Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed banks are experiencing significant changes in their business structures, particularly in the consumer loan sector, amidst a challenging macroeconomic environment and tightening interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Loan Growth - The total consumer loan balance has surged by nearly 750 billion yuan, with most banks reporting substantial increases in their consumer loan portfolios [3][5]. - Among 23 listed banks, only six reported a decrease in consumer loan balances for 2024, with Ping An Bank seeing the largest reduction of 70.63 billion yuan [5]. - Major banks like Postal Savings Bank, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China have reported double-digit growth in consumer loans, with increases of 17.88%, 26.21%, and 38.03% respectively [6][7]. Group 2: Risk Management Concerns - Industry insiders express concerns about rising non-performing loans (NPLs) in the consumer loan sector, indicating that banks must tighten risk controls as economic cycles fluctuate [2][12]. - Several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have reported increases in their consumer loan NPL ratios, highlighting the need for enhanced risk management strategies [12][13]. - The rapid growth of consumer loans has raised alarms about potential risks, with banks emphasizing the importance of maintaining asset quality and effective post-loan management [12][14]. Group 3: Regulatory Changes and Market Dynamics - In March, regulatory changes extended the repayment period for consumer loans from five to seven years and increased the maximum loan amount, aiming to support consumer spending [10]. - Following these changes, banks quickly halted low-interest consumer loans to prevent a price war that could lead to increased risks [12]. - The competitive landscape for consumer loans is shifting, with banks focusing on the relatively lower costs and stable returns associated with consumer lending compared to corporate lending [9].

证券代码：002807 证券简称：江阴银行 公告编号：2025-010 江苏江阴农村商业银行股份有限公司 关于独立董事任期届满辞职的公告 公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、误导性 陈述或重大遗漏。 2025年4月8日 1 江苏江阴农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"本行"）董事会近日收到 本行独立董事乐宜仁先生的辞职报告。因连续担任本行独立董事满 6 年，根据监 管部门和本行《章程》关于独立董事任职期限的规定，乐宜仁先生申请辞去本行 独立董事、董事会关联交易控制委员会主任委员、提名及薪酬委员会委员的职务。 乐宜仁先生已确认其与本行董事会无不同意见，亦无任何其他事项需要通 知本行股东和债权人。由于乐宜仁先生辞职将导致本行独立董事人数低于董事会 人数的三分之一，在本行股东大会选举产生新的独立董事并经监管部门核准任职 资格履职前，乐宜仁先生将按照法律法规和本行《章程》的规定，继续履行独立 董事职责。本行将按照相关规定尽快完成独立董事补选工作。 截至本公告日，乐宜仁先生未持有本行股份。 乐宜仁先生在担任本行独立董事期间，恪尽职守，勤勉尽责，在完善董事会 监督体系、推动提升公司治理水平 ...

Group 1 - The retail non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 23 listed banks continues to rise, with a slight decrease in overall NPL ratio to 1.25% as of Q4 2024, down 2bps from Q4 2023. However, retail loan NPL ratios have generally increased, with state-owned banks seeing an average rise of 29bps compared to Q4 2023 [1][2][3] - The average retail credit cost for listed banks in 2024 is 1.24%, a decrease of 3bps year-on-year. State-owned banks have a lower average retail credit cost of 0.99%, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-risk personal housing loans [2][3] - Looking ahead, banks are expected to manage retail loan risks by tightening customer eligibility and employing various asset disposal strategies, with the impact on asset quality being relatively controllable [4] Group 2 - The report highlights that the retail loan structure of banks has shifted, with personal housing loans making up an average of 60.9% of the total retail loans for state-owned banks, which is 17.6 percentage points higher than the sample average [2][16] - Specific banks such as Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank have seen a decrease in retail credit costs, with Ping An Bank's credit cost dropping by 34bps year-on-year, largely due to a reduction in credit card NPLs [3][4] - The report suggests that banks like Postal Savings Bank have improved their asset quality, with a notable decrease in consumer loan NPLs by 12.2 billion yuan, resulting in a NPL ratio decline of 47bps to 1.34% [4][8]

