百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 2026年开年，百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 1月31日，中指研究院发布数据显示，2026年1月，TOP100房企销售总额为1905.2亿元，同比下降18.9%；同期，TOP100房企权益销售额为1321.4亿元。 房企销售金额前十依次为：保利发展、中海地产、华润置地、绿城中国、中旅投资、招商蛇口、中国金茂、建发房产、万科、滨江集团，其中仅保利、中 海、华润单月销售过百亿。 对比上年同期，房企销售位次已经发生了较大变化。头部房企中，保利、中海、华润、绿城的顺序未变，但万科从上年1月的第5位，下滑至今年1月的第9 位。中旅投资短期内成为"黑马"，闯到今年1月房企全口径销售榜第5位。 TOP10随后的房企中，招商蛇口、建发房产、滨江集团变化不大、依然位列其中，但是华发股份从去年1月的第6位降至今年1月的第18位，同期中国铁建 从第10位降至第13位，中国金茂则从去年1月的第13位升至今年1月的第7位。 克而瑞数据显示，1月全国重点50城市新建商品住宅成交面积约810万平方米，表现较为清淡，新房市场整体进入淡季；同期，重点13城市二手房成交面积 约810万平方米，环比上升16% ...

房地产 2026 年 01 月 31 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com ⚫ 2026 年 1 月 29 日，证监会正式受理首批三只商业不动产 REITs，分别是汇添富上海地 产、中金唯品会以及华安锦江 REIT。 点评： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 首批 3 只商业不动产 REITs 申报，覆盖底层资产为办公楼、酒店和奥特莱斯。1 月 29 日，上交所公示首批 3 只商业不动产 REITs 申报受理：1）汇添富上海地产 REIT，底层 资产为上海黄浦区鼎保大厦、鼎博大厦两个办公楼；预计募集规模 40.02 亿元、2026-27 年净现金流分派 ...

Core Viewpoint - The majority of A-share listed real estate companies are expected to report significant losses for the year 2025, indicating a challenging market environment for the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Loss Predictions - Out of 52 listed real estate companies, 40 are expected to report losses for 2025, which means over 80% of these companies are projected to be in the red [1]. - Five companies are expected to report losses exceeding 10 billion yuan, with Vanke leading at a projected loss of 820 billion yuan, followed by China Fortune Land Development, Greenland Holdings, Overseas Chinese Town, and Gemdale [2][3]. - Vanke's cumulative losses for 2024 and 2025 are projected to be nearly 1,315 billion yuan, surpassing the total profits from 2019 to 2023 [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Losses - The losses are attributed to declining property prices and significant impairment provisions that companies have had to make over the past two years [9][10]. - Many companies had previously anticipated a market recovery and began to recognize inventory impairments, but the continued market downturn has forced them to increase these provisions [10]. Group 3: Companies Reporting Profits - Twelve companies are expected to report profits, with Jinke Real Estate projected to achieve a net profit of 300 billion to 350 billion yuan, primarily due to successful restructuring [12][13]. - Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou are also expected to report profits, albeit with significant declines compared to 2024, primarily due to impairment provisions [16][17]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The list of loss-making companies includes a mix of private, state-owned, and central enterprises, indicating that the nature of the company does not correlate with the likelihood of losses [7]. - State-owned platform companies, which previously supported land acquisitions, are now facing increased pressure due to the ongoing market decline [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The upcoming annual report season in March and April 2025 will provide more detailed insights into the operational conditions of these companies [25].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector has experienced a significant surge in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][5][9]. Group 1: Real Estate Sector Performance - A-shares real estate ETF rose nearly 3%, while Hong Kong's property stocks surged over 6%, with notable increases in companies like Sunac China and Hongyang Real Estate, both rising over 20% [1][5]. - Specific stock performances included China Aoyuan up 27.4%, Sunac China up 23.3%, and Hongyang Real Estate up 22.58% [5][6]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector suggests a clean clearing of chips, with low valuations attracting investor interest [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Signals - The rise in real estate stocks coincides with a notable increase in the liquor sector, indicating structural volatility in the market as these sectors are seen as lagging behind in previous downturns [1][9]. - The recent surge in commodities, including gold and copper, reflects heightened inflation expectations, which could impact sectors like AI negatively [2][9]. - The performance of 30-year treasury futures has been unexpectedly strong, suggesting a complex market narrative that does not align with traditional economic theories regarding inflation and bond prices [3][9]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - Reports indicate that several real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" metrics monthly, suggesting a more lenient regulatory environment [7]. - Analysts believe that recent policy adjustments, such as the reduction of the value-added tax on second-hand homes and the lowering of commercial property loan down payments, may support a stabilization in the real estate market [7].

