Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, suggesting that the white liquor sector is in a bottoming process and that food companies should seek structural opportunities from the bottom up [2][6]. Core Insights - The industry is expected to experience a recovery in consumption scenarios as it enters the September peak season, although year-on-year sales pressure remains significant. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand recovery during this peak season [2][6]. - Long-term investment value is seen in leading companies from a dividend and yield perspective, including high-end liquor brands and major consumer goods companies. The report highlights that institutional holdings are at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2][6]. - The white liquor sector is entering a destocking phase, with expectations of continued pressure on corporate reports in Q3. The report recommends key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, while also monitoring Wuliangye and others [2][6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 2.53% last week, with white liquor down 2.95%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.23 percentage points [5][29]. - The report notes that the white liquor price for Moutai is 1755 RMB per bottle, down 25 RMB week-on-week, and 1770 RMB per case, down 200 RMB week-on-week [7][13]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 2.41 percentage points from September 15 to September 19, with white liquor lagging by 2.83 percentage points [29][30]. 3. Key Company Updates - Companies like Jiangsu's Jiuziyuan are expected to see a slight recovery in consumption scenarios in September, although the overall market remains competitive [10]. - Shuanghui Development anticipates improved sales in the second half of the year due to internal channel and product optimizations, with stable profitability in the meat products segment [10].

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector increased by 0.14% on September 19, with Tianrun Dairy leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3820.09, down 0.3%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13070.86, down 0.04% [1] Stock Performance - Tianrun Dairy (600419) closed at 10.28, up 1.78% with a trading volume of 87,600 shares and a transaction value of 89.67 million yuan [1] - Dongpeng Beverage (605499) closed at 299.34, up 1.25% with a trading volume of 22,700 shares and a transaction value of 678 million yuan [1] - Yangyuan Beverage (603156) closed at 21.24, up 0.81% with a trading volume of 21,700 shares and a transaction value of 45.78 million yuan [1] - Other notable stocks include Xibu Muye (300106) at 11.49 (+0.70%) and Liziyuan (605337) at 13.27 (+0.53%) [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 157 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 138 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are actively buying [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Dongpeng Beverage saw a net inflow of 72.40 million yuan from institutional investors, while it experienced a net outflow of 51.02 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Xibu Muye had a net inflow of 20.37 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 2.29 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Tianrun Dairy had a net inflow of 4.29 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 5.49 million yuan from retail investors [3]

Market Overview - On September 18, the beverage and dairy sector declined by 0.98%, with Jiahua Food leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3831.66, down 1.15%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66, down 1.06% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the beverage and dairy sector showed the following closing prices and percentage changes: - Jiahua Food: 13.02, -5.58% - New Dairy: 17.21, -3.10% - Meibu Technology: 25.97, -3.06% - Huangshi Group: 3.82, -2.80% - Junyao Health: 7.98, -2.56% - Western Pastoral: 11.41, -2.48% - Zhuangyuan Pasture: 9.69, -2.42% - Tianrun Dairy: 10.10, -2.32% - Pinwu Food: 36.86, -2.12% - Sanyuan Co.: 4.76, -2.06% [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 1.57 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 2.35 billion yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for selected stocks includes: - Yili Co.: 36.15 million net inflow from institutions, -51.29 million from retail - Huanlejia: 16.11 million net inflow from institutions, -8.34 million from retail - Yangyuan Beverage: 6.44 million net inflow from institutions, -7.84 million from retail - Tianrun Dairy: 5.37 million net inflow from institutions, -0.28 million from retail - Bright Dairy: 3.31 million net inflow from institutions, 2.98 million from retail [2]

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry's stock price has shown volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 21.97% but a recent decline in the last five trading days by 5.29% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, New Dairy achieved a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 397 million yuan, up 33.76% [2] Stock Market Activity - As of September 18, New Dairy's stock price was 17.35 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 14.933 billion yuan. The stock experienced a net outflow of 98,400 yuan in principal funds, with significant selling pressure [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with a net buy of 67.0816 million yuan on April 10 [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 10, the number of shareholders for New Dairy was 16,800, a decrease of 3.70% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 3.84% to 50,691 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include various funds, with notable changes in holdings among major institutional investors [3]