Core Insights - The financial reports of 23 A-share listed banks for 2024 show stable revenue and profit, with total revenue at 5.04 trillion yuan and net profit at 1.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year decline of 0.6% in revenue and a growth of 1.88% in profit [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Total revenue for the 23 listed banks in 2024 is 5.04 trillion yuan, down 0.6% from the previous year [2] - The six major state-owned banks reported a total revenue of 3.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 94.25 billion yuan from last year [2] - Among the state-owned banks, Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank experienced revenue declines of 2.54% and 2.52%, respectively [2] - In contrast, most city and rural commercial banks showed revenue growth, with eight banks reporting increases, including Ruifeng Bank and Changshu Bank, which grew by 15.29% and 10.53% respectively [2] Net Profit Performance - The net profit for the 23 listed banks totaled 1.93 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.88% [3] - State-owned banks achieved a combined net profit of 1.42 trillion yuan, with Agricultural Bank leading the growth at 4.76% [3] - Among the listed joint-stock banks, three reported declines in net profit, with Minsheng Bank experiencing a notable drop of 9.07% [3] Net Interest Margin Trends - The average net interest margin for the 23 listed banks in 2024 was 1.65%, down from 1.83% in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 19 basis points [5][6] - The net interest margin for major state-owned banks is generally below 1.5%, with only Postal Savings Bank exceeding this threshold at 1.87% [6][7] Asset Quality and Risks - Overall asset quality among listed banks is improving, with most banks reporting a decline in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios [9] - However, there are structural risks, particularly in personal operating loans, which have seen a significant increase in both scale and NPL ratios, averaging 1.81% across ten banks, up 29 basis points from 2023 [9][10] - The total balance of personal operating loans across 19 banks reached 8.32 trillion yuan, a 40.8% increase from the previous year [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the net profit of listed banks is expected to grow by 1.8% year-on-year for 2024, with a notable increase in growth rate compared to the first three quarters [4][10]. - Revenue decline is narrowing, with a projected revenue growth rate of -0.6% for 2024, an improvement from -1.6% in the previous quarters [11][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic economic recovery and the impact of recent growth-stabilizing policies on banking performance [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Profitability Breakdown - The net interest income for listed banks is expected to decline by 2.3% in 2024, an improvement from a 3.2% decline in the first three quarters [11][12]. - Non-interest income, particularly from investment gains, is projected to increase by 28% due to falling bond yields, partially offsetting revenue pressures [11][12]. - The report notes that the cost-to-income ratio has increased to 32.8%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point rise year-on-year [7]. 2. Operational Analysis - Asset growth for listed banks has decreased to 7.2%, with loan growth at 7.7%, indicating stable overall growth despite a slight decline [22][23]. - The annualized net interest margin is projected to decrease to 1.43%, primarily due to asset pricing pressures [24]. - The report indicates that the quality of assets remains stable, with non-performing loan ratios showing slight fluctuations but overall stability [7][22]. 3. Dividend and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights a stable dividend payout ratio, with 9 banks increasing their dividend rates compared to the previous year [7]. - Investment recommendations focus on "pro-cyclical and high dividend" strategies, with an average dividend yield of 4.3% for the sector, which remains attractive compared to risk-free rates [7][8]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include Chengdu Bank, Suzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank, which are expected to benefit from regional economic recovery [8][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Jiangyin Bank (002807.SZ) with a current price of 4.45 CNY [1]. Core Views - Jiangyin Bank's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 3.96 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.04 billion CNY, up 7.9% year-on-year. The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) is 11.55%, down 1 percentage point year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Jiangyin Bank's revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit growth rates for 2024 are 2.5%, -4.8%, and 7.9%, respectively, with improvements of 1.2, 0.7, and 1.1 percentage points compared to the first three quarters [4]. - The net interest income and non-interest income growth rates are -6% and 31.2%, respectively, with increases of 1.3 and 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous three quarters [4]. Loan and Deposit Growth - By the end of 2024, the growth rates for interest-earning assets and loans are 6.6% and 7.6%, respectively, showing a slight improvement from the end of Q3 2024 [5]. - The bank's deposits grew at a rate of 9.1% year-on-year, with a notable increase in time deposits, which accounted for 63% of total deposits by year-end [6]. Net Interest Margin (NIM) and Income Structure - The NIM increased by 2 basis points to 1.76% despite a decline in asset yields and loan pricing pressure [7]. - Non-interest income reached 1.16 billion CNY, growing by 31% year-on-year, with significant contributions from investment income [8]. Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - By the end of 2024, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and attention ratio were 0.86% and 1.22%, respectively, indicating a decrease from the previous quarter [9]. - The capital adequacy ratios are robust, with the core Tier 1 capital ratio at 14.1% and the total capital adequacy ratio at 15.2% [10]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 0.86 CNY, 0.89 CNY, and 0.91 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating a favorable valuation [11].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed signs of recovery on March 31, with the three major indices narrowing their declines, led by gains in the banking, telecommunications, and electric power sectors [1] - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159549) experienced a net inflow of over 37 million yuan over three consecutive trading days, indicating strong investor interest despite market fluctuations [1] - Xinda Securities suggests that the cyclical dividend sector may regain its value in terms of absolute and excess returns amid the recent pullback in the technology sector [1] Group 2 - Huachuang Securities notes that the current market pullback is primarily due to price decline risks, emphasizing the importance of boosting domestic demand [2] - The Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159549) closely tracks the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 Index, which selects 100 stocks from the A-share market based on liquidity, continuous dividends, high dividend yield, and low volatility [2] - The report highlights that if export pressures lead to increased price decline risks, dividend stocks in sectors like banking, water, electricity, highways, and ports will outperform [2]

