供给拐点已现，二片罐盈利有望触底回升 [Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 行业深度报告 [Table_Summary] 金属包装主要用于食品饮料，其中二片罐和三片罐竞争格局差异显著。 2023 年中国金属包装容器制造行业营业收入为 1505.62 亿元，在包装行 业中的收入占比为 13.05%，是包装行业的重要组成部分。金属包装产品 70%需求来自食品饮料行业，广泛使用的金属包装产品是易拉罐，可分 为二片罐和三片罐。三片罐下游客户粘性强，竞争格局较为稳定；二片 罐市场供需格局变动较为频繁，导致历史罐价波动较大。 供需格局变动较为频繁，二片罐价格呈周期性波动。以宝钢包装为例， 二片罐价格可分为三个阶段：（1）产能集中投产期（2012-2016 年）：2012 年后，中国啤酒和软饮料产量增速放缓，金属包装企业对于下游产量持 续增长的乐观预期落空，大量二片罐产能集中投产导致供需格局逐渐失 衡，二片罐价格承压由 0.52 元/罐下降至 0.37 元/罐；（2）行业整合恢复 期（2016-2022 年）：二片罐价格下降压缩行业盈利空间，龙头企业积极 推动行业整合，部分中小企业逐步出清，波尔、太平洋制罐等外资厂 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on profitability and market conditions, suggesting a favorable investment perspective [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.07 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 37.0% to 217 million yuan [1]. - The report highlights an expected price increase for two-piece cans in 2026 due to improved competitive dynamics, which could significantly enhance profitability for the company [2]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 9.5%, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating stabilization in profitability [2]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was reported at 126 million yuan, down by 261 million yuan year-on-year, indicating temporary pressure on cash flow [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 297 million yuan, a decrease of 29.8% year-on-year, with a revenue forecast of 7.099 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 0.4% [3]. - The gross margin is expected to be 10.1% in 2025, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years, reaching 12.5% by 2027 [3]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 8.2% in 2025, improving to 12.4% by 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.30 yuan in 2025, with a forecasted increase to 0.56 yuan by 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][18]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.07 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.51%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 217 million yuan, a decrease of 36.99% year-on-year [3]. - The industry is currently facing challenges, with a supply-demand imbalance and weak demand in the beverage and beer markets, but there are expectations for a turnaround in profitability as the industry moves towards a "value competition" model [5][6]. - The company is effectively managing its expenses, with a slight decrease in the expense ratio to 5.3% [6]. The overseas business is seen as a key growth driver, with ongoing projects in Cambodia, Indonesia, and Vietnam [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.03%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 69.21 million yuan, a decrease of 37.13% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters were 10.0% and 4.3%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [6]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 297 million yuan, 440 million yuan, and 583 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a significant decrease in 2025 but a recovery in subsequent years [6][8]. Industry Context - The metal packaging industry is experiencing ongoing pain points, with the beer production in China showing a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The average price of aluminum, a key raw material, increased by 5.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, further squeezing profit margins [5]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards more cooperative competition among leading companies, which is expected to improve the overall profitability outlook [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shengxing Co., Ltd. (002752.SZ) reported its Q3 2025 results, highlighting a significant presence of institutional investors holding 66.48% of its total shares, although there was a slight decline in institutional ownership compared to the previous quarter [1] Institutional Ownership - As of October 28, 2025, five institutional investors disclosed holdings in Shengxing Co., totaling 649 million shares, which represents 66.48% of the company's total equity [1] - The institutional ownership decreased by 0.55 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Public Fund Activity - One new public fund disclosed its holdings this quarter, namely the Jinyuan Shun'an Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund [1] - A total of 23 public funds were not disclosed in this quarter compared to the previous one, including notable funds such as the CSI 2000, Huashan Anxin Consumer Mixed A, and others [1] Foreign Investment Trends - One foreign fund, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, reduced its holdings this quarter, with a decrease of 0.25% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the accuracy and completeness of its quarterly financial report, ensuring no false records or misleading statements exist, and that all responsible parties bear legal liability for the report's content [2][3]. Financial Data Summary - The third-quarter financial report has not been audited [7]. - The company confirms that there are no adjustments or restatements required for previous accounting data [3]. - There are no non-recurring profit and loss items applicable for this quarter [3]. Shareholder Information - The report includes details on the total number of common shareholders and the top ten shareholders' holdings, but there are no changes reported due to share lending activities [5].

Group 1 - The company reported a revenue of 5.07 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.51% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 217 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 36.99% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 196 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 39.98% [1]

