Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong, with the northern port coal price reaching 834 RMB/ton, an increase of 17 RMB/ton week-on-week, as the industry anticipates an increase in daily consumption during the winter peak season [4][14][71] - The supply-demand balance in the coal market remains favorable, with stable production and a slight increase in port inventories, while non-electric demand from sectors like metallurgy and chemicals continues to support coal consumption [5][14][71] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with strong cash flows and high dividend yields, amidst market volatility and external economic pressures [7][73] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The northern port thermal coal price increased to 834 RMB/ton, with production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region stable at 89.79% [14][21] - Daily consumption at coastal and inland power plants showed a week-on-week change of -8.0 and +12.3 thousand tons, respectively, indicating a recovery phase [14][24] - The report notes a decrease in coal imports due to rising prices and lower acceptance from downstream users, while supply constraints from Indonesia and Russia are expected to limit import availability [14][71] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal production capacity utilization increased by 0.37 percentage points to 84.2%, driven by recovery in some mines in Shanxi [5][72] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port rose to 1,366 trucks, indicating stable supply [5][72] - The report anticipates that despite short-term market sentiment fluctuations, coking coal prices will remain stable due to low production and inventory levels [6][72] 3. Coke - The supply-demand balance for coke remains stable, with some steel mills accepting a price increase of 50-55 RMB/ton, effective from November 15 [6][51] - The report indicates that independent coking plants have seen a decrease in production rates, while iron output has increased, supporting demand for coke [6][58] 4. Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which exhibit strong fundamentals and growth potential [7][9][73] - It suggests that investors should consider the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of ongoing market dynamics and regulatory changes [7][73]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - Concerns over overseas electrolytic aluminum supply due to power shortages have led to aluminum prices surpassing 22,000 RMB/ton [11] - The macroeconomic environment remains favorable, with expectations of continued demand growth despite entering the traditional off-season [11] - The aluminum industry is expected to maintain high prosperity in the long term due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections Price - As of November 14, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,858.5 USD/ton, a decrease of 3.5 USD/ton week-on-week but an increase of 330.5 USD/ton year-on-year [21] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 21,840.0 RMB/ton, up 215.0 RMB/ton week-on-week and up 1,075.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [21] Production - In October 2025, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.742 million tons, an increase of 127,000 tons month-on-month and 168,000 tons year-on-year [51] - The production of alumina in October 2025 was 7.785 million tons, up 182,000 tons month-on-month and 872,000 tons year-on-year [51] Inventory - As of November 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 621,000 tons, with a slight decrease of 1,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The inventory of alumina at electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.281 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week-on-week [31] Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Price 30.55 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.65 RMB, with a PE ratio of 11.5, rated as "Buy" [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Price 14.02 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.00 RMB, with a PE ratio of 14.0, rated as "Buy" [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Price 25.73 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 2.13 RMB, with a PE ratio of 12.1, rated as "Buy" [5] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Price 11.66 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 0.84 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.8, rated as "Buy" [5] - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ): Price 25.95 RMB, EPS forecast for 2025E is 1.88 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.8, rated as "Buy" [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal has surpassed the target of 800 yuan, with the current price at 834 yuan per ton as of November 14, reflecting a slight increase. The price at Guangzhou Port has reached 880 yuan, achieving the previously set target of 750 yuan for coal-electricity profit sharing. The price increase is attributed to supply contraction and a surge in demand due to the northern cold wave [3][4] - The report outlines that the price of coking coal has rebounded significantly from a low of 1230 yuan in July to 1860 yuan per ton as of November 14, with a notable increase in futures prices as well [3][4] - The investment logic suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to follow a four-step recovery process, ultimately reaching a balance point around 860 yuan [4][13] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy-driven commodity, with price recovery expected to follow a structured process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and achieving profit-sharing targets. The ideal target price for coal-electricity profit sharing is projected to be around 750 yuan for 2025, with an anticipated price range of 800-860 yuan [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices linked to the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio suggests target prices for coking coal at 1608 yuan, 1680 yuan, 1800 yuan, and 2064 yuan corresponding to thermal coal's price targets [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment lines in the coal sector: 1. **Cyclical Logic**: Companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal Mining are highlighted for their potential in thermal coal. 2. **Dividend Logic**: Companies such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy are noted for their strong dividend potential. 