Group 1 - The banking sector showed resilience with a gradual recovery after a low opening, as evidenced by the Bank ETF Preferred (517900) rising by 0.07% and key stocks like Jiangyin Bank, China Construction Bank, and Shanghai Bank leading the gains [3] - Major state-owned banks, including China Bank, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank, announced significant fundraising plans, with China Bank raising up to RMB 165 billion and China Construction Bank up to RMB 105 billion, aimed at bolstering core tier one capital [3][4] - The Ministry of Finance's involvement in these capital increases is expected to enhance the capital adequacy ratios of major state-owned banks, thereby improving their risk resilience and ability to support long-term credit investments in infrastructure and green finance [4] Group 2 - The capital injection from the Ministry of Finance is seen as a stabilizing factor for state-owned capital, balancing the interests of minority shareholders and alleviating valuation pressures on bank stocks [4] - The trend of capital replenishment is likely to drive a recovery in the financial sector's valuations and provide additional opportunities for brokerage and asset management businesses [4] - Despite the potential dilution effects of the capital injection, major banks are expected to maintain a sustainable dividend yield that is higher than the average in the A-H share market, indicating long-term investment value [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for Jiangyin Bank (002807.SZ) [6] Core Views - The company's revenue growth has rebounded, with a 2.51% increase in operating income and a 7.88% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2024, driven by scale expansion, reduced provisions, and a decline in minority shareholder losses [2][4] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has decreased to 0.86% as of Q4 2024, down 4 basis points from Q3 2024, indicating improved asset quality [2][4] - The net interest margin remained stable at 1.76%, with slight improvements observed in the fourth quarter of 2024 [3][4] Summary by Sections Performance - In 2024, Jiangyin Bank reported operating income of 3,962 million, a 2.51% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 2,037 million, reflecting a 7.88% increase [5][14] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit growth of 9.25%, benefiting from a narrowing decline in non-interest income and reduced provisions [2][4] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income increased by 32.27% year-on-year, with an additional 275 million from other non-interest income sources, primarily from debt investment disposals [2][5] Asset Quality - The NPL balance decreased to 1,070 million, down 0.19 million from Q3 2024, and the attention rate improved to 1.22%, a 19 basis point improvement [2][4] - The provision coverage ratio stood at 369.32% as of Q4 2024, down from the previous quarter [4][14] Capital and Shareholders - The bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio is high, and it has ample free capital flow, indicating strong financial health [4][6] - The report highlights the bank's regional advantages and continuous scale expansion as key factors for potential value investment [4][6]

江苏江阴农村商业银行股份有限公司 审计报告及财务报表 （2024 年 01 月 01 日至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止） | | 目录 | 页次 | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、 | 审计报告 | 1-5 | | 二、 | 财务报表 | | | | 合并资产负债表和母公司资产负债表 | 1-2 | | | 合并利润表和母公司利润表 | 3-4 | | | 合并现金流量表和母公司现金流量表 | 5-6 | | | 合并所有者权益变动表和母公司所有者权益变动 | 7-10 | | | 表 | | | | 财务报表附注 | 1-147 | 审计报告 信会师报字[2025]第 ZH10026 号 江苏江阴农村商业银行股份有限公司全体股东： 一、 审计意见 我们审计了江苏江阴农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称江阴 银行）财务报表，包括 2024 年 12 月 31 日的合并及母公司资产负债 表，2024 年度的合并及母公司利润表、合并及母公司现金流量表、合 并及母公司所有者权益变动表以及相关财务报表附注。 我们认为，后附的财务报表在所有重大方面按照企业会计准则的 规定编制，公允反映了江阴银行 ...