证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 03月 27日 神火股份（000933.SZ） 2023 年价格下跌拖累业绩，静待铝业务释放弹性 财务指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 买入（首次评级） 营业收入（百万元） 42,704 37,625 39,669 42,380 44,954 股票信息 增长率yoy（%） 23.8 -11.9 5.4 6.8 6.1 归母净利润（百万元） 7,578 5,905 6,283 6,825 7,348 行业 有色金属 增长率yoy（%） 134.1 -22.1 6.4 8.6 7.6 2024年3月26日收盘价（元） 19.74 ROE（%） 40.5 27.7 24.1 21.5 19.5 总市值（百万元） 44,409.24 EPS最新摊薄（元） 3.37 2.62 2.79 3.03 3.27 流通市值（百万元） 44,187.31 P/E（倍） 5.9 7.5 7.1 6.5 6.0 总股本（百万股） 2,249.71 P/B（倍） 2.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.2 流通股本（百万股） 2,238.47 资料来源：公司财报 ...

神火股份（000933.SZ）2023年报点评 税率调整驱动业绩超预期，成本优势构建公司核心竞争力 2024年03月27日 ➢ 事件：公司发布2023年年报。2023年，公司实现营收376.25亿元，同比 推荐 维持评级 下降11.89%；归母净利润59.05亿元，同比下降22.07%；扣非归母净利58.20 当前价格： 19.00元 亿元，同比下降25.16%。2023Q4，公司实现营收89.96亿元，同比下降14.90%、 环比下降5.50%；归母净利润18.03亿元，同比上升5.07%、环比上升32.28%； 扣非归母净利17.72亿元，同比下降0.13%，环比上升35.73%。公司2023年 每股派息 0.8 元（含税），现金分红总额 18 亿（含税），分红比例 30.48%， [T able_Author] 按3月26日收盘价测算股息率4.05%。 ➢ 煤铝价格下降，23年业绩下滑。量：2023年电解铝产量151.80万吨，同 比下降7.16%，主要因为2023年云南电解铝复产较晚；煤炭产量716.96万吨， 同比增加 5.25%，主要因为梁北煤矿产能释放，以及检修少；铝箔产量 8.09 万 吨，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 23.12 CNY, indicating an expected increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [5][17]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 annual report shows that it achieved a revenue of 37.625 billion CNY, a decrease of 11.89% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.905 billion CNY, down 22.07% year-on-year [2][4]. - The decline in performance is attributed to falling coal prices and reduced aluminum production in Yunnan, leading to a decrease in net profit by approximately 1.7 billion CNY [2][3]. - Despite the challenges, the acquisition of additional equity in Yunnan Shenhuo is expected to increase net profit by about 250 million CNY, and tax incentives may further enhance profitability [3]. - The company plans to expand its aluminum foil production capacity to 140,000 tons by mid-2024, targeting growth in the battery aluminum foil market [3]. Financial Summary - The company reported a gross profit of 9.9 billion CNY in 2023, a decline of 25.81% year-on-year, with a significant drop in gross profit per ton for coal and aluminum [2][4]. - The projected net profits for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 5.8 billion CNY, 6.8 billion CNY, and 7.9 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.58 CNY, 3.03 CNY, and 3.52 CNY [4][12]. - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 30.5% for 2023, distributing a total of 1.8 billion CNY in cash dividends [3][4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 19.74 CNY, with a market capitalization of approximately 44.409 billion CNY [5]. - The company has a P/E ratio of 7.5 and a P/B ratio of 2.2 for 2023, indicating a relatively attractive valuation compared to historical performance [4][5].

