Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][18]. Core Insights - The company experienced a revenue decline of 1.9% in 2024, with a significant drop in net profit by 29.1% due to increased market investment and brand promotion costs [1][2]. - The multi-brand strategy has been successfully implemented, enhancing the company's core competitiveness and risk resistance [9]. - The company has established a balanced development of its brand matrix, with three brands exceeding 1 billion in revenue [4]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: - 2023 revenue was 5,254 million, projected to decrease to 5,153 million in 2024, then increase to 5,505 million in 2025 [1]. - Net profit for 2023 was 698 million, expected to drop to 495 million in 2024, with a recovery to 544 million in 2025 [1]. - **Profitability Ratios**: - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 65.02%, a slight increase from the previous year [2]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 10.09%, down 3.78 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The latest diluted EPS for 2024 is projected at 0.34, down from 0.48 in 2023, with a gradual increase expected in subsequent years [1][9]. Brand Performance Summary - **Brand Revenue**: - The Hazzys brand achieved a revenue of 1.781 billion, a growth of 1.29%, while the Lefuye brand saw a significant increase of 27.95% to 335 million [3]. - The Baonia brand's revenue was 1.009 billion, down 2.89%, and the Baoxin brand revenue decreased by 8.35% to 1.585 billion [3]. - **Channel Development**: - The company has established 1,815 offline stores across various key locations and is actively expanding its online presence through major e-commerce platforms [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a well-balanced brand matrix with mature, growth, and nurturing brands, allowing for resource sharing and collaborative development [4]. - The acquisition of the international outdoor brand Woolrich marks a significant step towards enhancing the company's multi-brand strategy and international expansion [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 5.45 CNY based on a 16x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3][9] Core Views - The company's short-term profitability is under pressure, but there are expectations for multi-brand development in the future [1] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast, projecting earnings per share of 0.34, 0.40, and 0.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][9] - The report highlights a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a revenue of 5.15 billion CNY, down 1.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 495 million CNY, down 29.1% year-on-year [8] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 5,254 million CNY - 2024A: 5,153 million CNY (down 1.9%) - 2025E: 5,373 million CNY (up 4.3%) - 2026E: 5,833 million CNY (up 8.6%) - 2027E: 6,340 million CNY (up 8.7%) [2][8][13] - **Net Profit**: - 2023A: 698 million CNY - 2024A: 495 million CNY (down 29.1%) - 2025E: 497 million CNY (up 0.4%) - 2026E: 577 million CNY (up 16.1%) - 2027E: 672 million CNY (up 16.5%) [2][8][13] - **Earnings Per Share**: - 2023A: 0.48 CNY - 2024A: 0.34 CNY - 2025E: 0.34 CNY - 2026E: 0.40 CNY - 2027E: 0.46 CNY [2][8][13] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: 64.7% in 2023A, expected to be 65.0% in 2024A - Net Margin: 13.3% in 2023A, expected to be 9.6% in 2024A - Return on Equity: 16.9% in 2023A, expected to be 11.4% in 2024A [2][8][13] Brand Performance - The report indicates that the Baohiniao brand is under pressure, while the Haji Si brand shows resilience, and the Le Fei Ye brand is experiencing high growth [8] - Revenue growth for 2024 by brand: - Baohiniao: -8.4% - Haji Si: +1.3% - Le Fei Ye: +28% - Bao Niao: -2.9% [8] Strategic Developments - The company announced the acquisition of Woolrich brand's global intellectual property for 384 million CNY, which is expected to enhance its presence in the American retro outdoor market [8] - The establishment of a new R&D center and headquarters in Shanghai with an investment of approximately 300-400 million CNY is also planned [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, prompting a shift towards the outdoor market as a strategic response to ongoing performance pressures [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.153 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.91%, and a net profit of 495 million yuan, down 29.07% [3][4]. - Marketing expenses increased to 2.13 billion yuan in 2024, up 4.88% from the previous year, contributing to the decline in profitability [3][4]. - The company had previously seen revenue and net profit growth of 21.82% and 52.11% respectively in 2023, indicating a significant reversal in performance [4]. Marketing Strategy - The rise in marketing expenses is attributed