一、监事会会议召开情况 第三届监事会第九次会议决议公告 本公司及监事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完 整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 新希望乳业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）于 2024 年 12 月 26 日以邮件方式发出召开第三届监事会第九次会议的通知，并于 2024 年 12 月 31 日在成都市锦江区金石路 366 号公司四楼会议室以现场及通讯相结合的方 式召开了第三届监事会第九次会议。会议应出席监事 3 人，实际出席会议监事 3 人，会议由监事会主席张薇女士主持。本次会议的召开符合法律、行政法规和《公 司章程》的规定。 证券代码：002946 证券简称：新乳业 公告编号：2025-004 债券代码：128142 债券简称：新乳转债 新希望乳业股份有限公司 1、新希望乳业股份有限公司第三届监事会第九次会议决议。 1 特此公告。 新希望乳业股份有限公司 二、监事会会议审议情况 会议审议以下议案，并形成如下决议： 1、审议并通过《关于2025年度日常关联交易预计的议案》 表决结果：3票赞成，0票反对，0票弃权。本议案尚需提交股东大会审议。 具体内容详见公司同日刊登于《中国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its strategic direction through 2025, focusing on its core business of low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, which have significant growth potential compared to ambient products [1]. - The company aims to enhance its value and net profit margin through structural optimization, which has already contributed to a 2.4 percentage point increase in gross margin year-on-year as of Q3 2024 [1]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 564 million, 671 million, and 768 million yuan, respectively, reflecting an increase of 2.47%, 1.25%, and 3.44% from previous estimates [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company’s low-temperature business is performing well, with strong growth expected in the eastern region, while the western region's ambient business is anticipated to recover due to improved end-demand and pricing competition [1]. - The company has a robust management capability in mergers and acquisitions, having developed a multi-dimensional management approach for acquired brands and supply chains [1]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 10,006 million yuan in 2022 to 12,305 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.46% [5]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 362 million yuan in 2022 to 768 million yuan in 2026, with a notable growth rate of 14.34% in 2026 [10]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 0.65, 0.78, and 0.89 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22X, 19X, and 16X [1][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16.14% by 2026, indicating strong profitability [10].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target PE of 22.1X for 2024, 18.4X for 2025, and 15.3X for 2026 [110] Core Views - The company is focused on its "Fresh Cube" strategy, aiming for double-digit revenue growth and a doubling of net profit margin over the next five years [10][110] - The company's low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt products are its core competitive advantages, contributing over 50% to its main business revenue [106][151] - The company has a strong ability to innovate and launch new products, with new products accounting for double-digit percentages of revenue [25][106] - The company's DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channel has shown significant growth, contributing to the rapid growth of its low-temperature product categories [26][106] Company Overview - The company is a regional dairy leader, focusing on low-temperature products and implementing the "Fresh Cube" strategy to enhance profitability [104][115] - The company has a stable ownership structure, with Liu Chang and Liu Yonghao as the actual controllers, holding 65.07% and 15.61% of the shares respectively [3] - The company has achieved steady growth in revenue and profitability, with a gross margin of 29.09% and a net margin of 5.97% in the first three quarters of 2024, up 1.67pct and 1.20pct year-on-year [8][104] - The company has a nationwide presence through three rounds of acquisitions, focusing on low-temperature milk markets [121][129] Industry Overview - The dairy industry is expected to recover in 2025, with supply and demand for raw milk improving [20][148] - The industry is highly concentrated, with the top two players, Yili and Mengniu, holding 24.2% and 21.3% of the market share respectively [143] - The industry is expected to grow steadily, driven by increasing health awareness and technological advancements in dairy products [16][143] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong competitive advantage in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, with key products like "24 Hours" and "Weipin" achieving double-digit growth [30][151] - The company has a robust supply chain and cold chain logistics capabilities, supported by its parent company, New Hope Group [106][165] - The company's DTC channel, including home delivery, self-subscription, image stores, and e-commerce, has shown strong growth, with overall revenue increasing by over 15% in 2023 [169][170] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2024 is expected to reach 11.203 billion yuan, with a net profit of 553 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.42% [110][184] - The company's gross margin and net margin have been steadily increasing, with a gross margin of 29.09% and a net margin of 5.97% in the first three quarters of 2024 [8][104] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 16.58% in 2023 to 18.49% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [50][196]