Group 1 - The company's Q3 revenue reached 1.845 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.03% [1] - The net profit for Q3 was 69.2091 million, showing a decline of 37.13% compared to the previous year [1] - For the first three quarters, the total revenue was 5.07 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.51% [1] Group 2 - The net profit for the first three quarters amounted to 217 million, reflecting a decrease of 36.99% year-on-year [1]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2025 was ¥1,845,097,972.20, representing a 4.03% increase year-over-year[4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 37.13% to ¥69,209,115.43 for the same period[4] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was ¥62,784,082.01, down 41.10% compared to the previous year[4] - The basic earnings per share (EPS) was ¥0.07, a decrease of 36.36% year-over-year[4] - Total operating revenue for the current period reached ¥5,069,985,198.35, an increase of 1.8% compared to ¥4,994,601,506.65 in the previous period[20] - Net profit for the current period was ¥217,516,522.01, a decrease of 37.8% from ¥350,360,431.83 in the previous period[21] - Total comprehensive income for the period attributable to the parent company was CNY 201,586,885.12, down from CNY 335,348,636.86 in the previous period, representing a decrease of approximately 40%[22] - Basic and diluted earnings per share decreased to CNY 0.22 from CNY 0.35, reflecting a decline of about 37%[22] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets increased by 4.10% to ¥8,263,512,181.53 compared to the end of the previous year[4] - The company's total assets increased to ¥8,263,512,181.53, compared to ¥7,938,402,370.96 in the previous period, marking a growth of 4.1%[18] - Total liabilities rose to ¥4,787,307,858.96, up from ¥4,451,524,202.65, indicating an increase of 7.5%[19] - The company's long-term borrowings increased to ¥430,428,271.54 from ¥286,689,241.30, reflecting a significant rise of 50.0%[19] Cash Flow - The company's cash flow from operating activities was ¥545,735,626.84, showing a decline of 2.99% year-to-date[4] - Net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 545,735,626.84, slightly down from CNY 562,534,753.09, a decrease of around 3%[24] - Cash inflow from operating activities totaled CNY 5,633,338,127.99, compared to CNY 5,529,436,629.05 in the previous period, indicating an increase of approximately 1.9%[23] - Cash outflow from operating activities was CNY 5,087,602,501.15, up from CNY 4,966,901,875.96, representing an increase of about 2.4%[24] - The net cash flow from investing activities decreased by 65.93% to -¥268,485,463.07, attributed to increased investment activities during the reporting period[11] - Net cash flow from investing activities was negative at CNY -268,485,463.07, worsening from CNY -161,807,882.96 in the previous period[24] - Cash inflow from financing activities was CNY 1,557,483,831.99, slightly down from CNY 1,572,864,746.74, a decrease of about 1%[24] - Net cash flow from financing activities improved by 70.35% to -¥173,491,240.28, primarily due to a reduction in repaid borrowings[11] - Net cash flow from financing activities was negative at CNY -173,491,240.28, improving from CNY -585,088,524.92 in the previous period[24] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents increased to CNY 394,295,095.19 from CNY 337,030,708.69, an increase of approximately 17%[24] Shareholder Information - The total number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 27,930[13] - The largest shareholder, Shengxing Holdings Limited, holds 55.63% of the shares, amounting to 543,416,873 shares, with 58,580,000 shares pledged[13] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to permanently supplement working capital with remaining funds of ¥1,018.32 million from a completed investment project[14] - The registered capital of the wholly-owned subsidiary, Shengxing (Hong Kong) Limited, will increase from $16.7 million to $27.7 million following a planned capital injection of $11 million[14] Expenses - Research and development expenses decreased to ¥35,241,622.24 from ¥48,404,000.89, a reduction of 27.1%[21] - The company reported a decrease in sales expenses to ¥19,716,781.91 from ¥27,182,333.49, a decline of 27.5%[21] Other Financial Metrics - Financial expenses decreased by 33.50% to ¥20,981,538.11 compared to the previous period, primarily due to reduced interest expenses and exchange gains/losses[11] - Investment income increased by 43.84% to ¥4,806,790.97, mainly driven by higher profits from futures investments[11] - Credit impairment losses showed a significant change, with a loss of ¥1,503,751.27 compared to a gain of ¥1,551.37 in the previous period, reflecting a reversal of prior provisions[11] Audit Status - The company’s third-quarter financial report was not audited, indicating a need for caution in interpreting the results[26]

Group 1 - The metal packaging sector is experiencing significant growth due to an improving supply-demand landscape, with clear signals indicating a bottoming out of the cycle [1] - The fourth quarter is typically a negotiation window for industry pricing, and attention should be paid to the pricing strategies of leading companies [1] - Leading companies are expected to collaborate in the negotiation process to implement price increases, with a focus on companies such as Orijin (002701.SZ), Baosteel Packaging (601968.SH), and Shengxing Co. (002752.SZ) [1] Group 2 - The supply-side landscape is becoming more concentrated, with increasing industrial synergy effects [1] - Orijin's acquisition of COFCO Packaging has resulted in a CR3 of over 70% in the metal two-piece can industry, with Orijin holding approximately 40% market share [1] - The industry is shifting its focus from scale expansion to stable profit growth, which is expected to enhance overall profitability [1] Group 3 - The beer canning rate in China is expected to increase, driving steady growth in demand [2] - Approximately 70% of the demand in China's metal packaging market comes from the food and beverage sector, with a significant difference in channel structure compared to overseas markets [2] - China's beer canning rate is currently over 30%, significantly lower than Japan's (over 80%) and the global average (50%), indicating substantial room for growth as non-immediate consumption channels increase [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to optimize the asset structure of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hong Kong Shengxing, by increasing its capital with self-owned funds of 11 million USD, enhancing its financial strength [1] Group 1 - The capital increase will raise the registered capital of Hong Kong Shengxing from 16.7 million USD to 27.7 million USD [1] - The equity structure of Hong Kong Shengxing will remain unchanged, with the company retaining 100% ownership [1]