3. **Diversified Aluminum Elasticity**: Companies like Shenhua Holdings and Electric Power Investment are mentioned. 4. **Growth Logic**: New Energy and Guanghui Energy are recognized for their growth potential [5][14] Key Market Indicators - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.96%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.12 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is reported at 15.9, while the PB ratio stands at 1.42, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [8][26][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several companies as key investment opportunities [6][7]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the end of the U.S. government shutdown and improving liquidity will support price performance in the metals market. It notes that macroeconomic factors, including weak economic data and interest rate cut expectations, will continue to influence metal prices positively [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.18%, while the SW Nonferrous Index rose by 0.20% during the week [3]. - Precious metals like gold and silver saw significant increases, with gold up by 1.91% and silver by 4.51% [3]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index and expectations of interest rate cuts, despite a decrease in import volumes due to operational inefficiencies at Tanzanian ports [4][48]. - Aluminum production capacity remained stable, with domestic supply holding firm. However, demand is expected to weaken as the market transitions from peak to off-peak seasons [4][27]. - The report recommends companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum for investment [4]. 2.2 Energy Metals - The report is optimistic about energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, due to sustained demand from the energy storage sector and electric vehicles. Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply shortages [5]. - Key companies recommended include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [5]. 2.3 Precious Metals - The report anticipates continued upward movement in gold and silver prices, driven by central bank purchases and weakening U.S. dollar credit. It highlights geopolitical tensions as a significant factor influencing precious metal prices [5][80]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Western Gold and Shandong Gold [5]. 3. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price changes for various metals, noting that aluminum prices are expected to range between 21,700 and 22,400 CNY/ton, while copper is projected to fluctuate between 86,000 and 89,000 CNY/ton [28][49]. - Inventory levels for aluminum and copper have shown mixed trends, with some increases in LME stocks for zinc and lead [14][50]. 4. Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for several companies, with Zijin Mining projected to have an EPS of 1.21 CNY in 2024, and Huayou Cobalt expected to reach 2.50 CNY [6].

Market Overview - The industrial metal sector experienced a decline of 2.19% on November 14, with Shenhuo Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the industrial metal sector included: - Guocheng Mining (000688) with a closing price of 25.22, up 3.40% on a trading volume of 589,400 shares and a turnover of 1.508 billion [1] - Minfa Aluminum (002578) closed at 5.00, up 2.67% with a trading volume of 3.1543 million shares and a turnover of 1.621 billion [1] - Major decliners included: - Shenhuo Co. (000933) with a closing price of 25.73, down 4.63% on a trading volume of 601,500 shares [3] - Shengda Resources (000603) closed at 24.57, down 4.51% with a trading volume of 253,700 shares [3] Capital Flow - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 3.963 billion in main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.957 billion [5] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Zijin Mining with a main fund net inflow of 132 million, but a net outflow from retail investors of 41.48 million [5] - Hai Liang Co. (002203) had a main fund net inflow of 48.92 million, but also saw a retail net outflow of 41.32 million [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (000933) reported its latest number of shareholders as 68,100 as of November 10 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has shown significant stock price appreciation this year, with a year-to-date increase of 65.76% and notable gains over various trading periods, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 12, Shenhuo's stock price increased by 2.03%, reaching 27.19 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 396 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.66%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 61.15 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 65.76% increase year-to-date, with recent trading gains of 8.54% over the last five days, 21.17% over the last 20 days, and 43.71% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. was established on August 31, 1998, and listed on August 31, 1999. The company is primarily engaged in the production, processing, and sales of aluminum products and coal, with its main revenue sources being electrolytic aluminum (69.40%), coal (14.11%), and aluminum foil (6.41%) [2]. - The company operates within the non-ferrous metals industry, specifically in the industrial metals-aluminum sector, and is associated with concepts such as non-ferrous aluminum, thermal coal, battery foil, the Belt and Road Initiative, and scarce resources [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shenhuo reported a revenue of 31.005 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.50%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.38% to 3.49 billion CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 9.422 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 5.843 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of October 31, 2025, the number of shareholders in Shenhuo decreased by 10.16% to 65,400, while the average number of circulating shares per person increased by 11.31% to 34,365 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 77.6616 million shares, an increase of 38.6067 million shares compared to the previous period [3].

