Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [13][15][41] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth of 4.8% in Q1 2024, reaching 1.35 billion yuan, despite a high base effect. The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 2.1% to 250 million yuan, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 6.9% to 235 million yuan. The gross margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 67.8% [15][21] - The company maintains a healthy inventory level, with inventory turnover days remaining stable at 241 days and total inventory decreasing by 0.6% to 1.07 billion yuan [15][21] - The long-term growth outlook remains positive, with expected net profits of 810 million, 920 million, and 1.04 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.8%, 14.4%, and 12.5% [16][21] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total market capitalization of 8.099 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 6.532 billion yuan. The closing price was 5.55 yuan, with a reasonable valuation range of 8.00 to 8.50 yuan [13][15] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 5.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [23][37] Profitability Metrics - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 808 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 17.0% [23][37] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.0 [23][37] Market Position - The company is positioned in the mid-to-high-end menswear market, with a focus on brand expansion and maintaining a competitive edge through effective marketing strategies [15][21] - The brand "Haggis" has shown a strong store expansion momentum, with a net increase of 9.6% in stores to 457 by the end of 2023 [22][21]

Revenue and Profitability - Revenue for Q1 2024 reached ¥1,352,909,154.08, an increase of 4.84% compared to ¥1,290,475,906.50 in the same period last year[5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.09% to ¥250,232,447.93 from ¥255,586,126.25 year-on-year[5] - Net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses increased by 6.93% to ¥234,976,735.16 from ¥219,758,210.21 in the previous year[5] - Operating profit for the quarter was ¥321,533,195.61, slightly up from ¥320,757,163.73, indicating a stable performance[29] - Net profit before tax was ¥321,500,742.81, compared to ¥320,496,586.09 in the previous year, showing a marginal increase[29] - The company reported a net profit of ¥257,526,932.68 after tax, compared to ¥259,876,943.93 in the same quarter last year[29] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was approximately ¥250.23 million, a decrease from ¥255.59 million in the previous period, representing a decline of about 2.6%[31] - The total comprehensive income attributable to the parent company was approximately ¥250.23 million, compared to ¥255.59 million in the previous period, indicating a decrease of around 2.1%[31] - The company reported a basic and diluted earnings per share of ¥0.17, down from ¥0.18 in the previous period, indicating a decrease of approximately 5.6%[31] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Operating cash flow net amount dropped significantly by 88.29% to ¥17,524,605.83 from ¥149,651,136.62 year-on-year[5] - The net cash flow from operating activities was ¥17.52 million, significantly lower than ¥149.65 million in the previous period, reflecting a decline of approximately 88.3%[34] - Cash inflows from operating activities totaled ¥1.24 billion, an increase from ¥1.17 billion in the previous period, marking a growth of about 5.7%[34] - Cash outflows from operating activities increased to ¥1.22 billion, compared to ¥1.02 billion in the previous period, representing a rise of approximately 19.4%[34] - The net cash flow from investing activities was approximately ¥468.90 million, up from ¥132.09 million in the previous period, indicating a significant increase of about 254.5%[36] - The net cash flow from financing activities was approximately ¥78.22 million, a turnaround from a negative cash flow of ¥2.67 million in the previous period[36] - The cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period reached approximately ¥2.36 billion, compared to ¥1.67 billion at the end of the previous period, reflecting an increase of about 41.5%[36] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were ¥7,034,198,062.15, a slight decrease of 0.30% from ¥7,055,130,923.81 at the end of the previous year[5] - Total current assets amount to 4,579,166,591.66 RMB, slightly up from 4,559,113,104.71 RMB at the