Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 23 yuan [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to accelerate its revenue growth in Q4 2025, with a projected overall revenue growth rate reaching mid-to-high single digits. The net profit margin is anticipated to improve to around 6.5%, exceeding initial targets [6][7]. - The company has successfully launched new products that have performed well in the market, indicating strong innovation capabilities and effective management [6][7]. - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of continued double-digit growth in the low-temperature dairy segment and a recovery in the ambient dairy segment [6][7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 10,665 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.9%. By 2027, revenue is expected to grow to 12,519 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.8% [2]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 538 million yuan in 2024 to 993 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 24.8% in 2024 and 16.0% in 2027 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.62 yuan in 2024 to 1.15 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 30 to 16 over the same period [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Dairy has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 5.09% and significant gains over various trading periods, indicating a strong market interest in the company [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 19, New Hope Dairy's stock price increased by 2.05%, reaching 19.40 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 16.697 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has experienced a 4.30% increase over the last five trading days, a 7.12% increase over the last 20 days, and a 13.12% increase over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Hope Dairy reported a revenue of 8.434 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 623 million CNY, marking a significant increase of 31.48% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, New Hope Dairy has distributed a total of 737 million CNY in dividends, with 508 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of January 9, 2025, the number of shareholders for New Hope Dairy increased by 1.88% to 13,400, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 1.85% to 63,647 shares [2]. - Notable institutional shareholders include China Europe Value Select Mixed Fund, which increased its holdings by 2.0809 million shares, and Huatai-PB Vision Select Mixed Fund, which is a new shareholder with 3.8481 million shares [3].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage industry, consistent with previous ratings, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4] - The report highlights the cautious inventory management in the liquor market, particularly in Henan, with the upcoming Spring Festival sales performance still uncertain [17][19] - The demand for frozen food in Henan is showing signs of improvement as preparations for the Spring Festival begin, with increased confidence among distributors [22] - In Shanghai, the "锅圈" (Guoquan) stores are undergoing significant renovations, leading to a notable increase in daily sales post-renovation [25][27] Weekly Focus: Henan & Shanghai Market Tracking - **Henan Liquor Market**: Inventory levels are low, and major brands like Moutai are seeing stable pricing, with the Spring Festival sales performance yet to be observed [17][19] - **Henan Food Supply Market**: Distributors are beginning to stock up for the Spring Festival, with a slight uptick in demand noted [22] - **Shanghai Guoquan Store Renovations**: The store renovations have led to a significant increase in daily sales, with new product categories contributing to revenue growth [25][27] Food and Beverage Sector Overview - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.1% in the week of January 12-16, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [29] - The valuation of the food and beverage sector stands at a PE-TTM of 21.2X, with the white liquor sector at 18.3X, indicating a relative valuation compared to the broader market [43][46] Recent Key Announcements & News - The report includes updates on major companies like Qianwei Culinary and Sanquan Foods, highlighting their strategic adjustments and product innovations aimed at enhancing competitiveness [23][24] - The report notes that the industry is moving away from price wars towards a focus on product innovation and quality assurance [24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends key liquor brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Moutai, as well as consumer goods companies like Anjuke Foods and Tianwei Foods, indicating potential investment opportunities [8][12]

Core Insights - The overall sales performance of offline channels in the food and beverage sector is under pressure for the period of January to December 2025, with notable differentiation in the soft drink industry across various segments [1] - Functional beverages and ready-to-drink juices are maintaining high single-digit growth, while the snack food category shows strong growth in konjac products and healthy snacks [1] Beverage Sector - Beer sales are under pressure with a year-on-year decline of 6.7% in sales for January to December 2025, although average prices continue to rise [2] - Ready-to-drink cocktails have seen a cumulative year-on-year sales decline of 9.9%, while the market share of the brand Rio remains stable [2] - The soft drink industry shows varied performance across segments, with functional beverages experiencing a year-on-year sales increase of 9.3% and ready-to-drink juices seeing an average price increase of 7.8% [2] Dairy Products - The demand for dairy products continues to face pressure, although there is a quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2025 [2] - Leading dairy companies are performing relatively well in the low-temperature yogurt segment, which is positively impacting overall yogurt performance compared to the broader dairy market [2] Condiments and Snacks - Basic condiments prioritize price, with leading brands continuing to capture market share [3] - The performance of spicy snack foods shows significant differentiation, with konjac products and certain specialty items providing crucial support [3] - Healthy snacks are experiencing notable growth, while the nut and dried fruit category is under pressure due to the timing of the Spring Festival affecting December sales [3] - Sweet snacks are generally underperforming, with widespread year-on-year declines [3] Frozen Foods - Hot pot ingredients are showing a trend of volume growth with stable prices, while competition remains fierce in the frozen dumpling and tangyuan markets [3] - By December 2025, the frozen food sector enters a peak stocking phase, with hot pot ingredients, frozen prepared foods, and frozen snacks achieving year-on-year growth, while frozen dumplings and tangyuan continue to face pressure [3] Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the A-share market include Anjuke Food, Yanjinpuzi, New Dairy, Ximai Food, Yanjing Beer, Dongpeng Beverage, Yili Group, Qianhe Flavor, and Haitian Flavor [4] - Recommended stocks in the H-share market include Weilong, Gu Ming, Master Kong, Uni-President China, Nongfu Spring, China Resources Beer, Mengniu Dairy, and Qingdao Beer [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that New Dairy (002946) has reported its total number of shareholders as 13,366 as of January 9, 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector relative to the broader market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December 2025 reached its highest year-on-year increase since March 2023, with food prices continuing to improve. This is attributed to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and increased consumer spending during the New Year period [5][48]. - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.12% increase in the market last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.66 percentage points, ranking 26th among 31 sectors [10]. - Key companies such as Sam's Club and Alibaba are expanding aggressively, with Sam's Club projected to exceed 140 billion yuan in sales for 2025, marking a 40% increase from 2024 [48]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance was highlighted, with a 2.12% increase last week, while the pre-processed food sub-sector performed particularly well with a 6.72% increase [10][13]. - The top five performing stocks included Qianwei Yangchun, Anji Food, and Yangyuan Beverage, with respective increases of 22.52%, 18.34%, and 14.78% [10][15]. 2. Price Trends - The report notes that food prices have shown significant increases, particularly in fresh vegetables and fruits, which rose by 18.2% and 4.4% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - The price of milk was reported at 12.17 yuan per liter, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.16% [26]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the expansion of membership supermarkets and instant retail, with notable growth in companies like Sam's Club and Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale [48][49]. - The government is implementing a comprehensive policy to stimulate domestic demand, focusing on enhancing consumer spending and supporting private investment [49]. 4. Core Company Updates - New Dairy announced a cash dividend of 0.70 yuan per share, while Fuling Pickled Vegetables and Luzhou Laojiao also declared significant cash dividends [51].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 1月12日，新乳业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月9日公司股东总户数 为13366户。 ...

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector increased by 0.25% compared to the previous trading day, with Pinwo Food leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4165.29, up 1.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14366.91, up 1.75% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the beverage and dairy sector included: - Aluminum Wine Foods (300892) with a closing price of 35.68, up 12.56% and a trading volume of 112,000 shares, totaling 380 million yuan [1] - Huanlejia (300997) closed at 31.80, up 6.32% with a trading volume of 248,700 shares, totaling 763 million yuan [1] - Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) closed at 12.02, up 4.43% with a trading volume of 245,600 shares, totaling 290 million yuan [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 74.61 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 55.31 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors increased their positions [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Key stocks and their capital flow include: - Pinwo Food (300892) had a net outflow of 44.43 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors also showing a net outflow of 26.15 million yuan [3] - Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910) saw a net inflow of 15.69 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net outflow of 11.63 million yuan [3] - Knight Dairy (920786) experienced a net inflow of 11.26 million yuan from institutional investors, with a small net inflow from retail investors [3]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a downturn, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) showing a decline of 1.01% as of the latest report [1] - Major stocks in the sector, particularly leading liquor and dairy companies, are facing significant drops, with Yili Co. falling over 4% and other companies like Kweichow Moutai and Gujing Gongjiu also declining [1] - The current consumption industry is entering a strategic opportunity period supported by policies, with a focus on domestic demand as a core economic task, which is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector [1][3] Group 2 - Pacific Securities notes that upcoming policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are anticipated to improve consumption, particularly in high-end luxury goods, which may positively impact the broader consumer market [3] - The food and beverage sector's valuation is at a historical low, with the Huabao ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 20.27 times, indicating a favorable entry point for long-term investments [3] - The liquor industry is nearing a bottom in its fundamentals, with major companies like Moutai and Wuliangye implementing market-driven adjustments, suggesting potential for recovery in sales during the 2026 Spring Festival [3][4] Group 3 - Citic Construction points out that some food and beverage stocks are expected to exceed performance expectations due to their differentiated advantages, despite a temporary slowdown in revenue growth [4] - The liquor sector is seeing major companies managing inventory and optimizing channel structures, which may lead to improved profitability despite short-term challenges [4] - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF is heavily weighted towards leading high-end liquor stocks and also includes significant positions in dairy and beverage companies, making it a key asset for investors in the sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy product industry is experiencing a decline in production, with a notable decrease in output for 2025 compared to previous years [1] Industry Summary - In November 2025, China's dairy product output was 243,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [1] - From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of dairy products in China reached 2,685,000 tons, showing a cumulative decline of 1.2% [1] - The report by Zhiyan Consulting outlines the market operation status and investment prospects for the Chinese dairy product industry from 2026 to 2032 [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the dairy sector include Yili Co., Ltd. (600887), Bright Dairy (600597), San Yuan (600429), New Dairy (002946), Huangshi Group (002329), Yantang Dairy (002732), Zhuangyuan Pasture (002910), and Pinwo Foods (300892) [1]