过去大半年，不少消费者发现，原本被视为"性价比担当"的茶饮、快餐外卖，正在悄然变贵。无论是茶 饮，还是连锁快餐，外卖端整体涨价。与以往单一品牌、个别产品的价格调整不同，这一轮变化呈现出 明显的"同步性"——多个外卖渠道占比较高的品牌，几乎在同一时期对外卖定价或优惠力度作出调整。 据南都记者不完全统计，因"广德三件套"爆火的"卡旺卡"奶茶去年9月对多款热门饮品涨价1-2元，外卖 渠道同步调价，品牌回应为是平衡原料成本与产品品质而做出的调整；奈雪的茶去年中上调广深地区的 早餐套餐价格，从之前9.9元上调至15.9元，外卖渠道价格同步上调；瑞幸咖啡去年开始大幅减少了9.9 元产品占比，不少经典产品的单价涨至12.9元，据称是为了应对补贴退潮后带来的成本压力。 消费末端涨价，最容易让人联想的理由就是上游成本上升，而这的确是这波涨价潮最直接的原因之一。 南都N视频记者询问了多个供应链环节的商家，他们都表示，近年来，水果、茶叶这类原材料的价格都 在上涨。某茶饮品牌供应链的负责人举例称："比如这两年很火的椰子水、椰浆一类的原料，价格涨幅 高达300%，主要是东南亚地区减产叠加海运成本上升。" 南都记者查阅数据显示，以茶饮企 ...

2020-2025年中国乳制品产量统计图 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国乳制品行业市场运营态势及投资前景趋势报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国乳制品产量为267万吨，同比下降1.8%；2025年中国乳制品 累计产量为2950.3万吨，累计下降1.1%。 上市企业：伊利股份（600887）,光明乳业（600597）,三元股份（600429）,新乳业（002946）,皇氏集团 （002329）,燕塘乳业（002732）,庄园牧场（002910）,品渥食品（300892） 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 ...

Core Insights - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a rise of 0.51% on January 28, with Liziyuan leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] Sector Performance - Liziyuan (605337) closed at 13.56, up 5.85% with a trading volume of 388,600 shares [1] - Sanyuan (600429) closed at 5.45, up 4.21% with a trading volume of 482,000 shares [1] - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) closed at 254.51, up 3.54% with a trading volume of 47,700 shares [1] - Other notable performers include Weiwe (600300) up 1.65% and Qishi Dairy (920786) up 1.18% [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net inflow of 1.51 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 12.8 million yuan [2] - However, there was a net outflow of 129 million yuan from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Liziyuan had a net inflow of 62.55 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 17.26 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Yili (600887) saw a net inflow of 33.78 million yuan from institutional investors, but a significant net outflow of 71.72 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Sanyuan (600429) had a net inflow of 22.36 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 27.12 million yuan [3]

乳制品周期展望：26 年原奶价格有望迎来 回升 2026 年 1 月 26 日 看好/维持 食品饮料 行业报告 | 分析师 | 孟斯硕 电话：010-66554041 邮箱：mengssh@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480520070004 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 王洁婷 电话：021-25102900 邮箱：wangjt@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480520070003 | 投资摘要： 本轮奶价调整周期较长但接近尾声。通常一个完整的奶价周期从上升到下降大概 6 年左右，且上升周期长，下降周期短。而 本次周期从 2019 年奶价开始上升， 2021 年奶价开始调整至今，已经历经了 7 年，其中奶价下降了 5 年的时间。本轮周期 主要由自 19 年起的乳企自建奶源的产能过度扩张，叠加疫情后需求端走弱导致的供需失衡所致。随着牧场规模化程度提升 以及和下游乳企联系愈发紧密，牧场抗风险能力增强，使得本轮周期调整时间较以往更长。但我们结合周期长度以及供需关 系的变化判断本轮调整周期接近尾声。 牧场存栏量进一步去化，但奶牛单产提升带动产奶量略微 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a decline of 0.18% on January 23, with Miaokelan leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the beverage and dairy sector included: - Quanyangquan (code: 681009) with a closing price of 8.37, up 2.45% and a trading volume of 419,500 shares, totaling 351 million yuan [1] - Huanlejia (code: 300997) closed at 24.80, up 2.31% with a trading volume of 98,400 shares, totaling 242 million yuan [1] - Qiaoyuan Beverage (code: 603156) closed at 33.86, up 1.93% with a trading volume of 108,900 shares, totaling 364 million yuan [1] - Conversely, the following stocks saw declines: - Miaokelan (code: 600882) closed at 23.75, down 3.34% with a trading volume of 153,200 shares, totaling 368 million yuan [2] - Weiweijia (code: 600300) closed at 3.71, down 2.11% with a trading volume of 665,200 shares, totaling 248 million yuan [2] - New Dairy (code: 002946) closed at 19.19, down 1.34% with a trading volume of 45,200 shares, totaling 86.94 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net outflow of 141 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 229 million yuan [2] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - Yili Group (code: 600887) with a net inflow of 1.10 billion yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 162.69 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Huangshi Group (code: 002329) had a net inflow of 13.98 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 5.66 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Liziyuan (code: 605337) saw a net inflow of 8.75 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 1.70 million yuan from retail investors [3]

