Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is a recommendation rating for Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (000933.SZ) at a latest price of 19.01 yuan [2] - The report highlights that both the volume and price of electrolytic aluminum have increased, while costs have seen a slight rise [2] - It notes a significant decline in coal prices, which negatively impacts the performance of the coal sector [2] Group 2 - The report includes risk factors such as the possibility of electrolytic aluminum demand falling short of expectations [2] - It also mentions the risk of coal prices decreasing more than anticipated [2] - Additionally, there is a concern regarding the progress of the aluminum foil project not meeting expectations [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 20.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.90 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.6% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights that the performance was primarily impacted by coal prices, while the electrolytic aluminum segment saw both volume and price increases [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.18 billion yuan, 6.20 billion yuan, and 6.57 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 times [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company produced 871,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, a 16.2% increase year-on-year, and achieved a market price of 20,300 yuan per ton, up 2.6% year-on-year [2]. - The coal segment produced 3.708 million tons, a 14.9% increase year-on-year, but the selling price dropped to 773 yuan per ton, a decline of 30.6% [3]. - The company reported investment income of 250 million yuan in H1 2025, mainly due to increased profits from associated companies [3]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the cost advantages of electrolytic aluminum production in Xinjiang due to stable electricity prices and low coal prices, which are expected to enhance profitability [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in coal prices, which could reduce the performance drag from the coal segment [3][4]. - The low valuation and high earnings elasticity of the company are expected to catalyze stock price appreciation [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the growth in China's alumina production, with a projected output of 7.75 million tons by June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [1] - In the first half of 2025, China's cumulative alumina production reached 45.151 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 9.3% [1] - The report referenced is the "2025-2031 China Alumina Industry Development Model Analysis and Future Outlook Report" published by Zhiyan Consulting [1] Group 2 - Listed companies in the alumina sector include China Aluminum (601600), Tianshan Aluminum (002532), Nanshan Aluminum (600219), Yun Aluminum (000807), Shenhuo Co., Ltd. (000933), Zhongfu Industrial (600595), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), Hongchuang Holdings (002379), Minfa Aluminum (002578), and Ningbo Fubang (600768) [1]

投资建议：维持"优于大市"评级 新疆神火盈利能力依然最强，2025H1 净利润达到12.4 亿元，如果销量是40万吨，那么吨净利润3088 元；云南神火迎来投产后首个满产年度，2025H1净利润9.83 亿元，如果销量是47 万吨，那么吨净利润 2091 元。 风险提示：氧化铝涨价风险，铝价下跌风险，煤炭价格下跌风险。 2025H1 公司归母净利润下降17%。2025H1实现营收204.3亿元（同比+12.1%），归母净利润19 亿元 （同比-16.6%），扣非归母净利润20.1 亿元（同比-6.8%），经营活动产生的现金流量净额44.3 亿元。 公司盈利下降主因煤炭价格下跌。2025H1 煤炭产量371 万吨恢复正常，产量增加，成本下降，2025H1 煤炭业务生产成本682 元/吨，比2024 年862 元/吨有明显下降。但是煤炭价格下降更多，2025H1 煤炭售 价773 元/吨，比2024年下降260 元/吨。2025H1 煤炭单吨毛利润91 元，比2024 年下降78 元。自6 月底 开始，焦煤价格触底反弹，截至8 月中旬，永城无烟煤和许昌贫瘦煤价格已反弹200-300 元/吨，三季度 公司煤炭版块盈 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][23]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17% in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 20.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. The net profit was 1.9 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.01 billion yuan, down 6.8% year-on-year. The net cash flow from operating activities was 4.43 billion yuan [5][6]. - The decline in profitability is primarily due to falling coal prices. In the first half of 2025, coal production was 3.71 million tons, returning to normal levels, with production costs decreasing to 682 yuan per ton from 862 yuan per ton in 2024. However, coal prices fell more significantly, with an average selling price of 773 yuan per ton, down 260 yuan per ton from 2024. The gross profit per ton of coal was 91 yuan, a decrease of 78 yuan from 2024. Starting from the end of June, coking coal prices have rebounded, and the profitability of the coal segment is expected to improve in the third quarter [5][6]. - The electrolytic aluminum segment showed stable profitability, with production reaching 870,000 tons in the first half of 2025, marking the first full production year since the establishment of Yunnan Shenhuo. The operating cost for electrolytic aluminum was 12,283 yuan per ton, with a gross profit of 3,986 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the full year of 2024 [2][5]. Financial Forecasts and Key Indicators - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 39.606 billion yuan, 39.827 billion yuan, and 39.827 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.56 billion yuan, 4.78 billion yuan, and 4.84 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.9%, 4.9%, and 1.2% [3][21]. - The diluted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 2.03 yuan, 2.13 yuan, and 2.15 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 9.5x, 9.0x, and 8.9x [2][21]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic electrolytic aluminum market, benefiting from structural reforms in supply-side management and is currently in an industry upcycle. With the end of large-scale capital expenditures, there is potential for increased dividends [2][21].