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 03月 27日 （维持） 证券研究报告•2023年年报点评 当前价： 19.74元 神火股份（000933） 有色金属 目标价： ——元（6个月） 电解铝量价齐跌拖累业绩，煤炭增量可期 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T ab事le件_S：u公m司ma发ry布] 2023年度报告，全年实现营收376.3亿元，同比-11.9%；归母 [分Ta析bl师e_：Au黄th腾or飞] 净利润 59.1亿元，同比-22.1%；扣非归母净利润 58.2亿元，同比-25.2%。其 执业证号：S1250523070010 中 Q4实现归母净利润18.0亿元，环比+32.3%；Q4扣非归母净利润17.7亿元， 电话：13651914586 环比+35.7%。 邮箱：htengf@swsc.com.cn  行业层面：电解铝长期供需缺口放大，铝价中枢有望阶梯式上移。2024年电解 [相Tab对le指_Q数u表ot现eP ic] 铝平衡表预测紧平衡，库存将维持历史低位，对价格形成强支撑。2024年假定 神火股份 沪深300 西南地区来水中性，预测产量增速2.3%，考虑到房地产 ...

公司研 究 证 券研究 报 告 铝 2024年03月27日 神 火股份（000933）2023年报点评 推 荐 （维持） 目标价：22.01元 资源共舞，保持高盈利 当前价：19.74元 事项： 华创证券研究所  神火股份发布2023年年度报告，2023年实现营业收入约376.25亿元，同比减 证券分析师：马金龙 少11.89%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 59.05亿元，同比减少22.07%；基 本每股收益2.65元，同比减少21.83%。 邮箱：majinlong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120003 评论： 证券分析师：刘岗  2023年电解铝销量同比下降9.9万吨，煤炭销量同比增长50.0万吨。2023年 度公司生产电解铝 151.80万吨，销售 152.73 万吨，销量同比减少 9.9万吨， 邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com 同比下降6.07%，主因公司子公司云南神火减产；煤炭方面，2023年度公司生 执业编号：S0360522120002 产煤炭 716.96 万吨，销售 724.77 万吨，销量同比增加 50.0 万吨，同比增长 证券分析师：巩学鹏 7.41%， ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 神火股份：铝价下降拖累业绩，煤炭产量逐步释放 公司研究 [Table_ReportDate] 2024年3月26日 [Table_ReportType] 日 公司点评报告 [T ➢a ble事_S件um：ma公ry司] 发布 2023 年业绩报告，2023 年实现归母净利 59.05 亿元 [T神ab火le股_S份to（ck00A0nd93Ra3n）k ] （同比-22.07%）。Q4实现归母净利润18.03亿元（同比+4.72%，环比 +32.23%）。2023年合计派息0.8元/股（含税），股利支付率30.48%， 投资评级 买入 股息率4%（以2024年3月26日收盘价为准）。 上次评级 买入 ➢ 铝价下降拖累业绩，煤炭产量逐步释放：量：2023 年公司电解铝产量 151.8 万吨（同比下降 11.7 万吨）；煤炭产量 716.96 万吨（同比增加 [T张ab l e航_A u t金ho属r]& 新材料行业首席分析师 35.74 万吨）；炭素产量 54.49 万吨（同比增加 1.75 万吨）；铝箔产量 8.09 万吨（同比下降 0.06 万吨）。公司电解铝产量同 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 神火股份(000933.SZ) 2024年03月26日 神火股份（000933.SZ）：业绩符 买入（维持） 所属行业：有色金属/工业金属 合预期，维持优质盈利 当前价格(元)：20.04 证券分析师 投资要点 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 事件：公司发布2023年年报。2023年公司实现营业收入376.3亿元，同比-11.89%；  邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 归母净利润59.1亿元，同比-22.07%；扣非后归母净利润58.2亿元，同比-25.16%。 薛磊 单季度来看，23Q4实现营业收入96.0亿元，同比-9.15%，环比+0.86%；归母净 资格编号：S0120524020001 利润 14.7 亿，同比-14.38%，环比-0.33%；扣非后归母净利润 14.4 亿元，同比 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn -18.91%，环比+1.58%。 研究助理 财务方面：利息费用、所得税同比大幅下降。近年来，煤铝维持高景气，受益于 谢佶圆  优秀回款能力，现金流较为充沛，在无大额资本开支的背景下，资产 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2023 was CNY 37.63 billion, a decrease of 11.89% compared to CNY 42.70 billion in 2022[23]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was CNY 5.91 billion, down 22.07% from CNY 7.57 billion in 2022[23]. - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 20.42% to CNY 11.19 billion in 2023 from CNY 14.06 billion in 2022[23]. - The basic earnings per share for 2023 was CNY 2.65, a decline of 21.83% compared to CNY 3.39 in 2022[23]. - The total assets at the end of 2023 were CNY 57.86 billion, a decrease of 4.33% from CNY 60.48 billion at the end of 2022[23]. - The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 23.45% to CNY 19.83 billion at the end of 2023 from CNY 16.06 billion at the end of 2022[23]. - The company reported a significant decrease in the weighted average return on equity, dropping by 23.78 percentage points to 33.61% in 2023 from 57.52% in 2022[23]. - The company generated total operating revenue of 37.