智通财经APP获悉，华西证券发布研报称，近期人民币汇率持续走强。复盘历史，升值周期中食品饮料 板块通常能跑赢大盘。本轮升值有望通过降低进口成本、提振内需景气、吸引外资增配三条路径，推动 板块迎来成本、需求与估值的共振修复，相关主线标的有望受益。 华西证券主要观点如下： 成本端来看，人民币升值降低进口原料折算价格下降，推动制造成本下行，进而带来盈利改善，涉及的 核心原材料包含大豆、棕榈油、燕麦、大麦、树坚果等。 需求端来看，内需修复是汇率走强的底层支撑，而人民币升值将进一步降低企业补库成本，推动行业 从"被动去库"转向"主动补库"，补库扩产又会强化内需韧性，形成正向循环。食品饮料作为必选消费， 内需复苏确定性更强，景气度有望持续抬升。 资金端来看，人民币升值周期下流动性持续宽裕，外资流入A股动力增强，带来板块流动性溢价，食品 饮料作为外资持仓占比较高的消费板块之一，板块有望迎来外资增配带来的估值修复。 投资建议 受益于板块三重共振，重点关注三条主线：1）成本红利，重点推荐西麦食品、立高食品、妙可蓝多、 洽洽食品、H&H等；2）景气度抬升，重点推荐安井食品、千味央厨、优然牧业、现代牧业、新乳业、 万辰集团；3）估 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - Recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to continue, enhancing domestic asset attractiveness and improving the competitiveness of export products [1] - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation periods, the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12% respectively, indicating strong performance potential in the current cycle [2] - The current RMB appreciation is anticipated to create a triple resonance effect in the sector, leading to cost reduction, increased demand, and valuation recovery [2] Summary by Sections Cost Side - RMB appreciation reduces the import cost of raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2] Demand Side - Domestic demand recovery is a fundamental support for the strengthening RMB. The appreciation will lower inventory replenishment costs for companies, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active replenishment, thus reinforcing domestic demand resilience [2] Capital Side - The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, increasing foreign capital inflow into A-shares. The food and beverage sector, with a high proportion of foreign holdings, is expected to benefit from valuation recovery driven by increased foreign allocation [2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main lines of investment: 1. Cost benefits: Recommended companies include Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3] 2. Demand recovery: Recommended companies include Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Livestock, Modern Dairy, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3] 3. Valuation recovery: Recommended companies include Yili, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Key companies and their respective ratings, earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2024 to 2027 are provided, indicating a positive outlook for several companies in the sector [7]

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a decline of 1.55% on January 21, with Huanlejia leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the beverage and dairy sector showed varied performance, with Sunshine Dairy rising by 2.02% to a closing price of 16.14, while Huanlejia fell by 11.25% to 23.90 [2][1] - Other notable performers included Yangyuan Beverage, which increased by 0.23% to 34.53, and several stocks like Xibumuyou and Qianyuan Group remained flat [1][2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector saw a net outflow of 340 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 336 million yuan [2] - The trading volume for Huanlejia was significant, with 210,400 shares traded, resulting in a transaction value of 517 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Yili Group had a net inflow of 25.78 million yuan from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 15.84 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Sunshine Dairy also saw a minor net inflow from speculative funds amounting to 4.32 million yuan, despite a net outflow from retail investors [3]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively closed lower on January 20, with a total market turnover of approximately 2.8 trillion yuan, and over 2,200 stocks rose, including 63 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Institutional Ratings - A total of 11 buy ratings were issued by institutions today, covering 9 stocks, with Hunan YN and Keda receiving 2 buy ratings each [2] - Among the stocks with buy ratings, 6 companies provided earnings forecasts for 2025, with Hunan YN expected to see a net profit increase of 114.81% year-on-year, followed by Zhenyu Technology and Keda with expected increases of 106.74% and 59.82% respectively [2] Industry Focus - The power equipment industry was the most favored by institutions, with 4 stocks including Hunan YN and Keda listed [2] - The automotive and food & beverage industries also attracted institutional attention, each having 2 stocks featured [2] Institutional Trading - In the top trading list, 17 stocks had net buying amounts exceeding 10 million yuan, with Hunan Baiyin leading at 80.83 million yuan, followed by Tongyu Communications at 55.55 million yuan [4] - Among the net selling stocks, Sanwei Communication faced the highest net sell of 194 million yuan [4] Northbound Capital - 12 stocks on the northbound trading list saw net buying, with Tongyu Communications leading at 97.57 million yuan, followed by Tiantong Co. and Hunan Baiyin, both exceeding 60 million yuan [6] Company Announcements - ST Saiwei (300044) announced an expected net profit loss of 720 million to 1.02 billion yuan for 2025, influenced by litigation and arbitration judgments [7] - Kangxin New Materials (600076) plans to acquire 51% of Wuxi Yubang Semiconductor Technology for 392 million yuan, marking its expansion into the semiconductor sector [8] - Huadian Technology (601226) signed a procurement contract worth approximately 374 million yuan for a wind-solar hydrogen project [8] - China Merchants Energy (601872) plans to build 4 container ships with a total investment of up to 1.324 billion yuan [9] - Anhui Construction (600502) received project bids totaling 13.76 million yuan for two projects [9]