I aim to invest in companies with perfect qualitative attributes, buy them at an attractive price based on fundamentals, and hold them forever. I hope to publish articles covering such companies approximately 3 times per week, with extensive quarterly follow-ups and constant updates.I manage a concentrated portfolio targeted at avoiding losers and maximizing exposure to big winners. This means that often I'll rate great companies at a 'Hold' because their growth opportunity is below my threshold, or their d ...

I aim to invest in companies with perfect qualitative attributes, buy them at an attractive price based on fundamentals, and hold them forever. I hope to publish articles covering such companies approximately 3 times per week, with extensive quarterly follow-ups and constant updates.I manage a concentrated portfolio targeted at avoiding losers and maximizing exposure to big winners. This means that often I'll rate great companies at a 'Hold' because their growth opportunity is below my threshold, or their d ...

Company Overview - Adobe provides content creation, document management, and digital marketing software and services, operating in three segments: digital media content creation, digital experience for marketing solutions, and publishing for legacy products [2] Financial Metrics - Adobe's Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio is 20.49, significantly below the industry average by 0.19x, suggesting potential undervaluation [3] - The Price to Book (P/B) ratio stands at 11.69, which is well below the industry average by 0.58x, indicating possible undervaluation based on book value [3] - Adobe's Price to Sales (P/S) ratio is 6.14, which is 0.26x the industry average, suggesting undervaluation based on sales performance [3] - The Return on Equity (ROE) is 15.26%, which is 7.29% above the industry average, highlighting efficient use of equity to generate profits [3] Profitability - Adobe has an Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) of $2.46 billion, which is 2.51x above the industry average, indicating stronger profitability and robust cash flow generation [7] - The gross profit of $5.35 billion is 2.94x above the industry average, indicating stronger profitability and higher earnings from core operations [7] Revenue Growth - Adobe's revenue growth rate is 10.72%, which is significantly below the industry average of 19.05%, suggesting potential struggles in generating increased sales volume [7] Debt Management - The debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio for Adobe is 0.56, indicating a balanced financial structure and a reasonable level of debt while leveraging equity financing [10]

Group 1 - Major earnings reports are scheduled for next week, including Broadcom and Costco on Thursday, and Adobe and Synopsys on Wednesday [1] - Tuesday is expected to be the busiest day with over 10 companies reporting, including AutoZone and Ferguson Enterprises [1]

Core Viewpoint - Adobe is currently in Phase 18 of its Adhishthana cycle, which began in May 2025, and has experienced a decline of approximately 25% since then, leading to divided investor sentiment ahead of earnings on December 10 [1][6]. Group 1: Adhishthana Cycle Analysis - The Guna Triads, consisting of Phases 14, 15, and 16, are crucial for determining if Adobe can achieve a Nirvana move in Phase 18, which requires a sustained bullish structure known as Satoguna [2][4]. - Adobe entered Phase 14 in June 2023, but throughout its triads until October 2024, it exhibited consolidation and inconsistent rallies, indicating a lack of meaningful bullish structure [4][5]. - The absence of Satoguna in the triads has confirmed that Adobe would not achieve a Nirvana move in Phase 18, leading to consistent underperformance since entering this phase [5][6]. Group 2: Investor Outlook - With earnings approaching, volatility is expected to increase; however, the weak triad foundation suggests that Phase 18 will not yield a Nirvana move, and any potential rallies are unlikely to be sustained [6][7]. - The monthly charts indicate that Adobe is still in a descending phase of its Himalayan formation, suggesting that aggressive buying is not advisable at this time [7]. - The options market reflects this sentiment, with heavy call-writing open interest indicating expectations of capped upside and multiple resistance levels [7].

Core Insights - Adobe Inc. is a leading software company known for its creative and digital marketing solutions, competing with Microsoft and Salesforce [1] - Recent analyst reports indicate concerns about Adobe's growth trajectory, particularly with the decision to stop breaking out its Digital Media Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) [2][6] Analyst Perspectives - Barclays analyst Saket Kalia set a price target of $415 for Adobe, suggesting a potential increase of 26.24% from its current price of $328.73 [2][6] - Citi analyst Tyler Radke interprets the reporting change as a sign of decelerating growth in the Creative Cloud segment, projecting a 10% ARR growth for fiscal year 2026 and a slight decline in profit margins due to increased AI development spending [3][4] - Radke has adjusted his price target for Adobe from $400 to $366, focusing on the company's strategy with Semrush and its Digital Experience lineup [4] Stock Performance - Adobe's stock price is currently at $328.73, reflecting a 0.60% increase, with a market cap of approximately $137.61 billion [5] - Over the past year, Adobe's stock has experienced significant volatility, with a high of $557.90 and a low of $311.59 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Dow Jones Index remains stable and is close to its all-time high as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and significant earnings reports from companies like Adobe, Oracle, and Costco [1] Company Summaries - Adobe is expected to report its earnings soon, which could influence market sentiment and investor decisions [1] - Oracle's upcoming earnings report is also anticipated to be a key factor for investors, potentially impacting stock performance [1] - Costco's earnings announcement is another critical event that investors are closely monitoring, as it may provide insights into consumer spending trends [1]

Core Thesis - Adobe Inc. is experiencing a paradox of strong operational performance while trading at a depressed valuation, with a record Q2 2025 revenue of $5.87 billion and a raised full-year guidance [2][5] Financial Performance - Adobe's trailing and forward P/E ratios are 19.96 and 13.70 respectively, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers like Microsoft [1][5] - The company maintains robust cash flow and elite profitability, with gross margins near 90% and return on equity (ROE) above 50% [2] Market Concerns - There are fears that generative AI and low-cost competitors like Canva, Affinity, and Figma may undermine Adobe's dominance in the creative tools market [3][6] - The market's focus on potential disruption has led to a disconnect between Adobe's strong fundamentals and its stock performance, which has depreciated about 13.9% since May 2025 [6] Strategic Initiatives - In response to AI-driven disruption, Adobe has launched Firefly, a proprietary generative AI ecosystem that integrates into its flagship applications, positioning the company as a central hub for creative workflows [4] - Firefly is built on licensed, commercially safe data and aggregates third-party AI models, which helps to neutralize competitive threats while preserving Adobe's pricing power [4] Business Structure - Adobe's business is supported by two main pillars: Digital Media, which includes Creative and Document Cloud with $18 billion in recurring revenue, and Digital Experience, a $6 billion enterprise segment, providing a resilient and diversified foundation [3]

美股周四尾盘，Adobe（ADBE）股价上涨0.6%。该公司暗示增长正在放缓。花旗集团将Adobe目标价 从400美元下调至366美元。 来源：环球市场播报 ...

Adobe stock price has been in a freefall in the past few years as it continued to underperform the broader stock market. ADBE was trading at $325 today, Dec. 4, down by over 50% from its pandemic high... ...