beginning of the period[23] - Total liabilities decreased to ¥2,306,209,576.34 from ¥2,584,800,826.33, indicating improved financial health[25] - The total equity increased to ¥4,727,988,485.81 from ¥4,470,330,097.48, reflecting a growth of 5.8%[25] - The company maintained a stable long-term debt level at ¥47,427,622.87, unchanged from the previous period[25] Shareholder Information - Total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 48,891[12] - Major shareholder Wu Zhize holds 25.20% of shares, totaling 367,777,954 shares[12] - Major shareholder Wu Tingting holds 12.72% of shares, totaling 185,564,542 shares[12] - The company has a significant number of pledged shares, with Wu Zhize pledging 86,750,000 shares and Wu Tingting pledging 97,850,000 shares[12] - The company has not reported any changes in major shareholders or their relationships during the reporting period[17] Expenses - Total operating costs amounted to ¥1,030,618,369.04, up from ¥996,570,336.19, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.4%[29] - Research and development expenses totaled ¥21,578,618.85, a decrease from ¥22,000,890.90, indicating a focus on cost management[29] - Sales expenses increased to ¥489,485,222.59 from ¥449,436,103.83, reflecting a rise of 8.9% year-over-year[29] Government Subsidies and Investment Income - The company received government subsidies amounting to ¥19,301,042.91, a decrease of 59.55% compared to ¥47,713,527.64 in the same period last year[11] - Investment income fell by 81.73% to ¥1,364,358.07 from ¥7,469,074.83 year-on-year due to fewer project exits[11] - The total cash inflow from investment activities was approximately ¥571.19 million, compared to ¥229.05 million in the previous period, representing an increase of about 149.0%[34] - The company’s financial expenses increased by 534.41% to -¥10,593,351.82, primarily due to increased interest income from bank deposits[11]

Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 48,891, with the largest shareholder, Wu Zhize, holding 25.20% of shares[7]. Financial Position - The company's cash and cash equivalents increased to approximately ¥2.46 billion from ¥1.89 billion at the beginning of the period, representing a growth of 30%[10]. - The total current assets amounted to approximately ¥4.58 billion, slightly up from ¥4.56 billion at the beginning of the period[10]. - The company's long-term equity investments increased to approximately ¥245.90 million from ¥233.69 million, reflecting a growth of 5.2%[10]. - The total assets of the company decreased slightly to approximately ¥7.03 billion from ¥7.06 billion[10]. - The inventory decreased to approximately ¥1.07 billion from ¥1.15 billion, indicating a reduction of about 7.5%[10]. - The company reported a total of 16 million in trading financial assets, down from approximately ¥570 million, indicating a significant decrease[10]. - The company maintains a strong liquidity position with current assets exceeding current liabilities[10]. - The total assets at the end of the period were ¥7,034,198,062.15, a slight decrease of 0.30% from ¥7,055,130,923.81 at the end of the previous year[50]. - Total liabilities decreased from ¥2,584.80 million to ¥2,306.21 million, reflecting a reduction of approximately 10.7%[57]. - The total current liabilities decreased from ¥2,476.67 million to ¥2,201.73 million, a reduction of approximately 11.1%[57]. - The total owner's equity increased from ¥4,470.33 million to ¥4,727.99 million, showing a growth of about 5.8%[57]. - The company's retained earnings increased from ¥1,762.02 million to ¥2,012.25 million, representing a growth of about 14.2%[57]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 88.29% to ¥17,524,605.83 compared to ¥149,651,136.62 in the previous year[36]. - Cash inflow from investment activities increased by 149.37% to ¥571,187,465.27 from ¥229,052,935.44 year-on-year[36]. - The net cash flow from investment activities surged by 254.99% to ¥468,903,925.21 compared to ¥132,088,390.48 in the previous year[36]. - Cash inflow from financing activities rose by 61.66% to ¥248,959,262.67 from ¥154,000,000.00 year-on-year[36]. - The net cash flow from financing activities increased significantly by 3035.07% to ¥78,222,294.83 compared to -¥2,665,089.68 in the previous year[36]. - The total cash and cash equivalents increased by 102.40% to ¥564,613,071.62 from ¥278,962,113.43 year-on-year[36]. - The company recovered cash from investments amounting to ¥569,992,000.00, a 173.26% increase from ¥208,589,151.64 in the previous