Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing significant year-on-year growth due to a low base from the previous year, particularly during the Spring Festival period, but there is a month-on-month decline in transactions [1][6] - The Shanghai pilot program for purchasing second-hand homes for rental housing is expected to positively influence market expectations and confidence if implemented effectively [2][6] - The new housing transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month, with a narrowing year-on-year growth rate [6][17] - The inventory of new homes is decreasing both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [6][46] Summary by Sections New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new housing transaction volume in 40 cities was 17,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 225.1% [18][19] - The new housing transaction area was 163.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 9.6% and a year-on-year increase of 203.0% [18][27] - The transaction volume and area for first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed varying month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates [20][21][22] Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities was 174.1 million square meters, with a month-on-month decline of 4.7% and a year-on-year increase of 349.7% [6][19] - The month-on-month decline in transaction volume for second-hand homes is more pronounced in first-tier cities compared to second and third/fourth-tier cities [6][19] Inventory and De-stocking Cycle - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 11,235 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [46][47] - The de-stocking cycle for new homes is 17.4 months, showing a month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase [46][47] Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 1,188.4 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 74.1% and a year-on-year increase of 582.1% [6][14] - The average land price per square meter decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a cooling in land prices [6][14] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, those that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [7][6]

证券代码：002244 证券简称：滨江集团 公告编号：2026-002 特此公告。 杭州滨江房产集团股份有限公司 董事会 二○二六年二月十一日 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 2026 年 2 月 10 日，公司竞得浙江省湖州市下述地块的国有建设 用地使用权： | 序号 | | 地块编号 | | 规划用途 | 建设用地面 | 容积率 | 土地总价 | 土地权益 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 积(㎡) | | (万元) | | | 1 | 湖新区 | 2026-01 | 号 | 住宅 | 51524 | 1.8 | 50300 | 100% | 公司在上述项目中所占权益比例可能发生变化，上述比例仅供投 资者作阶段性参考。 杭州滨江房产集团股份有限公司 关于竞得土地使用权的公告 ...

Group 1 - The company announced that it has successfully acquired the land use rights for a state-owned construction site in Huzhou, Zhejiang Province, with a total land area of 51,524 square meters and a planned usage for residential development [1] - The total price for the land is 503 million yuan, and the company holds 100% of the land rights, although the proportion of rights may change in the future [1] - The plot has a floor area ratio of 1.8, indicating the potential for significant residential development on the site [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [4]. Core Insights - The "old-for-new" policy is being reintroduced in Shanghai, which is expected to effectively stabilize housing prices and stimulate market activity [10][26]. - The policy focuses on acquiring second-hand homes to address inventory issues and enhance market liquidity, with specific criteria for eligible properties [10][26]. - The anticipated financial impact includes a potential market transaction increase of approximately 1,080 billion yuan, representing a 9% boost to total market transactions and a 24% increase in new home sales [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Background of the "Old-for-New" Policy - The central government has emphasized the need for policies that control inventory and improve supply, with the "old-for-new" initiative aligning closely with these goals [10][11]. 2. Historical Experience of "Old-for-New" - The "old-for-new" model is categorized into acquisition and assistance types, with the acquisition model being more effective in driving sales [16][21]. - The acquisition model has been implemented in over 20 cities, with a total of 14,520 units identified for trial [16][21]. 3. Shanghai's "Old-for-New" Policy - The policy aims to stabilize housing prices by focusing on second-hand homes, with specific requirements for properties built before 2000 and under 400 million yuan [3][10]. - The estimated funding requirement for the acquisition of 27,000 units is approximately 54 billion yuan, leveraging a 1:2 replacement ratio to maximize market impact [3][10]. 4. Feasibility of the Latest "Old-for-New" Policy - Shanghai is positioned as a key city for the implementation of this policy due to its strong government credibility and market stability [3][10]. - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai has shown signs of stabilization, with a reduction in the average transaction cycle to 22.2 months and a 2% month-on-month price rebound [3][10]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current environment, characterized by improving transaction volumes and prices in the second-hand market, presents significant investment opportunities [3][10].