to increased efforts in market expansion and brand promotion, which have not yielded the expected results [3][5]. - The company has engaged various celebrities for marketing campaigns, but the effectiveness of these strategies has diminished over time [3][4]. Outdoor Market Expansion - The company is intensifying its focus on the outdoor market, highlighted by the acquisition of the American high-end outdoor brand Woolrich for 384 million yuan [7][9]. - The outdoor brand Lefeiye, which the company has been representing since 2016, saw revenue growth of 27.95% in 2024, indicating a positive trend in this segment [6][8]. - The overall outdoor equipment market in China is projected to grow from 87.2 billion yuan in 2023 to over 100 billion yuan by 2028, suggesting a lucrative opportunity for the company [8][10]. Competitive Landscape - The outdoor market is becoming increasingly competitive, with established players like Anta and Nike already present, making it challenging for the company to gain market share [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that the company's lack of expertise in the outdoor sector may hinder its ability to compete effectively against more specialized brands [10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in net profit by 29% to 495 million yuan while investing 384 million yuan in acquiring the global intellectual property of the high-end outdoor brand Woolrich, indicating a commitment to a multi-brand strategy and international expansion despite facing financial challenges and inventory pressures [2][3][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's operating revenue was 5.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.91% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 29.07% [3][4]. - The fourth quarter saw a slight increase in revenue to 1.62 billion yuan, but net profit dropped significantly by 44% to 79.63 million yuan [3]. - The company's main business costs were controlled at 1.68 billion yuan, down 3.53% year-on-year, but total expenses rose to 2.57 billion yuan, an increase of 4.45% [3]. Sales and Marketing Expenses - Sales expenses reached 2.13 billion yuan, accounting for 41% of revenue, indicating a substantial investment in advertising and channel development to maintain brand image and visibility [3][7]. - Research and development expenses decreased by 14.59% to 92.73 million yuan, reflecting a shift in focus towards marketing and sales efforts [3]. Acquisition of Woolrich - The acquisition of Woolrich for 384 million yuan includes global intellectual property rights and aims to enhance the company's multi-brand portfolio and international presence [6][9]. - The deal represents 8.84% of the company's latest audited net assets and includes rights to operate in 26 countries and regions outside of Europe [6][9]. Inventory and Cash Flow Concerns - The company faced cash flow challenges, with net cash flow from operating activities dropping by 39.13% to 700 million yuan due to reduced sales returns [7]. - Inventory levels remained high, with values of 1.18 billion yuan, 1.15 billion yuan, and 1.20 billion yuan over the past three years, leading to an extended inventory turnover period of 238 days in 2024 [7][10]. Market Context - The domestic apparel market is highly competitive, particularly for traditional menswear brands, prompting many companies to enter the high-end outdoor segment [9][10]. - The acquisition aligns with industry trends where companies are increasingly partnering with international outdoor brands to drive growth amid slowing performance [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company [1][10] Core Views - In 2024, the company's revenue and profit are expected to decline by 1.91% and 29.07% year-on-year, respectively, due to increased expenses and losses from shop sales [2][10] - The company is focusing on controlling discounts and improving gross margins across channels, with an expected net profit of 5.17 billion, 5.86 billion, and 6.55 billion for 2025-2027 [10][12] Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 51.53 billion, slightly down from the previous year, with a net profit of 4.95 billion [2][9] - The fourth quarter of 2024 shows a revenue increase of 1.97% year-on-year, but a significant decline in net profit by 44.17% [2] Brand Performance - Revenue breakdown by brand shows a decline for Baoxiniang and Kaimiqie, while Le Fei Ye has a significant growth of 27.95% [3][4] - The number of stores for Baoxiniang increased by 4 to 821, while Haji Si saw an increase of 21 stores to 478 [3] Channel Performance - Online revenue for 2024 is expected to grow by 1.65%, while offline revenue is declining despite an increase in store numbers [4][10] - The company has seen a decrease in revenue from both direct and franchise stores, with a total of 1,815 stores by the end of 2024 [8] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 52.54 billion, with a projected increase to 54.52 billion in 2025 [9][12] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 11X for 2025 and 9.5X for 2026 [10][12] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to improve to 65.02%, with a net profit margin of 10.09% [10][13] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.3% for 2025, indicating stable profitability [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.6 billion in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 80 million, down 44% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2024, the company expects a revenue of 5.2 billion, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 500 million, down 29% year-on-year [1] - The company is facing challenges due to weak domestic textile and apparel retail consumption and intensified industry competition, leading to a slight decline in revenue despite efforts to enhance management and control discounts [1][4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.5 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders, with a dividend payout ratio of 15% [1] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the direct sales channel generated 2 billion in revenue, down 4% year-on-year, with a net increase of 58 stores; the franchise channel generated 800 million, slightly down, with a net decrease of 4 stores; online sales generated 800 million, up 2%; and group purchases generated 1.1 billion, down 1% [2] - The brand "Baoxini" generated 1.6 billion in revenue, down 8% year-on-year, with a net increase of 4 stores; "Haggis" generated 1.8 billion, up 1%, with a net increase of 21 stores; and "Baoniao" generated 1 billion, down 3% [2][3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 65% in 2024, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with online gross margin at 72%, direct sales at 78%, franchise at 69%, and group purchases at 46% [4] - Total expenses for the period amounted to 2.6 billion, up 4% year-on-year, with sales expenses at 2.1 billion, up 5% due to increased market expansion and brand promotion efforts [4] - The inventory turnover days increased to 235 days, up 9 days year-on-year [5] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 540 million, 680 million, and 810 million respectively, with EPS projected at 0.4 yuan, 0.5 yuan, and 0.6 yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7][8] Core Views - The company has fully provisioned to solidify its financial statements, preparing for a potential turnaround in 2025 [1][7] - The company reported a revenue of 5.15 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 495 million yuan, down 29.1% year-on-year [7][8] - The company is focusing on controlling terminal discounts, resulting in a stable gross margin of 65% in 2024, despite high sales expenses leading to profit leverage [7][10] - The company has a strong cash position with over 2 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, indicating solid asset quality [7][10] - The acquisition of the Woolrich brand is expected to enhance the company's position in the outdoor segment, with a projected net profit of 5.3 billion yuan in 2025 [7][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 5.515 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [6][18] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 526 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.3% year-on-year [6][18] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable around 64.6% in 2025 [6][18] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.1% in 2025 [6][18] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is estimated at 11 for 2025, with a target market value of 7.1 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 28% from the current market value [7][15]

Operating Overview - The company reported a total revenue of 5.153 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.91% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 495 million yuan, down 29.07% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 436 million yuan, a decrease of 27.88% [2] - In Q4, total revenue was 1.617 billion yuan, an increase of 1.97% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was only 79.69 million yuan, down 44.17% year-on-year [2] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin was 65.02%, an increase of 0.48% year-on-year, indicating improved cost control [3] - However, the net profit margin was 10.09%, a decrease of 27.25% year-on-year, reflecting a significant decline in profitability due to total sales, management, and financial expenses reaching 2.477 billion yuan, accounting for 48.07% of revenue, an increase of 7.38% [3] Cash Flow and Asset Status - The operating cash flow per share was 0.48 yuan, a decrease of 39.13% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced collection