Core Viewpoint - The company, New Dairy Industry (002946.SZ), has demonstrated a better market performance than the industry average despite the overall downturn in the dairy sector, particularly through its focus on low-temperature milk products. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be 10.665 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 2.93%, while the dairy product segment still achieved a growth of 0.83% [2] - The overall sales of dairy products across all channels fell by 2.7% in the past year, with major competitors like Mengniu (2319.HK) and Yili (600887.SH) experiencing revenue declines exceeding 10% and 12% respectively in their liquid milk segments [4] - New Dairy Industry achieved a net profit of 538 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, attributed to a higher proportion of low-temperature milk and declining raw milk costs [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The low-temperature milk segment has seen its penetration rate increase from 23% in 2020 to 41% in 2024, with nearly 60% of households in first-tier cities purchasing fresh milk more than twice a week [8] - Over half of New Dairy Industry's revenue comes from low-temperature products, capitalizing on the growth opportunities in this niche market [9] - The company has experienced a rise in gross margin to 28.36%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points over the past four years, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [12] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The low-temperature milk market remains competitive, with no clear leader, as major brands are rapidly expanding their market shares [13] - In the second half of 2024, Guangming (600594.SH) is expected to catch up to Yili in market share, while Mengniu's high-end low-temperature brand "Daily Fresh" is gaining traction through aggressive marketing [14] - Price wars are looming, putting pressure on New Dairy Industry's mid-to-high-end products, as promotional expenses increased by 100 million yuan, while revenue growth for the "24-hour" series slowed from 40% to 15% year-on-year [15] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - New Dairy Industry has pursued a national expansion strategy through acquisitions, having spent over 3.3 billion yuan on acquisitions since its listing, which has allowed it to operate 15 sub-brands [24][25] - The company is now focusing on "internal growth" and aims for a compound annual growth rate of double digits and a 10% reduction in debt ratio over the next five years [30] - The company plans to enhance operational quality in existing businesses while remaining open to acquisition opportunities, particularly in the growing low-temperature milk markets in second and third-tier cities [31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main revenue remains stable, with a significant improvement in profitability. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 10.665 billion and 538 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 3% and an increase of 25% [5] - The low-temperature product category continues to perform well, with expectations for new products to drive further growth. Revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other categories for 2024 were 9.836 billion, 71 million, and 758 million yuan, respectively, with liquid milk showing a stable performance [6] - Direct sales channels are growing rapidly, particularly in the East China region, with direct sales revenue reaching 6.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11% [8] - The company aims to double its net profit margin over the next five years, focusing on expanding its core business and enhancing corporate value [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue was 10.665 billion yuan, with a net profit of 538 million yuan, reflecting a 25% increase year-on-year. The Q1 2025 figures showed a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan and a net profit of 133 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 0.4% and 48% respectively [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 28.36%, increasing by 1.5 percentage points, while the net margin was 5.15%, up by 1.2 percentage points [5] Product Performance - The low-temperature milk segment, including fresh milk and yogurt, achieved mid-to-high single-digit growth, with the "24-hour" series seeing over 15% revenue growth [6] - New product launches contributed to maintaining a double-digit revenue share, with the "初心" series and "活润" brand both achieving significant growth [6][7] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue reached 6.225 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11%, while online sales through platforms like Douyin and JD.com grew by 32% [8] - The company's self-developed "鲜活 go" platform has shown significant growth in user retention and repurchase rates [8] Profit Forecast - The company projects EPS of 0.78, 0.92, and 1.03 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 19, and 17 times [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated a significant profit release exceeding expectations, with a continuous breakthrough in the low-temperature product category [1] - The main business revenue remains stable, and profitability has improved significantly, with a notable increase in net profit margin [5] - The company aims to enhance its core business and achieve a doubling of net profit margin over the next five years [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 10.665 billion and 538 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 3% and an increase of 25% [5] - For Q1 2025, total revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 2.625 billion and 133 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.4% and 48% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 28.36% and 5.15%, respectively, with improvements noted in Q1 2025 [5] Product Performance - The liquid milk segment generated revenue of 9.836 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1% [6] - Low-temperature products, including fresh milk and yogurt, achieved mid to high single-digit growth, with the "24-hour" series seeing over 15% revenue growth [6][7] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue reached 6.225 billion yuan in 2024, up 11% year-on-year, while distribution revenue declined by 13% [8] - Online sales through platforms like Douyin and JD.com generated 1.161 billion yuan, marking a 32% increase [8] Earnings Forecast - The company projects EPS of 0.78, 0.92, and 1.03 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 19, and 17 times [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 10.665 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 538 