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.905 billion yuan, down 22.07%[56]. - The average price decline for main products was significant, with coal, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum foil prices dropping by 284.42 yuan/ton, 945.32 yuan/ton, and 4,806.53 yuan/ton respectively[56]. - The company’s gross profit margin for the non-ferrous metal sector was 23.87%, down 2.83% year-on-year, while the coal sector's gross profit margin was 42.43%, down 10.39%[59]. Dividend and Shareholder Information - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.00 RMB per 10 shares to all shareholders, based on a total of 2,249,708,409 shares[4]. - The cash dividend amount distributed was ¥1,799,766,727.20, representing 100% of the profit distribution total[170]. - The cash dividend per 10 shares was set at ¥8.00 (including tax), with a total share base of 2,249,708,409 shares[170]. - The company maintained a stable and continuous profit distribution policy, with recent proposals for cash dividends based on financial conditions and development needs[168]. - The board of directors has consistently revised the profit distribution policy in accordance with regulations, ensuring the protection of minority shareholders' rights[168]. Corporate Governance - The company emphasizes the importance of accurate financial reporting and has ensured that all board members attended the meeting to review the annual report[4]. - The board of directors consists of 9 members, including 5 independent directors, and has held 12 meetings, all in compliance with legal and regulatory requirements[134]. - The supervisory board, comprising 3 members, conducted 9 meetings, ensuring oversight of major company matters and compliance with laws and regulations[135]. - The company has established a robust internal control system, continuously updated since 2011, to ensure effective governance and compliance[131]. - The company operates independently from its controlling shareholder, with clear separation in assets, personnel, finance, operations, and institutions[138]. - The company has no financial personnel working part-time in related entities, maintaining an independent accounting system and financial management[139]. - The company has successfully integrated the coal and aluminum assets from its controlling shareholder, ensuring no substantial competition exists between them[139]. - The company has implemented effective investor relations management to enhance communication and transparency with shareholders[131]. - The board and its committees have actively contributed to the company's governance, with specialized committees holding 10 meetings during the reporting period[134]. Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company has a commitment to environmental and social responsibility, as detailed in the report[5]. - The company operates several subsidiaries that are classified as key pollutant discharge units, adhering to multiple environmental protection laws and standards[190]. - The company has obtained and renewed pollution discharge permits for its subsidiaries, with valid periods extending up to 2028 for several entities[191]. - The Xinjiang Coal Power subsidiary completed a low-emission transformation project in August 2023, approved by the local environmental authority[192]. - The company reported a total nitrogen oxide emissions of 20.301 tons, which is below the approved limit of 35 tons per year[194]. - The sulfur dioxide emissions from the company were recorded at 1.825 tons, significantly lower than the annual limit of 17.4 tons[194]. - The company achieved a nitrogen oxide emission concentration of 36.7 mg/m³, well under the standard limit of 100 mg/m³[194]. - The company has implemented new technology modifications to enhance environmental management and reduce pollutant emissions[195]. - The company has established a comprehensive environmental management system to promote clean production and reduce environmental impact[195]. Operational Focus and Market Strategy - The company has highlighted its operational focus on coal and power generation, with specific references to its various subsidiaries and product offerings[14]. - The company is the fourth largest coal producer in Henan province, with a focus on high-quality anthracite and lean coal, achieving a clean coal output rate of approximately 75%[42]. - The company benefits from proximity to energy demand markets, with its coal products primarily sold