of sales receivables and increased payments for procurement and employee salaries [4] - Accounts receivable stood at 693 million yuan, representing 139.98% of the latest annual net profit, indicating a significant risk in receivables collection [4] Balance Sheet Analysis - Cash and cash equivalents amounted to 2.025 billion yuan, an increase of 7.09% year-on-year, while interest-bearing debt decreased by 38.01% to 449 million yuan, indicating improved debt management [5] - Fixed assets increased by 76.26%, mainly due to the completion of an industrial park, while construction in progress decreased by 82.74% for the same reason [5] Main Business Analysis - The primary revenue source remains the textile and apparel industry, accounting for 97.39% of total revenue, with high gross margins for products such as jackets, pants, shirts, and T-shirts at 58.94%, 63.64%, 68.12%, and 76.62% respectively [6] - However, the export business reported a loss, with export revenue of 25.93 million yuan and a loss of 110 million yuan, resulting in a profit margin of -422.46% [6] Development Strategy and Future Outlook - The company will continue to focus on apparel as its main business and investment as a secondary business, aiming for multi-brand and omnichannel development to enhance product, channel, brand, and operational capabilities [7] - Despite facing macroeconomic fluctuations and intensified market competition, the company plans to optimize performance mechanisms and strengthen risk management to ensure high-quality, stable, and sustainable development [7] Summary - Overall, the company's financial performance in 2024 was unsatisfactory, with slight revenue decline, significant net profit reduction, high accounts receivable, and increased cash flow pressure [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue at 5.153 billion and net profit at 495 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.91% and 29.07% respectively [2] - The decline in performance was attributed to negative operating leverage, rigid expenses, and a reduction in investment income [2] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 0.5 yuan per 10 shares and 0.7 yuan mid-term, with a payout ratio of 35% [3] - The company is investing 300-400 million yuan in a new R&D center and acquiring the global intellectual property rights for the Woolrich brand for 380 million yuan [3] Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 was 5.153 billion, with a projected increase to 5.602 billion in 2025 and 6.205 billion in 2026 [11] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 495 million, with projections of 534 million in 2025 and 700 million in 2026 [11] - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 65.0%, with a slight increase expected in subsequent years [11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.34 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.37 yuan in 2025 and 0.48 yuan in 2026 [11] Brand Performance - The company’s main brands, including Baoniao and Hazzys, showed mixed results, with Baoniao experiencing a decline due to reduced group purchasing budgets [4] - The number of stores for Baoniao increased by 4 to 821, while Hazzys opened 21 new stores, bringing the total to 478 [4] - Online and direct sales channels showed slight growth, with online revenue at 8.17 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.42% [4] Profitability Analysis - The company’s gross margin increased slightly to 65.0%, while the net profit margin decreased to 9.6% due to rising sales expenses and asset impairment losses [5][6] - The sales expense increased by 100 million, primarily due to higher advertising costs [6] - The company’s net profit for Q4 2024 was reported at 80 million, with a net profit margin of 4.9% [6] Inventory and Receivables - The company’s inventory at the end of 2024 was 1.205 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.66% [7] - Accounts receivable also increased to 693 million, with a turnover period of 47 days [7] Investment Outlook - Short-term outlook remains cautious due to high base effects and low confidence among franchisees, but there is cautious optimism for the year ahead [8] - The company expects to see improvements in its main brand and other segments in the coming years, with projected revenue growth of 8.7% in 2025 and 10.8% in 2026 [9]

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 19 年 月 日 HAZZYS、要品牌开店符合预期，2025 年预计趋势持续。分品牌：2024 年 HAZZYS/报喜 鸟要品牌/宝鸟/恺米切&乐飞叶&TB 品牌销售收入分别为 17.8/15.9/10.1/5.0 亿元，同比分 别+1%/-8%/-3%/+13%。 1）HAZZYS：2024 年收入+1%至 17.8 亿元（其中 H1/H2 分别同比持平/+2%），占比 35%。 ①产品，聚焦通勤、休闲、运动三大场景，升级面料创新产品，通过大单品策略提升配饰品 类的运情效率。②渠道数量稳步扩张，2024 年净加主 21 家至 478 家（其中直情+17 家至 344 家/主盟+4 家至 134 家），们根断销 2025 年有望保持快速新开店加幅 10%~15%、同 时关闭低效门店，目前品牌仍以直情为要、布局高线城市。 2）报喜鸟要品牌：2024 年收入-8%至 15.9 亿元（其中 H1/H2 分别同比-4%/-12%），占比 32%。①产品强调面料功能性与舒适性，重视研发创新，运动西服等产品受到好评。②渠道 结构优化，2024 年净 ...