year[36]. - The operating cash flow net amount was ¥17,524,605.83, down 88.29% from ¥149,651,136.62 in the previous year[50]. - Cash flow from operating activities for the current period is approximately ¥1,171.83 million, compared to ¥1,079.93 million in the previous period, marking an increase of about 8.5%[59]. - The cash flow from customer deposits and interbank placements showed no significant increase during the reporting period[59]. Profitability - Total operating revenue for the current period reached ¥1,352,909,154.08, an increase of 4.84% compared to ¥1,290,475,906.50 in the same period last year[50]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was ¥250,232,447.93, a decrease of 2.09% from ¥255,586,126.25 in the previous year[50]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥234,976,735.16, an increase of 6.93% from ¥219,758,210.21 in the same period last year[50]. - The company's total comprehensive income for the current period is approximately ¥257.53 million, slightly lower than ¥259.88 million from the previous period[59]. - The net profit for the current period is approximately ¥257.53 million, a slight decrease from ¥259.88 million in the previous period, representing a decline of about 0.9%[59]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is approximately ¥250.23 million, down from ¥255.59 million, indicating a decrease of around 2.1%[59]. - The weighted average return on net assets was 5.60%, down from 6.29% in the previous year[50]. - The diluted earnings per share for the current period is ¥0.17, unchanged from the previous period[59]. Expenses - Financial expenses increased by 534.41% to -¥10,593,351.82 from -¥1,669,788.69 year-on-year due to increased interest income from bank deposits[36]. - Other income decreased by 59.55% to ¥19,301,042.91 from ¥47,713,527.64 year-on-year due to reduced government subsidies[36]. - Research and development expenses for the current period were ¥21,578,618.85, slightly down from ¥22,000,890.90 in the previous year[50]. Assurance and Reporting - The board of directors assures that the financial report is true, accurate, and complete, with no significant omissions or misleading statements[2]. - The company has not reported any non-recurring gains or losses during the period[19].

买入（维持） 报喜鸟（002154） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 4,313 | 5,254 | 5,972 | 6,773 | 7,681 | | 同比（ % ） | (3.11) | 21.82 | 13.67 | 13.42 | 13.41 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 458.77 | 697.85 | 805.88 | 929.43 | 1,069.26 | | 同比（ % ） | (1.20) | 52.11 | 15.48 | 15.33 | 15.04 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.31 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 0.73 | | P/E （现价 & 最新摊薄） | 17.65 | 11.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, with a target price of CNY 7.98, maintaining the same rating as the previous report [15]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in net profit in Q1 2024, primarily due to delays in government subsidies, but it is expected to achieve stable growth throughout the year as it expands its multi-brand strategy [15]. - The company's gross profit margin reached a recent high of 67.8%, indicating strong performance in winter product sales [15]. - Despite a slowdown in revenue growth in Q1 2024, the company is anticipated to accelerate store openings in the second half of the year, contributing to overall growth [15]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at CNY 5,254 million, with a growth rate of 22% compared to 2022 [15]. - The company's EBIT is expected to increase to CNY 1,002 million in 2024, reflecting a 12% growth [15]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach CNY 698 million in 2024, a 14% increase from 2023 [15]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in profitability metrics, with a net profit margin of 13.3% expected in 2024 [15]. Operational Metrics - The company maintains a healthy inventory level, with a balance of CNY 1,070 million as of Q1 2024, down 7% from the beginning of the year [15]. - The report notes an increase in operational efficiency, with inventory turnover days improving from 267.8 days to 226.6 days [15]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise to 16.9% in 2024, indicating enhanced profitability [15].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------|-------------------|----------------------------------|---------------------------------------| | | [Table_Title] 报喜鸟（ | 002154.SZ | ） | | | [ 公司评级 Table_Invest] | 证券研究报告 \n买入 | | | | ...