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector increased by 0.22% on September 17, with Dongpeng Beverage leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.34, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13215.46, up 1.16% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Dongpeng Beverage (code: 6655599) closed at 296.88, up 1.40% with a trading volume of 17,200 lots and a transaction value of 510 million [1] - New Dairy (code: 002946) closed at 17.76, up 1.02% with a trading volume of 72,800 lots and a transaction value of 130 million [1] - Yili Group (code: 600887) remained unchanged at 28.08 with a trading volume of 483,200 lots and a transaction value of 1.358 billion [1] - Bright Dairy (code: 600597) closed at 8.65, down 0.23% with a trading volume of 100,900 lots and a transaction value of 87.26 million [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 283 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 253 million [2] - The main funds showed varying net inflows and outflows across different stocks, with VIVI (code: 600300) seeing a net inflow of 9.9628 million from main funds [3] - New Dairy (code: 002946) had a net outflow of 3.6952 million from main funds, while it attracted a net inflow of 7.8254 million from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - Mixue Ice City is set to enter the U.S. market, with its first store located in Manhattan, New York, indicating a significant expansion strategy into overseas markets [1][3]. Group 1: Store Location and Market Potential - The first store is situated at 266 Canal Street, previously a Cantonese restaurant, and is strategically located at the intersection of Chinatown and SoHo, targeting both the Chinese community and tourists [1][3]. - The store covers an area of 2,100 square feet (approximately 195 square meters) with a ten-year lease, and the rent is $165 per square foot (approximately 1,175 RMB) [3]. Group 2: Operational Challenges and Strategies - The process of securing a store in the U.S. involves multiple stakeholders, including property owners and due diligence companies, which can complicate the leasing process [3][4]. - Mixue Ice City is optimizing its store structure, with a reported total of 4,733 overseas stores by mid-2025, an increase of 128 stores year-on-year, but a decrease of 162 stores compared to the end of 2024 [3][4]. Group 3: International Expansion and Performance - The company is enhancing its overseas support system, with plans to train international employees at its headquarters in China starting in the second half of 2024 [4]. - Recent international expansions include the opening of a store in Almaty, Kazakhstan, with first-month revenue exceeding 430,000 RMB, and a procurement order for 4 billion RMB worth of coffee beans in Brazil [4][6]. - Upcoming store openings include locations in Los Angeles and Flushing, New York, indicating continued growth in the U.S. market [4][6]. Group 4: Cost Considerations - Mixue Ice City faces higher operational costs in overseas markets, including raw materials, labor, and rent, which may limit its pricing strategy compared to its successful low-cost model in China [6].

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry's stock price has shown fluctuations with a year-to-date increase of 26.12%, while recent trading indicates a slight decline over the past five days [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, New Dairy achieved a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 33.76% [2] Stock Market Activity - As of September 17, New Dairy's stock price was 17.94 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 15.441 billion yuan. The stock experienced a trading volume of 50.6096 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.34% [1] - The stock has been on the龙虎榜 once this year, with the last appearance on April 10, where it recorded a net purchase of 67.0816 million yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of September 10, the number of shareholders for New Dairy was 16,800, a decrease of 3.70% from the previous period, with an average of 50,691 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 3.84% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include various funds, with notable changes in holdings among them [3]