Market Overview - As of January 29, A-share major indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.1% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.01% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 20,349 billion yuan, an increase of 1,042 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] - Over 2,400 stocks in the market experienced gains [2] Gold Market - International gold prices reached new highs, with spot gold surpassing $5,500 per ounce, peaking at $5,598.75 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 28% [10][11] - Gold stocks surged, with China Gold achieving five consecutive trading limits [9][12] - Despite the surge, China Gold warned investors about potential risks, stating that its main business remains unchanged and projecting a net profit decrease of 55% to 65% for 2025 [12] AI Application Sector - AI application stocks saw a significant rally, with Keda Xunfei (科大讯飞) hitting the daily limit up after a positive earnings forecast [5][6] - Keda Xunfei expects a net profit of 785 million to 950 million yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 40% to 70% year-on-year [8] - The company reported over a 20% increase in R&D investment, emphasizing its commitment to core technology autonomy [8] - Analysts from CITIC Securities expressed optimism about the AI application and computing power sectors, anticipating a surge in AI-native applications and the need for increased computing power [8] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector experienced a rebound, with stocks like I Love My Home and Shenzhen Deep Housing hitting daily limits [14] - Shenzhen Deep Housing projected a net profit of 80.8 million to 121 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss of 177 million yuan the previous year [14] - Hong Kong-listed property stocks also saw significant gains, with notable increases in companies like Contemporary Land and China Aoyuan [14][16] - The restructuring of debts among leading real estate companies is progressing, with Vanke successfully extending three domestic bonds and other companies like Country Garden and Sunac China entering execution phases for debt restructuring [17] - Experts suggest that a new financing model for real estate is emerging, focusing on cash flow safety and operational efficiency [18]

Core Viewpoint - The housing rental concept is experiencing a significant rebound, with notable stock price increases for several companies in the sector, including I Love My Home, which reached its daily limit, along with others like Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, Jindi Group, Vanke A, 365 Network, and Weiye Shares [1] Group 1 - The stock price of I Love My Home has hit the daily limit, indicating strong market interest and confidence in the company [1] - Other companies in the housing rental sector, such as Binjiang Group, China Merchants Shekou, Jindi Group, Vanke A, 365 Network, and Weiye Shares, have also seen their stock prices rise in response to the market trend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate sector experienced a volatile rebound on January 29, with several companies, including Dayue City and Sanxiang Impression, hitting the daily limit for stock price increases. Other companies such as New Town Holdings, Binjiang Group, Jingtou Development, and Huaxia Happiness also saw significant gains. [1] Group 1 - The regulatory requirement for companies to report the "three red lines" indicators on a monthly basis has been lifted for many firms, indicating a potential easing of regulatory pressure in the real estate sector. [1] - Some distressed real estate companies are still required to regularly report their asset-liability ratios and other financial indicators to specialized teams in their respective headquarters cities. [1]

Group 1 - The real estate sector is experiencing a volatile rebound, with major companies like Dayue City and Sanxiang Impression hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as New Town Holdings, Binjiang Group, Jingtou Development, and Huaxia Happiness are also seeing significant gains [1]

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：您好，公司通过普华天晴股权投资目前持有北京软体 机器人科技股份有限公司多少股份？ 滨江集团（002244.SZ）1月27日在投资者互动平台表示，您好，公司联营企业杭州滨江普华天晴股权投 资合伙企业（有限合伙）持有北京软体机器人科技股份有限公司2.9367%的股份。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]