Group 1: Profitability Analysis of Lithium Battery Aluminum Foil Leaders - The overall revenue growth trend for lithium battery aluminum foil leaders in the first half of 2025 is observed, but the year-on-year growth rate has slowed down, with Ding Sheng New Materials showing a 15.94% increase, a slowdown of 8.63 percentage points compared to the previous year [2][3] - The highest revenue growth rate is recorded by Yongjie New Materials at 18.61%, followed closely by Dongyangguang at 18.48% [2][3] - The gross profit margin for aluminum foil leaders is generally declining, with Dongyangguang having the highest margin at 20.14% and Wanshun New Materials the lowest at 5.33% [2][3] Group 2: Net Profit Situation - The lithium battery aluminum foil industry faced profit pressure in the first half of 2025, with most companies experiencing a year-on-year decline in net profit. Dongyangguang recorded the fastest growth at 10.57%, followed by Yongjie New Materials at 13.62% [4][5] - The net profit margin is declining for most companies, with Shenhuo Co., Ltd. having the highest net profit margin at 11.02% and Wanshun New Materials at -1.97% [4][5] Group 3: Shipment Volume Analysis - The shipment volume of lithium battery aluminum foil showed an overall growth trend in the first half of 2025, with Wanshun New Materials reporting a slight decline of 4.7% in aluminum foil sales, totaling 51,000 tons [7] - Xinjiang Zhonghe achieved electronic aluminum foil product sales of 9,737.26 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.79% [7] - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. reported aluminum foil sales of 49,800 tons, completing 36.89% of its annual plan [7] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis Ding Sheng New Materials - Ding Sheng New Materials focuses on the research, production, and sales of aluminum foil products, with total assets of approximately 25.99 billion yuan and a revenue of 13.31 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a 15.94% year-on-year increase [8][10] - The company is actively expanding its market and accelerating the production of overseas bases, becoming the largest battery aluminum foil manufacturer globally [8][9] Dongyangguang - Dongyangguang's revenue in the first half of 2025 reached 7.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.48%, with a net profit of 613 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 170.57% [11][13] - The company is focusing on high-value-added products and enhancing its competitive edge through technological upgrades [12][13] Wanshun New Materials - Wanshun New Materials reported a revenue of 2.692 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 10.11%, with a net profit of -53.06 million yuan, a decrease of 469% [16][17] - The company is actively developing new products to meet the demands of downstream battery customers [16][17] Xinjiang Zhonghe - Xinjiang Zhonghe achieved a revenue of 4.003 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.95%, with a net profit of 391 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 38.48% [20][21] - The company is focusing on expanding its market share by adjusting its product structure based on customer needs [18][19] Ming Tai Aluminum - Ming Tai Aluminum reported a revenue of 17 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with a net profit of 940 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 12.11% [25][26] - The company is committed to high-end manufacturing and low-carbon circular economy [23][24] Chang Aluminum - Chang Aluminum achieved a revenue of 4.157 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.63%, with a net profit of 26 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 16.97% [31][32] - The company is focusing on providing materials for the automotive industry, including battery structures and cooling systems [29][30] Yongjie New Materials - Yongjie New Materials reported a revenue of 4.427 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.61%, with a net profit of 186 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.62% [35][36] - The company is enhancing its product offerings in the lithium battery sector and optimizing its product structure [34][35] Shenhuo Co., Ltd. - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 20.43 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.12%, with a net profit of 1.904 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 16.62% [40][41] - The company is focusing on high-quality aluminum foil products for the battery industry [38][39]

Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. reported that as of October 31, the latest number of shareholders is 65,400 [2] Summary by Category - **Company Information** - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has a total of 65,400 shareholders as of the end of October [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The overall industrial metal prices have experienced a decline, particularly in the overseas market, primarily due to liquidity issues in the US banking system. The government shutdown has led to a tightening of cash balances, impacting global risk assets. Concerns over power shortages in North America due to data center developments have raised fears of production halts in high-energy-consuming sectors like aluminum and zinc, resulting in relatively strong prices for these commodities. The lithium industry has seen a turnaround, with improving supply-demand fundamentals. The uncertainty in overseas resource development and weak profitability due to low lithium prices have peaked capital expenditures in the industry by 2024-2025, with a confirmed trend of declining supply growth from 2026 to 2028. By 2026, equity values are expected to outperform commodity prices, potentially leading the market out of a downturn [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The ongoing US government shutdown has heightened risk aversion, which is expected to drive gold prices higher in the short term. The report emphasizes that gold prices are currently stabilizing rather than indicating a trend reversal. Historically, gold prices tend to peak early in a rate-cutting cycle, and the current macroeconomic environment suggests that gold may not have reached its peak yet. The report maintains a positive outlook for gold, suggesting that the market is entering a phase of systematic re-evaluation [4]. Industrial Metals - The report highlights a long-term positive outlook for copper and aluminum. Recent price adjustments in these metals are attributed to liquidity issues in the US. The report notes that copper inventories have increased by 4.68% week-on-week and 25.01% year-on-year, while aluminum inventories have decreased by 0.49% week-on-week and 13.31% year-on-year. The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term economic outlook and supply-demand structure will favor a strong cycle for copper and aluminum [4][5]. Energy and Minor Metals - The lithium sector is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle. The report indicates that the darkest period for the lithium industry has passed, with a clear trend of improving supply-demand fundamentals. The demand for lithium is projected to grow significantly due to stable domestic power needs and the acceleration of solid-state battery industrialization. The report also highlights the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with expectations of a new upward trend in prices due to supply constraints and increased demand [5][24]. Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the high concentration of supply in cobalt and nickel, with specific attention to the Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt quotas and Indonesia's tightening supply policies for nickel. These factors are expected to support long-term price increases for both cobalt and nickel, benefiting resource-oriented companies [5][24].