to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei, Hunan, and Chongqing regions, enhancing economic efficiency[42]. - The company aims to enhance its market share by leveraging its advanced production equipment and strong technical team, which includes world-class machinery from Germany[45]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the dual-zero aluminum foil segment, focusing on high-quality products such as high-precision electronic electrode aluminum foil[45]. - The company is focusing on improving the melting efficiency of medium-frequency furnaces, which will lower energy consumption and meet green development requirements[71]. - The company is advancing its digital transformation and smart manufacturing initiatives to enhance competitiveness in the industry[124]. - The company aims to strengthen capital operations and explore opportunities in new energy, new materials, and clean coal utilization[116]. Research and Development - The company reported a significant increase in R&D expenses, which rose by 133.45% to 429,028,315.67 yuan due to increased investment in research and development[70]. - The company increased its R&D personnel from 1,636 in 2022 to 2,750 in 2023, representing a growth of 68.09%[76]. - R&D investment rose significantly to approximately ¥434.61 million in 2023, up 121.46% from ¥196.25 million in 2022, with R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue increasing from 0.46% to 1.16%[76]. - The company is investing 200 million yuan in research and development for new technologies aimed at improving operational efficiency[148]. - Investment in new technology development increased by 30% in 2023, focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and sustainability[150]. Risk Management - The company has outlined potential risks that may adversely affect its future development strategies and operational goals in the management discussion section[4]. - The company faces risks including market price fluctuations of major products, safety risks in coal mining, and environmental compliance challenges[117]. - Risk management measures are being strengthened to mitigate financial and operational risks, including optimizing asset-liability structures[125]. Future Outlook - The company provided a positive outlook for 2024, projecting a revenue growth of 12% to 15% based on market expansion strategies and new product launches[149]. - The expected total operating revenue for 2024 is 37.3 billion yuan, with a total profit of 6.2 billion yuan[118]. - The company plans to produce 1.5 million tons of aluminum products, 6.9 million tons of raw coal, 535,000 tons of carbon products, 97,500 tons of aluminum foil, 165,000 tons of cold-rolled products, 50,000 tons of coking coal, and supply (sell) 11.97 billion kWh of electricity in 2024[118].

2024 年 03 月 26 日 公司研究 评级：买入 (维持 ) 研究所： [Table_Title] 业绩环比提升明显，所得税调整增厚利润 Q4 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王璇 S0350523080001 ——神火股份（ ） 年报点评 000933 2023 wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 事件 : 2024年3月25日，神火股份发布2023年年度报告：2023年公司实现 营业收入376.3亿元，同比-11.9%；归母净利润59.1亿元，同比-22.1%； 扣非后归母净利润58.2亿元，同比-25.2%。 分季度看，2023年第四季度，公司实现营业收入90.0亿元，环比-5.5%， 同比-14.9%；归母净利润18.0亿元，环比+32.2%，同比+4.7%；扣非后 归母净利润17.7亿元，环比+35.7%，同比-0.4%。 投资要点 : 相对沪深300表现 2024/03/25 表现 1M 3M 12M 神火股份 8.3% 21.8% 16.3%  2023年业绩下滑的主要原因是2023年煤炭、电解铝、 ...

有色金属/工业金属 公 司 研 神火股份（000933.SZ） 收购云南神火股权增厚业绩，看好煤铝增量 究 2024年03月26日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 张绪成（分析师） 汤悦（联系人） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn tangyue@kysec.cn 证 书编号：S0790520020003 证书编号：S0790123030035 日期 2024/3/25  收购云南神火股权增厚业绩，看好煤铝增量。维持“买入”评级 当前股价(元) 20.04 公司发布2023年报，2023年公司实现营业收入376.3亿元，同比-11.9%；实现 公 一年最高最低(元) 20.52/12.59 归母净利润 59.1 亿元，同比-22.1%；其中 Q4 实现营业收入 89.96 亿元，环比 司 -5.5%；实现归母净利润18.0亿元，环比+32.3%。考虑到2024年一季度市场煤 信 总市值(亿元) 450.84 价下行。我们下调2024-2025年盈利预测并新增2026年盈利预测，预计2024-2026 息 流通市值(亿元) 448.59 年归母净利润 62.8/69.1/74.2 亿元 ...