煤炭价格下跌拖累公司业绩，氧化铝价格下行带动电解铝板块利润修复。2025年上半年，国内电解铝、 河南氧化铝平均价格同比+2.7%、-2.1%，永城无烟精煤、瘦煤、平顶山动力煤平均价格同 比-23%、-31%、-17%；其中二季度，国内电解铝平均价格20196 元/吨，同比-1.7%，环比-1.2%，氧化 铝平均3071 元/吨，同比-16%，环比-19%，永城无烟精煤、瘦煤、平顶山动力煤平均价格935元/吨、 1153 元/吨、496 元/吨，分别同比-30%、-27%、-21%，分别环比-12%、-6%、-17%。氧化铝下跌部分 抵消煤炭价格下滑对利润影响，公司上半年归母净利润为19.04 亿元，同比下降16.62%，Q2 归母净利 润11.96 亿元，同比增长0.22%，环比增长68.89%。分子公司看，上半年云南神火净利润9.83 亿元，同 比+79%，新疆煤电净利润12.35 亿元，同比+3.2%，新龙公司净利润0.83 亿元，同比-71%，兴隆公司净 利润0.32 亿元，同比-90%。 公司期间费用下降&联营公司投资收益增加一定程度弥补业绩。2025 年上半年，公司实现销售+管理 +研发+财务费用总 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. reported a decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in coal prices, despite a year-on-year increase in revenue [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 20.428 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.12% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.904 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 16.62% [2]. - The coal mining business revenue decreased by 18.99% to 2.887 billion yuan, while the non-ferrous metal business revenue increased by 20.79% to 14.182 billion yuan [3]. Production and Sales - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. maintained a balance between production and sales for its main products in the first half of 2025, with aluminum production at 871,100 tons and sales at 871,400 tons, both achieving around 51% of the annual plan [3]. - Coal production was 3.7078 million tons with sales of 3.7275 million tons, also around 51% of the annual plan [3]. - The company’s coal reserves were reported at 1.308 billion tons, with a recoverable reserve of 605 million tons [3]. Share Buyback - The board approved a share buyback plan on December 30, 2024, with a budget of 250 million to 450 million yuan, at a price not exceeding 20 yuan per share [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, the company had repurchased 15.4204 million shares, accounting for 0.686% of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of 255 million yuan [4]. Business Developments - Shenhuo Co., Ltd. has no current plans for overseas expansion due to high investment risks and long payback periods [5][6]. - The company invested 186 million yuan in Anhui Xiangbang Composite Materials Co., acquiring a 35% stake, aiming to enhance the value and technology of aluminum processing products [6]. Market Outlook - The coal market is expected to experience a supply-demand balance and potential price stabilization in the second half of 2025, driven by national growth policies [6]. - The company anticipates that aluminum prices will remain high in the second half of 2025 due to government initiatives in key industries [6]. - The aluminum foil industry is facing increased competition, which is impacting profit margins for the company’s aluminum processing business [6].

格隆汇8月19日｜国盛证券研报指出，神火股份2025H1归母净利润19亿元，同比-17%，归母净利同比下 降主因公司主营产品煤炭售价大幅下降，煤炭产品盈利能力减弱。单季来看，25Q1/Q2实现营收96/108 亿元，同比+17%/+8%；归母净利润7/12亿元，同比-35%/+0.2%，Q2环比+69%。随着煤炭价格6月底止 跌企稳，下半年煤炭业务利润弹性或增大。优良的产品质量和品牌影响力为公司产品保持市场竞争地位 奠定了基础，公司与宝武钢铁等国内大型冶金企业建立了稳定的战略合作关系。公司作为铝行业领军企 业，充分享受滇新电解铝双基地成本优势，水电铝享低碳溢价，电解铝业务利润弹性较大。煤炭业务已 出现拐点，公司估值待重估。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.12%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 16.62% to 1.904 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 20.428 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.904 billion yuan, showing a decline of 16.62% compared to the previous year [1] - The non-recurring net profit was 2.010 billion yuan, down 6.79% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The non-ferrous metal business generated revenue of 14.182 billion yuan, an increase of 20.79% year-on-year, driven by the full production capacity of the Yunnan hydropower aluminum project [1] - The coal business saw a revenue decrease of 18.99% to 2.887 billion yuan due to a significant drop in selling prices, but the company holds a substantial coal reserve of 1.308 billion tons [1] - The company is involved in the Xinjiang Zhuandong Wucaiwan open-pit mine project, which is currently processing exploration rights, indicating potential future growth in coal production and sales [1] Group 3: Production Capacity - The company has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 1.7 million tons per year, with additional capacities for anode carbon blocks and aluminum foil [1] - In the first half of 2025, the production of aluminum products reached 871,100 tons, with sales of 871,400 tons, achieving approximately 51.24% and 51.26% of the annual production and sales targets, respectively [1]

神火股份2025半年报 ...