Market Performance - The real estate sector (CITIC) had a weekly performance of 0.0%, while the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices decreased by -1.3% and -1.5% respectively, resulting in excess returns of 1.3% and 1.4%[5] - Among 29 CITIC industry sectors, real estate ranked 15th in performance[5] New Housing Market - In the week from January 31 to February 6, 2026, the new housing transaction area in 36 cities was 1.392 million square meters, down 2.9% week-on-week but up 175.7% year-on-year[10] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 reached 1.204 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 257.9%[10] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 6.798 million square meters, down 16.2% year-on-year[10] Second-Hand Housing Market - For the same week, the transaction area for second-hand housing in 15 cities was 1.644 million square meters, down 3.6% week-on-week but up 245.8% year-on-year[16] - Cumulative transactions from February 1 to February 6 were 1.535 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 423.1%[16] - Year-to-date transactions as of February 6 totaled 8.383 million square meters, up 37.1% year-on-year[16] Inventory and Depletion Cycle - Cumulative new housing inventory in 13 cities was 77.165 million square meters, down 0.7% week-on-week and down 4.6% year-on-year[24] - The new housing depletion cycle for these cities is 22.9 months, with a week-on-week change of -0.1 months and a year-on-year change of +6.2 months[24] Land Market - The land transaction area from February 2 to February 8 was 1.1863 million square meters, down 44.9% week-on-week and down 36.0% year-on-year[43] - The average land price was 1,552 RMB per square meter, up 42.8% week-on-week and up 71.5% year-on-year[43] - Year-to-date land transactions as of February 8 totaled 10.556 million square meters, down 15.8% year-on-year[43] Investment Recommendations - Recommended mainland developers include A-shares: Binhai Group, China Merchants Shekou; Hong Kong stocks: China Overseas Development, Greentown China, China Resources Land, Jianfa International Group[9] - For light asset operation companies, recommended property management companies include Greentown Service and commercial management companies like China Resources Vientiane Life[9] Risk Factors - Risks include potential delays in the relaxation of real estate control policies, continued industry downturns, and ongoing credit risks leading to liquidity deterioration[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector, specifically highlighting the promotion of "good housing" construction in Fujian [2]. Core Insights - The report indicates a seasonal decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 20 cities decreasing by 9% week-on-week but increasing by 147% year-on-year. The total transaction area for new housing was 170 million square meters [22][21]. - The second-hand housing market showed a similar trend, with a 7% week-on-week decrease but a 174% year-on-year increase in transaction area, totaling 199 million square meters [27][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing three key issues in the real estate market: declining new housing demand, unresolved inventory, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [6]. Industry Data - The real estate sector consists of 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,270.7 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 1,217.1 billion yuan [2]. - The sector's performance in the past month shows an absolute increase of 2.3%, a 6-month increase of 7.4%, and a 12-month increase of 12.8% [3]. Policy Developments - Fujian province has introduced measures to stabilize the real estate market, focusing on promoting housing consumption and inventory reduction, including optimizing shared ownership policies and encouraging the purchase of existing homes [15][18]. - Gansu province has adjusted its housing provident fund loan policies, increasing the maximum loan amounts for single and married contributors [15][18]. Sales Performance - In the first week of February, the average daily transaction area for new housing in 20 cities was 24.3 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area of 838 million square meters year-to-date, reflecting a 28% year-on-year decrease [22][21]. - The report notes that the average transaction area for second-hand housing in 11 cities was 28.5 million square meters, with a cumulative area of 1,067 million square meters year-to-date, indicating a 23% year-on-year increase [27][24]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate sector: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable income assets such as leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share real estate market has shown strong performance, with several key stocks experiencing significant gains following government discussions on policies to stabilize and boost the real estate market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Shahe Co. reached a daily limit increase of 10%, while Zhu Mian Group rose over 6% and New Town Holdings increased by over 5% [1] - Other notable gainers include Yingxin Development, Jindi Group, and Jingtou Development, all rising over 4%, while Shen Zhen Ye A, China Merchants Shekou, and Vanke A saw increases of over 3% [1] Group 2: Policy Developments - The Jiangsu provincial government held a meeting with real estate professionals to discuss measures aimed at stabilizing and boosting the real estate market [1] - A closed-door seminar ahead of the National People's Congress suggested issuing additional