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.8% [3][10] - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 are forecasted to be 28.36% and 5.04%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [3] - The company has optimized its management expenses and reduced financial costs, contributing to a decrease in the financial expense ratio [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 251.6 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.94%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 28.08% [4] - The company's revenue from liquid milk is expected to grow against the trend, while the overall revenue decline is attributed to the divestment of the yogurt business and contraction in trade operations [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 262.5 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 48.46% year-on-year [7] Product and Market Insights - The high-end "24-hour" series is expected to continue to grow, with revenue increasing by over 15% year-on-year [5] - The company has expanded its delivery coverage to 141 cities and regions, and the number of image stores has surpassed 500 [5] - The direct sales model has seen an increase in revenue, with direct sales accounting for 62.83% of total sales, up by 6.02 percentage points [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.197 billion yuan, 11.963 billion yuan, and 13.005 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 685 million yuan, 838 million yuan, and 1.001 billion yuan [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.80 yuan in 2025 to 1.16 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 22 to 15 [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Views - The company has shown a steady improvement in profitability, with a focus on its low-temperature business continuing to grow positively. The report highlights the successful implementation of its "fresh strategy" to enhance its fresh milk business and optimize its product structure, which is expected to drive future growth [7][6]. - The financial performance for 2024 met expectations, with a total revenue of 10.665 billion and a net profit of 538 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [7][6]. - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 687 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 28%, and further growth in subsequent years [7][6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is reported at 10,665 million, with a slight decline of 2.9% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 2,625 million, with a growth of 0.4% [6][7]. - The net profit for 2024 is 538 million, with a significant increase of 24.8% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a net profit of 133 million, reflecting a growth of 48.5% [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 28.36% in 2024, up by 1.49 percentage points, attributed to lower raw milk prices and an increased share of low-temperature products [7][6]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 687 million, 839 million, and 974 million respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 16% [6][7].

Core Insights - New Dairy achieved a revenue of 10.665 billion yuan and a net profit of 538 million yuan in the 2024 annual report, marking five consecutive years of double-digit growth [1] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 133 million yuan, up 48.46% year-on-year [1] - The company continues to implement its "Fresh Cube Strategy" to enhance core business and drive consumer demand amidst a slowing dairy market [2][3] Financial Performance - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.491 billion yuan, with a sales net profit margin increasing by 1.17 percentage points [1] - The asset-liability ratio decreased by 5.86 percentage points compared to the beginning of the period [1] - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 5.25%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company remains committed to the "Fresh Cube Strategy," focusing on core product categories, with low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt showing mid-to-high single-digit growth [2] - New Dairy is actively pursuing product innovation and market expansion, with new product revenue maintaining double-digit growth for four consecutive years [2] - The company aims to enhance its core product growth capabilities and profitability through continuous innovation and market adaptation [2][3] Product Development - The high-end series of "24-hour" fresh milk saw a revenue increase of over 15% year-on-year [2] - The "Original" yogurt line has been successful in addressing health trends, contributing to double-digit growth across the series [2] - The "Active" yogurt brand has gained positive reviews and achieved double-digit growth by aligning with health-conscious consumer trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - The dairy industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, benefiting downstream companies like New Dairy Industry, which reported significant profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2024 due to favorable raw milk prices, operational efficiency, and high-margin product offerings [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, New Dairy Industry achieved operating revenue of 10.665 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 538 million yuan, an increase of 24.80% [2]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 2.625 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.42%, and net profit of 133 million yuan, up 48.46% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for liquid milk and dairy products manufacturing in 2024 was 29.91%, an increase of 1.12% compared to the previous year, attributed to a decrease in operating costs due to lower raw milk procurement prices [2][4]. Raw Milk Price Trends - The price of raw milk in 2024 is on a downward trend, with some companies reporting a decline of over 6% year-on-year [4]. - New Dairy Industry's raw milk procurement cost decreased from 2.654 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.434 billion yuan in 2024, a reduction of approximately 220 million yuan [4]. Market Dynamics - The dairy industry is experiencing accelerated consolidation, with some small and medium-sized farms exiting the market [4]. - Despite current challenges, New Dairy Industry remains optimistic about the long-term potential of the dairy market in China, citing low penetration rates and increasing consumer health awareness as growth drivers [8]. Institutional Investment - Several institutions, including China Industrial Bank and Ping An Bank, have increased their holdings in New Dairy Industry, indicating positive market sentiment [6][7].

Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - The company continues to deepen its "Fresh Cube Strategy," focusing on core product categories to enhance enterprise value and steadily implement its five-year strategic plan [1] - In 2024, the main business revenue is expected to remain stable, with a significant increase in net profit and a notable decrease in the asset-liability ratio [1] - Low-temperature fresh milk and low-temperature yogurt achieved mid-to-high single-digit growth in 2024, with low-temperature categories continuing to increase their market share [2] Group 2: Regional Growth and Market Opportunities - The East China region shows strong growth potential due to a higher proportion of low-temperature products and a favorable consumer mindset [3] - The company is actively expanding in the South and North China regions, focusing on product innovation and channel strategies to enhance market share [3] Group 3: Sales and Marketing Strategies - The company emphasizes the importance of new product development and promotion, particularly for core categories, to meet consumer demands for functionality and emotional value [4] - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) channels are a core strategic focus, with efforts to enhance channel capabilities and user experience [4] Group 4: Financial Management and Future Plans - Sales expense rates are currently at a normal level, with plans for brand-building initiatives that balance profitability [4] - The company has a stable capital expenditure plan focused on technology improvements and equipment updates, with a strategy of "internal growth as primary, acquisitions as secondary" [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20 yuan [4][8]. Core Views - The company has exceeded profit expectations, with significant improvement momentum still present. The focus on low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt has driven strong growth in these segments, despite challenges in the ambient milk market [8][4]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 10.665 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 538 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.8% [2][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.42% year-on-year, with a net profit of 133 million yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 48.5% [2][4]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Indicators**: - Total revenue: 10,665 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: -2.9% - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 538 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: 24.8% - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.62 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio (PE): 28 times [4][8]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: - Total revenue: 10,987 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: 3.0% - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 675 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rate: 25.6% - EPS: 0.78 yuan - PE: 22 times [4][8]. - **2026 and 2027 Projections**: - 2026 total revenue: 11,605 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.6% - 2027 total revenue: 12,281 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.8% - Net profit for 2026: 794 million yuan, with a growth rate of 17.6% - Net profit for 2027: 910 million yuan, with a growth rate of 14.6% [4][8]. Market Performance - The company’s stock price as of April 24, 2025, is 17.24 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 148.38 billion yuan [4][8]. - The company has shown resilience in its core business, with a focus on improving revenue quality by reducing the scale of trade and other businesses [8][4].

Core Insights - New Dairy achieved a revenue of 10.665 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 0.66% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.80% to 538 million yuan, marking five consecutive years of double-digit growth [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan, up 0.42% year-on-year, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 48.46% [1] - The company is in the second year of its new five-year strategic plan, focusing on boosting dairy consumption amid a challenging market environment [1][3] Financial Performance - Total assets at the end of 2024 were approximately 8.879 billion yuan, down 0.66% from the previous year [2] - Net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 19.49% to approximately 3.055 billion yuan [2] - Basic and diluted earnings per share rose by 24% to 0.62 yuan [2] Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes the "Fresh Cube Strategy" to enhance core business and drive consumer demand, focusing on fresh dairy products [1][3] - New Dairy is committed to product innovation and channel transformation to adapt to changing consumer trends [3][4] - The company has made significant investments in supply chain excellence and has been recognized for its contributions to quality dairy production [4] Innovation and Technology - New Dairy has maintained a double-digit revenue contribution from new products for four consecutive years, with its "24-hour" fresh milk series seeing over 15% growth [5] - The company is advancing its digital transformation through self-developed platforms to enhance operational efficiency [5][6] - New Dairy is exploring innovative marketing strategies, including live-streaming, to engage with consumers [7] Market Positioning - The company is expanding its direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, achieving nationwide delivery capabilities and enhancing customer service [6] - New Dairy's brand initiatives focus on health and nutrition, aiming to create immersive consumer experiences [7] - The dairy market in China is expected to continue its steady growth, with a shift towards low-temperature and functional products [7][8] Future Outlook - New Dairy plans to continue leveraging its "Fresh Cube Strategy" to drive revenue growth and improve profit margins [8] - The company aims to strengthen its core business through technology and regional development, contributing to the revitalization of the Chinese dairy industry [8]