Summary of the Conference Call for New Dairy Industry Company Overview - **Company**: New Dairy Industry - **Industry**: Liquid Milk Industry in China Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - New Dairy Industry's net profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 27.5% year-on-year, with a net profit margin improvement of 1.6 percentage points [2][3] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a slight revenue growth, with profits up by 48.5% year-on-year [3] - Q2 2025 saw a revenue increase of 5% year-on-year, with net profit growth of 27.5% and a net profit margin increase of 1.6 percentage points [3] Market Trends - The Chinese liquid milk market is expected to reach a scale of 240 billion yuan by 2024, with a five-year compound growth rate of 1.5% [2][6] - Low-temperature milk has significant growth potential due to its alignment with health and functional consumption trends, despite current low penetration rates [6][8] - The average penetration rate for low-temperature milk in China was 39% in 2023, compared to over 90% in developed countries [6] Industry Dynamics - The low-temperature milk sector is characterized by regional fragmentation, with major players like Bright Dairy in East China and New Hope Dairy in Southwest China [9] - New Dairy Industry is expanding its market share through strategic acquisitions and resource integration [9][10] Competitive Advantages - New Dairy Industry has strong product capabilities, supply chain management, and brand influence [10] - The company implements a "Fresh Cube" strategy, focusing on high freshness and rapid product iteration [10] - The D to C (Direct to Consumer) channel has increased to 20% of sales, with plans to reach 30% in five years, enhancing profit margins and market responsiveness [12][13] Supply Chain Optimization - The company has a well-distributed network of quality dairy farms, allowing flexibility in responding to market fluctuations [12] - New Life Cold Chain, a subsidiary, supports the company by ensuring 90% of fresh milk products reach consumers on the same day [12] Future Growth Strategy - New Dairy Industry aims to maintain stable growth in the second half of 2025, with low-temperature products expected to outperform ambient products [14] - The company plans to focus on high-end low-temperature milk and functional yogurt, projecting revenues of over 11 billion yuan and profits of 720 million yuan for 2025 [14] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate of approximately 20% in profits over the next three years [14] Investment Outlook - The company is viewed positively for its future development, with projected P/E ratios of 21 and 18 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating potential for growth compared to industry averages [15] Additional Important Insights - The cold chain infrastructure in China has significantly improved, with refrigerated truck numbers increasing from 180,000 to 380,000 and cold storage capacity rising from 131 million tons to 220 million tons between 2018 and 2022 [7] - The company is actively engaging in consumer education and promoting student milk programs to cultivate consumption habits [7][9]

Market Overview - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a decline of 1.06% on September 15, with Huanlejia leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3860.5, down 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13005.77, up 0.63% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the beverage and dairy sector showed varied performance, with the following notable movements: - Huangshi Group (002329) rose by 1.55% to close at 3.93, with a trading volume of 298,800 shares and a turnover of 116 million yuan [1] - Huanlejia (300997) fell by 4.83% to close at 19.51, with a trading volume of 151,700 shares and a turnover of 300 million yuan [2] - Yili Group (600887) saw a slight decrease of 0.07%, closing at 28.23, with a trading volume of 591,300 shares and a turnover of 1.673 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow - The beverage and dairy sector experienced a net outflow of 405 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 375 million yuan [2] - The following stocks had significant capital flow: - Huangshi Group had a net inflow of 15.88 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow from retail investors [3] - Xibu Muye (300106) had a net inflow of 11.18 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow from retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - New Hope Dairy's stock price has shown volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 23.23% but a recent decline of 7.35% over the past five trading days [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to June 2025, New Hope Dairy achieved a revenue of 5.526 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.01% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 397 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 33.76% [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 10, 2025, the number of shareholders for New Hope Dairy was 16,800, a decrease of 3.70% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 3.84% to 50,691 shares [2] Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, New Hope Dairy has distributed a total of 676 million yuan in dividends, with 448 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the third-largest circulating shareholder was China Europe Value Select Mixed Fund A, holding 5.9028 million shares, a decrease of 1.5897 million shares from the previous period [3] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited entered as a new shareholder, holding 4.4983 million shares [3] - Hua'an Anxin Consumer Mixed Fund A increased its holdings by 477,600 shares, ranking as the fifth-largest circulating shareholder [3]