government bonds, lowering interest rates, and stabilizing the housing market [1] - Fujian province released implementation opinions to promote high-quality urban development, focusing on the renovation of urban villages and old housing [1] - Shenzhen conducted a site meeting on urban renewal, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches to promote organic urban renewal and accelerate the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance in the real estate sector, with several companies seeing significant stock price increases due to supportive government policies aimed at stabilizing and boosting the real estate market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Shahe Co., Ltd. reached the daily limit up with a 9.99% increase, bringing its total market value to 3.517 billion [2] - Zhuan Mian Group saw a rise of 6.64%, with a total market value of 15.1 billion [2] - New Town Holdings increased by 5.46%, with a market capitalization of 41 billion [2] - Other notable performers include Yingxin Development (+4.98%), Jindi Group (+4.82%), and Jingtou Development (+4.79%) [2] Group 2: Government Policies - Jiangsu Province government held a meeting to discuss policies to stabilize and boost the real estate market [1] - A closed-door seminar ahead of the National Two Sessions suggested measures such as issuing additional government bonds, lowering interest rates, and stabilizing the housing market [1] - Fujian Province issued implementation opinions to promote high-quality urban development, focusing on the renovation of urban villages and old housing [1] - Shenzhen City emphasized the need for organic urban renewal to accelerate the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart housing [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significance of Shanghai's new policy to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing, indicating a strong signal in a declining market. The policy aims to link demand for affordable housing with improvement needs, potentially activating the market by directing purchasing power to higher-priced new and second-hand homes [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate is akin to investing in economic trends. The competitive landscape is expected to improve, benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier cities and select second- and third-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai's Housing Acquisition Policy - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental purposes, with pilot areas including Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui, each having distinct acquisition criteria and models [11] - The policy aims to match housing types with talent needs, focusing on low-priced, small-sized properties to stimulate market activity [12] 2. Market Review - The report notes that the real estate index has shown minimal change, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.34 percentage points. A total of 73 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value, while 40 stocks decreased [15] - The top-performing stocks included Jinglan Technology and Qianjing Garden, with significant weekly gains [21] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week leading up to February 6, new housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 131.2 million square meters, a 5.2% decrease from the previous week but a 138.2% increase year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 4.0% increase week-on-week [26] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities totaled 204.5 million square meters, reflecting a 3.5% decrease week-on-week but a 717.5% increase year-on-year [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the recovery potential of quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, with recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market. The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies, predicting that their profit recovery will occur sooner and be more resilient [2][31]. - The report recommends several quality real estate companies and commercial real estate firms, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Poly Development, as well as commercial real estate firms like New City Holdings and China Resources Land [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.974 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 3.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant drop of 39.4% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in February increased by 327.2%, with first and second-tier cities up by 347.8% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 168.9% [4][10]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.198 million square meters, also down by 6.9% week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions showed a 27.4% increase compared to the previous year [10][31]. Inventory and Supply - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 290,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.62 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.525 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.52% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant policy developments, including the acceleration of commercial real estate REITs applications, with over 10 applications submitted to exchanges as of February 6, 2026. Additionally, Shanghai is advancing the acquisition of second-hand homes for rental housing, with pilot areas identified [31][32]. - Various regions, including Tianjin, Sichuan, and Hainan, have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30% [31][32].