Group 1: Company Overview and Strategy - New Hope Dairy is focusing on core areas and markets to enhance market share and brand influence through regional expansion and product innovation [1] - The company is committed to optimizing product structure and cost management to improve net profit margins [1] Group 2: Low-Temperature Products - Low-temperature products contribute over 50% to the main business, with low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt showing high single-digit growth in the first three quarters [2] - The company anticipates continued growth in low-temperature categories due to increasing consumer demand and acceptance, particularly among younger generations [2] Group 3: Brand Management - The company employs a dual-brand strategy, combining a parent brand with local brands to leverage strong brand loyalty in low-temperature dairy products [2] - Nationally recognized products are being developed under unified brand management, exemplified by brands like "24 Hours," "Live Moisture," and "Original Intention" [2] Group 4: Raw Milk Price and Margin Improvement - Current raw milk prices are relatively low due to multiple factors, including supply-demand dynamics and strategic partnerships with suppliers [2] - The increase in gross margin is attributed to product structure adjustments and cost optimization, with plans to strengthen core business areas to sustain margin growth [2] Group 5: Milk Source Structure - The current milk source structure consists of approximately 30% from owned farms, 30% from strategically invested farms, and 40% from social farms and cooperatives [2] - The company aims to maintain this structure to support the execution of its "Fresh Cube Strategy" [2]

Summary of the Conference Call for New Dairy Industry Company Overview - The conference call pertains to New Dairy Industry, focusing on its performance and outlook in the dairy sector. Key Points and Arguments Industry Performance - In October and November, terminal sales did not show significant recovery, with the annual goal still set for positive revenue growth and net profit margin improvement [2][3] - There is a divergence in opinions regarding the timing of raw milk price recovery, with expectations ranging from mid-next year to as late as 2026 [4] - The company maintains a stable milk sourcing policy, with over 60% of milk sourced from self-controlled sources, and only 10% from temporary demand adjustments [5] Financial Performance - The gross profit margin significantly improved in Q3, primarily due to product structure optimization and cost contributions. However, raw milk price recovery is expected to impact gross margins next year, while reduced sales expenses may enhance net profit margins [2][7] - If raw milk prices remain low in the first half of next year, it will positively contribute to gross margin improvement [8] - The company has experienced minimal impairment in bulk powder due to a flexible milk sourcing structure and efficient inventory management [10] Regional Performance - The East China region showed significant revenue growth, driven by new product launches and supply chain optimization, with low-temperature fresh milk growth nearing triple digits [11][15] Product Strategy - The liquid milk business structure includes approximately 50% low-temperature products, with a focus on low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, which have shown strong growth [12] - Product structure optimization contributed significantly to the gross margin increase, with low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt being the main contributors [13] Future Outlook - The company aims to maintain continuous positive revenue growth and accelerate net profit margin improvement in line with its five-year plan, focusing on low-temperature products [14] - The company plans to continue its conservative capital expenditure strategy while maintaining high capacity utilization [19] Competitive Advantages - The company has established competitive advantages in the low-temperature dairy product sector through strategic focus, supply chain optimization, and new product development [20] Channel Strategy - The company has adapted to changes in channel structure, increasing collaboration with emerging channels and focusing on direct-to-consumer strategies to enhance profitability [21] Industry Challenges - The overall consumer goods and dairy industry faces significant pressure this year, but the company is committed to achieving its five-year plan and annual goals [25] Additional Important Information - The company is actively managing its financial expenses, aiming to reduce its debt ratio from 72% at the beginning of the year to 66% by Q3 [18] - The company is also addressing the issue of outstanding payments related to its "one yogurt cow" case, with plans to recover over 20 million yuan [16]

