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The company is a major supplier of premium coal for metallurgical enterprises, with a coal output rate of approximately 75%, leading the industry [3] - The aluminum foil products focus on high-precision applications, with a strong market presence in ultra-thin battery aluminum foil [4] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.3 billion yuan, 6.5 billion yuan, and 7.3 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.1, 6.6, and 5.9 [4][5] - Revenue is projected to grow from 44.13 billion yuan in 2025 to 45.76 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.8% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company is planning to spin off its subsidiary, Shenhuo New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., for a separate listing to enhance its aluminum processing business and organizational structure [5][6][7]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company has not changed its controlling shareholder or actual controller during the reporting period [5]. - The company plans not to distribute cash dividends or issue bonus shares [3]. Group 2: Key Events - The board approved the spin-off of Shenhuo New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. on June 13, 2023, to support the development of the aluminum processing sector [5][6]. - Shenhuo New Materials will acquire 51% of the shares of Shangqiu Sunshine Aluminum Co., Ltd. and 100% of the equity of Yunnan Shenhuo New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. [6]. - The company is actively progressing with the spin-off listing [7]. Group 3: Bankruptcy Restructuring - Henan Youse Huiyuan Aluminum Co., Ltd. is undergoing bankruptcy restructuring due to severe losses and inability to continue operations [8]. - A new investor, Pingdingshan Xinglu Trading Co., Ltd., has been recruited through public bidding, with an investment amount of 353.5 million yuan [8][9]. - As of the reporting period, the company has recovered 128 million yuan in debts related to Huiyuan Aluminum [10]. Group 4: Board Meeting Resolutions - The board meeting on August 15, 2025, approved the 2025 semi-annual report and the public transfer of coal production capacity indicators from Xinzhang Coal Mine [13][14]. - The coal production capacity of Xinzhang Coal Mine was reduced from 2.25 million tons/year to 1.8 million tons/year, resulting in a surplus capacity of 720,000 tons/year [13].

Core Viewpoint - Shenhua Co., Ltd. reported a revenue increase of 12.12% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.62% due to a significant drop in coal prices affecting profitability [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating income of 20.428 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 1.904 billion yuan [1] - Revenue from the mining sector decreased by 18.99% to 2.887 billion yuan, while revenue from non-ferrous metals increased by 20.79% to 14.182 billion yuan [2] - The company maintained a production and sales balance for its main products, with aluminum production at 871,100 tons and sales at 871,400 tons, achieving 51.24% and 51.26% of the annual plan respectively [2] Share Buyback - The company initiated a share buyback plan with a budget of 250 million to 450 million yuan, with a maximum buyback price of 20 yuan per share [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the company repurchased 15.4204 million shares, accounting for 0.686% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of 255 million yuan [3] Business Developments - Shenhua Co., Ltd. has no current plans for overseas expansion due to high investment risks and long payback periods, but is monitoring international market trends for potential opportunities [4] - The company invested 186 million yuan in Anhui Xiangbang Composite Materials Co., Ltd., acquiring a 35% stake to enhance its product value and technology in the aluminum processing sector [4] Market Outlook - The coal market is expected to stabilize and recover in the second half of 2025 due to government policies aimed at economic growth and supply-demand balance [5] - The company anticipates that aluminum prices will remain high in the second half of 2025, driven by government initiatives in key industries and green energy policies [6] - The aluminum foil industry is facing increased competition, which is eroding profit margins in the aluminum processing business [6]