证券研究报告：纺织服饰 | 公司点评报告 总股本/流通股本（亿股）14.59 / 11.77 公司基本情况 总市值/流通市值（亿元）81 / 65 资产负债率(%) 36.6% 第一大股东 吴志泽 股票投资评级 个股表现 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 分析师:李媛媛 SAC 登记编号:S1340523020001 Email:liyuanyuan@cnpsec.com 24Q1 收入稳健增长，政府补助下降影响业绩增长 ⚫ 事件点评 ⚫ 受消费景气度及基数压力 24Q1 收入平稳增长。公司 24Q1 收入实 现平稳增长，我们认为主要在于：1）24Q1 国内服装限额社零同比增 速为 2.5%，服装消费较为平稳；2）公司 23Q1 基数较高，带来一定的 增长压力。展望未来，公司报喜鸟、哈吉斯等品牌实现门店稳健扩张， 截至 23 年年末门店分别较上年同期净增 40 个/13 个，稳健门店扩张 +大店策略有望驱动收入增长。 毛利率稳定提升，净利率高位微降。公司 24Q1 毛利率为 67.8%， 同比上升 1.7pct;公司 24Q1 销售费用率、管理费用率、研发费用率分 别为 36.2%/6.2%/1.6%，同比变动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [15]. Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in net profit attributable to the parent company, with expectations for continued channel expansion [14]. - The company is a leading domestic mid-to-high-end menswear group, with a projected net profit growth of approximately 15% for 2024 [14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue (Million CNY)**: - 2022A: 4,313 - 2023A: 5,254 - 2024E: 5,913 - 2025E: 6,638 - 2026E: 7,328 - YoY Growth Rate: 2023A +21.8%, 2024E +12.6% [2][6] - **Net Profit (Million CNY)**: - 2022A: 459 - 2023A: 698 - 2024E: 806 - 2025E: 921 - 2026E: 1,043 - YoY Growth Rate: 2023A +52.1%, 2024E +15.5% [2][6] - **EPS (CNY/Share)**: - 2022A: 0.31 - 2023A: 0.48 - 2024E: 0.55 - 2025E: 0.63 - 2026E: 0.71 [2][6] - **ROE (%)**: - 2022A: 11.8 - 2023A: 16.3 - 2024E: 17.0 - 2025E: 17.0 - 2026E: 17.0 [2][6] - **P/E Ratio**: - 2022A: 17.7 - 2023A: 11.6 - 2024E: 10.1 - 2025E: 8.8 - 2026E: 7.8 [2][6] - **P/B Ratio**: - 2022A: 2.1 - 2023A: 1.9 - 2024E: 1.7 - 2025E: 1.5 - 2026E: 1.3 [2][6] Operational Insights - The company’s main brand and HAZZYS showed stable revenue performance, while the Bao Niao brand experienced rapid growth [14]. - The company plans to continue expanding its store network, with an estimated 10% to 20% increase in new stores for 2024 [14]. - The company’s inventory turnover remains healthy, with inventory decreasing by 0.6% YoY to 1.07 billion CNY [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [17][31]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth potential with multi-brand expansion and has achieved profitability turnaround [2][19]. - The main brands are expected to see revenue growth, with specific projections for each brand, indicating a positive trend in sales [4][25]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 show an increase in net profit and earnings per share (EPS), reflecting a strong outlook for the company's performance [5][19]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 5,254 million in 2023 to 5,948 million in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.2% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 698 million in 2023 to 796 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 14.0% [5]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve slightly from 64.7% in 2023 to 65.0% in 2024, indicating better cost management [5]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 11.6 in 2023 to 10.2 in 2024, suggesting a potentially undervalued stock [5][19]. Brand Performance - The main brand "Baoxini" is expected to see a revenue increase of 0-5%, while "Baoniao" is projected to grow by 15-20% [4]. - "Hajisi" is anticipated to perform better in franchise sales compared to direct sales, with a similar decline in e-commerce [4]. - "Lefeiye" is expected to maintain a high growth rate of 20-30% in early 2024, indicating strong market demand [4][25]. Operational Efficiency - The company reported a stable non-recurring net profit margin of 17.4% in Q1 2024, with a slight increase in expense ratios [20][26]. - Inventory turnover days increased to 241 days, reflecting a need for improved inventory management [26]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2024 was reported at 0.18 billion, a significant decrease of 88%, primarily due to increased procurement costs and other operational expenses [26].

报喜鸟（002154.SZ） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------|----------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 4,313 | 5,254 | 6,110 | 6,920 | 7,509 | | | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | -3.1 | 21.8 | 16.3 | 13.3 | 8.5 | 股票信息 | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 459 | 698 | 816 | 951 | 1,061 | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | 增长率 yoy （ % ） | -1.2 | 52.1 ...