Core Insights - New Dairy reported a decrease in the number of shareholders to 17,580 as of November 10, representing a reduction of 1,697 shareholders or a decline of 8.80% compared to the previous period [1] - This marks the fourth consecutive decline in the number of shareholders, with a cumulative decrease of 19.62%, indicating a trend of increasing concentration of shares [1] - The latest stock price of New Dairy is 13.63 yuan, reflecting an increase of 2.87%, and since the concentration of shares began, the stock price has risen by a total of 10.45% [1] - Over the specific trading days, the stock experienced 15 increases and 11 decreases, including one instance of hitting the daily limit down [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that New Dairy has experienced a continuous decline in the number of shareholders, with a reported decrease of 1,697 shareholders as of November 10, resulting in a total of 17,580 shareholders, marking an 8.80% decrease compared to the previous period [1] - This decline in shareholder numbers has occurred for four consecutive periods [1] - As of the latest report, New Dairy's stock price is 13.63 yuan, reflecting an increase of 2.87%, and a cumulative increase of 10.90% since the concentration of shares began [1] Group 2 - The stock has shown a performance of six increases and two decreases over the specific trading days [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 8.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 474 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.37%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 507 million yuan, up 29.5% year-on-year [4][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.82% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 177 million yuan, an increase of 22.92%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 193 million yuan, up 19.73% year-on-year [4][6]. - The decline in revenue in Q3 2024 was primarily due to the drag from trade-related businesses and the impact of one yogurt product being removed from the financial statements. Despite the pressure on demand, the company's product structure continues to optimize [4][5]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin increased by 1.16 percentage points year-on-year to 5.81% for the first three quarters of 2024, with a gross profit margin up by 1.67 percentage points to 29.09%. The expense ratio increased by 0.38 percentage points to 21.49% [5]. - In Q3 2024, the net profit margin rose by 1.38 percentage points to 6.36%, and the gross profit margin increased by 2.4 percentage points to 28.83%. The expense ratio for this quarter was 20.58%, up 1.01 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company is focusing on its "Fresh Cube" strategy, which is expected to drive positive revenue growth for the year, alongside an acceleration in profitability. The company also declared its first interim dividend of 30.12 million yuan, reflecting confidence in future profit growth and enhancing shareholder returns [6]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 551 million yuan for 2024 and 685 million yuan for 2025, corresponding to EPS of 0.64 yuan and 0.80 yuan, respectively. The PE ratios are projected to be 21 times for 2024 and 17 times for 2025 [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main business continues to grow, with improved profitability. The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 23% to 177 million yuan [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 increased by 2 percentage points to 28.83%, attributed to a higher proportion of premium products and new products, alongside a decrease in raw milk prices [1] - The company is focused on its five-year plan to double its net profit margin, emphasizing the "Fresh Cube Strategy" to enhance market penetration [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 8.150 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 474 million yuan, an increase of 24% [1] - The company’s Q3 2024 revenue was 2.785 billion yuan, with a net profit of 177 million yuan, reflecting a 23% increase year-on-year [1] Product and Market Strategy - The company’s low-temperature products showed stable growth, with low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt revenues increasing by approximately 10% year-on-year [1] - The company is enhancing its product structure by increasing the proportion of new products and optimizing its sales channels, particularly through direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels [1] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 0.63, 0.76, and 0.87 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20, 17, and 15 times [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [1]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience with a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, indicating improved profitability [1][2]. - The low-temperature product category has experienced double-digit growth, while the overall revenue has been temporarily impacted by adjustments in the consolidation scope [2]. - The company is committed to its new five-year strategic plan aimed at strengthening core business and enhancing corporate value, with a target to double net profit margin within five years [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 470 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 29.1%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw milk prices and product mix optimization [2]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 6%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focused on its "Fresh Cube Strategy" and aims to enhance its position in the low-temperature dairy market through innovation and regional development [3]. - The company has secured 60% of its raw milk supply through self-owned and equity-held sources, aligning with its strategic goals [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 540 million yuan, 640 million yuan, and 760 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63 yuan, 0.75 yuan, and 0.88 yuan [3][4]. - The dynamic PE ratios are projected to be 20 times, 17 times, and 14 times for the respective years [3].